TRADER'S CORNER

Kilough

For ever odd wrote: »

Do Currency fair operate on a fixed daily rate or do they quote prices relative to intra-day fluctuations?

It's prices fluctuate through the day. They charge 3 per transaction and offer better rates than the banks so generally works out better.

For ever odd

All positions now closed. Had a good run all year so not going to be greedy and force things.

Bad feeling and not seeing the markets clearly at the moment (blindsided), been the main reasons.

I will be trading shorter timeframes on a technical bias, as it suits me better at this time of year.

Back to the Tight stops till October.

For ever odd

FTSE 100

For ever odd wrote: »

Broke to the downside today, 7 trading days it tried to and failed to close above 6960. Divergence on the rsi macd and stoch on the daily chart(and on a few other indices).

Post from March last year.

I think this 6960 will be a key level in the FTSE 100 and will sell at this level if it gets there today, with a 20 point stop.

I am also going take my Q of off this level for other European indicies.

BrokenArrows

dont you love those days when you login to your portfolio and everything is green for the day

drunkmonkey

What's the correlation between ETF's and Share price, for example all the indicatiors say buy Oil but sell the USO fund.
Should they not be going the same direction?

ixus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What's the correlation between ETF's and Share price, for example all the indicatiors say buy Oil but sell the USO fund.
Should they not be going the same direction?

Research oil etf's and contango/backwardation. Commodity etf's are impacted by Rolls (rolling contracts on a monthly/quarterly basis).

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/think-twice-before-buying-a-top-oil-etf-cm433169

For ever odd

Deutche Bank short order at 12.25 stop 12.45. Feeler trade, so if does break to the downside I will add to it.

100+ points target (11.25 or less), I will give it 4 days. which ever comes first.

For ever odd

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10W0MJ

Germany to tell people to stockpile food and water in case of attacks: FAS

X
(Reuters) - For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the German government plans to tell citizens to stockpile food and water in case of an attack or catastrophe, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper reported on Sunday.

Germany is currently on high alert after two Islamist attacks and a shooting rampage by a mentally unstable teenager last month. Berlin announced measures earlier this month to spend considerably more on its police and security forces and to create a special unit to counter cyber crime and terrorism.

"The population will be obliged to hold an individual supply of food for ten days," the newspaper quoted the government's "Concept for Civil Defence" - which has been prepared by the Interior Ministry - as saying.

Strange report.

If this report is true, I'd expect people to hoard cash along with their food, leading to more robberies and more social unrest.
This stockpiling could spark the very thing it was set up for.

ixus

I saw this earlier and asked myself, what would cause people to shelter in place according to that description? Nuclear/dirty bomb, biohazard, contagion or guerrilla warfare? It is very odd if true.

dasdog

The noise in the amateur thread chomp was talking about is small article distraction. OH is from Frankfurt and she's totally oblivious to any sort of hoarding. Seems to be a common group think EUR will bounce up to 1.140/5 and everyone will short the retreat, resistance levels are just short of 1.14.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Deutche Bank short order at 12.25 stop 12.45. Feeler trade, so if does break to the downside I will add to it.

100+ points target (11.25 or less), I will give it 4 days. which ever comes first.

It didn't work out, stop hit this morning. Added second trade and took a little profit to cover stop.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Traders will be watching ADP tomorrow for the run up to NFP on Friday, a big number after Fishers hawkish comments at the weekend will see September rate hike speculation.
Sandwiched in-between is important euro data and ecb meeting, oil inventories tomorrow also.

Post from 01-09-15

Could nearly work off the same, one year later.

gctest50

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has removed the clinical hold on the Phase II clinical trial of JCAR015 by Juno Therapeutics Inc.

( JUNO )

https://www.junotherapeutics.com/our-science/car-technology/

For ever odd

COPPER.

Confined to wedge pattern on weekly chart since September last year, it is approaching the lower boundary, with not much room left to move either way.

Possible breakout on the cards, which other asset classes tend to follow.

nuac

Things will liven up next week as holidays end.

Question is which way they will jump.

Feeling bearish here

For ever odd

EU data just out was roughly in line with expectations(small miss), so I think Draghi has no need to do anything. He will probably be hoping the Fed will do the heavy lifting for him (on the back of a strong NFP) .
A weak NFP on Friday would possibly see ECB jawboning in the lead up to the meeting.

ADP at 1:15 and EIA at 3:30 (GMT)

ixus

Indications are nothing next week, however, I think they should go for the surprise bazooka. (I think it all fails anyway). Reason being, going now and not December. Recall last years reaction to an actually big move by them? It also leaves only 3/4 months until the projected end of QE Mar 17. Longer it is left, the greater expectations are.

To go next week, and have FED raise at the end of Sept or in Dec would give the euro that extra move lower.

For ever odd

True, but he could just dangle the carrot of an extension, which would be enough for now. He probably will go down that route anyway but time gives him more options.

ixus

Yes. And that's exactly what happened last time. The market got so ahead of itself the week before that we sold off from the Monday and got smashed when he announced the package.

Vivid memories of the price action.

I'll be more than happy to trade a repeat of it.

For ever odd

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-04/draghi-nears-his-qe3-as-ecb-seen-relying-on-ever-more-stimulus

Good article on what to expect on Thursday's ECB meeting.

Merkels CDU party took a hiding in the local elections.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/04/mecklenburg-vorpommern-german-anti-immigrant-party-strong-regional-election-exit-polls-merkel

For ever odd

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-04/oklahoma-quake-matches-record-even-as-fracking-waste-restricted

Add this to the evacuation of gulf of Mexico rigs due to weather, it could see a short term rally after CL bounced off a long term support/ resistance on Friday morning.

For ever odd

Spike this morning in oil had nothing to do with the above analysis. Saudi oil minster signaled he is giving a major talk at 9:30 GMT.

For ever odd

"Diligence is the mother of good luck". ~ Benjamin Franklin

I will take it anyway it comes.

dasdog

Good implementation FAO got out at the right time too. ECB being fairly neutral on Thursday sent a semi believable done message. Carry Trade the first to run, a signal maybe. Sets up an interesting Sept 20/21, I can't see the BoJ doing anything substantial.

For ever odd

Cheers dasdog.

Just a quick observation - if you look at what has been happening in the markets over the last two months (longer actually, but that's fresh in the memory for example purposes), one can't help but notice that every week there is something that the media is building up to be the most important thing of the year. Never a good sign in my opinion, and it effectively means that it has been hard to hold a long term view or position until the manic bull/bears decided which one they are.


If your synopsis above is true, (one I have been thinking about all year), and this is the outcome of the G20 meeting, it would lead me to believe that with all anti-globalisation political theme that has griped worldwide, politicians might actually have no choice but to listen to the people. Tax cuts (already been flaunted) and big spend infrastructure been (the normal bribe the public) way out of it.

On that, it would positive for commodities ( Base metals and oil), but alas that is next year's trade. I will have to fiddle the thumbs while waiting for it to happen. The Eurostoxx 50 trade idea should keep me occupied till then.

For ever odd

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought some Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) during the week, when it was announced that the FDA will decide on their Duchenne Muscle Dystrophy drug next month. A genetic condition with currently no treatment.
Bought in two tranches at $16.70 and $15.15.
It then fell to a low of $14.26 on Wednesday before it was announced that insiders had bought $2.5 million worth of stock directly on the stock market, which was great news for shareholders.
Currently at $18. It's 50 day movement average is in the $13s and the 200 day moving average is in the $27s.
Planning on selling half before the decision and the rest for the risky outcome. The only thing going against it seems to be the small sample of clinical cases in the trial, but parents who have had the drugs used on their children are pleading for it to be approved.
US Congress in the past couple of years had asked for the drug to be approved given there is currently no treatment and life expectancy at most is mid 20s.
That is my biggest trade of the year so far. Expect it to get well into the 20s at least before the FDA decide if it goes way higher or way way lower.
With the FDA, who knows.

Delighted for ya.

ftse100

For ever odd wrote: »

Delighted for ya.

This was a great trade. Great research, Well Done.

BrokenArrows

For ever odd wrote: »

Delighted for ya.

Dont know if he held onto them.
He has another post saying he sold most of his holding in april.

BrokenArrows

Is there any reliable website which keeps track of upcoming OPEC events and scheduled announcements?

chompdown

You were saying earlier that you should stay away from trading oil so maybe best to avoid?

BrokenArrows

chompdown wrote: »

You were saying earlier that you should stay away from trading oil so maybe best to avoid?

I dont intend on trading it directory. But decisions made by the OPEC have knock on effects to the profits of other industries.

ixus

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Is there any reliable website which keeps track of upcoming OPEC events and scheduled announcements?

The opec website maybe?!

#OOTT also a good oil stream on twitter

ftse100

Anybody Trading on the Back of the Fed Decision later?

For ever odd

ftse100 wrote: »

Anybody Trading on the Back of the Fed Decision later?

Nah, as much as love action, I'm gonna sit this one out.

The simple way I'm looking at it is...

A) They don't raise and hint at a hike in December.
They raise rates.
C) They don't raise and no indication of hike in December.

The next big focus after this, is the US election, so B or C would give a clear direction to the market regardless of whom wins.

dasdog

Nothing on the table and no intentions to get involved right now. Not the most endearing comment from Saxo...

We would like for Fed chair Janet Yellen, supposedly a labour economist concerned with inequality, to admit today that the Fed has been the chief driver of inequality by pumping asset markets while the real economy languishes, and that the Fed needs to hike rates to counter the risks to financial stability, not because of anything to do with the real economy. ZIRP and QE are driving inequality and the very real possibility of a Donald Trump presidency. But don’t expect the academics at the Fed to admit that they get this just yet.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

Yes. And that's exactly what happened last time. The market got so ahead of itself the week before that we sold off from the Monday and got smashed when he announced the package.

Vivid memories of the price action.

I'll be more than happy to trade a repeat of it.

With the FED giving an "A" last night, it looks like you're not the only one to follow last year's form.

Do you think it can play out similar enough? (Barring black Swan event of course).

drunkmonkey

Yahoo has to be worth a short tomorrow....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/22/technology/yahoo-data-breach/

For ever odd

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yahoo has to be worth a short tomorrow....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/22/technology/yahoo-data-breach/

Imagine the carnage If it was Facebook or Twitter and the likes...

People will probably go out and buy the likes of mcafee, Norton, Bullguard and the likes, instead of the free ones they downloaded. Make em feel safer..

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

COPPER.

Confined to wedge pattern on weekly chart since September last year, it is approaching the lower boundary, with not much room left to move either way.

Possible breakout on the cards, which other asset classes tend to follow.

Still in wedge Pattern, at the upper boundary this time. I have to take a short here, right or wrong I have to remain true to my analysis. Stop behind second last swing high.

Some amount of FED speakers this week, including Yellen.
Draghi and kuroda speaking also.

OPEC meeting.

Deutsche Bank is tanking.

This week is a scalpers paradise.

EDIT: First debate between Trump and Clinton, winner takes all, in my view.

For ever odd

From February

For ever odd wrote: »

Today was a non event in the oil meeting between Russia, Saudi and Venezuela OPEC . A production freeze at January levels 32.5/33 MILLION BOPD(which is substantial) is hardly a problem solving solution.
It may in fact, just be a feeler, to see how other oil producing nations react to the news.
A baby step in the long road to oil price recovery.... who knows, but in a standoff, whom ever moves first is usually the loser.

Anyone think the US Frackers/big oil or Canada will freeze production? Can't see it happening just yet.

el diablo

For ever odd wrote: »

From February



Anyone think the US Frackers/big oil or Canada will freeze production? Can't see it happening just yet.

Definitely can't see the big Canadian oil patch companies freezing production. They're producing more than ever right now.

ixus

Opec know all this. Two/three ways to look at it.

1. There has been a huge shift in policy by Saudi. They have given up on flooding the market to knock weaker out. They have also patched up relations (for now) with Iran.

2. Supply right now is high. If demand remains the same and they stick to this agreement, with Russia, global imbalances will realign at a more rapid pace over next 12 months.

3. Is it buy the rumour, sell the news? I'm not so sure. Look how markets rallied into previous freeze talks. That was with Venezuala etc making all the noise. We now have the big guns making noise and taking action. If, and a big if, they manage to co-operate, a lot of punters will be caught offside and there will be a reluctance to take big short positions from here through to opec on Nov 30th for fear Saudi double down.

There is an air of disbelief amongst Traders and journos that this has happened. There hasn't been a cut since 2008. A lot of people may not have seen this before.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

Opec know all this. Two/three ways to look at it.

1. There has been a huge shift in policy by Saudi. They have given up on flooding the market to knock weaker out. They have also patched up relations (for now) with Iran.

2. Supply right now is high. If demand remains the same and they stick to this agreement, with Russia, global imbalances will realign at a more rapid pace over next 12 months.

3. Is it buy the rumour, sell the news? I'm not so sure. Look how markets rallied into previous freeze talks. That was with Venezuala etc making all the noise. We now have the big guns making noise and taking action. If, and a big if, they manage to co-operate, a lot of punters will be caught offside and there will be a reluctance to take big short positions from here through to opec onNov 30th for fear Saudi double down.

There is an air of disbelief amongst Traders and journos that this has happened. There hasn't been a cut since 2008. A lot of people may not have seen this before.

Yes, that's what I'm thinking.
They have clearly giving up the power position and No need for others to rush too their aid, maybe forcing that bigger cut.

In my eyes - 'You broke it, You fix it' will be the theme going forward.

For ever odd

FTSE 100

If the FTSE does not smash through the 6960/7000 zone in the next two weeks, one would think that a triple top has formed on the weekly charts and possibly a double top on the monthly.

For ever odd

If a week is a long time in politics, it certainly can ring true in the world of high finance
My goodness, it feels like a lifetime ago (to me anyhow) since the presidenal debate on Monday to Yellen talking about buying equities if (when) things go bad on Friday. Sandwiched in between was the OPEC (Saudi) decision to offer a production freeze and the Deutsch Bank saga with rumours galore.

To be honest I don't even know where to start evaluating the week, but the first thought that came into my head when I woke this morning - was there is a orchestrated effort to keep markets from crashing.

So I am not even going to try, going to chill for a few days, starting with the All Ireland, gonna whack a few bob on Mayo as it's lashing rain all morning in Dublin.

Enjoy the weekend lads.

iainBB

For ever odd wrote: »

If a week is a long time in politics, it certainly can ring true in the world of high finance
My goodness, it feels like a lifetime ago (to me anyhow) since the presidenal debate on Monday to Yellen talking about buying equities if (when) things go bad on Friday. Sandwiched in between was the OPEC (Saudi) decision to offer a production freeze and the Deutsch Bank saga with rumours galore.

To be honest I don't even know where to start evaluating the week, but the first thought that came into my head when I woke this morning - was there is a orchestrated effort to keep markets from crashing.

So I am not even going to try, going to chill for a few days, starting with the All Ireland, gonna whack a few bob on Mayo as it's lashing rain all morning in Dublin.

Enjoy the weekend lads.

Spot on ., What a week I timed the drop in oil after the deal well ,but lost out due to Russia backing the deal and price raise again, amazing how news can mess with you.

dasdog

Another in agreement. I was reading about back testing data and what to include and equally important what not to include when devising algo's, one action is do nothing, don't execute. This is a valid action.

For ever odd

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-01/sept-11-widow-first-american-sue-saudi-arabia-terrorism-her-full-lawsuit

On Friday, September 30, a woman widowed when her husband was killed at the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001 became the first American to sue the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Washington DC District Court, just two days after Congress slammed Obama for siding with Saudi Arabia, overriding his presidential veto only for the first time in his administration, and enacting legislation allowing Americans to sue foreign governments for allegedly playing a role in terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

One wonders will Saudi follow through on their threat to withdraw monies (around $750billion)from the US if this got passed.

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Another in agreement. I was reading about back testing data and what to include and equally important what not to include when devising algo's, one action is do nothing, don't execute. This is a valid action.

What book are you reading? Be careful what data you are back testing, some can be unreliable.

BrokenArrows

For ever odd wrote: »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-01/sept-11-widow-first-american-sue-saudi-arabia-terrorism-her-full-lawsuit



One wonders will Saudi follow through on their threat to withdraw monies (around $750billion)from the US if this got passed.

The concept of sueing a government for terrorist actions just brings a whole new level of insanity of the US lawsuit happy stereotype.

What courtroom would even be qualified to judge such a thing and where would it be tried? The US?