TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

How can traders use contango to take advantage of the storage shortage for crude oil?
By Investopedia
A:
Traders with access to physical oil and storage can make substantial profits in a contango market. Other traders may seek to profit on a storage shortage by placing a spread trade betting on the contango structure of the market to increase.

Contango means that the spot price of oil is lower than future contracts for oil. A futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell a physical commodity at some point in the future. The spot market is the current cash trading price for that commodity. For example, assume that the spot price of oil is $60 a barrel. The future price of oil two months from now is trading around $65. This represents a contango futures term structure. At some point, the futures price will converge to the spot price, whether the futures price is above or below the spot price

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041315/how-can-traders-use-contango-take-advantage-storage-shortage-crude-oil.asp

For ever odd

Ahh man, I just got the whole "need for excel" thing, I can't believe it took this long for it to register. I know what I have to do now(no distractions), and it will take a while to learn in my own special way.

Lads, a big THANK YOU for all your help and tolerance throughout the year.

All the best, and I'll see you all next year!

For ever odd.

ixus

"Demand destruction" following Fridays events will take hold of the faltering gdp's i mentioned on Friday.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

"Demand destruction" following Fridays events will take hold of the faltering gdp's i mentioned on Friday.

I read this earlier too.

jcon1913

Guys

Forgive me if this is info is already available else where, but is there somewhere I can find a list of companies coming up for IPOs on London and NYSE / Nasdaq. I tried googling but all I get is a bunch of random articles / spammy stuff.

I don't mind if there is only the slog of watching the papers all the time, but maybe there is an easier way?

el diablo

jcon1913 wrote: »

Guys

Forgive me if this is info is already available else where, but is there somewhere I can find a list of companies coming up for IPOs on London and NYSE / Nasdaq. I tried googling but all I get is a bunch of random articles / spammy stuff.

I don't mind if there is only the slog of watching the papers all the time, but maybe there is an easier way?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/ipo-calendar

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

Dec Jan spread has widened in last couple of days from approx 0.90 to $1.20 breaking range as we get closer to options expiry and the Dec contract expiry in a few business days. Indicates Energy trader wants to increase their physical delivery ahead of the expiry. Plenty of supply out there in the near term.

Opec meet on Dec 4th, they've already flagged won't be cutting.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data
Front month in Brent higher than back month.
Crude narrowing steadily.

Backwardation and contango at the same time in Brent.
Inter-commodity also interesting.

Any thoughts?

ixus

There has been an operational change to Brent. A change of the monthly expiry date. As a result, there is a once of double expiry this month. Nothing to really read into.

Cl options expired today. $30 was defended as this was big strike price. The builds in inventory keep on coming. You may see the odd short cover rally but weaker prices should remain the case until production is reduced or a geopolitical event.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

ixus

It's a conflicting one for me dave. All very tempting but in terms of price action we still have:

Oil heading lower.
China never bounced and soldnoff again overnight. Bear market headlines in China if they're allowed aren't going to attract buyers.
Option expiry today has failed to sustain a bid.
ML King day Minday.

Do you read macroman?

Kerveil and SNB anniversary. Kerveil happened in Jan option expiry and came out over the weekend into ML King holiday with Emini trading limit down.

While you wouldn't expect similar, anyone in it long enough will recall and avoid. Especially with commod players in trouble.

No harm waiting until Tues and missing the bottom.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Got a tip recently when a crowd called PLS were at AUD 18 cent. They are Pilbarra Minerals and have discovered large deposits of Lithium in Western Australia and are about to go from exploration to mining of lithium. Big prospects ahead for them, they are now priced at AUD 31cent, rising 3.5cent on Friday alone. Another crowd is LIT.ASX, developed a technology for extracting lithium a lot cheaper. Lithium will be the new oil when the Chinese finally move to battery, plus the upside of all the electric cars moves.

For ever odd

Possible arb trade on glanbia at the moment, Irish and London listing at the same price at the moment.

(clear cookies and catche,if having trouble logging in)

Bateman

ixus wrote: »

It's a conflicting one for me dave. All very tempting but in terms of price action we still have:

Oil heading lower.
China never bounced and soldnoff again overnight. Bear market headlines in China if they're allowed aren't going to attract buyers.
Option expiry today has failed to sustain a bid.
ML King day Minday.

Do you read macroman?

Kerveil and SNB anniversary. Kerveil happened in Jan option expiry and came out over the weekend into ML King holiday with Emini trading limit down.

While you wouldn't expect similar, anyone in it long enough will recall and avoid. Especially with commod players in trouble.

No harm waiting until Tues and missing the bottom.

Fun times...dealt with JK in an Ops role...nice chap

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Euro stoxx 50 is floating around the 3000 level, it has not had a monthly close below 3000 since it crossed above this level in October 2013.

Buy or sell?

Probability trade coming around again, 2 more trading days left in the month after today.

D'Agger

any thoughts on twitters current stock price all?

5 executives leaving has further driven the stock down to 17USD - I'd be confident they'll bounce back over the next 5 years, they're a big company & their stock was at a high of 53USD over the last 52 weeks

I don't know much about investing but browsing for a medium term investment currently, would appreciate your thoughts

For ever odd

Twitter reporting earnings on Feb 10

I don't generally hold stocks that long, but a few questions I would be asking myself are:

Why are five executive's leaving?
Why are they trading at 52 week lows?
How do they earn their revenue?
Have they any debt?
What is their growth forecasts?
What is going to turn this around and when?
Are they a possible takeover target?

And so on.

Best of luck.

D'Agger

For ever odd wrote: »

Twitter reporting earnings on Feb 10

I don't generally hold stocks that long, but a few questions I would be asking myself are:

Why are five executive's leaving?
Why are they trading at 52 week lows?
How do they earn their revenue?
Have they any debt?
What is their growth forecasts?
What is going to turn this around and when?
Are they a possible takeover target?

And so on.

Best of luck.

Well wouldn't be adverse to holding on to them for a shorter period

Valid questions, must research more but read an article or two that said they're up to refinance loans next year but on account of their revenue from advertising they have cashflow to last a very, very long time to turn things around.

Potential takeover is something I hadn't considered, thank you. They're a fairly massive pillar of social media so wouldn't think so short term at least but you never know.

Bateman

The rumours of News Corp taking them over were pretty strong at one stage there a couple of weeks ago and will persist as long as the price is on the floor.

Personally I’d say they’re praying for it. Dorsey doing 2 jobs was never going to work if you ask me, and pundits like the Motley Fool gave him far too easy a ride when it was announced.

Bateman

The rumours of News Corp taking them over were pretty strong at one stage there a couple of weeks ago and will persist as long as the price is on the floor.

Personally I’d say they’re praying for it. Dorsey doing 2 jobs was never going to work if you ask me, and pundits like the Motley Fool gave him far too easy a ride when it was announced.

StickyMcGinty

Anyone looking at WYNN ?

For ever odd

WYNN is confined within a desending triangle since Aug/Sept on the weekly charts.

Moodys downgraded it.
Sentiment is on the up...at the moment.

For ever odd

Bought the DAX at 9500, S&P 1900 holding for now.
Just taking on the level, also divergence on daily chart.

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Bought the DAX at 9500, S&P 1900 holding for now.
Just taking on the level, also divergence on daily chart.

Hey FEO, did you hold out? Very volatile but I'll be looking at the BoE and a dovish Carney tomorrow for an opportunity.

For ever odd

Hi dasdog,

It was a hard trade for me to put on, everything from my personal view and the head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr chart was telling me not to. My rules dictated that I had to take on the level and I got a read on the markets that something was coming (didn't know what, hence the bad timing of the trade). No heroics, traded the level and left bias on the sidelines.

Cameron got his "watered down" offer from EU, how he handles it, has to be noted.

dasdog

I saw the trade last night and thought it was a bit on the risky side.

I'll see how things play out overnight re GBP. Minutes are bound to be dovish but a change to a 9-0 vote could provide a short term downward spike and Carney will talk it down. Negative central bank outlooks appear to be the latest way to stimulate an economy.

For ever odd

Nice trade dasdog. Thanks for the reminder, appreciate it!!

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

WYNN is confined within a desending triangle since Aug/Sept on the weekly charts.

Moodys downgraded it.
Sentiment is on the up...at the moment.

Wynn is at the top of the descending triangle now.

For ever odd

Today was a non event in the oil meeting between Russia, Saudi and Venezuela. A production freeze at January levels (which is substantial) is hardly a problem solving solution.
It may in fact, just be a feeler, to see how other oil producing nations react to the news.
A baby step in the long road to oil price recovery.... who knows, but in a standoff, whom ever moves first is usually the loser.

daheff

For ever odd wrote: »

Today was a non event in the oil meeting between Russia, Saudi and Venezuela. A production freeze at January levels (which is substantial) is hardly a problem solving solution.
It may in fact, just be a feeler, to see how other oil producing nations react to the news.
A baby step in the long road to oil price recovery.... who knows, but in a standoff, whom ever moves first is usually the loser.

I dont get it. They all lose by keeping supply high and price lower. Surely selling less at a higher price (and in the long term all at a higher price) is in their interests. Why not cut back? If you can get similar revenues for less output then it makes sense to me to cut back production. Me thinks theres a lot more to this than meets the eye (eg trying to bankrupt fracking companies)