Ukrainian Conflict 2014 - ? (Take II)

Elmer Blooker

Lemming wrote: »

Incidentally, NATO had a mandate to operate in Libya.

What are you talking about? Is "operate" the latest word for war crimes among you lot?

In July 2011, NATO aircraft bombed Libya’s main water supply facility, which provided water to approximately 70 percent of the nation’s population.

Criminals.

http://www.projectcensored.org/8-nato-war-crimes-in-libya/

We now have Russian special forces captured and about to face trials in Kiev .

TWO ex Russian forces. Big difference to the 15,000 "witnessed" by Shaun Walker last August.

Grayson

This should make for an interesting watch.

Count Dooku

Grayson wrote: »

This should make for an interesting watch.

Everybody makes selfies on holidays, why Russians should differ?

Grayson

Count Dooku wrote: »

Everybody makes selfies on holidays, why Russians should differ?

It's not really a holiday when they're working.

Count Dooku

Grayson wrote: »

It's not really a holiday when they're working.

Why they cannot use their expertise while they are on holidays?

BoJack Horseman

Count Dooku wrote: »

Why they cannot use their expertise while they are on holidays?

Too true Boris.

And nothing says "family holiday" like driving a T80 into another country!

IrishTrajan

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Too true Boris.

And nothing says "family holiday" like driving a T80 into another country!

I really want someone to photoshop that Ice Cube film "Are we there yet" to have screen time with Ivan and his three children (the youngest drinking from his father's army-issued vodka bottle) driving the new Armata into Ukraine.

Grayson

Here's the vice reports

BoJack Horseman

Grayson wrote: »

Here's the vice reports

So, what we've known since day 1.

Interesting that the Russian troops were the better behaved than the rebels.

Grayson

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

So, what we've known since day 1.

Interesting that the Russian troops were the better behaved than the rebels.

I have to admit it, I smiled at that bit. The "Scum" stealing vodka that had been saved fo the grannie

Gatling

Here's the latest from Vladimir Putin. The last quote is comedy gold

Tension has flared with the West over Moscow's role in the Ukraine crisis, in which pro-Russian separatist forces have seized a large part of the country's east after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

"We will be forced to aim our armed forces ... at those territories from where the threat comes," Putin told a joint news conference with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto after talks at a presidential residence outside Moscow.

Putin noted that Russia was most concerned about a long-running NATO project to build a missile defense system in Europe. Moscow has repeatedly expressed opposition to that, and earlier on Tuesday Putin said Russia would add more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles to its nuclear arsenal this year.

"It is NATO that is moving towards our border and we aren't moving anywhere," he said.

Dannyboy83

asset seizure has begun in relation to the Yukos ruling in the Hague last year

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/18/us-russia-yukos-idUSKBN0OY1FS20150618
Russia's Interfax news agency said a Belgian arbitration court had ruled in favor of a group of former shareholders about seizing Russian state property worth 1.65 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in Belgium.

An international arbitration court ruled last July that Russia must pay $50 billion for expropriating the assets of Yukos, which was once Russia's biggest oil producer and was run by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a businessman who used to be Russia's richest man but fell out with the Kremlin.

The GML group of former shareholders who made the claim said then it would be hard to get Moscow to pay, so it started "recognition proceedings" in Britain, the United States, Belgium and France to enforce the decision in their capitals.

Minor unrest in Kaliningrad

http://www.rferl.org/content/rumblings-in-russias-western-outpost-power-vertical-blog/27039567.html
In elections to the local council in Kaliningrad Oblast's Baltisky district, the ruling United Russia party failed to secure even a single seat. Turnout was 47.7 percent, unusually high for a local council election.

The online newspaper Gazeta.ru called it "a crushing defeat" for the party of power.

IrishTrajan

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

asset seizure has begun in relation to the Yukos ruling in the Hague last year

If only the Ruskis had annoyed the Irish. I know there's at least one company who wants their hands on those Russian mines here.

Dannyboy83

Some interesting posts from Constantin Gurgdiev's "True Economics" blog:

Constantin Gurgdiev seems to think Russia is in trouble - sanctions or no sanctions

"Russian's economy problem is not crises-linked volatility. Instead, it is structural:"

IMF Tells Kiev: "Default"
..
1) IMF is trying to hedge the risk of future (not current) slippage in the programme and insulate the funds it supplies from being exhausted on debt servicing and repayments. This means the IMF is seeing Ukraine as a huge risk engagement at this stage and is doing preemptive damage control. All the talk about debt sustainability under the IMF programme is a fig leaf of decorum: even if haircuts are delivered as planned, IMF sees big risk of programme being derailed and wants its money ring-fenced.
2) IMF is also trying to re-establish some sort of an independent agency reputation, post-European experience.

Ukraine's default is now a matter of days, unless private bondholders surrender.

Count Dooku

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Constantin Gurgdiev seems to think Russia is in trouble - sanctions or no sanctions

It called Dutch disease

Public_Enema

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

1 armoured brigade.... Spread over 6 nations. ..

No NATO expansion eastwards and no NATO expansion up to Russia's borders. Yes that was the gentleman's agreement the Yanks made with the Russians when the Cold war ended. The Warsaw pact is long dissolved and yet here we have NATO, doing everything it said it wouldn't do. Since there is no Soviet Union anymore and there is no Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. You have to ask, why does NATO even still exist?

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The bots will jump all over that like its a threat to mother Russia.

I notice the term Bots, seems to be common utterance from those, who seemingly wish to suppress & dissuade an alternative viewpoint. It would be a great day for this site, if the powers that be would dish out the appropriate bans for posters who spew such nonsense imo.

oscarBravo

Public_Enema wrote: »

You have to ask, why does NATO even still exist?

Sez he, while Russia invades its neighbours.

gandalf

NATO existing actually suits Putin, it allows him have a bad guy to propagandise the Russian people with while he and his cronies feather their nests while the populace is distracted.

If Russia respected it's neighbours then NATO would eventually cease to exist, it doesn't hence NATO still has a purpose. And I wouldn't blame the former satellite states of the Soviet Union from joining any organisation that protects them from Russia. That is how NATO is now at Russia's borders, it's an organisation that countries have to join to expand.

IrishTrajan

Public_Enema wrote: »

No NATO expansion eastwards and no NATO expansion up to Russia's borders. Yes that was the gentleman's agreement the Yanks made with the Russians when the Cold war ended.

As opposed to the actual spheres of influence agreement between the US, UK, and USSR, that Stalin broke quite happily? "Waah, the mean boys are doing the exact same thing I did, how unfair, waah!"

M.G.: The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a singe Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and [German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich] Genscher talked about it.
- http://rbth.com/international/2014/10/16/mikhail_gorbachev_i_am_against_all_walls_40673.html)

K-9

Public_Enema wrote: »

I notice the term Bots, seems to be common utterance from those, who seemingly wish to suppress & dissuade an alternative viewpoint. It would be a great day for this site, if the powers that be would dish out the appropriate bans for posters who spew such nonsense imo.

Mod:

If somebody accuses a poster of being a bot that's personal abuse and we can act on it. We have had a few "bot" type registered accounts on here though, they do exist. We ask posters to report any suspected users and we'll check it out.

So no personal accusation but "bots" do exist unfortunately and I don't think we can ban mention of a real political term.

Grayson

K-9 wrote: »

Mod:

If somebody accuses a poster of being a bot that's personal abuse and we can act on it. We have had a few "bot" type registered accounts on here though, they do exist. We ask posters to report any suspected users and we'll check it out.

So no personal accusation but "bots" do exist unfortunately and I don't think we can ban mention of a real political term.

So says you

Public_Enema

oscarBravo wrote: »

Sez he, while Russia invades its neighbours.

Yes, let's just conveniently overlook the unnecessary expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended. Yes, let's just conveniently overlook it's provocative push up to Russia's borders during the last two decades. Now let's put the shoe on the other foot. If a Russian military alliance had pushed up to the borders of the United States, World War 3 would have probably have ended 10 years ago.

Gatling

Public_Enema wrote: »

Yes, let's just conveniently overlook the unnecessary expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended. Yes, let's just conveniently overlook it's provocative push up to Russia's borders during the last two decades. Now let's put the shoe on the other foot. If a Russian military alliance had pushed up to the borders of the United States, World War 3 would have probably have ended 10 years ago.

Proof in the pudding that Russia can't and should never be trusted .
Russia fears freedom and democracy more than it fears nato .
Nato doesn't make threats of nuclear weapons every 6 months .

BoJack Horseman

I love the innane 'what ifs'.

If Russia approached Canada/Mexico for military alliance, they'd be laughed out of the room.

Such an utterly irrelevant counter-point.

IrishTrajan

Public_Enema wrote: »

Yes, let's just conveniently overlook the unnecessary expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended. Yes, let's just conveniently overlook it's provocative push up to Russia's borders during the last two decades. Now let's put the shoe on the other foot. If a Russian military alliance had pushed up to the borders of the United States, World War 3 would have probably have ended 10 years ago.

"Unnecessary". Do you think, after witnessing Russia's involvement in Georgia and Ukraine, that the Baltics made an unnecessary decision? I sure as hell don't.

And the Russians did renege on their deals and push their borders. They went back on the "spheres of influence" deal with the British in every country except Greece.

ticklemetoe

K-9 wrote: »

Mod:

If somebody accuses a poster of being a bot that's personal abuse and we can act on it. We have had a few "bot" type registered accounts on here though, they do exist. .

do you really think the Kremlin gives a rats ass what is posted on a rinky dink irish forum?
delusions of grandeur?

BoJack Horseman

IrishTrajan wrote: »

"Unnecessary". Do you think, after witnessing Russia's involvement in Georgia and Ukraine, that the Baltics made an unnecessary decision? I sure as hell don't.

And the Russians did renege on their deals and push their borders. They went back on the "spheres of influence" deal with the British in every country except Greece.

The truism goes...

Join NATO & the EU, become safe & prosper.
Don't? Then you don't.

ticklemetoe

looks like the west has hit a dead end in ukraine and are now stirring up trouble in armenia.
the western economies must be much worse that we know they are, the west is itching for a big war with either Russia, china or ISIS. Any conflict will do to jump start the economic growth of the west

Elmer Blooker

ticklemetoe wrote: »

looks like the west has hit a dead end in ukraine and are now stirring up trouble in armenia.
the western economies must be much worse that we know they are, the west is itching for a big war with either Russia, china or ISIS. Any conflict will do to jump start the economic growth of the west

Yeah, spot on, its called the military-industrial complex.

ticklemetoe

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yeah, spot on, its called the military-industrial complex.

its incredibly sad, these filthy rich pigs already have more money than they can spend and want more, they don't care how many die and suffer just as long as the number in a bank account gets bigger.

One sign of hope for us is i see is the USA they are talking about national service, the draft in another name. Lots of people not happy, brings back memories of Vietnam and the rich draft dodging, with a bit of luck if they can't fill the ranks of their army the USA can't go on the offensive. Give us a few more years of peace before the figure out something to fan the flames of war.

BoJack Horseman

ticklemetoe wrote: »

One sign of hope for us is i see is the USA they are talking about national service,

Welcome very new fish.

Link?
(One not written by 'Tyler Durden')

IrishTrajan

ticklemetoe wrote: »

looks like the west has hit a dead end in ukraine and are now stirring up trouble in armenia.
the western economies must be much worse that we know they are, the west is itching for a big war with either Russia, china or ISIS. Any conflict will do to jump start the economic growth of the west

When your economy is stagnant a war drains the economy and leaves it worse off. It is only when your economy is booming would a war benefit your economy. Compare the Korean War and the Vietnam War. One was fought during a booming economy and was a success, the other was fought with a declining economy and was an abject failure.


But, of course, there is no room for facts here, you see only the evil MIC and the CIA and all that jazz.

Public_Enema

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If Russia approached Canada/Mexico for military alliance, they'd be laughed out of the room.

Such an utterly irrelevant counter-point.

By stating if the shoe was on the other foot in my previous post. I really couldn't have made my point any more simplistic for you. You being deliberately imperceptive was quite predictable though.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The truism goes...

Join NATO & the EU, become safe & prosper.
Don't? Then you don't.

Christ, I nearly vomited there, the Goebbelsesque propaganda speak was that strong.

BoJack Horseman

Public_Enema wrote: »

By stating if the shoe was on the other foot in my previous post.

Round here friend, we call it 'whataboutery in defence of tyranny'

Christ, I nearly vomited there, the Goebbelsesque propaganda speak was that strong.

Facts speak for themselves guy.
There is plenty of data out there.

Just look at the economic development & quality of life improvements in the 3 Baltic states vs that of Moldova, Ukraine & Belarus who weren't so lucky in ditching the grip of the dying empire.

Count Dooku

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Just look at the economic development & quality of life improvements in the 3 Baltic states vs that of Moldova, Ukraine & Belarus who weren't so lucky in ditching the grip of the dying empire.

Mostly because they managed to send excess of workforce to UK and Ireland and live on money sent their emigrants back to home. Europe is not big enough to accommodate migrant millions of workers from Ukraine & Belarus

BoJack Horseman

Count Dooku wrote: »

Mostly because they managed to send excess of workforce to UK and Ireland and live on money sent their emigrants back to home. Europe is not big enough to accommodate migrant millions of workers from Ukraine & Belarus

Mostly?

Can you support with data Comrade?

Nothing to do with free trade, market liberalisation & labour reform?

And plenty of unfortunates from Ukraine & Belarus still enter the EU anyway.

Fun fact for Putinistas..... After Syrians, the 2nd most common people claiming asylum in the EU in 2013/14 is .... Russians.

Gatling

I see the Dutch authorities have penciled in October for the release of the MH 17 investigation report

Count Dooku

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Can you support with data Comrade?

Latvia makes 2.5% of GDP from personal remittances, Lithuania - 4.4%
And this is before multiplication effect
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Nothing to do with free trade, market liberalisation & labour reform?

If it would really work, population wouldn't decline so dramatically

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Fun fact for Putinistas..... After Syrians, the 2nd most common people claiming asylum in the EU in 2013/14 is .... Russians.

It was true only for 2013, but sharply changed in 2014

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_statistics

IrishTrajan

Count Dooku wrote: »

Latvia makes 2.5% of GDP from personal remittances, Lithuania - 4.4%

So the other 97.5% isn't made from remittances. You said their development stems mostly from personal remittances. I don't know about you, but 2.5% doesn't seem that huge.

Count Dooku wrote: »

If it would really work, population wouldn't decline so dramatically

The dramatic decline means that it had to be policies 20, 30, 50 years previously that led to a change in the demographics. Russia is suffering just as badly with its demographics.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Natural_Population_Growth_of_Russia.PNG/450px-Natural_Population_Growth_of_Russia.PNG


Notice how Russia's crack coincides with both Latvia's and Estonia's?

Count Dooku

IrishTrajan wrote: »

So the other 97.5% isn't made from remittances. You said their development stems mostly from personal remittances. I don't know about you, but 2.5% doesn't seem that huge.

This is why I mentioned multiplication effect

IrishTrajan wrote: »

Russia is suffering just as badly with its demographics.

Not really


Latvia Is A Success Story, If By 'Success Story' You Mean 'Disaster' - Forbes

IrishTrajan

Count Dooku wrote: »

Not really


Latvia Is A Success Story, If By 'Success Story' You Mean 'Disaster' - Forbes

First you compared Latvia's population from 1950 until now (which followed a similar curve as Russia from that point), and now you change it from 2000 until 2012. Cutting it at a such a short term is ridiculous.

And comparing total GDP between Russia and Latvia is farcical. Latvia is never going to be a world power, it doesn't make sense to compare total GDP, rather you should compare the GDP per capita as a measurement of standard of living... And Latvia's is higher than Russia's. As a matter of fact, the Baltics are all higher than those who didn't join the EU: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine.


This argument came from the point that the Baltics prospered as part of the European Union, whilst Ukraine/Belarus/Russia did not. You've tried to morph this into comparing Latvia's position in the world against Russia's, when it was never going to compete with Russia anyway, and we were comparing living standards.

It is absolutely true that living standards are higher in the Baltics than in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, and no amount of "what about total population" is going to change that.

Just watching a BBC News 24 programme called HARDtalk. It's about Russia's far east around Vladivostok, on Russia's border with China and North Korea, near Japan.

If the BBC spin on it is to be believed Russia is in huge trouble with "only 6 million people living in an area the size of Europe". Russia is dependent on Chinese and Korean investment and rents out millions of acres to companies from those countries who produce all sorts of crops on the land as there are not enough Russians. In fact, Russians are leaving despite the huge strategic importance of this land for Russia. The programme repeatedly made the point that Russia's future is in the east, not the west.

Why, therefore, does Putin's government not solve its problem there by offering free land and other privileges to self-declared Russians in Ukraine etc and focus on building a real Russian population in the east? (Aside from farming, Russia depends almost entirely on Chinese workers to build up cities like Vladivostok)

glued

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Just watching a BBC News 24 programme called HARDtalk. It's about Russia's far east around Vladivostok, on Russia's border with China and North Korea, near Japan.

If the BBC spin on it is to be believed Russia is in huge trouble with "only 6 million people living in an area the size of Europe". Russia is dependent on Chinese and Korean investment and rents out millions of acres to companies from those countries who produce all sorts of crops on the land as there are not enough Russians. In fact, Russians are leaving despite the huge strategic importance of this land for Russia. The programme repeatedly made the point that Russia's future is in the east, not the west.

Why, therefore, does Putin's government not solve its problem there by offering free land and other privileges to self-declared Russians in Ukraine etc and focus on building a real Russian population in the east? (Aside from farming, Russia depends almost entirely on Chinese workers to build up cities like Vladivostok)

It suits Putin to have Russians in Ukraine. Culturally Eastern Russia is not all that different but it's vastly isolated. You would be better off in rural Ukraine than living in Eastern Russia. There are massive problems with education, policing, transport and water in Eastern Russia. The investment would outweigh the benefits. The infrastructure in general is extremely poor and most people get back to modern civilisation by plane as opposed to driving or the trans-Siberian railway.

There are re-population programmes but they are failing. The population has been declining year-on-year for nearly two decades. It'll be very hard to populate the region significantly considering the poor infrastructure.

Dannyboy83

Deleted User wrote: »

Russia is dependent on Chinese and Korean investment and rents out millions of acres to companies from those countries who produce all sorts of crops on the land as there are not enough Russians.

Vice had an interesting documentary on the North Korean slave labour camps in Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awQDLoOnkdI

Count Dooku

IrishTrajan wrote: »

First you compared Latvia's population from 1950 until now (which followed a similar curve as Russia from that point), and now you change it from 2000 until 2012. Cutting it at a such a short term is ridiculous.

And comparing total GDP between Russia and Latvia is farcical. Latvia is never going to be a world power, it doesn't make sense to compare total GDP, rather you should compare the GDP per capita as a measurement of standard of living... And Latvia's is higher than Russia's. As a matter of fact, the Baltics are all higher than those who didn't join the EU: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine.


This argument came from the point that the Baltics prospered as part of the European Union, whilst Ukraine/Belarus/Russia did not. You've tried to morph this into comparing Latvia's position in the world against Russia's, when it was never going to compete with Russia anyway, and we were comparing living standards.

It is absolutely true that living standards are higher in the Baltics than in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, and no amount of "what about total population" is going to change that.

As I said - the main reason for that is because Baltic states managed to export excess of workforce to EU. Can work only for small countries
BTW - How Latvia's shrinking population became a security threat

Count Dooku

Ceasefire in action - Donetsk today under artillery fire from Ukrainian army

BoJack Horseman

Count Dooku wrote: »

Ceasefire in action

Just add it to the list...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(July_2015%E2%80%93present)

Count Dooku

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Just add it to the list...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(July_2015%E2%80%93present)

Your link says nothing about yesterday shelling
I prefer to trust more to video evidences rather than propaganda

Birthday party in Donetsk yesterday

InTheTrees

Count Dooku wrote: »

I prefer to trust more to video evidences rather than propaganda

And what do those video evidences prove? Not much.

Probably someone doing some creative fishing in the river.

BoJack Horseman

Next time, Ivan wants to make sure he's acting "legally".

https://news.vice.com/article/moscow-is-having-second-thoughts-about-giving-up-the-baltic-states

Russia's legal authorities are reviewing whether the ex-Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are legally independent countries, the Russian state-controlled Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday.

The move comes after two Russian legislators requested the review, suggesting that the Soviet Union illegally granted independence to the three tiny countries on the Baltic Sea in northern Europe as the communist superpower was collapsing in the early 1990s.

"The decision to recognize the Baltic States' independence is defective, as it was adopted by an unconstitutional body," an unnamed source close to the parliamentary inquiry told Interfax.