TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Do the Fed know something we don't know about the wider global economy or are they just making it as they go along? Bank of Australia must be tearing their hair out (if they had any left) at AUD strength knowing hard commodities could tank, gold aside.

If Dollar/Yen support breaks, EUR/USD to hit 114.5 or even spike to 117 before a sharp reversal to 108?

Lá Fhéile Pádraig / Happy St Patrick's Day.

Hi dasdog,
That turned out pretty accurate. What's the word on the grapevine?

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Hi dasdog,
That turned out pretty accurate. What's the word on the grapevine?

Yep, the warning signals were being re-iterated from more and more sources.

USD/JPY target still being eyed and even 105 or below now which is putting me off my plan of going long at 106.5. There is little resistance on the way down from here (108.2) and there are doubts over what intervention the BoJ can actually do. I wouldn't risk getting caught in a bear trap where it sits right now though.

EUR/USD took a slap down from 114.5 when it hit but has good support at 113.2, resistance at today's high and 115.4. More chance of staying in a range as EUR/JPY is also taking a bruising but 117/8 spike still possible short term.

For ever odd

From June last year,

For ever odd wrote: »

I don't trade silver but I had a look at the charts, and there is a nice formation on the weekly charts that suggests a breakout in the next 1-3 weeks, if not the formation is null.
For me it would be a drop to 1200's or a rise to 2200,s over the coming months depending on which way it breaks.

Silver.

While the breakout was correct, it has failed to hit either of the levels mentioned.
From June last year Silver (spot price) has tried and failed to make a weekly close above 1610 on a few occasions. It is knocking at 1610 and a possible inverse h&s is on the cards.

If it does break through this level there is big resistance at 1699, and 1845 would tie in nicely with the Ih&s and last point of contact on the above mentioned pattern.
If it fails again....
Technical idea, anyone got a handle on the fundamentals.

For ever odd

No Deal in Doha.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-freeze-talks-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

No Deal in Doha.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-freeze-talks-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran

I don't know how many of you read the article in the link, but if you read it again, It's like a different version of events. Why? Why could the writer not accept that he made an pig's ear of his analysis and move on?
The link below goes a little way to explaining the phenomenon, that effects everyone from imbecile to academic.

http://kevinmarcoux.com/narrative-fallacy-stop-making-sense/?fdx_switcher=true

RobertKK

For ever odd wrote: »

SRPT got a brokers revised recommendion of $ 60 yesterday, and got a little pump on cnbc, price and volume took off as soon as.

If the raised price target is anything like teslas' upgrade to $280, then today should be interesting.

Well I sold most of SRPT early last week at $21.62 after a buy with an average of $15.97, as I wanted it gone before briefing documents by the FDA were released and definitely all I wanted sold before today. It was a good trade, but one word - wow.
It fell to the $10 area when briefing documents were released and the following day more info by the FDA was released and the stock then rose over 30%.
Currently halted as today is the big day, I just hold a small amount of shares - approx €1500 worth as I took some profit with the capital off the table. Shares were up 8% today pre-market before being halted. Later today we will know the outcome of the FDA decision, it will move either violently up or down and more importantly a good or bad day for DMD sufferers, it is being called the biggest FDA decision in two years. Politicians like Marco Rubio are attending the FDA hearing in support of approval and over 1,000 people are attending the hearing.

Today we will know if that price target is pie in the sky or real. Validation today for SRPT also validates the other drugs it has in development for other variants of the same genetic disease.

RobertKK

RobertKK wrote: »

Well I sold most of SRPT early last week at $21.62 after a buy with an average of $15.97, as I wanted it gone before briefing documents by the FDA were released and definitely all I wanted sold before today. It was a good trade, but one word - wow.
It fell to the $10 area when briefing documents were released and the following day more info by the FDA was released and the stock then rose over 30%.
Currently halted as today is the big day, I just hold a small amount of shares - approx €1500 worth as I took some profit with the capital off the table. Shares were up 8% today pre-market before being halted. Later today we will know the outcome of the FDA decision, it will move either violently up or down and more importantly a good or bad day for DMD sufferers, it is being called the biggest FDA decision in two years. Politicians like Marco Rubio are attending the FDA hearing in support of approval and over 1,000 people are attending the hearing.

Today we will know if that price target is pie in the sky or real. Validation today for SRPT also validates the other drugs it has in development for other variants of the same genetic disease.

Thought it would have been down more today but after initial 44% fall it rallied to half losses.
Chances are low the drug is approved for DMD sufferers after a recommendation yesterday to not approve it, but it still could be next month.
It was a nice play.

jpboard1

Getting long commodities against yen today. Fingers crossed.

dasdog

jpboard1 wrote: »

Getting long commodities against yen today. Fingers crossed.

Prices look cheap, you might have chosen the wrong day. Stay away from it until the BoJ are forced. US entering recession is something I don't think any of us want.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

Hugo Boss AG €54.69, dust has settled after notification of 2016 profits being lower than expected in February and subsequently the CEO stepping down a week later.

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016, 6.6% ish.

Decent stock imo for the short term (1 to 3 years)

A month on the price is much the same after hitting over €60 for a bit, just a mention for any dividend surfers lurking

6% dividend not to be sneezed at, especially if you planned on hoping the presumed one in 13 months time would be similar

For ever odd

Not sure if Venezuela and Iraq are fully priced in to the market... Safe havens next week?

ixus

They're not. Oil move partially Ven and gasoline demand. Ven and Iraq could put anither big leg up in oil if Ven defaults or Iraq enters civil war.

For ever odd

Passing on NFP today, as my favourite indicator is coming around again....Toyota may 11 report

http://www.google.com/finance?cid=655880

For ever odd

Americans on a credit card splurge , frightening amounts!
Some of the comments at the bottom of page are equally as frightening.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-06/americans-unleash-epic-debt-fuelled-spending-spree-credit-card-debt-jumps-most-recor

paying IRS with credit card

And

I just put 10k worth of gold on several cards.

Gunna tell the creditors to go F**k themselves.



WINNING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111

1st dalkey dalkey

Pardon my intrusion, but is there an investors corner, as opposed to a traders corner.
I dont have the time required for trading.
Am more into identifying investment opportunities for the longer term.

ixus

You're welcome to start one up.

For ever odd

http://m.economictimes.com/news/international/business/china-april-investment-growth-cools-to-10-5-per-cent-year-on-year-missing-forecasts/articleshow/52266371.cms

Growth in factory output cooled to 6 per cent in April, the National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS ) said on Saturday, disappointing analysts who expected it to rise to 6.5 per cent on an annual basis after an increase of 6.8 per cent the prior month.

Retail sales growth in April, which captures both private and government purchasing, quickened to 10.1 per cent. Analysts forecast sales would rise 10.5 per cent on an annual basis after gaining 10.5 per cent the prior month.

China's economic growth has cooled to 25-year lows, weighed down by a combination of weak demand at home and abroad, factory overcapacity and increasing amounts of debt

"There will be no hard landing in China", where have we heard that one before?
What will this Data, do to an already nervous market?
Smart money was getting out midweek. panic stations next week, methinks.

For ever odd

A handy equity table for reference, available on a Friday at https://www.thestreet.com/story/13570478/1/sell-in-may-and-go-away-check-these-charts-first.htmlfor for those of you interested.

For ever odd

http://mashable.com/2016/05/12/la-nina-watch-issued/#0hoyL0M5I5qY

Not every El Niño event is followed by a swing to La Niña conditions. However, some strong El Niño's have been succeeded by major La Niña events, as occurred after the 1997-98 El Niño.

The 2015-16 El Niño was on par with, if not more intense than, the 1997-98 event, suggesting that the upcoming La Niña may be significant. However, the CPC states that "there is clear uncertainty over the timing and intensity of a potential La Niña."

75% chance of Lá Nina this year. Usually brings hot summers, cold winters. Checkout 98-99 winter for reference. Queensland flood was also a La Niña year.
Worth looking into and be ready to position accordingly, when the time comes.

dasdog

Boris Johnson's comments over the weekend have backfired. I had a hunch when I saw how his campaign was being conducted, he appeared to be a liability. 55% in the stay camp according to the IPSOS poll just released, 37% leave. Sterling (especially cable) reversing this mornings losses.

ixus

Agree. Felt it was a step too far but then I don't know the people on the ground well enough. Seems you are only allowed make Hitler refernces if people are being killed. (Politicians on Putin and Ukraine)

For ever odd

FED minutes 7:00

Is it ready Feddy go or steady Feddy no?

The buying action on monday and today on the S&P suggests the latter, IMO.

Hawkish, and the dollar rally should continue.

Dovish and might see a short term rally in US equities before summer doldrums.

Usual volatility, to be expected.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=99566339&postcount=701

€3.62 dividend Payable Date & Record Date 20May2016 (tomorrow), share price closed at €58.08 today.

I'll be interested to see what happens over the next few days.

New CEO is now in place, internal promotion.

For ever odd

Augeo - Today is options expiry date, so the market will be distorted.

http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar


We could have stumbled onto a strategy. Dividend on last day of options expiry ( or week). I will have a look into it when I get time, to see if there is anything in it. Feel free to post any thoughts on the matter.

For ever odd

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci94oQrUoAAolFL.jpg

A picture speaks a thousand words.

For ever odd

http://magicvalley.com/business/agriculture/usda-manages-domestic-sugar-production-in-unstable-world-market/article_1373c632-7ece-53e8-bacd-cf0d91d5a01d.html

Brazil is, by far, the largest sugar exporter on the globe, producing nearly half of all sugar exports. Brazil, along with Australia, Thailand, Mexico and India, created a world glut and since 2011 dropped the world sugar price from 32 cents per pound to 11 cents, according to the American Sugar Alliance.

NY sugar No 11 is currently trading around $0.17 cent
http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/sb.html

3 of the last 4 weekly closes have been above the 200 ema. It had not had a weekly close above since it crossed under in August 2012.

It is at record bullish bets of 224,384 contracts.

Maybe a bit late to the party, but with supply/ demand issue's, and sugars tendency to trend, it could have more to go.

Coca-Cola closed Venezuela plant due to sugar shortage.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

http://magicvalley.com/business/agriculture/usda-manages-domestic-sugar-production-in-unstable-world-market/article_1373c632-7ece-53e8-bacd-cf0d91d5a01d.html



NY sugar No 11 is currently trading around $0.17 cent
http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/sb.html

3 of the last 4 weekly closes have been above the 200 ema. It had not had a weekly close above since it crossed under in August 2012.

It is at record bullish bets of 224,384 contracts.

Maybe a bit late to the party, but with supply/ demand issue's, and sugars tendency to trend, it could have more to go.

Coca-Cola closed Venezuela plant due to sugar shortage.

Well and truly late to the party. I got my sugar-coated behind, handed to me on a plate.

ixus

Autos have been plagued by recalls and emission scandals (not just VW). Sales in China were hurt earlier in the year. If you're thinking of a long term investment, best to ask yourself where the automobile is going and who is positioning themselves to adapt to this best.

ixus

That's grand, I never gave any predictions to the future of the auto industry.

For ever odd

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKCN0YR098

Looks like USD/CNH relations are been smoothed over. If this is the case, The Fed has got the nod.