General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

realdanbreen

So Lowry & Mattie are both shoo in's how many seats does that leave, 3 ?

honeybear

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

Very much not an FG supporter but to me Kate O Connell is quite a formidable politician if her sister is half her mould might actually be considered despite her party. A quick search says living in Cashel for 12 years jaysus if that's a plant by FG was some slow operation :pac:

I’m apolitical (is that a word?) but agree that Kate O Connell is impressive. I think, in general women politicians get a lot more criticism-while I don’t agree with some things she says, at least she argues her case. I’m in Tipp constituency and look forward to a possible change on the ballot sheet.

jlm29

realdanbreen wrote: »

So Lowry & Mattie are both shoo in's how many seats does that leave, 3 ?

3 yes. Is Mattie still a shoo in? I know he has a huge following, but Is there any chance that mattie’s opposition to the gay marriage referendum, his reluctance to repeal the 8th, and his lack of enthusiasm for the hpv vaccine will have damaged him at all?

pooch90

I canvassed during the referendum and, definitely in south tipp, the contempt for Mattie among under 40s is palpable.
Seamus Healy is still very popular and his stance in the 8th ref has definitely brought him to a younger generation.

digzy

jlm29 wrote: »

3 yes. Is Mattie still a shoo in? I know he has a huge following, but Is there any chance that mattie’s opposition to the gay marriage referendum, his reluctance to repeal the 8th, and his lack of enthusiasm for the hpv vaccine will have damaged him at all?

That's exactly what his voters want. Remember there's still between 30 to 40 %
who voted no in the last 2 referenda.

I think he's full of hot air. all this standing on the dail plinth going on about national issues just to appeal to his base.

digzy

pooch90 wrote: »

I canvassed during the referendum and, definitely in south tipp, the contempt for Mattie among under 40s is palpable.
Seamus Healy is still very popular and his stance in the 8th ref has definitely brought him to a younger generation.

Saw seamus healy at a 'town hall' meeting in the excel tipperary last year.
He hardly said anything and was pretty unimpressive. though to be fair he was in good company. Cahill and mattie weren't much better.
Will he run again?

pooch90

digzy wrote: »

Saw seamus healy at a 'town hall' meeting in the excel tipperary last year.
He hardly said anything and was pretty unimpressive. though to be fair he was in good company. Cahill and mattie weren't much better.
Will he run again?

Im not sure. Id imagine so.
Tbh I had little or no interest in our elected officials until recently. But I truly believe Seamus to be one of the good ones. He's not outlandish or brash but he's passionate and genuinely cares.

touts

Lowry is safe. It's hard to know what he would have to do to lose his seat. Some up in North Tipp worship him. He's the Donald Trump of North Tipperary.

Mattie is also safe. He played it quite smart really. He knows 60%+ of the voters can't stand him but he doesn't care because he only needs 20% to get elected and he has been playing exclusively to 30-40% non stop for the last 5-10 years.

Healy seems to be reasonably secure. He has the left wing vote sown up. Go into some welfare estates around South Tipp and every second door has a Healy sticker in the window. It's like Mattie in a way. He only targets ~30% of the voters knowing he only needs 20% for his seat.

Kelly is hard to call. He nearly lost his seat last time because of Irish water and his ability to piss everyone off everytime he opened his mouth. But he has been much more restrained and low key since he left ministerial office. When he has been in the public eye it's been on his work on inquiries etc. I suspect he'll do enough to hold on and will be Labour leader after the election and then possibly lose it the following election when his arrogant streak comes out on the airwaves again.

Cahill is the one seat I think is certainly in play. There'll be an almighty scramble for that one. The problem is the lineup to take it isn't very strong. Aherne is trading on his mother's reputation from 15 years ago. Kate O'Connell's sister is even worse trading on her sister's reputation. It's arguably the weakest FG line up in generations. Sinn Fein have no one. Baby Smith was probably the biggest threat to Cahill but the civil war in Tipperary FF has done for him. FF don't look like they will be running anyone else bar Cahill. They might add Ambrose to the ticket but Mattie has the FF vote in South Tipperary. Cahill MIGHT raise his profile a bit in the run up to the election as this winter looks like being a tough one for farmers with a fodder crisis and farmers are his only strength. I think it'll be a last count battle between Cahill and Aherne for the final seat and the farmers will see Cahill over the line.

So I predict no change baring a retirement or major scandal.

Joe_ Public

Are both of those FG candidates based around the Clonmel area? Surely make sense for the party to have a north based candidate, though maybe they just didn't want Coonan on the ticket for whatever reason. Seems bit odd to me anyway.

Pogue eile

touts wrote: »

Lowry is safe. It's hard to know what he would have to do to lose his seat. Some up in North Tipp worship him. He's the Donald Trump of North Tipperary.

I don't get the comparrison at all, you will have to expand on that one, if you had compared him to say Nixon that would make sense or at an Irish level to Haughey then yeah I get it, but he has absolutely zero in common with Trump and the reasoning used by followers of both men are completley different.

touts

Pogue eile wrote: »

I don't get the comparrison at all, you will have to expand on that one, if you had compared him to say Nixon that would make sense or at an Irish level to Haughey then yeah I get it, but he has absolutely zero in common with Trump and the reasoning used by followers of both men are completley different.

What I was getting at was both have a core of voters who stay fanatically loyal no matter what the courts, authorities and media unveil about them. I'm sure there may be other comparisons people can draw but will not go down that road given that one of those comparisons may be the litigious inclination of them or their circle of friends. Suffice to say I would rather leave my ballot blank than vote for either man.

touts

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Are both of those FG candidates based around the Clonmel area? Surely make sense for the party to have a north based candidate, though maybe they just didn't want Coonan on the ticket for whatever reason. Seems bit odd to me anyway.

From what I've heard the expectation of HQ was that Kate O'Connell's sister would get through the convention and they would pick a running mate from further North. When the members didn't pick her then HQ had to add her. They are reluctant to go for a three candidate strategy because they blame that for losing both seats last time. But don't be surprised if they add someone before the election if they find they aren't polling well up North.

Pogue eile

touts wrote: »

What I was getting at was both have a core of voters who stay fanatically loyal no matter what the courts, authorities and media unveil about them. I'm sure there may be other comparisons people can draw but will not go down that road given that one of those comparisons may be the litigious inclination of them or their circle of friends. Suffice to say I would rather leave my ballot blank than vote for either man.

I wouldnt say Trump has that kind of loyal following at all, a large portion of his vote was a anti-establishemnt protest vote, another portion was the die hard party followers and the remainder was a 'anyone that isnt Hillary'' vote.

Lowry has a loyal pool of supporters built up over 30 plus years that wouldn't even consider voting for someone else, two very different dynamics to be honest.

touts

Pogue eile wrote: »

I wouldnt say Trump has that kind of loyal following at all, a large portion of his vote was a anti-establishemnt protest vote, another portion was the die hard party followers and the remainder was a 'anyone that isnt Hillary'' vote.

Lowry has a loyal pool of supporters built up over 30 plus years that wouldn't even consider voting for someone else, two very different dynamics to be honest.

I would have thought that also but recently I think there is a very loyal core vote who love Trump. He has nothing in common with them up in his ivory tower but he has convinced them that he is their champion. In that respect Lowry is very similar. Party etc doesn't matter to them. They hate anyone who opposes their man.

Joe_ Public

I struggle with the Trump comparison tbh. Whatever else he is, Lowry is a (north) Tipp man, admired and accepted by his supporters who dont care so much about national issues but see him as one of them who will defend their interests. Who or what is Trump in comparison? He has no base politically. He’s a Twitter and Facebook man and all the nonsense that entails. A native New Yorker who espouses none of the liberal values the city champions and is despised by most people there.

MarkR

I've renamed the thread to "General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary", hopefully as requested.

Do you really want to keep this ball rolling, or start a new one?

touts

Interesting development this morning:

http://tippfm.com/news/ff-select-north-tipp-business-woman-contest-general-election/

North Tipperary businesswoman and community activist Sandra Farrell has been added to the Fianna Fail ticket to contest a seat in the county for the next general election.
The Managing Director of a local healthcare company, nurse and former Labour Mayor of Nenagh she will run along side sitting party TD Jackie Cahill.
A niece of Independent local councillor Hughie McGrath Sandra Farrell was elected to the Fianna Fail’s National Executive at the party’s Ard Fheis last October.

FF reduced to poaching an ex Labour Councillor to run in the election and it looks like no candidate in the South of the county. Add that to FG parachuting in Kate O'Connell's sister from outside and there must be a serious lack of local talent coming up within the two parties.

Xenophile

touts wrote: »

. Add that to FG parachuting in Kate O'Connell's sister from outside and there must be a serious

Kate O'Connells's sister is Mary Newman who lives near Golden, Cashel. where she has a Vetinary Practice.

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

touts wrote: »

. Add that to FG parachuting in Kate O'Connell's sister from outside and there must be a serious

Kate O'Connells's sister is Mary Newman who lives near Golden, Cashel. where she has a Vetinary Practice.

Once again you're factually incorrect. She doesn't have a vet practice. She's a qualified vet and is married to one.

digzy

touts wrote: »

Interesting development this morning:

http://tippfm.com/news/ff-select-north-tipp-business-woman-contest-general-election/



FF reduced to poaching an ex Labour Councillor to run in the election and it looks like no candidate in the South of the county. Add that to FG parachuting in Kate O'Connell's sister from outside and there must be a serious lack of local talent coming up within the two parties.

Probably the ff vote in south tipp is with Mattie. They don't want to waste their time fighting him. They also have to run the token female. I doubt they'd take a second seat with Cahill until Mattie retires. Even at that, they'd still struggle to bring home a second seat.

You're still spouting the "parachute " rubbish. Either you haven't a clue or deliberately misrepresenting the woman. She's living in tipp around 10 years if not more. She ran for the nomination, got a decent vote and finished a close second. Fg have to run a female candidate. They'd probably rather run a 'north rider ' but if they didn't select Newman she could run as an independent and take some of Aherne's vote. Fg would do well to get one seat I think.

elperello

digzy wrote: »

Xenophile wrote: »

Once again you're factually incorrect. She doesn't have a vet practice. She's a qualified vet and is married to one.

Just to clarify.

Ms. Newman is a qualified vet who works for this company.

https://www.zoetis.ie/

elperello

Did a bit of lobbying for them also.

https://www.lobbying.ie/return/10122/zoetis-ireland

Xenophile

Peter Casey secured his highest % vote in Tipperary. Would he win a seat in this constituency in the next General Election ?. My hunch is that he would.

honeybear

Xenophile wrote: »

Peter Casey secured his highest % vote in Tipperary. Would he win a seat in this constituency in the next General Election ?. My hunch is that he would.

Voted for him in PE-unlikely to vote for him in GE not that the standard in Tipp is high imo. People outside Tipp (esp Dublin) are amazed that MLowry gets re-elected strongly every year....Imagine their reaction if Peter Casey was elected. Any I haven’t even referred to Mattie McG!!!

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

Peter Casey secured his highest % vote in Tipperary. Would he win a seat in this constituency in the next General Election ?. My hunch is that he would.

Zero chance.
He got his largest vote in areas with higher exposure to Travellers and their ‘culture’.
Mdh was the best candidate. It was pretty obvious he was safe. A lot of voters, aware of that used their vote to send a msg back to the government that we’re pretty fed up with the pandering to Travellers and those on permanent welfare.

Casey is a political idiot. I voted for him but wouldn’t vote for him in a general election. I doubt he’d win a seat in donegal either.

He’s not cut out for politics. He knows that too.
We’ll never hear from him in a political context again.

Xenophile

Casey has played a useful role in bringing to the attention of urban dwellers just how much of a nuisance many travellers are.

The constituency of Tipperary is famous or infamous for electing independents, maybe Casey does not have the vision to try his luck here.

If those houses in Thurles are not occupied by the time of the next election I would say that there is a ready made seat in the constituency for Casey.

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

If those houses in Thurles are not occupied by the time of the next election I would say that there is a ready made seat in the constituency for Casey.

It’s pretty obvious what’s happening with the houses.
The council want em in there and out of their current camp.travellers know that too. The council/Councillors were all very measured in their statements. Essentially saying, ‘we’ve to accommodate their culture’ even though privately the situation must sicken them.

Travellers will be in before the end of the year....
I can imagine the state it’ll be in, in about 3 years.... but that’s culture and the council ought clean it up at regular intervals for fear of messing with their culture....

solerina

digzy wrote: »

It’s pretty obvious what’s happening with the houses.
The council want em in there and out of their current camp.travellers know that too. The council/Councillors were all very measured in their statements. Essentially saying, ‘we’ve to accommodate their culture’ even though privately the situation must sicken them.

Travellers will be in before the end of the year....
I can imagine the state it’ll be in, in about 3 years.... but that’s culture and the council ought clean it up at regular intervals for fear of messing with their culture....

Culture my ar** surely the most fundamental part of their culture ian traveling...they don’t do that anymore so what culture do they have left ?? Most of them are as settled as the rest of us.

elperello

If by some unexpected turn of events Casey joins FF I think you could safely rule him out of Tipp in the GE.
Hard to see Sandra Farrell on the same ticket as Casey.

If he doesn't join FF (the more likely scenario) then who knows?

digzy

solerina wrote: »

Culture my ar** surely the most fundamental part of their culture ian traveling...they don’t do that anymore so what culture do they have left ?? Most of them are as settled as the rest of us.

I don’t think you got my sarcastic use of the word ‘culture ‘
Thought I was pretty clear what I thought about the more common aspects of their culture.

Dunno how someone can be a settler traveller...
If you’re settled in a house but not ‘travelling’ ....