Summer 2015 - Long Range Forecasts

johndeere3350

Anyone see any forecasts?
I suppose it may be a bit too early

ComfortKid

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

NIMAN

What he/she said.

The most advanced weather forecasting can only see 10 days ahead, and thats not 100% accurate.

Any story you see now in the media that "Ireland due to bask in a summer heatwave" is all populist nonsense.

And don't listen to people chatting about them "hearing the swallows singing in March so that means its going to be a great summer" - again all bullplop.

ComfortKid

NIMAN wrote:

What he/she said.

NIMAN wrote:

The most advanced weather forecasting can only see 10 days ahead, and thats not 100% accurate.

NIMAN wrote:

Any story you see now in the media that "Ireland due to bask in a summer heatwave" is all populist nonsense.

What was the point of that? I'm sure he/she could understand what I said.

johndeere3350

ComfortKid wrote: »

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

Aye I know that but didn't MT have a summer forecast up for a few years??
I certainly recall reading one in 2013 anyway and it was bang on for the summer.

I wouldnt agree last year we got a touch of warmth like we have now before it turned ****e again.

NIMAN

ComfortKid wrote: »

What was the point of that? I'm sure he/she could understand what I said.

Get over yourself
:rolleyes:

So the thread should be closed after you replied?

NIMAN

johndeere3350 wrote: »

Aye I know that but didn't MT have a summer forecast up for a few years??
I certainly recall reading one in 2013 anyway and it was bang on for the summer.

I wouldnt agree last year we got a touch of warmth like we have now before it turned ****e again.

Guess often enough and you'll get it right sometimes.

ComfortKid

NIMAN wrote:

So the thread should be closed after you replied?

No. I didn't say that. You said "Here's what he/she said" and then repeated what I had said in different words.

ComfortKid

johndeere3350 wrote:

Aye I know that but didn't MT have a summer forecast up for a few years?? I certainly recall reading one in 2013 anyway and it was bang on for the summer.

In fairness, when they tell us every year is going to be a scorcher, they're bound to get it right once. Hope these last few weeks isn't our summer anyway.

Cee-Jay-Cee

ComfortKid wrote: »

No. I didn't say that. You said "Here's what he/she said" and then repeated what I had said in different words.

So what???? Quit clogging up a topical subject with petty issues.

ComfortKid

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote:

So what???? Quit clogging up a topical subject with petty issues.

Why would he put "Here's what he/she said" ?

And il clog up what I like,thanks.

NIMAN

ComfortKid wrote: »

In fairness, when they tell us every year is going to be a scorcher, they're bound to get it right once. Hope these last few weeks isn't our summer anyway.

Why are you repeating what I said in #7 just using different words?;)

Lumi

Quit the bickering guys.
If you have an issue with a post then report it and let the mods deal with it - that's what we're here for.

Thanks

NIMAN

Let's hug and make up, what you say!

gerrybhoy

get a room folks, maybe the heat is getting to some of us;)

Wont be long til the Express has the "Ireland to bask in 80+ degree's heat"

"Breaking all records since records began"


Then we will be ball deep in snow

Lumi

The Netweather long-range forecast up to July is available here

May - wetter than average, temps close to or slightly warmer than average
June - warmer than average, rainfall close to normal
July - wetter than average

Take this with the usual great big pinch of salt :pac:

NIMAN

But Lumi, is that website any more credible than me or you having a guess?

Lumi

NIMAN wrote: »

But Lumi, is that website any more credible than me or you having a guess?

You mean is the long-range forecast credible and not the website because as a company Netweather are well respected.

The beginning of the forecast states that

It is important to bear in mind that forecasting at this range is still in its infancy so can effectively be considered experimental.

so that probably answers your question. Personally I don't put much faith in long-range seasonal forecasts but each to their own. The OP asked a question and I pointed them in the direction of one

NIMAN

I wonder what Evelyn Cusack would have to say about it!

Rikand

NIMAN wrote: »

I wonder what Evelyn Cusack would have to say about it!

5starpool

ComfortKid wrote: »

No. I didn't say that. You said "Here's what he/she said" and then repeated what I had said in different words.

Sorry to drag this up again, but I think there was just confusion on your part.

They didn't post to rephrase you. The line "What he/she said" is basically just NIMAN saying that he/she agrees with you, and then they gave their own thoughts (which happened to agree with you). If instead of "What he/she said" they posted "I agree with the poster above" and then said everythnig else they said I assume you wouldn't have had an issue? That is essentially what happened, and it's just a misunderstanding on your part imo.

Sorry mods, just adding (I hope) clarity that might help ComfortKid in future in case it happens again.

ComfortKid

5starpool wrote:

They didn't post to rephrase you. The line "What he/she said" is basically just NIMAN saying that he/she agrees with you, and then they gave their own thoughts (which happened to agree with you). If instead of "What he/she said" they posted "I agree with the poster above" and then said everythnig else they said I assume you wouldn't have had an issue? That is essentially what happened, and it's just a misunderstanding on your part imo.

Aha. Thank you, And apologies to NIMAN if this is the case.

KungPao

gerrybhoy wrote: »

get a room folks, maybe the heat is getting to some of us;)

Wont be long til the Express has the "Ireland to bask in 80+ degree's heat"

"Breaking all records since records began"


Then we will be ball deep in snow

Ah, the 'ol 'let's use Fahrenheit to make it seem hotter than it is' trick, that the media love. Then you convert it to a measurement you actually understand and are a little disappointed!

Still, I'd be over the moon for 26 degrees + spell. I really want a nice summer! After hot spells last summer and going away in December, I have gotten quite used to wearing shorts.

Fingers crossed.

Speak Now

ComfortKid wrote: »

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

Worst long range forecast ever unless you have the stats to back it up

ComfortKid

It wasn't a forecast. Thats predicting the future, I'm just stating what happened before.

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, I read through this discussion and one thing I disagree about is having made the same forecasts each summer (or winter) hoping for a hit. That has not been my procedure nor has it been my objective. Anyone can look back and see that different years have had different forecasts (and different outcomes in terms of accuracy). Somebody mentioned those allegations in the context of the 2013 summer forecast which was (accurately as it turned out) for a hot and dry summer.

This summer, I would expect temperatures to average near or just slightly below normal values overall in Ireland, with rainfall varying from below normal in the northwest to slightly above normal in the southeast. I have published elsewhere that I expect it to be quite a wet summer in southern England but with the storm track likely to be a bit to the east of Ireland much of the time, I expect the rainfall regime as stated above.

Sunshine is likely to be close to normal or maybe a bit below normal. As summer is defined to be June, July and August in weather circles, this says nothing about May which is apparently going to be quite a wet, cloudy month with near normal temperatures. I would go with late August or early September as being the best part of this year's summer in Ireland.

So any other opinions about this summer? We will have a contest where you can make some predictions, look for it around mid-May with entries into the first week of June.

Birdnuts

The past 2 summers have been very good - particulary June/July. On the basis that 3 good summers in a row is practically unheard of in this part of the world. I would be pessimistic bout this years effort. Loved to be proved wrong of course!!

johndeere3350

Birdnuts wrote:

The past 2 summers have been very good - particulary June/July. On the basis that 3 good summers in a row is practically unheard of in this part of the world. I would be pessimistic bout this years effort. Loved to be proved wrong of course!!

It doesn't really mean that we will tho.
We could have 10 good ones just as easy as 10 bad ones.

NIMAN

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay then, I read through this discussion and one thing I disagree about is having made the same forecasts each summer (or winter) hoping for a hit. That has not been my procedure nor has it been my objective. Anyone can look back and see that different years have had different forecasts (and different outcomes in terms of accuracy). Somebody mentioned those allegations in the context of the 2013 summer forecast which was (accurately as it turned out) for a hot and dry summer.

This summer, I would expect temperatures to average near or just slightly below normal values overall in Ireland, with rainfall varying from below normal in the northwest to slightly above normal in the southeast. I have published elsewhere that I expect it to be quite a wet summer in southern England but with the storm track likely to be a bit to the east of Ireland much of the time, I expect the rainfall regime as stated above.

Sunshine is likely to be close to normal or maybe a bit below normal. As summer is defined to be June, July and August in weather circles, this says nothing about May which is apparently going to be quite a wet, cloudy month with near normal temperatures. I would go with late August or early September as being the best part of this year's summer in Ireland.

So any other opinions about this summer? We will have a contest where you can make some predictions, look for it around mid-May with entries into the first week of June.

MT,

Not trying to be a smart arse here, and I know you are a serious poster on the weather forum and put a lot of effort into your posts, but reading your prediction it sounds slightly generic. Almost like a medium doing a cold reading.

A lot of 'close to normal' entries entries, or 'from below normal to above normal'. Is that not sort of covering all bases?

gothwalk

NIMAN wrote: »

A lot of 'close to normal' entries entries, or 'from below normal to above normal'. Is that not sort of covering all bases?

Well, no. Consider the maths. Averages are calculated over a long term. Very few years (or months within a year) are actually average[1]. Forecasting something to be "about average" is just as valid a forecast as "below average", "far below average", "above average" and "far above average". If you divided up any given weather stat over the last few years (or any stat in anything, pretty nearly!), you'll see about 30% of results in the "average" range, 25% each in "below average" and "above average", and 10% each in "far below" and "far above".

Average does not mean "ah, about the same as it always is", even if that's how people read it.

[1] Ask me about average lifespans in the medieval period, and the frequently repeated statement that few people lived past 40. Go on. I have an earful for anyone who'll listen about middle ages infant mortality and the inability of journalists to understand the word "average".

Clonmel1000

I'm glad MT mentioned that summer in climatic terms is June July and August because May is like October at the moment wet cold breezy rubbish.