TRADER'S CORNER

ixus

www.behaviouralfinance.net

Website works but boards is acting up lately. A great site for papers on various types of behavioural finance.

arrowloopboy

Pay particular attention to the FTSE Housebuilders Q1 set up aswell as the Santa Rally set up,i've pulled 10s of 1000s out of these two trades over the past few years.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

www.behaviouralfinance.net

Website works but boards is acting up lately. A great site for papers on various types of behavioural finance.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=61638854

Why

Why do we press harder on a remote control when we know the batteries are getting weak?

Why do banks charge a fee on "insufficient funds" when they know there is not enough?

Why does someone believe you when you say there are four billion stars, but check when you say the paint is wet?

Why doesn't glue stick to the bottle?

Why do they use sterilized needles for death by lethal injection?

Why doesn't Tarzan have a beard?

Why does Superman stop bullets with his chest, but ducks when you throw a revolver at him?

Why do Kamikaze pilots wear helmets?

Whose idea was it to put an "S" in the word "lisp"?

If people evolved from apes, why are there still apes?

Why is it that no matter what color bubble bath you use the bubbles are always white?

Is there ever a day that mattresses are not on sale?

Why do people constantly return to the refrigerator with hopes that something new to eat will have materialized?

Why do people keep running over a string a dozen times with their vacuum cleaner, then reach down, pick it up, examine it, then put it down to give the vacuum one more chance?

Why is it that no plastic bag will open from the end on your first try?

How do those dead bugs get into those enclosed light fixtures?

Why is it that whenever you attempt to catch something that's falling off the table you always manage to knock something else over?

In winter why do we try to keep the house as warm as it was in summer when we complained about the heat?

How come you never hear father-in-law jokes?

If money doesn't grow on trees then why do banks have branches?

Since bread is square, then why is sandwich meat round?

Why do you have to "put your two cents in".. but it's only a
"penny for your thoughts"? Where's that extra penny going to?

Why does a round pizza come in a square box?

How is it that we put man on the moon before we figured out it
would be a good idea to put wheels on luggage?

Why is it that people say they "slept like a baby" when babies
wake up like every two hours?

If a deaf person has to go to court, is it still called a
hearing?

Why are you IN a movie, but you're ON TV?

Why do people pay to go up tall buildings & then put money in
binoculars to look at things on the ground?

How come we choose from just two people for President and fifty
for Miss America?

Why do doctors leave the room while you change? They're going
to see you naked anyway.

Why do toasters always have a setting that burns the toast to a
horrible crisp, which no decent human being would eat?

Why is there a light in the fridge and not in the freezer?

If Jimmy cracks corn and no one cares, why is there a stupid
song about him?

Can a hearse carrying a corpse drive in the carpool lane?

If the professor on Gilligan's Island can make a radio out of a
coconut, why can't he fix a hole in a boat?

Why do people point to their wrist when asking for the time,
but don't point to their crotch when they ask where the
bathroom is?

Why does Goofy stand erect while Pluto remains on all fours?
They're both dogs!

What do you call male ballerinas?

Can blind people see their dreams?

If Wyle E. Coyote had enough money to buy all that ACME crap,
why didn't he just buy dinner?

If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from
vegetables, what is baby oil made from?

If electricity comes from electrons, does morality come from
morons?

Is Disney World the only people trap operated by a mouse?

Do the Alphabet song and Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star have the
same tune?

Why did you just try singing the two songs above?

Why do they call it an asteroid when it's outside the
hemisphere, but call it a hemorrhoid when it's in your ass?

Found this and my own rhetorical question would be... Why do people time and time again buy into a bubble when they already know they shouldn't.

I think we will see one more leg up before it goes POP.

We are funny auld creatures.

jpboard1

Will be looking to get short eur/aud but need to wait for proper entry.

first aud/usd position hit profit.

For ever odd

FOMC minutes at 7.00.

http://projects.wsj.com/fed-statement-tracker/

Good Link, courtesy of dasdog

Press Release

Release Date: September 17, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.

2015 Monetary Policy Releases

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm

Fed Minutes Sept

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20150917.htm

jpboard1

Closed second AUD/USD position for profit. EUR/AUD short well green now. Oh yeah, and...


COME ON IRELAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Yeah, should be risk on in U.S Equities bringing the dollar up with it and giving Draghi a bit of breathing room.

Commodities (oil)up, Us Equities up, dollar down.

Called it wrong.

jpboard1

I would think we are at the start of a serious commodities surge.

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

I would think we are at the start of a serious commodities surge.

How long do you think this surge will last?

Which Commodities in particular?

Based on global growth, supply and demand, or fear?

We can all have a chat about it,

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

How long do you think this surge will last?

Which Commodities in particular?

Based on global growth, supply and demand, or fear?

We can all have a chat about it,

Its simply a dollar play

For ever odd

FFS. lol

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

FFS. lol

Chill out. Its Friday. :P

dasdog

Dollar weakness & rumours about OPEC cutting supply (Saudi's are feeling some pressure), recent China actions filtering through. Rumours being they key word there as it could just be a herd mentality triggering a short squeeze. Iron Ore depends on what is going on in China which none of us know. An excellent trade I saw executed just after NFP was a long basked of ZAR, CAD and AUD which were all probably oversold against the dollar. There are arguments for bulls and bears. Rising commodities versus a seemingly slowing global economy divided by a doveish Fed. Very difficult to try and call the direction IMO.

Canadian election is now in 11 days away, just an thought if WTI keeps rising in the interim.

jpboard1

dasdog wrote: »

Dollar weakness & rumours about OPEC cutting supply (Saudi's are feeling some pressure), recent China actions filtering through. Rumours being they key word there as it could just be a herd mentality triggering a short squeeze. Iron Ore depends on what is going on in China which none of us know. An excellent trade I saw executed just after NFP was a long basked of ZAR, CAD and AUD which were all probably oversold against the dollar. There are arguments for bulls and bears. Rising commodities versus a seemingly slowing global economy divided by a doveish Fed. Very difficult to try and call the direction IMO.

Canadian election is now in 11 days away, just an thought if WTI keeps rising in the interim.

I remain long Aud/Usd on the dip. Same with Cad as opportunity arises. The strong dollar is killing the markets. It has to weaken for them to drive on. When it happens we are going to see one hell of a rally in the commodity space (IMO)

ixus

For ever odd wrote: »

Commodities (oil)up, Us Equities up, dollar down.

Called it wrong.

Risk on should imply dollar down and the rest to rally. The dynamic changed slightly with ecb QE but this only caused european assets to rally in first half of year. Is clearer when you price things in euro.

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

Its simply a dollar play

"The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity".

Sometimes I forget myself and fall into the trap of thinking too much.
At the end of the day it's about making a few bob.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

Risk on should imply dollar down and the rest to rally. The dynamic changed slightly with ecb QE but this only caused european assets to rally in first half of year. Is clearer when you price things in euro.

This is what has been bothering me the last while.I am aware of the dynamics of the markets and have noticed how they have been changing the last 3-4 months.

I do not have access to the resources or stats you have, but I have that sickly feeling that the Markets are way out of kilter.

arrowloopboy

For ever odd wrote: »

"The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity".

Sometimes I forget myself and fall into the trap of thinking too much.
At the end of the day it's about making a few bob.

Yip ,ill agree with that,alot of the stuff goes straight over my head ,and I don't have time to research it,and don't much want to either ,but simple also works ,and can work very well .
A lot of guys think more input equals mor profit,this is only true to a certain extent !

jpboard1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Yip ,ill agree with that,alot of the stuff goes straight over my head ,and I don't have time to research it,and don't much want to either ,but simple also works ,and can work very well .
A lot of guys think more input equals mor profit,this is only true to a certain extent !

Its very true. No one has access to all the relevant information. Its just not possible. Its what makes trading so hard.

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

I Disagree, at the moment there is a couple of algo's running that are easy enough to read.

What ones are you using?

moneymad

jpboard1 wrote: »

Its very true. No one has access to all the relevant information. Its just not possible. Its what makes trading so hard.

Most all the info is in the price already. :pac:

jpboard1

moneymad wrote: »

Most all the info is in the price already. :pac:

Thats what they say! You a technical trader?

moneymad

jpboard1 wrote: »

Thats what they say! You a technical trader?

No. I went from using the millions of indicators to using price along with support and resistance levels.

squeezed_out

moneymad wrote: »

No. I went from using the millions of indicators to using price along with support and resistance levels.

technicals are only part of the pricing process , market mood is another , techincals can be obliterated quickly as happened august 24th

For ever odd

pajero12 wrote: »

If I ever find the lad using 1000 lots on every Brent open and Close :mad:

This could be ONE of the spoofers you were looking for.

On multiple occasions from February to April 2013, a trader named Nitin Gupta repeatedly entered large orders for crude oil, gold, silver and copper futures contracts without the intent to trade, according to CME.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/12/cme-trading-bans-idUSL1N12C1HD20151012



And if you like that kind of thing, this guy used HFT bots predictably to his advantage.

This strategy is risky -- what if people buy stock from you when you're pretending you want to sell it? -- and also sort of irreducibly stupid, as it relies on people robotically assuming that the stock is in trouble when you pretend you want to sell it, and then assuming that it's a great buy a second later when you pretend you want to buy it. But since most of the people in stock markets these days are robots, relying on them to act like robots can actually work, and you see the occasional lucrative spoofing case where someone builds a robot to out-spoof the other robots.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-13/spoofers-tricked-highspeed-traders-by-hitting-keys-fast

For ever odd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEv5vDhawFg

If noble prize winning mathematicians managed to screw it up a few years ago, it should be reasonable to assume that the new generation can screw it up even better.

So to close the loop, if you stand back and look at how mathematically complex the market's have become, it becomes clear how stupid it is.

~ so clever, it forgets to tie it's shoelaces.

arrowloopboy

For ever odd wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEv5vDhawFg

If noble prize winning mathematicians managed to screw it up a few years ago, it should be reasonable to assume that the new generation can screw it up even better.

So to close the loop, if you stand back and look at how mathematically complex the market's have become, it becomes clear how stupid it is.

~ so clever, it forgets to tie it's shoelaces.

didn't bodder watching this ,but I can imagine
simple is so under rated :D:D.

For ever odd

arrowloopboy wrote: »

didn't bodder watching this ,but I can imagine
simple is so under rated :D:D.

Howya arrow, Anything unusual with the ftse 100 and 250 companies this year? do you think santa is coming this year?

jpboard1

CAD/JPY long since last week. hopefully will see the move this week.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Possible cup and handle on the weekly charts if your senerio plays out over the Next few weeks.

What are the fundamentals like?

I think handle could be formed, closed shorts. Thanks jp!
Looking to get in long at 22651, a retrace below this level and if it comes back up through I will try my entry here.

22238 is my alternative entry 50% fib of last swing lo/Hi

Edit:
GBP/NZD trade idea in post # 158