TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd · 17-02-2016 9:25pm

The thing is, everyone would have to agree to production cuts. There is nothing to stop Iran, Iraq and dare I say USA upping production, if the above named countries did cut production.

As regards fracking, I read last year, that it would take frackers about 4 weeks to be up and running, once the economical price threshold was exceeded. Sorry Can't remember the source.

A standoff that has as much do with testosterone, as it does oil.

Edit.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html

$55-60 economical for frackers. Article from last year, but interesting.

zpehtsfd · 19-02-2016 2:38pm

Commodities' $3.6 Trillion Black Hole
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-19/commodity-companies-have-built-a-3-6-trillion-debt-mountain

Great read.

For ever odd · 19-02-2016 6:27pm

Looks like swing highs have formed across all major indexs on the daily charts. Unless there is a remarkable move (to the upside) in US markets this afternoon , I will be looking to short (fairly hard) indexs next week.

For ever odd · 21-02-2016 4:27pm

Anyone got a handle on CoCo's? My basic understanding is,that if banks can't issue these bonds or pay the existing coupon , they may have to do share placing to meet regulations.

Is this the main reason why financial's are struggling at the moment?

For ever odd · 21-02-2016 6:09pm

Boris Johnson giving the thumbs up for brexit, Cameron bound to be pissed off. The people to follow Boris in my opinion, markets will give more weight to a brexit.

For ever odd · 22-02-2016 1:57pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Looks like swing highs have formed across all major indexs on the daily charts. Unless there is a remarkable move (to the upside) in US markets this afternoon , I will be looking to short (fairly hard) indexs next week.

Short DAX @9565 tight stop 9585. Feeler trade, as I am a bit baffled as to what is going on today.

EDIT stop got hit earlier, by 4 points. Have this zone marked off for again.

ixus · 22-02-2016 6:29pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Short DAX @9565 tight stop 9585. Feeler trade, as I am a bit baffled as to what is going on today.

Big euro weakness. 32month lows of euro/yen. Euro carry trade (risk on) afoot. PMI's were sufficiently below estimates to upgrade probability of further ECB action in March. It's not too far off now, March 10th. Today fwlt like positioning in advance.

For ever odd · 22-02-2016 6:59pm

The moves in Asia overnight... is the a new regulator in china that big a deal, also metals from china?? it seems anything remotely positive coming from china and the markets jump.

Got the front-running bit from euro session... but US equities up after that CPIi report, maybe a run at 1950 for technical reasons.

For ever odd · 22-02-2016 11:38pm

BHP billiton had a disaster of a HY report. The biggest mining company in the world struggling!
With the action in the mining sector today, one could be forgiven for thinking that a small bit of manipulation was at play.

Mining sector down tomorrow?

_Tombstone_ · 23-02-2016 1:05am

A small bit??

For ever odd · 23-02-2016 11:46am

_Tombstone_ wrote: »

A small bit??

For ever odd · 23-02-2016 11:49am

Anyone else seeing a possible head and shoulders on the 4 hr charts..... Stoxx 50, DAX, S&P, and Dow?

EDIT:
If it is, I have DAX @ 9462 entry,which is or around daily lows.... 250 -300 points target. Stop at 9589 yesterday's high.
Might work, might not...will give it a go anyhow.

For ever odd · 23-02-2016 10:53pm

API oil storage up to 7.1m, last week's storage -3.3m.
10m swing in a week, oil just cannot catch a break, if EIA report is high tomorrow.......

dasdog · 24-02-2016 12:47am

For ever odd wrote: »

API oil storage up to 7.1m, last week's storage -3.3m.
10m swing in a week, oil just cannot catch a break, if EIA report is high tomorrow.......

Comments from the Saudi oil minister before hand didn't help either. Dollar is precariously close to the 111 Yen support line. If that and the physiological 110 breaks a reversion to 106.5 is actually possible. If Draghi doesn't deliver things could get ugly.

For ever odd · 24-02-2016 2:37am

Kuroda is hinting at further rate cuts. Keep an eye on gold for clues, in particular 1232, a great level. Both should move in tandam, maybe hedge one off the other if in doubt. Yen 112.48 is my sticky point for the time being.

Had a look at oil on the weekly charts and there is serious divergence, not to state the obvious, but Something has gotta give..... Don't know whats going to happen but it will be a fast and a big move when it does. I'm Gonna play conservatively for the next while.

For ever odd · 24-02-2016 11:28am

For ever odd wrote: »

Looks like swing highs have formed across all major indexs on the daily charts. Unless there is a remarkable move (to the upside) in US markets this afternoon , I will be looking to short (fairly hard) indexs next week.

Wéeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

That's me cooked! No matter how long I do this, I cannot fully suppress the emotional highs that winning brings.
Profits locked In, taking a break and going to enjoy the spoils of my hard work.

Apologies for all the posts.

Auld Slapper · 25-02-2016 1:40pm

Hi all,

I have been trying to find future prices of stocks but am having no luck. where should I go to find say the future price of Ryanair in 12 months?

Many thanks

For ever odd · 25-02-2016 1:42pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Kuroda is hinting at further rate cuts. Keep an eye on gold for clues, in particular 1232, a great level. Both should move in tandam, maybe hedge one off the other if in doubt. Yen 112.48 is my sticky point for the time being.

Markets are in balance now.

Ronaldinho · 26-02-2016 11:27am

Auld Slapper wrote: »

Hi all,

I have been trying to find future prices of stocks but am having no luck. where should I go to find say the future price of Ryanair in 12 months?

Many thanks

AFAIK there is no observable, liquid market for forwards on single stocks but you can calculate the theoretical forward price easily enough I think.

I'm sure it's in Hull. It would be determined by the spot Ryanair price, the cost of borrowing the stock for x number of months and I guess the 'risk-free rate'. Should all be in Hull though

For ever odd · 29-02-2016 3:59pm

Expecting gold to breakout , $75+ move if it does.
0-3 days or idea is void.

For ever odd · 02-03-2016 2:51pm

Text book elliot wave forming on the DAX 15 mins. Five waves. Impulse wave number 1 maybe?

Edit: sorry that should read corrective wave A maybe?

dasdog · 17-03-2016 10:34am

Do the Fed know something we don't know about the wider global economy or are they just making it as they go along? Bank of Australia must be tearing their hair out (if they had any left) at AUD strength knowing hard commodities could tank, gold aside.

If Dollar/Yen support breaks, EUR/USD to hit 114.5 or even spike to 117 before a sharp reversal to 108?

Lá Fhéile Pádraig / Happy St Patrick's Day.

ixus · 17-03-2016 11:10am

The dovishness has vaught a lot by surprise. I fully expected a signal for the coming meetings. They have bottled it and made excuses for higher inflation. Their credibility is under scrutiny to such an extent that even FED fanboy Steve Liesman asked that question and expressed his surprise on Cnbc.

Read this blog on inflation measures to show how much they put their head in sand on inflation:

http://macro-man.blogspot.ie/2016/03/march-madness.html?m=1

For ever odd · 17-03-2016 12:53pm

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20060918004541AAQEqQe

In my opinion too much lateral thinking has taken over the markets.
"Sit down and think about things logically" is what I think is been said at meetings today.

Logic outperforms lateral in the long term.

dasdog · 17-03-2016 12:59pm

Closed doors in banking institutions made their move. This going to set up some great positions when the dust settles if rationality returns. Standing aside is the best trade.

FEO, sound quality is terrible but this was recommended as a must listen.

For ever odd · 18-03-2016 7:21pm

Thanks for the link dasdog, very interesting and the first time believe it or not that I heard Charlie speak. The man is brilliant, but upon listening to that clip I realised why he is number 2 and Warren is number 1. Quiet simply, as much as he trys to portray humility he thinks of himself superior (well founded) and therefore lacks respect. Warren on the other hand portrays superior but thinks himself humble, and affords Charlie respect at any given chance (Charlie and I think...). What a partnership, with both having the strength to each others weaknesses.

RobertKK · 19-03-2016 2:18pm

Bought some Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) during the week, when it was announced that the FDA will decide on their Duchenne Muscle Dystrophy drug next month. A genetic condition with currently no treatment.
Bought in two tranches at $16.70 and $15.15.
It then fell to a low of $14.26 on Wednesday before it was announced that insiders had bought $2.5 million worth of stock directly on the stock market, which was great news for shareholders.
Currently at $18. It's 50 day movement average is in the $13s and the 200 day moving average is in the $27s.
Planning on selling half before the decision and the rest for the risky outcome. The only thing going against it seems to be the small sample of clinical cases in the trial, but parents who have had the drugs used on their children are pleading for it to be approved.
US Congress in the past couple of years had asked for the drug to be approved given there is currently no treatment and life expectancy at most is mid 20s.
That is my biggest trade of the year so far. Expect it to get well into the 20s at least before the FDA decide if it goes way higher or way way lower.
With the FDA, who knows.

crooked_feet · 19-03-2016 2:23pm

bought freeport mc moran for $3.90 in january , sold yesterday @ $11.13 , think its due a pullback despite the bear rally in energy

RobertKK · 19-03-2016 5:35pm

crooked_feet wrote: »

bought freeport mc moran for $3.90 in january , sold yesterday @ $11.13 , think its due a pullback despite the bear rally in energy

I know someone else did the same trade and also sold yesterday.

Well done.

For ever odd · 21-03-2016 2:43pm

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought some Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) during the week, when it was announced that the FDA will decide on their Duchenne Muscle Dystrophy drug next month. A genetic condition with currently no treatment.
Bought in two tranches at $16.70 and $15.15.
It then fell to a low of $14.26 on Wednesday before it was announced that insiders had bought $2.5 million worth of stock directly on the stock market, which was great news for shareholders.
Currently at $18. It's 50 day movement average is in the $13s and the 200 day moving average is in the $27s.
Planning on selling half before the decision and the rest for the risky outcome. The only thing going against it seems to be the small sample of clinical cases in the trial, but parents who have had the drugs used on their children are pleading for it to be approved.
US Congress in the past couple of years had asked for the drug to be approved given there is currently no treatment and life expectancy at most is mid 20s.
That is my biggest trade of the year so far. Expect it to get well into the 20s at least before the FDA decide if it goes way higher or way way lower.
With the FDA, who knows.

100 ema is 21.75 on daily, and would be roughly half of the gap down on jan 15(?). Short term target would be around that area for me.

EDIT; target hit, 20% rise today. Nice one Robert!