General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

touts

elperello wrote: »

If by some unexpected turn of events Casey joins FF I think you could safely rule him out of Tipp in the GE.
Hard to see Sandra Farrell on the same ticket as Casey.

If he doesn't join FF (the more likely scenario) then who knows?

Well according to Casey on the Late Late he's running in Donegal so that probably rules out Tipperary. But I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he will form a political party that will run someone in Tipperary. The main problem with setting up a new political party is funding that as you have to be an established political party to get state funding and political donation rules mean private funding has all but dried up. But Casey seems to have the personal funds to find a way around that. A couple of million would run a pretty good national campaign and that would appear to be well within his budget.

As to Sandra Farrell well a few years ago Cllr Sandra Farrell was the young Labour Mayor of Nenagh and the future of the left wing Labour Party in Tipperary. Now she's the not so young any more future of right of center Fianna Fail in Tipperary mainly because her path to power in Labour was blocked by Alan Kelly. I'd say she's fairly flexible on her allegiances and beliefs depending on who is most likely to get her a Dail seat.

But the interesting thing is apparently many Fianna Failers in South Tipperary are not at all happy that the two candidates the party is running are from North Tipperary. Casey could find an almost ready made organisation ready to flip over to him if he picks a candidate from the South. So while Casey himself may not run for Fianna Fail in Tipperary it wouldn't surprise me if by the time the election comes about a Casey candidate could be running with the support and assistance of much of the current Fianna Fail organisation in Tipperary

honeybear

touts wrote: »

Well according to Casey on the Late Late he's running in Donegal so that probably rules out Tipperary. But I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he will form a political party that will run someone in Tipperary. The main problem with setting up a new political party is funding that as you have to be an established political party to get state funding and political donation rules mean private funding has all but dried up. But Casey seems to have the personal funds to find a way around that. A couple of million would run a pretty good national campaign and that would appear to be well within his budget.

As to Sandra Farrell well a few years ago Cllr Sandra Farrell was the young Labour Mayor of Nenagh and the future of the left wing Labour Party in Tipperary. Now she's the not so young any more future of right of center Fianna Fail in Tipperary mainly because her path to power in Labour was blocked by Alan Kelly. I'd say she's fairly flexible on her allegiances and beliefs depending on who is most likely to get her a Dail seat.

But the interesting thing is apparently many Fianna Failers in South Tipperary are not at all happy that the two candidates the party is running are from North Tipperary. Casey could find an almost ready made organisation ready to flip over to him if he picks a candidate from the South. So while Casey himself may not run for Fianna Fail in Tipperary it wouldn't surprise me if by the time the election comes about a Casey candidate could be running with the support and assistance of much of the current Fianna Fail organisation in Tipperary

There is definitely an opening for a PC like candidate in Tipperary. Usually when the politicians entourage comes canvassing, I ask them about Broadband issues (I’ve been asking for EVER). This time, I’ll be asking them about rural crime. I can’t fault the local Gardaí-they are trying their best. Locals are prisoners in their own homes.

honeybear

touts wrote: »

Well according to Casey on the Late Late he's running in Donegal so that probably rules out Tipperary. But I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he will form a political party that will run someone in Tipperary. The main problem with setting up a new political party is funding that as you have to be an established political party to get state funding and political donation rules mean private funding has all but dried up. But Casey seems to have the personal funds to find a way around that. A couple of million would run a pretty good national campaign and that would appear to be well within his budget.

As to Sandra Farrell well a few years ago Cllr Sandra Farrell was the young Labour Mayor of Nenagh and the future of the left wing Labour Party in Tipperary. Now she's the not so young any more future of right of center Fianna Fail in Tipperary mainly because her path to power in Labour was blocked by Alan Kelly. I'd say she's fairly flexible on her allegiances and beliefs depending on who is most likely to get her a Dail seat.

But the interesting thing is apparently many Fianna Failers in South Tipperary are not at all happy that the two candidates the party is running are from North Tipperary. Casey could find an almost ready made organisation ready to flip over to him if he picks a candidate from the South. So while Casey himself may not run for Fianna Fail in Tipperary it wouldn't surprise me if by the time the election comes about a Casey candidate could be running with the support and assistance of much of the current Fianna Fail organisation in Tipperary

There is definitely an opening for a PC like candidate in Tipperary. Usually when the politicians entourage comes canvassing, I ask them about Broadband issues (I’ve been asking for EVER). This time, I’ll be asking them about rural crime. I can’t fault the local Gardaí-they are trying their best. Locals are prisoners in their own homes.

digzy

I think if you saw Casey on tv last Friday, it’s pretty clear he’s a bit of a political idiot and has fairly poorly thought out ideas.

I don’t think we’re very well represented by our tds but they’re all well aware of the issue of rural crime.

Casey is all hot air. He’ll not waste his money running a candidate. Why would he?
Even if he did, standing on the principle of a few statements made in the presidential election won’t be enough to swing a seat.

I’m thinking garret Aherne is our best bet. Purely on the assumption that it’ll be fg leading the next government. Opposition politicians can only shout from the sidelines

elperello

As the saying goes "a week is a long time in politics". I think we can rule out Peter Casey FF candidate in Tipperary.

The idea of Casey running an independent candidate might seem attractive to people who feel that they are not being heard on a number of issues that are of concern to them. However, Casey appears not to have a very well thought out political philosophy. A lot of his policies are top of the head stuff with little thought and I'd suspect no research put into them.

Consider that you are motivated to go along to his first meeting in your local town. Look around and see who turns up. If you have an interest in local politics you can probably predict who most of them will be. Are you going to throw your lot in with them?

Xenophile

It would appear to me that in his Late Late Show appearence Casey could not remember that Tipperary endorsed him as a candidate for the Aras.

He never name checked Tipperary not alone acknowledge the fact that he he received his highest % vote here, apart from Donegal he struggled to remember the names of the other councils that endorsed him.

Hard to see where he can make a further contribution, personally I would like to see him stand in Tipperay as he would be sure to liven up a very boring constituency.

The_Honeybadger

Casey is a bit of a joke, he may get elected somewhere but has nothing really to offer except populist nonsense.

I notice FG are running two southern based candidates in Tipp are they not concerned about splitting the vote and is there nobody up around Nenagh that would have a chance of getting in? They went for two young candidates too, should be interesting.

digzy

mickeyk wrote: »

Casey is a bit of a joke, he may get elected somewhere but has nothing really to offer except populist nonsense.

I notice FG are running two southern based candidates in Tipp are they not concerned about splitting the vote and is there nobody up around Nenagh that would have a chance of getting in? They went for two young candidates too, should be interesting.

Ahern won the convention. Newman came 2nd with a surprisingly high vote. Fg have to run a woman. If they didn’t run Newman she’d have run as an independent and probably take from Aherne. She had em by the balls. They ain’t running 3 candidates. I’d expect fg would be happy with 1 seat in tipp

touts

mickeyk wrote: »

Casey is a bit of a joke, he may get elected somewhere but has nothing really to offer except populist nonsense.

I notice FG are running two southern based candidates in Tipp are they not concerned about splitting the vote and is there nobody up around Nenagh that would have a chance of getting in? They went for two young candidates too, should be interesting.

I don't think either of the two seats in South Tipperary are in play. McGrath has a big personal vote and his stance on abortion etc while not appealing to the majority is what his base wants so he'll keep his seat. Healy will hold in Clonmel because he is really the only left wing candidate in the constituency. The only way that will change is if Sinn Fein can find a celeb to stand and so far no sign of that.

In the North Lowery's seat is safe with half a quota on top. Kelly could well surprise people and take the fourth seat. Farrell will take votes from him in Nenagh but when she goes out those votes will go straight back to him. And even with her nibbling at his vote I suspect he has done enough on issues like Health scandals etc to stay ahead of a pretty much invisible Cahill.

It's Cahill's seat that will be in play in the final count and will be the one FG or the Casey party will have in their sights. FG running two candidates from more or less the Cashel area could hurt them if Casey finds a Thurles based populist to run. Plus such a populist candidate would have strong support among farmers on the rural crime issue which eats into Cahill's core vote. On top of that if they were to find a former intercounty hurler then they would top the poll. But assuming this sort of thing is replicated in several other constituencies I think FG could decide to cut and run to the country very quickly if there is even a whiff of Casey getting a party together.

So based on the fact that time could run out before the Casey party gets organised it will be a straight battle between Cahill and FG for the seat. Cahill will find himself without a running mate with Farrell's small Labour Nenagh vote basically all going straight back to Kelly. So it will be between him and the last one standing between Ahern and Kate O'Connell's sister. With FG hq seeming to favour Kate O'Connell's sister in the publicity and media access I'd say that could be enough to keep her ahead of Ahern and into the final count battle with Cahill. That's when the farmers vote will see Cahill safe. He'll run on a Caseyesque ticket of being a local man concerned about local issues like rural crime and broadband and that will resonate with them far more than anything Kate O'Connell's sister will be able to come up with. It will also appeal to the old FF vote McGrath has in the south. With no official FF candidate in South Tipperary Cahill will pick up enough transfers from McGrath to keep him alive. So Ithink Cahill will hold his seat and we'll end up back where we started with the same 5 TDs.

jlm29

Kate O’ Connell’s sister is called Mary Newman.

Wrongway1985

touts wrote: »

So I think Cahill will hold his seat and we'll end up back where we started with the same 5 TDs.

If that's the case there's no two ways about it the voting public of Tipperary are a shower of idiots.

touts

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

If that's the case there's no two ways about it the voting public of Tipperary are a shower of idiots.

That and the choice is piss poor. Populists and relatives in both cases trading on reputation of others. We can only vote for what's on the ballot paper.

jem

touts wrote: »

.....The only way that will change is if Sinn Fein can fiand we'll end up back where we started with the same 5 TDs.

Good post and wont quote it all. Just referencing it.

Going through the sitting TD's I think the questions are

1. can mattie repeat his huge vote last time. It was way up on previously. Personally I think he will the anti abortion stance will play to his base.
2. Can healy hold on? have heard for a while now that fighting within his own camp has damaged him quite a bit and not being seen on the ground as much at all. If SF have any sort of a decent canidate down south I think he can be taken out.
3. Lowry is home and hosed as usuall. The question is can he haul back some of the votes he lost to Cahil around Thurles? Im not sure he can.
4. Kelly. Just about made it last time. Think his higher profile will benifit him and as long as he stays away from the water charges he will increase his Vote IMHO.
5. Cahil. I think this is a big question. I expect a bigger canvas in Thurles by Lowry. He made it with transfers from Ambrose and Smith. The latter got a large vote. Current running mates wont get anywhere near those figures. The big question is whether or not he will get the difference himself or will they split.A lot of angry Smith voters out there and whether or not they hold their nose and vote for cahil will IMHO decide whether or not he holds seat also whether mcgrath holds his vote or not.

This leaves FG and SF looking for seats. It is hard to see FG with no seat again as there should be enough there to take one however their canidates not well known at all. While SF need a good reasonable well known canidate or 2 to try and take out Healy.

In the heal of the hunt I think there are 3 dead safe seats.
Lowry, McGrath, Kelly
With battle for the last 2 between Healy/SF and Cahil/FG.

Wouldnt like to put too much money on this one.

tayto lover

mickeyk wrote: »

Casey is a bit of a joke, he may get elected somewhere but has nothing really to offer except populist nonsense.

I notice FG are running two southern based candidates in Tipp are they not concerned about splitting the vote and is there nobody up around Nenagh that would have a chance of getting in? They went for two young candidates too, should be interesting.

Casey is a bit of a joke but he did highlight what needed to be said and no other politician had taken that stance.
I think he could seriously damage the SF vote in several constituencies if he stands people in them.

by8auj6csd3ioq

"On top of that if they were to find a former intercounty hurler then they would top the poll."

LOL no wonder the country is in such a mess if that is the criterion by which people vote.

by8auj6csd3ioq

"On top of that if they were to find a former intercounty hurler then they would top the poll."

LOL no wonder the country is in such a mess if that is the criterion by which people vote.

by8auj6csd3ioq

sorry about double post it said it had not posted

by8auj6csd3ioq

sorry about double post it said it had not posted

digzy

Maddux Angry Seal wrote: »

"On top of that if they were to find a former intercounty hurler then they would top the poll."

LOL no wonder the country is in such a mess if that is the criterion by which people vote.

I wouldn’t take an anonymous post on a chat forum as gospel regarding who will top the poll!

Lowry will top it again...zero doubt!

by8auj6csd3ioq

i am not worried about it. i just think the suggestion that the top criterion for being elected is being an inter county hurler is ridiculous. Height of gombeenism. There are voters who have no interest in sport at all.

touts

Maddux Angry Seal wrote: »

"On top of that if they were to find a former intercounty hurler then they would top the poll."

LOL no wonder the country is in such a mess if that is the criterion by which people vote.

LOL indeed but when you're talking about populist politicians popular is the key part and for Casey's target audience in Tipperary there's no one as popular as someone with a couple of All Ireland medals in his back pocket. Look at our current TDs. It's not right but sadly it is how politics works especially in a county that has indpendent TDs who specialise in targeting niche audiences from "vote for me because taxman is out to get me and therefore you too" to "vote for me or the state will kill the babies" and on to "vote for me and the taxpayer will pay for everything for you"

by8auj6csd3ioq

That is my point, it is no wonder the country is in such a state when people could get elected because they can hit a ball with a stick

digzy

Maddux Angry Seal wrote: »

That is my point, it is no wonder the country is in such a state when people could get elected because they can hit a ball with a stick

You’ve no point! You’re making a presumption given one speculative post.

Give me the name of a former tipperary hurler who has been a td. If it was that simple wouldn’t there be a fair chunk of the Kk team in the dail?
While you’re at it, have a look at other counties...

I think jimmy dinehan is one of the few I can think of.

Fine Gael ran Derry Foley ( former tipp footballer) in tipp south a few years back. Made no impact.

by8auj6csd3ioq

dont tell me point what i am making. the statement was ridiculous and such thinking if it could be described as thinking is nonsensical. that is all i said . that is my opinion i do not have to ask your permission to have it. so do not define what i said in your narrow view. intercounty hurler LOL

Pogue eile

Maddux Angry Seal wrote: »

dont tell me point what i am making. the statement was ridiculous and such thinking if it could be described as thinking is nonsensical. that is all i said . that is my opinion i do not have to ask your permission to have it. so do not define what i said in your narrow view. intercounty hurler LOL

Genuinely can't figure out if you are being intentionlly obtuse or you are actually not very bright?

by8auj6csd3ioq

i can't work out if you cannot read or are just pretending you can't

by8auj6csd3ioq

"Genuinely can't figure out if you are being intentionlly obtuse or you are actually not very bright?"

i can't work out if you cannot read or are just pretending you can't

Pogue eile

Maddux Angry Seal wrote: »

i can't work out if you cannot read or are just pretending you can't

And thanks you for removing the doubt, top man!

realdanbreen

touts wrote: »

Well according to Casey on the Late Late he's running in Donegal so that probably rules out Tipperary. But I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he will form a political party that will run someone in Tipperary. The main problem with setting up a new political party is funding that as you have to be an established political party to get state funding and political donation rules mean private funding has all but dried up. But Casey seems to have the personal funds to find a way around that. A couple of million would run a pretty good national campaign and that would appear to be well within his budget.

As to Sandra Farrell well a few years ago Cllr Sandra Farrell was the young Labour Mayor of Nenagh and the future of the left wing Labour Party in Tipperary. Now she's the not so young any more future of right of center Fianna Fail in Tipperary mainly because her path to power in Labour was blocked by Alan Kelly. I'd say she's fairly flexible on her allegiances and beliefs depending on who is most likely to get her a Dail seat.

But the interesting thing is apparently many Fianna Failers in South Tipperary are not at all happy that the two candidates the party is running are from North Tipperary. Casey could find an almost ready made organisation ready to flip over to him if he picks a candidate from the South. So while Casey himself may not run for Fianna Fail in Tipperary it wouldn't surprise me if by the time the election comes about a Casey candidate could be running with the support and assistance of much of the current Fianna Fail organisation in Tipperary

Casey was making a point, I thought, about putting his name forward in more than one constituency and then closer to the cut off point opting for one constituency but Tubs the knob cut him off before he could clarify that.

realdanbreen

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

If that's the case there's no two ways about it the voting public of Tipperary are a shower of idiots.

Well it's true that we are not as sophisticated as our city cousins who pay more for everything from housing, insurance, drink, spend hours stuck in traffic every day and end up voting in such inspiring TD's as Shane Ross or Paul Murphy !