Ukrainian Conflict 2014 - ? (Take II)

BoJack Horseman

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Vladimir Putin declares all Russian military deaths state secrets

Of course some military deaths remain secret in other countries.

What Czar Shirtless is specifying is any soldiers on 'special operations' dying will remain a secret.

Its curious that 'holidaying' now constitutes 'special operations'.

Dannyboy83

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Its curious that 'holidaying' now constitutes 'special operations'.

I have no evidence this is true, but according to some of the more rational Russian posters on Quora, it's illegal for Russian soldiers to spend their vacations abroad without submitting a detailed request and getting it approved...

BoJack Horseman

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I have no evidence this is true, but according to some of the more rational Russian posters on Quora, it's illegal for Russian soldiers to spend their vacations abroad without submitting a detailed request and getting it approved...

Indeed.... That's why they are on orders...

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0GS0N120140828?irpc=932

East Ukrainian pro-Russian separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko said serving Russian soldiers, on leave from their posts, are fighting Ukrainian troops alongside the rebels, Russian state television reported.

"Among us are fighting serving soldiers, who would rather take their vacation not on a beach but with us, among brothers, who are fighting for their freedom," said Zakharchenko in an interview posted on Vesti.ru, the Internet site of a Russian state television station.

Its only the Russians peddling the 'holiday' myth.

Sierra Oscar

There seems to have been a major escalation in fighting today along the Donetsk front.

BBC News - Heavy fighting rages near Donetsk, despite truce

Fierce fighting is raging between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, officials on both sides say.

The clashes - said to involve heavy artillery and tanks - are taking place in Maryinka and Krasnohorivka, outside the rebel-held city of Donetsk.

There are numerous reports that both sides have returned their heavy artillery to the frontline. If that is true then Minsk 2 could unravel quickly.

Gatling

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There seems to have been a major escalation in fighting today along the Donetsk front.

BBC News - Heavy fighting rages near Donetsk, despite truce



There are numerous reports that both sides have returned their heavy artillery to the frontline. If that is true then Minsk 2 could unravel quickly.

The problem is minsk 2 never actually stopped the fighting Ukrainian military service personnel were been killed on a daily basis from shelling from rebel held areas ,
Minsk 2 was purely a let's placate Vladimir Putin exercise because hollande and Merkel hadnt a clue as to how to deal with Russian aggression,

riffmongous

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There seems to have been a major escalation in fighting today along the Donetsk front.

BBC News - Heavy fighting rages near Donetsk, despite truce



There are numerous reports that both sides have returned their heavy artillery to the frontline. If that is true then Minsk 2 could unravel quickly.

I cant say I am surprised, there was a lot of suspicion of an offensive being planned the last few weeks

Lemming

riffmongous wrote: »

I cant say I am surprised, there was a lot of suspicion of an offensive being planned the last few weeks

If you look at the areas they rebels are purportedly pushing in to, it would appear that the intention is to create a deeper pocket of rebel held ground from which to launch a two-pronged final assault on Mauripol, from east and north.

Gatling

You can guarantee Putin will now blame this on America trying to take the fifa world cup off Russia and there's no fighting in Ukraine statement to follow

BoJack Horseman

A renewal of a summer campaign is inevitable...

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-exclusive-russia-masses-heavy-firepower-on-border-with-ukraine---witness-2015-5?r=US

PopePalpatine

It's the invasion of the Sudetenland all over again.

Grayson

Just putting this here

Gatling

Grayson wrote: »

Just putting this here

Easier to brainwash kids wonder where all the so called Men of Donesk are

IrishTrajan

Grayson wrote: »

Just putting this here

No doubt the people who support this are also the same people who condemned Kony for using child soldiers back in 2012.

robindch

On Thursday, the Royal Institute of International Affairs - aka Chatham House, an institute with considerable policy weight in the UK - released a useful, and politically direct, set of recommendations concerning Russia. The report recommends that Ukraine should receive massive external aid, the EU's energy policy should be de-Russified, the Kremlin's information war should be countered and NATO should be strengthened. Interestingly, it also says that western policy-makers should look beyond Putin and be prepared for a coup in Russia:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/russian-challenge
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20150605RussianChallengeGilesHansonLyneNixeySherrWood.pdf

Chatham House wrote:

Whether the present leadership endures or is prematurely replaced, the way ahead will be complex and potentially turbulent. The events of the last 18 months have demonstrated conclusively that when dealing with Russia, optimism is not a strategy.

In what appears to have been his first contact with western media following this belittling report, Putin was uncharacteristically de-escalatory, saying "there is no need to fear Russia" and that "Only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack Nato":

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33034844

It's impossible to know whether the report and the uncharacteristic comments are linked, but it's certainly plausible when one bears in mind that Putin's sole policy goal at this point is to remain in power, and that the report suggests that this may come to a sudden, unpredictable end.

While it's eighteen months late, the Chatham House report remains worth reading.

IrishTrajan

robindch wrote: »

On Thursday, the Royal Institute of International Affairs - aka Chatham House, an institute with considerable policy weight in the UK - released a useful, and politically direct, set of recommendations concerning Russia. The report recommends that Ukraine should receive massive external aid, the EU's energy policy should be de-Russified, the Kremlin's information war should be countered and NATO should be strengthened. Interestingly, it also says that western policy-makers should look beyond Putin and be prepared for a coup in Russia:

"NATO should be strengthened" - What exactly does that mean? Another round of expansions, to include Georgia, Ukraine (possibly Armenia)? Or that individual Members should be pressured more to increasing defence spending?

The "massive external aid" to Ukraine seems a bit strange. Yes, Ukraine needs funds. But there is large scale corruption in Ukraine, and most of the funding they'd receive (or at least a large portion) would be squandered and siphoned off (and I support Ukraine). How do we guarantee this money is actually invested in Ukraine, and not just funnelled into the bank accounts of Government officials?

robindch wrote: »

In what appears to have been his first contact with western media following this belittling report, Putin was uncharacteristically de-escalatory, saying "there is no need to fear Russia" and that "Only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack Nato":

While rather strange, this is probably the result of sanctions, oil prices and projected economic contractions. Putin came to power on the backs of the oligarchs, they're not like to enjoy having their livelihoods taken apart piece-by-piece.

Russia is feeling the bite, and they are using platitudes to try and ease their tensions, but I don't believe Russia has learned anything. They will continue supporting the rebels and separatists, and once oil prices have risen, they will begin renewed aggressions.

Now is the time to stomp the message home: You don't get to shoot down EU citizens, annex a neighbour's lands and start a rebellion in more. You don't get to try and bully EU members, nor do you get to act belligerent towards nations. You don't get to abuse your power and threaten nuclear war whenever someone does something you don't like.

BoJack Horseman

Czar Vlad's dreams of naval prowess are taking a hit..... Annexing the territory of vital trade partners will put dampner on making naval ships go from A-to-B.

Rogozin admits Ukraine crisis hurting frigate programmes

Karl Soper, Washington, DC and Peter Dunai, Budapest - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

03 June 2015

Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin has acknowledged that the construction of surface ships for the Russian Navy has "idled" due to the non-delivery of gas turbine engines from Ukraine.

Kiev suspended military-technical co-operation with Moscow in April 2014 and formally voided their bilateral treaty in May 2015.

Rogozin's 29 May comments follow those by United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) vice-president Igor Ponomarev on 23 May, in which he said that the Yantar shipyard had only received engines for the first three of six Project 11356 Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates from Ukrainian manufacturer Zorya-Mashproyekt.

Russian engines are needed for the final three units, and obtaining them could necessitate a "correction" in the schedule for completing them, Ponomarev added.

Strange that Russia can't even put a gas turbine together themselves.

BoJack Horseman

President Porshenko has curiously appointed former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili as the governor of the Odessa province.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/opinion/article/poroshenko-is-taking-a-gamble-on-saakashvili-op-ed/523211.html

Who knows what way that will go. Saakashvili comes across as a bit of a buffoon, but apparently had good success with economic reform in Georgia.

Dannyboy83

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

President Porshenko has curiously appointed former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili as the governor of the Odessa province.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/opinion/article/poroshenko-is-taking-a-gamble-on-saakashvili-op-ed/523211.html

Who knows what way that will go. Saakashvili comes across as a bit of a buffoon, but apparently had good success with economic reform in Georgia.

I think it's a good move for Ukraine, his major success was in hugely reducing corruption in Georgia, something which the Ukrainians drastically need as it is inhibiting external assistance.

http://www.tol.org/client/article/24732-georgians-to-the-rescue-in-ukraine.html
Georgians to the Rescue in Ukraine
Georgia, ranks 50th on the corruption index, ahead of some of the newer EU member states, such as the Czech Republic and Croatia, and significantly higher than Georgia’s immediate neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia (ranked 126th and 94th, respectively).

Georgia is performing better than Ukraine in economic terms as well: according to World Bank data, nearly every year since 2004 its GDP growth has bested that of Ukraine, though their starting points were roughly the same

On the other hand, I think it's a dangerous move for Saakashvili, he will almost certainly be poisoned.

Count Dooku

Ukrainian army moving east, looks like Poroshenko decided to go for big war

gandalf

Count Dooku wrote: »

Ukrainian army moving east, looks like Poroshenko decided to go for big war

Or it looks like he is getting prepared for a new Russian onslaught.

Lots of reports of Russians sending tanks and heavy weapons to the border for weeks now.

BoJack Horseman

Count Dooku wrote: »

Ukrainian army moving east, looks like Poroshenko decided to go for big war

If only!

A convoy of APCs & a handful of MLRS is nothing close to putting the heavy kit in the mix & all out war.

Can anyone identity the missile mount on the side of the BTRs?
It looks to me like a strela launcher?
An anti-armour missile would make much more sense.
** edit ** turns out they are 'Konkur' ATGMs.... Which makes much more sense.

And yes, a lot of Russian kit has been coming across the border.
A renewed Russian offensive looks inevitable for the summer (just like last year).

Elmer Blooker

Count Dooku wrote: »

Ukrainian army moving east, looks like Poroshenko decided to go for big war

You mean the NATO proxy army?
Porochenko doesn't decide anything, peace must be avoided at all costs in Ukraine.

A renewed Russian offensive looks inevitable for the summer

As usual I presume the propaganda is already written and prepared in advance.

Dannyboy83

Boris Nemtsov's daughter flees Russia:

http://europe.newsweek.com/boris-nemtsovs-daughter-flees-russia-328454

The daughter of slain Kremlin-critic Boris Nemtsov, has confirmed reports that she has left Russia after receiving threats, as she accused government propaganda outlets of encouraging the murder of her father.

Dannyboy83

Russia offers Tax Amnesty due to unprecedented capital flight

http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/09/news/economy/russia-offshore-cash-pardon/
Capital outflows from Russia tripled in 2014 to $151.5 billion, the highest amount ever recorded. And 2015 is not looking much better, with $32.6 billion fleeing the country in the first quarter, according to the country's central bank.

BoJack Horseman

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

As usual I presume the propaganda is already written and prepared in advance.

When the Kremlin is ready, they will let you know!

robindch

gandalf wrote: »

Lots of reports of Russians sending tanks and heavy weapons to the border for weeks now.

Quite a few of those reports suggesting that the Russian soldiers who've been ordered to Ukraine's border or beyond, come increasingly from East Russia, where they're less likely to have family connections with Ukraine, and therefore, be less likely to have significant personal problems with any current or future invasion.

Elmer Blooker

gandalf wrote: »

Lots of reports of Russians sending tanks and heavy weapons to the border for weeks now.

Lots? Do you mean more Reuters regurgitation? They really know how to churn it out for the masses!

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/05/reuters-exclusive-russian-troops-near-ukraine.html

Dannyboy83

Saakashvili presents three-stage transformation program for Odesa region
http://uatoday.tv/news/saakashvili-presents-three-stage-transformation-program-for-odesa-region-436293.html

Saakashvili noted that all the above measures are aimed at combatting corruption, which is a major problem in the region.

robindch

Igor Girkin, one of the earliest of the Kremlin's guys in Donetsk, notes that only a fool would think that the pop-up separatist movements in East Ukraine were not Putin's doing:

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/10/ex-terrorist-leader-only-an-idiot-will-deny-that-the-republics-in-donbas-are-a-kremlin-creation/

Strelkov wrote:

They see the chaos that is going on there. And the chaos is quite terrible. They [the militants] come there being motivated, understanding that they were going to defend the ‘Russian world,’ but now are forced to defend regimes that were planted with the Kremlin’s support. It is useless and foolish to deny this. To think that they [the separatist “republics”] formed by themselves means making an idiot or a fool out of oneself,

BoJack Horseman

Two things I seen today:


The US Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee approved expenditure of up to $300m to assist Ukraine for the next year.
This would represent 8% of Ukraine's defence expenditure.

That is as much as Latvia spends in a year on defence.
That pays for a lot more than 140 troops training a few hundred national guardsmen.

http://news.usni.org/2015/06/09/senate-appropriations-bill-adds-12-super-hornets-1-6b-to-navy-shipbuilding

The bill also contains $789 million for European Reassurance Initiative to counter Russian aggression, $300 million to arm and train Ukrainian forces

The 43rd annual NATO & friends Baltic naval exercises are underway......

Below is a breakdown of what countries are contributing.....

Interesting to see neutral & non-NATO members Finland & Sweden contribute quite a bit.

Gatling

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Can anyone identity the missile mount on the side of the BTRs?
It looks to me like a strela launcher?
An anti-armour missile would make much more sense.
** edit ** turns out they are 'Konkur' ATGMs.... Which makes much more sense.

I believe there called Barrier Anti tank/armour launchers

IrishTrajan

Count Dooku wrote: »

Ukrainian army moving east, looks like Poroshenko decided to go for big war

It was the Russians who escalated by giving the separatists MBTs for a renewed offensive.

Count Dooku

IrishTrajan wrote: »

It was the Russians who escalated by giving the separatists MBTs for a renewed offensive.

Or to improve their defence and reduce Kyiv temptation to military solution of political problem

Gatling

Count Dooku wrote: »

Or to improve their defence and reduce Kyiv temptation to military solution of political problem

It's not a political problem it's a military problem Russian troops in another sovereign country fueling an internal conflict to suit a Kremlin agenda

BoJack Horseman

Count Dooku wrote: »

Or to improve their defence and reduce Kyiv temptation to military solution of political problem

Your off message komrade.

There are no Russian forces in Ukraine.... sure there isn't?

Elmer Blooker

Gatling wrote: »

It's not a political problem it's a military problem Russian troops in another sovereign country fueling an internal conflict to suit a Kremlin agenda

After 16 months you still can't come up with any evidence whatsoever!
Reuters? Bellingcat?

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

After 16 months you still can't come up with any evidence whatsoever!
Reuters? Bellingcat?

How much more evidence do you want .

We've (multiple posters ) have posted videos, photos ,interviews with seperatist /rebels leaders who have publicly admitted that Russian troops have siezed most of the land from Ukraine illegally.
We now have Russian special forces captured and about to face trials in Kiev .

Now what exactly would you like

Lemming

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

After 16 months you still can't come up with any evidence whatsoever!
Reuters? Bellingcat?

If you believe that Russia allows servicemen to just "go on holiday" to a foreign country taking tanks, armoured personnel carriers, BUKS (remember those?), artillery, small arms, and munitions - all of which cost a not-inconsiderable amount of Russian tax payers money and risking their loss whilst racking up costs on using all of the above, then you are either naieve in the extreme or wilfully ignorant and desperate to fit reality into some propoganda world view that reads suspiciously like the Kremlin line.

But even if you're not any of the above then explain me this; if all those servicemen are "volunteers", then just who is asking them to volunteer for combat in another country whilst being supplied by their own military's hardware?

Further consider this .... every army is like an iceberg; there is roughly a one-third : two-thirds ratio between fighting arms and support logistics. So for everyt mile the armour moves, there is a substancial fuel cost, for every shell fired, for every missile fired there is significant cost. And that's on top of basics such as food, water, and small-arms munitions as well as pay. The rebels do not have that sort of logistics back-end for all the supposed support they've suddenly just materialised. They do not have the munitions or fuel stock piles, and more importantly they do not have the means of funding ANY of this.

AbusesToilets

You realise Putin has admitted on tv that Russian troops were in the Ukraine and took part in seizure on Crimea last year, right?

Gatling

Looks like America is readying heavy equipment including MBTS, IFVs ,Heavy Artillery, and up to 3000-5000 men if plans are supported

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/world/europe/us-poised-to-put-heavy-weaponry-in-east-europe.html?_r=0&referrer=

Count Dooku

Lemming wrote: »

If you believe that Russia allows servicemen to just "go on holiday" to a foreign country taking tanks, armoured personnel carriers, BUKS (remember those?), artillery, small arms, and munitions - all of which cost a not-inconsiderable amount of Russian tax payers money and risking their loss whilst racking up costs on using all of the above, then you are either naieve in the extreme or wilfully ignorant and desperate to fit reality into some propoganda world view that reads suspiciously like the Kremlin line.

But even if you're not any of the above then explain me this; if all those servicemen are "volunteers", then just who is asking them to volunteer for combat in another country whilst being supplied by their own military's hardware?

Further consider this .... every army is like an iceberg; there is roughly a one-third : two-thirds ratio between fighting arms and support logistics. So for everyt mile the armour moves, there is a substancial fuel cost, for every shell fired, for every missile fired there is significant cost. And that's on top of basics such as food, water, and small-arms munitions as well as pay. The rebels do not have that sort of logistics back-end for all the supposed support they've suddenly just materialised. They do not have the munitions or fuel stock piles, and more importantly they do not have the means of funding ANY of this.

If British SAS can go Syria and Libya, why Russian Spetsnaz cannot do the same in Ukraine to protect local Russians from Ukrainian neo-Nazi thugs

Gatling

Count Dooku wrote: »

why Russian Spetsnaz cannot do the same in Ukraine to protect local Russians from Ukrainian neo-Nazi thugs

Does that include shooting down civilian airliners .
Or sending in tanks and heavy artillery with no mandates from the Ukrainian people to do so

Count Dooku

Gatling wrote: »

Does that include shooting down civilian airliners .
Or sending in tanks and heavy artillery with no mandates from the Ukrainian people to do so

Do you mean that allies should ask permission from Germans when they were liberating them from Hitler?

Gatling

Count Dooku wrote: »

Do you mean that allies should ask permission from Germans when they were liberating them from Hitler?

Did the Kremlin ask the same of Poland, Czechoslovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and so on and so on.

liberation, invasion, oppression, massacres

InTheTrees

Gatling wrote: »

Looks like America is readying heavy equipment including MBTS, IFVs ,Heavy Artillery, and up to 3000-5000 men if plans are supported

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/world/europe/us-poised-to-put-heavy-weaponry-in-east-europe.html?_r=0&referrer=

Oh I think the plan is going ahead alright.

Back in 2004 it was assumed the new NATO countries wouldnt need military support because Russia wasnt quite as messed up as its become.

Welcome to the new Cold War. Next we wait it out and see who's economy collapses first.

Manach

Slightly OT on the Russian embargo, but reading from a book on Russian IT (Spam Wars by Krebs) it would seem that the Russian state is adapt at developing alternatives. For instance the curbs on financial and carding industry is being bypassed by an effort to create home-grown alternatives with an even more intertwinned links between the Russian establishment & security services.

Lemming

Count Dooku wrote: »

If British SAS can go Syria and Libya, why Russian Spetsnaz cannot do the same in Ukraine to protect local Russians from Ukrainian neo-Nazi thugs

Whataboutwhataboutwhataboutwhataboutwhatabout .. ...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Please! If your argument is falling apart around your ears, try and talk about someone else eh? Ye olde tried, tested, and very easily spotted tired tactic of olde.

This thread is not about the British SAS, and if you want to start a thread discussing their being in Libya and/or Syria, then feel free to do so. Incidentally, NATO had a mandate to operate in Libya.

Lemming

Manach wrote: »

Slightly OT on the Russian embargo, but reading from a book on Russian IT (Spam Wars by Krebs) it would seem that the Russian state is adapt at developing alternatives. For instance the curbs on financial and carding industry is being bypassed by an effort to create home-grown alternatives with an even more intertwinned links between the Russian establishment & security services.

TBH, that's a bit like applying a sticky plaster over a sucking chest wound; i.e. it ain't going to end well. The Soviet Union fell apart with no small part due to economic inefficiency/corruption (if we set the obvious political landscape to one side). The union bred corruption, gave little or no incentive for workers to improve themselves or the processes and activities on which they worked, and generally haemmorraged money for little return. Mixing the state into the running of private businesses to such a degree is just going to end up back in the same situation in the long run.

IrishTrajan

Lemming wrote: »

Whataboutwhataboutwhataboutwhataboutwhatabout .. ...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Please! If your argument is falling apart around your ears, try and talk about someone else eh? Ye olde tried, tested, and very easily spotted tired tactic of olde.

We're at Stage Three... http://i.imgur.com/ka4Gmd0.png

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Looks like America is readying heavy equipment including MBTS, IFVs ,Heavy Artillery, and up to 3000-5000 men if plans are supported

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/world/europe/us-poised-to-put-heavy-weaponry-in-east-europe.html?_r=0&referrer=

1 armoured brigade.... Spread over 6 nations. ..

The bots will jump all over that like its a threat to mother Russia.

Its a small diplomatic card to play, but militarily, its something even the Irish army can overwhelm.