Is sub3 realistic for me for this year's DCM?

HenryGreen

Hello,

I'm looking for people's feedback to see if they think that at my current level of fitness and with the amount of time left to train before DCM, that it would be possible for me to run sub3.

I am currently running about 45km-50km(4 runs) a week at an average pace of 4:45/km. My focus at the moment is to just build a base so I haven't as yet introduced any other types of training.

I've ran three marathons in the past, two just under sub 4 and my most recent in 2013 at 3:23. That year my half marathon time was 1:28. Ran very little in 2014.

So, just asking people who have had experience of going for sub3 whether they think that it is a realistic goal for me with 6 months of training left. Have never ran DCM before and would love to give sub3 a go this year but if that's too optimistic have no problem holding off for a year.

Thanks

Chivito550

HenryGreen wrote: »

Hello,

I'm looking for people's feedback to see if they think that at my current level of fitness and with the amount of time left to train before DCM, that it would be possible for me to run sub3.

I am currently running about 45km-50km(4 runs) a week at an average pace of 4:45/km. My focus at the moment is to just build a base so I haven't as yet introduced any other types of training.

I've ran three marathons in the past, two just under sub 4 and my most recent in 2013 at 3:23. That year my half marathon time was 1:28. Ran very little in 2014.

So, just asking people who have had experience of going for sub3 whether they think that it is a realistic goal for me with 6 months of training left. Have never ran DCM before and would love to give sub3 a go this year but if that's too optimistic have no problem holding off for a year.

Thanks

Depends what sort of shape you are in now. 2013 performances are fairly irrelevant if you didn't run in 2014. Run a 5km and a 10km to see what shape you are in.

HenryGreen

What sort of times would I need to be hitting for 5km and 10km at this stage?

RayCun

useful thread

walshb

You would likley need a fair few longish runs at quite a faster pace than 4 mins 45 to see what shape you are in. Plenty of ks into the legs. Sub 3 is quite an ask looking at your post!

Not sure what exact times 5k and 10 k times you would need. Some people have fast legs and fast 5k and 10ks, but poor engines for long long runs, and then some have slow legs and slow times but can churn out long ks at the same methodical pace. I would think 20 mins and 40 mins would be almost a given for 5 and 10 k, unless you have a real great cardio engine.

ooter

I would be very similar to you henry in terms of current training,I'm doing 30 miles/3 runs a week since DCM last year, all around 8 min miles.
Planning on ramping that up soon enough with the p+d 55-70 mile plan in mind for the end of June.that'll be my 3rd marathon,ultimate aim is to go sub 3.
What,if any,plans have you done for your 3 previous marathons?

HenryGreen

@ooter Haven't strictly followed plans in the past but planning on doing so this time, would you recommend the one you're following?

@walshb Would have gone sub 20 and sub 40 regularly enough in 2012/13 but as Chivito says maybe that's irrelevant because of my lack of running last year. You say it's a big ask for sub3 this year but not ridiculous, would you say? I don't want to set out on a sub3 training plan if it's completely unrealistic

walshb

HenryGreen wrote: »

@ooter Haven't strictly followed plans in the past but planning on doing so this time, would you recommend the one you're following?

@walshb Would have gone sub 20 and sub 40 regularly enough in 2012/13 but as Chivito says maybe that's irrelevant because of my lack of running last year. You say it's a big ask for sub3 this year but not ridiculous, would you say? I don't want to set out on a sub3 training plan if it's completely unrealistic

6 months to DCM 2015. Good bit of time for a naturally fit person like yourself.

Ok, well then it's a case of getting serious Ks into the legs. Sub 20 and sub 40 indicate to me a fairly natural cardio engine there. It's from 15-20-30-40 where you have to look. It's the unknown. How will the legs and arms and muscles react, and how will the heart and lungs cope? The only way to find out is to get the long runs in a couple of times per week.

You have already ran 42 ks. You know what it feels like. You have 23 mins to shave off. Not sure how well you prepared for that 3 hrs 23 run, but if you feel that you didn't do too much ks then that's good, as you can make amends now and start long running more. If you can go 40 mins for 10 k now or in the next few weeks then there is no reason why you can't get very close to 3 hrs with pleny of running in your legs.

Clearlier

HenryGreen wrote: »

@ooter Haven't strictly followed plans in the past but planning on doing so this time, would you recommend the one you're following?

@walshb Would have gone sub 20 and sub 40 regularly enough in 2012/13 but as Chivito says maybe that's irrelevant because of my lack of running last year. You say it's a big ask for sub3 this year but not ridiculous, would you say? I don't want to set out on a sub3 training plan if it's completely unrealistic

There's only one way to find out! Everybody develops at a different pace and has a different development ceiling to everyone else. No one can seriously answer your questions at this time.

I'd steer clear of any plan that aims for a particular time. It's not going to be an optimal one for you in your current state of development as a runner.

Start running now and build up your miles gradually, even if you're not ready to give sub-3 a realistic go in October you'll be in a far better position to do so in 2016 if you start running now than if you put it off for a year.

overpronator

The best think you can do is jump into a parkrun or some other local race and go flat out to see exactly where you are fitness wise. Set your training times off that, get some base mileage into you legs and maybe a block of 10k training. 14-16 weeks out from DCM have your mileage at a level where you can jump into a marathon training plan. Do a couple of races in the marathon block to gauge progress and decide 6-8 weeks out what's realistic for you.

Its hard to give you any more advice based on the info you have given but if you did run 3.23 off a 1.28 half Id suggest that you will need to work on endurance. Best of luck!

ooter

HenryGreen wrote: »

@ooter Haven't strictly followed plans in the past but planning on doing so this time, would you recommend the one you're following?

Well I was in sub 38 shape for 10 k and sub 87 shape for the HM going in to DCM last year having followed the p+d 55 mile plan and I was nowhere near sub 3,it was a major eye opener.
Going to have a crack at 55-70 this year and see how I get on.

RayCun

ooter wrote: »

Well I was in sub 38 shape for 10 k and sub 87 shape for the HM

those two alone suggest you really need to work on endurance

HenryGreen

@Clearlier so you think it's a bad idea to follow a plan even if I followed overpronator's suggestion?
My marathon time in 2013 was definitely down to lack of endurance overpronator and not having done enough long runs or got enough kms in; your advice seems to make sense for me. I appreciate the fact that it's hard for people to say categorically what's possible for different people.
@ooter do you mind me asking how far off sub3 you were? Have never ran sub38 for 10km.

ooter

RayCun wrote: »

those two alone suggest you really need to work on endurance

Yeah I know,to be honest I struggled with the higher mileage of the 55 mile plan last year,I've done a good few 14 and 16 mile runs over the winter so hopefully they stand to me.

Clearlier

HenryGreen wrote: »

@Clearlier so you think it's a bad idea to follow a plan even if I followed overpronator's suggestion?
My marathon time in 2013 was definitely down to lack of endurance

No, you should definitely follow a plan, it should be progressive and have purpose.

What you shouldn't do is follow a plan that says it will get you to finish a marathon in under 3 hours. The chances of such a plan being optimal for you are remote. Either it's too easy for you and you don't do as well as you could have or it's too hard and you get injured/fail to complete the plan.

If Dublin is your aim then take a look at Advanced Marathoning by Pfitzinger and Douglas, read the whole book and then look at the plans in the back. Think about whether you can realistically get yourself fit enough to complete the first week of one of the 18 week plans without killing yourself. If you can then follow that and see how you get on at Dublin.

HenryGreen

Ok, thanks Clearlier, misunderstood what you were saying about following a plan.

dublin runner

Possible? Most definite.

Your 10km time indicates you have decent leg turnover for a sub 3 attempt. My advice would be not to even think about a time for Dublin. For the next few weeks get a good solid foundation of base training, before starting a structured 14-16 week marathon programme.

Work hard and anything is possible, put no limits or pressures on yourself for the moment. Only in Sept will you start looking at a possible target time. I ran 3.46 in 2012 and 2.58 in 2013. Trust me, if I can do it anybody can!

HenryGreen

@dublinrunner, yeah that's what I was planning on doing in terms of building a base and not looking to a plan until June/July. That's a massive improvement in one year.

adrian522

DR, Did you follow P&D for 2013?

ooter

HenryGreen wrote: »

@ooter do you mind me asking how far off sub3 you were? Have never ran sub38 for 10km.

14 mins.
I decided not to go with the 3 hr pacers,my plan was to go through halfway in 92-3 mins and see how I felt from there,went through halfway as planned but the climb from dolphins barn to walkinstown killed me,the gig was up by mile 15.

dublin runner

HenryGreen wrote: »

@dublinrunner, yeah that's what I was planning on doing in terms of building a base and not looking to a plan until June/July. That's a massive improvement in one year.

There's no big secret, no big mystery. Like most things it's the simple things; consistency, smart training and most importantly, injury prevention. Generic plans like the P&D are decent plans to follow for some. Just don't be a slave to it because it's not tailor made for you. It's all about balance really.

HenryGreen

Just a couple of things dublinrunner: Did you follow a particular plan for 2013? Why did you decide not to go with pacers? Only time I have ever ran with pacers was at Bohermeen Half Marathon for sub 1:30 and I found it really helpful

HenryGreen

Just a couple of things: @dublinrunner Did you follow a particular plan for 2013?
@ooter Why did you decide not to go with pacers? Only time I have ever ran with pacers was at Bohermeen Half Marathon for sub 1:30 and I found it really helpful

ooter

HenryGreen wrote: »

@ooter Why did you decide not to go with pacers?

I knew I'd be able to go through halfway in 90 mins with the pacers but my worry was how I'd cope in the 2nd half.decided to go through halfway in 92:30 in the hope I could kick on in the 2nd half but it wasn't to be.

BeepBeep67

IMO, your best approach would to start a formal training plan based on your current fitness level.
It's 28 weeks or so to DCM15, that's 10 weeks of base building, plus 3 x 6 week marathon specific phases.
For the next 10 weeks just focus on increasing the mileage, distance and frequency from your current level in blocks of 4, 3 weeks building and 1 recovery week.

Towards the end this this phase plan a few races or time trials, this should give you an indication of where to aim for, this can be adjusted further as you get into the specific phases.

I wouldn't worry if the indications point to 3:15 or whatever, work with that, get a solid marathon cycle behind you and rinse and repeat with more mileage and faster sessions.

menoscemo

Just looking at it objectively, running a 3:23 off a 1:28 indicates a seriously lack of endurance in 2013.
The only way to build marathon endurance is by increasing your aerobic base which entails lots and lots of easy/steady running in the main. Your lack of running in 2014 won't have helped in this regard, but as the lads say you have 6 months and if you build sensibly then follow a good Marathon plan you can give the marathon a good go.

My only advice is that if you don't make the sub3 in 2015 don't give up on running again for a long period; keep on running consistently test out yourself over shorter distances for a while and then go again. If you keep at it consistently you will improve time after time.

ooter

That's what I've been doing since DCM 14,loads of slow,steady running, no fast stuff at all.

shane1981

menoscemo wrote: »

Just looking at it objectively, running a 3:23 off a 1:28 indicates a seriously lack of endurance in 2013.
The only way to build marathon endurance is by increasing your aerobic base which entails lots and lots of easy/steady running in the main.

+1 on this. I ran a 1:28 on st patricks day but only managed 3:23 in Rotterdam on Sunday. There was just nothing left in the legs for last 10k. I had been following the P+D 55-70 but due to slow recovery on an ankle sprain from Christmas, I was limiting myself to only 30-40 miles a week. Very few of which were PMP miles.

Sub 3:00 is my target but im thinking alot more weekday easy miles will be required to achieve it.

average_runner

menoscemo wrote: »

Just looking at it objectively, running a 3:23 off a 1:28 indicates a seriously lack of endurance in 2013.
The only way to build marathon endurance is by increasing your aerobic base which entails lots and lots of easy/steady running in the main. Your lack of running in 2014 won't have helped in this regard, but as the lads say you have 6 months and if you build sensibly then follow a good Marathon plan you can give the marathon a good go.

My only advice is that if you don't make the sub3 in 2015 don't give up on running again for a long period; keep on running consistently test out yourself over shorter distances for a while and then go again. If you keep at it consistently you will improve time after time.

Might be helpful to some, if you could put down the times for a easy/steady run for a 3 hour marathon?

RayCun

average_runner wrote: »

Might be helpful to some, if you could put down the times for a easy/steady run for a 3 hour marathon?

They should be based on current fitness rather than a target marathon time.
And even then, two 2.59 runners might do their easy and steady runs at different paces, depending on the rest of their training. Better to use race times to judge progression

menoscemo

average_runner wrote: »

Might be helpful to some, if you could put down the times for a easy/steady run for a 3 hour marathon?

What Ray says is completely right. Depends on your total mileage etc and how many sessions you are doing per week (you need to go slower on your 'off' days to recover). As long as you are hitting pace on your sessions and races that's all that matters.

But needless to say his current easy pace of 4:45/km is certainly not too slow, In fact 5-5;10 pace on easy days would be fine too In my opinion!!

RayCun wrote: »

They should be based on current fitness rather than a target marathon time.
And even then, two 2.59 runners might do their easy and steady runs at different paces, depending on the rest of their training. Better to use race times to judge progression