TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/10/08/20161009_goldenweek1.jpg


Chinese markets were closed last week, will gold return once they open again?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/theres-one-very-simple-reason-why-precious-metals-were-pummelled-week

beaner92

does anyone trade emini ? s&p futures?

For ever odd

beaner92 wrote: »

does anyone trade emini ? s&p futures?

Very seldom, tend to stick with FTSE, Dow, DAX and eurostoxx 50. How bout you?

beaner92

For ever odd wrote: »

Very seldom, tend to stick with FTSE, Dow, DAX and eurostoxx 50. How bout you?

I used to trade spot fx and futures but i recently moved to futures permanently. and only trade the emini futures contracts from cme.

You spreadbet those products?

For ever odd

beaner92 wrote: »

I used to trade spot fx and futures but i recently moved to futures permanently. and only trade the emini futures contracts from cme.

You spreadbet those products?

Yes.

Good for you, I assume you are doing this on your own steam?

Thanks for the trading view site, but I like it here, some good lads posting that I find are well researched.

Feel free to add any ideas.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Kuroda is hinting at further rate cuts. Keep an eye on gold for clues, in particular 1232, a great level. Both should move in tandam, maybe hedge one off the other if in doubt. Yen 112.48 is my sticky point for the time being.

Had a look at oil on the weekly charts and there is serious divergence, not to state the obvious, but Something has gotta give..... Don't know whats going to happen but it will be a fast and a big move when it does. I'm Gonna play conservatively for the next while.

From Feb #646

Earlier in the year I had Gold and USD/JPY in balance at 1232 and 112.48 respectively.

Currently at Gold 1257. USD /JPY 103.95

Thoughts?

dasdog

€3.6bn option expiry today at 10:00am ET for EUR/USD 1.10 which looks on target.
$1.1bn for USD/JPY, 102.90-103.00 but the dollar is broadly strong.

Rise in the US 10 year getting mentioned as an indicator of a hike coming soon.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

From Feb #646

Earlier in the year I had Gold and USD/JPY in balance at 1232 and 112.48 respectively.

Currently at Gold 1257. USD /JPY 103.95

Thoughts?

Just read that again and it might have come across the wrong way.

Is it worth taking on a pairs/spread trade at these levels is what I meant.
Views on what people are thinking on outright gold or USD /JPY also welcome.

For ever odd

Equities seem to be finding their equilibrium at the moment according to my levels...

FTSE 6960
DAX. 10520 (10500)
EStoxx50 3010 (3000)
Dow 18114

All strong levels that have been mentioned in the last year or two.

My bias has been well flagged.

I wish you all an early Merry Christmas, and see you all sometime in the new year.

For ever odd

cumulare

I got burned a bit on gold at the start of the month. For the moment, I'm staying away from it, simply because option volatility is in that range that I don't like to trade it.

Soarer

Can I ask a quick question?

One of the investment options available to me in my company pension scheme is a Bond fund.
In the last year or 2 it's been massively outperforming my usual fund. I'm thinking about switching over as I can do so for free.

So can someone tell me, will bond returns remain high as long as interest rates are low?

Or is it only while interest rates are falling that bond returns are good. And once interest rates stabalize, even at 0% or whatever, the bond returns will start to fall?

ixus

Bonds have performed due to asset price appreciation. You would likely be buying the top of the bond market as yields are at so compressed due to central bank intervention. While we may not see a big sell off any time soon, upside is limited.

To switch now would be a classic case of chasing performance. If you had done so when Ecb announced QE, you would have done well. If you don't understand all this, stay away and don't go messing around with portfolio.

dasdog

UK Government loses Brexit lawsuit over article 50. Big move in sterling after the decision with the BoE coming up at midday (no move expected). EUR/GBP fighting to hold on to £0.892 support right now.

odonovanchris

Keep an eye on Canadian Medical Marijuana stocks this coming week. Many states in the US will be voting to legalise on the 8th and this will mean big business for the industry as a whole. Companies such as Canopy Growth Corp, THC Biomed Intl ltd, Affinor Growers, Supreme Pharmecuticals will all go up. These are penny stocks btw.

drunkmonkey

Can anyone with a DeGiro account advise me, I want to buy shares in Nokia and Nintendo but when I do a search I get loads of options I can choose, like buying in Hong Kong or Frankfurt, warrants calls and puts, the same with Nokia can buy in New York exchanges or Helsinki or other places.
Not sure what I should be buying, also some of them say leveraged products, i woudn't have an issue with a leveraged product as pretty confident in both for the next 4/5mts probably longer for Nokia, I really only understand spreadbettig and DeGiro don't offer that so we are you buying leveraged products or is it a type of Spreadbetting.

Fiery mutant

odonovanchris wrote: »

Keep an eye on Canadian Medical Marijuana stocks this coming week. Many states in the US will be voting to legalise on the 8th and this will mean big business for the industry as a whole. Companies such as Canopy Growth Corp, THC Biomed Intl ltd, Affinor Growers, Supreme Pharmecuticals will all go up. These are penny stocks btw.

Timothy Sykes will be watching these.

For ever odd

http://www.socionomics.net/2016/11/a-stunning-reversal-in-the-500-year-trend-toward-globalization/

“…despite the noisy debates, which have reached new heights during this presidential campaign, it is a little-noticed fact that trade is no longer rising.

“The volume of global trade was flat in the first quarter of 2016, then fell by 0.8 percent in the second quarter…


“The U.S. is no exception… The total value of American imports and exports fell by more than $200b last year. Through the first nine months of 2016, trade fell by an additional $470b.

“…there are…signs that the slowdown is becoming structural. Developed nations appear to be backing away from globalization.”

Note - for further research.

RealistSpy

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Can anyone with a DeGiro account advise me, I want to buy shares in Nokia and Nintendo but when I do a search I get loads of options I can choose, like buying in Hong Kong or Frankfurt, warrants calls and puts, the same with Nokia can buy in New York exchanges or Helsinki or other places.
Not sure what I should be buying, also some of them say leveraged products, i woudn't have an issue with a leveraged product as pretty confident in both for the next 4/5mts probably longer for Nokia, I really only understand spreadbettig and DeGiro don't offer that so we are you buying leveraged products or is it a type of Spreadbetting.

The Nintendo shares you want is under: NINTENDO CO. ADR 1/8 (US6544453037).

RealistSpy

This is a general question since I am relatively new to investing.

Question 1
I use Degiro and I am trying to reduce the entry and exist fee cost.
Which of the following strategy is better to mitigate loss:

1 - Sell when shares is dropping after reaching resistance and buy back when it reaches the support.
2 - Hold when it reaches resistance then buy more shares when it reaches support.
3 - Hold when it reaches resistance then buy when it breaks the resistance.
4 - None

Question 2
This question is for people who have invited others using Degiro's invite promotion. How long does it take to receive the E20?

Regards

ixus

Stocks for the long run?

http://macro-man.blogspot.ie/2016/11/stocks-for-long-run.html?m=1

dasdog

Thoughts on ECB today...six month QE extension with a wait an see approach? I don't see what they have to gain by locking themselves in to announcing tapering with so much political uncertainty coming in 2017.

Edit: No extension of 80b per month past March and drop to 60b until December 2017. Initial Euro spiked has retraced and given up some at least until the press conference.

For ever odd

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-27/things-make-you-go-hmm-death-petrodollar-and-what-comes-after

Good article on the what's been happening beneath the surface, geopolitically and why you are seeing tensions in the south China Sea, amongst other places.

I'm sure most are familiar with this campfire story, it involves, US treasuries, Gold, Fx and of course that old global punchbag - Oil; it has it all! Who needs Netflix or sky movies when one could bathe in the realms of reality

The story begins in the 1970s when Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon struck a deal with the House of Saud — a deal which gave birth to the petrodollar system.

The terms were simple The Saudis agreed to ONLY accept U.S. Dollars in return for their oil and that they would reinvest their surplus dollars into U.S. treasuries.

In return, the U.S. would provide arms and a security guarantee to the Saudis who, it has to be said, were living in a pretty rough neighbourhood. As you can see, things went swimmingly...

I have a feeling 2017 is going to make 2016 look like the calm before the storm... Here's to volatility.

For ever odd

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057368640&page=8

10333 and 10198/71 are the support levels I will be watching if it goes sub 10522. All resistance levels from 2002.
11125 next resistance level outside of current trading range again from 2002. See how it plays out.

EUR/USD came within a few points (8) of the first level mentioned above and rallied hard afterwards. With a lot of pundits tipping parity (again), I'm Gonna keep playing these levels(zones) until they fail.

For ever odd

Just for a bit of fun, I decided to compere the opening prices of this week and 2002 on the top four constituents of the dollar index...

Dollar index :
2017~ 10284
2002~ 11675

2017:

Eur/usd ~10517
Usd/jpy~ 11695
Gbp/usd~ 12345
Usd/cad~ 13439

2002:

Eur/usd ~ 8949
Usd/jpy~ 13090
Gbp/usd~ 14473
Usd/cad~ 16044

Hmmmm.

gb153

Any thoughts on how this vote in favour of Brexit will impact sterling tomorrow?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38833883

Was looking at some trades on the daily charts for GBP against EUR and JPY but might step aside as the vote occured outside trading hours.

Boatlake

For ever odd wrote: »

I have a feeling 2017 is going to make 2016 look like the calm before the storm... Here's to volatility.

My penny's worth.

The most likely place for volatility now is the stock market. Indices at all time highs and the system flush with cash. Should go nervously higher over time with increased occurrences of short sharp downward spikes.

Not a lot of upside in bond and money markets. No yield left to chase.

Forex could get jittery at any time. Often does. But Brexit and Trump came and went relatively quietly so I can't readily see what's going to spook it now.

Demand for property is precariously high and prices probably not sustainable.

Got a tip today to buy cotton. But I don't know much about it.

I'm holding a long GBP and EUR vs USD position in the hope that Trump screws up royally at some point.
But he seems bulletproof and the markets like his take on deregulation.
Wish Janet Yellen would shut up talking up the dollar.

For ever odd

Trump Is under the cosh today, if he delivers his usual "it's Gonna be beautiful" rhetoric without any substance - this will send the markets in a tizzy (IMO) .

My guess is he touches on a on a few of his pre-election promises but leaves everyone dangling on the bigger issues.

Anyone got a view on this?

Boatlake

I agree. Only a matter of time before the dollar goes lower.
Trump may be the catalyst.
Holding long EUR/USD myself.
Technical analysis looks positive. Medium term. next few weeks.

For ever odd

I think the market has already priced this in. It's a case of does he under deliver or over deliver, which would be dollar negative or dollar positive respectively.

That's the way I'm going to play this anyhow.

For ever odd

Well that's Trump out of the way for a another while. He did largely as expected and didn't Screw it up.
I rate it as a slight over deliver.