TRADER'S CORNER

brady23

For ever odd wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

Well I would be interested from a global standpoint, are there some areas of value to invest in when house prices drop and in turn the stock market suffers.

I am curious about New Zealand where I'm currently living. Their primary exports are dairy, meat, wool. I'm wondering would some investments in futures be worth while.

People I live with are in the housing department at the council/planning level and I have quite a few friends in construction.
The current house prices are not sustainable imo.

Similar population and average income to Dublin but people driving around in Ferraris and Lamborghinis which I assume is as a result of favourable finance and lots of positive equity.

Lots of Asian investors driving up house prices plus Fletcher Buildings which is the 3rd biggest company on NZX lost over 10% off its stock price a week or so ago.

NZ was relatively unaffected by the financial crisis but given potential issues with the transatlantic trade agreement too I would be curious if they're headed for a mini bubble especially in Auckland where average house price is 1m NZD so 670k euros.

Just some thoughts of people with more experience would be interesting

brady23, Et Al.

Ask and you shall receive...

https://macro-man.blogspot.ie/2017/04/audnzd-how-much-can-it-run.html?m=1#comment-form

Thanks.

Happy to see I'm not completely deluded.

I'll keep an eye on that blog, looking at investing in a Healthcare company in NZ, that's the sector I'm currently in and my old boss runs the data analytics department.

Orion health, their share price just hit a low after its recent report but there is zero concern amongst staff, not much to go on but I plan on looking a bit closer.

For ever odd

Euro is set to gap up against most crosses. 200 points or so against USD and 100 or so against sterling. Equities going to gap up also.

dasdog

A collective sigh of relief. From Saxo last Monday:

Roonbox

Huge Relief Rally in Indices today, holding their highs. This could be a momentum play until Month end.

Also - Vix Gapped down 20% earlier, I'm thinking of getting some protection before 1st May

For ever odd

Twitter

Looking like a nice long term double bottom has formed.
News with Bloomberg bound to attract buyers.

Roonbox

For ever odd wrote: »

Twitter

Looking like a nice long term double bottom has formed.
News with Bloomberg bound to attract buyers.

Have been watching this breakout.. Jack D bought up a ton of shares last week also.

For ever odd

Roonbox wrote: »

Have been watching this breakout.. Jack D bought up a ton of shares last week also.

You would have to think that any of the. F. A. N. G. holders will be thinking about top slicing profits and putting some into Twitter as a 'bargain' play.

Fundamentally last year's live American football streaming was a weak play as other online companies could do the same. Streaming live news through Joe soap and Bloomberg might not be so easy to do.

Still don't know how they will get better revenue, but at the very least you would expect the major media outlets are sitting down discussing a takeover bid

Thargor

I feel like a complete and utter muppet for not piling into GOOG and AMZN years ago, I knew it would come to this and still didnt do it.

For ever odd

Thargor wrote: »

I feel like a complete and utter muppet for not piling into GOOG and AMZN years ago, I knew it would come to this and still didnt do it.

No future in the past.

Soak it up. Learn from it. Keep going. No regrets.

It's a head melt otherwise.


I'm struggling on what would be the obvious pick, looking back, 15-20 years from now.

Thargor

Yeah but theres some things that are just once in a lifetime though, the internets default marketplace and the internets default search engine, there really was no way for them to fail, 10k would have been all you needed to put in back then, now its impossible to teall if they'll carry on for another 25/50/75% or if things are in bubble territory. I know you're suposed to move on but it is genuinely headwrecking.

For ever odd

Sometimes, incidentally, it’s much easier in these transforming events to figure out the losers. You could have grasped the importance of the auto when it came along but still found it hard to pick companies that would make you money. But there was one obvious decision you could have made back then–it’s better sometimes to turn these things upside down–and that was to short horses. Frankly, I’m disappointed that the Buffett family was not short horses through this entire period. And we really had no excuse: Living in Nebraska, we would have found it super-easy to borrow horses and avoid a “short squeeze.”

U.S. Horse Population

1900: 21 million
1998: 5 million

Depends how one looks at things. That is Warren Buffetts' view on the invention of the car.

Sabre Man

Thargor wrote: »

I feel like a complete and utter muppet for not piling into GOOG and AMZN years ago, I knew it would come to this and still didnt do it.

I still don't think it's too late if you intend to hold on to them for years. I only bought GOOG and AMZN last year and am very pleased so far. I think they will keep on growing.

I was watching Nvidia when it was less than half today's price and kept watching while it shot up. Finally bought a small position at 100.50 in February.

Roonbox

Thargor wrote: »

Yeah but theres some things that are just once in a lifetime though, the internets default marketplace and the internets default search engine, there really was no way for them to fail, 10k would have been all you needed to put in back then, now its impossible to teall if they'll carry on for another 25/50/75% or if things are in bubble territory. I know you're suposed to move on but it is genuinely headwrecking.

There's always another amazing investment around the corner.. I wouldn't dwell on those two names. And I think they are towards the latter stages of a rally at this stage.
You may have a chance to buy either of them if we enter a period of economic turmoil.

drunkmonkey

How's everyone think Nvidia and Disney are looking right now, could we see a little rally if things are good this week, Disney is looking a little shakey but looks like a good year ahead. Nvidia should have good results Thursday I'd assume. Just wondering is it worth putting in a little more to them now.

wordofwarning

Thargor wrote: »

I feel like a complete and utter muppet for not piling into GOOG and AMZN years ago, I knew it would come to this and still didnt do it.

If the best stock picker in the World admits he missed out on investing in them realising how much they cost to advertise even on a large scale ie Warren Buffet this weekend. It is totally understandable for a retail investor to not realise their potential. In fact amazon was a case study in a lot of business courses on how a vast company can still lose money(Amazon basically lost money for decades until their cloud computing got big).

I think Green REIT are value. Their share to book value indicates they are undervalued. They are the only REIT trading at a discount. Their book value is 158.2c per share, but their shares are trading at around 1.38. They have a yield of around 3-3.5%. They are superior to Hibernia REIT in the sense, they are focusing on core assets and are developing industrial units where there is a massive market

brady23

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How's everyone think Nvidia and Disney are looking right now, could we see a little rally if things are good this week, Disney is looking a little shakey but looks like a good year ahead. Nvidia should have good results Thursday I'd assume. Just wondering is it worth putting in a little more to them now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-earnings-why-the-news-wont-be-all-bad-at-espn-1494273856
I have a membership to one of ESPN's pay for products, approx 65$ for a 24 month sub, always thought their pay for subs were reasonably priced but with massive increase in TV deals in the NBA for example which has driven up NBA franchises valuations as well as player salary cap, I would have assumed ESPN would receive some of the benefits.

Sabre Man

Big beat by Nividia, shares up more than 10% in after hours trading.

drunkmonkey

Sabre Man wrote: »

Big beat by Nividia, shares up more than 10% in after hours trading.

Thought a trade in Ferrari this morning didn't go through ended going through twice and spent all the funds for Nvidia..Ferrari went well today but not 10% well..kicking myself.

cotton_picker

word f warning

while the irish REIT,s look cheap , share prices have not moved in tandem with the market to any degree at all , REIT,s are not the same as owning bricks and mortar and i say that as someone who much prefers stocks to property

i owned the spanish REIT, hispania for several months , sold out a fortnight ago , the PE was below 5 and spain is really recovering now , soros and paulson invested in this REIT three years ago in a big way

dasdog

Huge Euro/Dollar option expiry today at 3pm, 1.1050-60 (4.1bln). An hour away, we are at $1.09 after the US data.

Edit: $109.2 holding the upward move. CME FedWatch Tool has dropped a June move from 83.1% to 73.8%

wordofwarning

cotton_picker wrote: »

word f warning

while the irish REIT,s look cheap , share prices have not moved in tandem with the market to any degree at all , REIT,s are not the same as owning bricks and mortar and i say that as someone who much prefers stocks to property

They look cheap relative to a few years ago. They had a premium of literally 100% 2/3 years ago. Now the likes of Green is trading at a 10% discount to their book value. They have a fair amount of office space going on stream constantly over the few years

thisonetaken

cotton_picker wrote: »

word f warning

while the irish REIT,s look cheap , share prices have not moved in tandem with the market to any degree at all , REIT,s are not the same as owning bricks and mortar and i say that as someone who much prefers stocks to property

i owned the spanish REIT, hispania for several months , sold out a fortnight ago , the PE was below 5 and spain is really recovering now , soros and paulson invested in this REIT three years ago in a big way

Hispania looks very cheap, why did you sell?

wordofwarning

thisonetaken wrote: »

Hispania looks very cheap, why did you sell?

I agree. Unless its NAV is leprechaun economics, the company is trading at a massive discount.

It seems pretty decent to me. Although a huge amount of the REIT appears to be hotels and 65% of them are on the Canarys Island. Unlike Datala, they appear to be using brand names which eats into profits (Datala likes to drop brands, as they charge a fee when they are going to let the room anyway). Having a lot of the portfolio as hotels on a single isolated island will charge a sizeable risk premium

cork93

Any thoughts on KBC (KBC:BRU) shares? Yields over 4% and at first look fundamentals seem reasonable. I don't think it's anything amazing but value in equities is hard to find right now.

dealhunter1985

wow some move in the FTSE the last few days.. I'm really surprised there are buyers at these levels given the already large move in recent months. And still with so much unknown around Brexit.. nuts
Any idea whats driving it? GBPUSD hasnt moved much in the last week..

iguot

Disneys new pirates of the caribbean to be released by Hackers ain't gonna do them any good.

https://www.cnet.com/news/disney-ceo-bob-iger-reportedly-says-hackers-are-threatening-to-leak-an-upcoming-movie/

michaelp97

Hi looking to start investing with a fund of 10k and just seeking advice as to what would be the best stock brokerage I could use and is 10k too small to invest in a hedge fund? Or venture capital worthwhile?

drunkmonkey

michaelp97 wrote: »

Hi looking to start investing with a fund of 10k and just seeking advice as to what would be the best stock brokerage I could use and is 10k too small to invest in a hedge fund? Or venture capital worthwhile?

Have a look at Degiro https://www.degiro.ie/

As to who to give your money to, personally I just research company's i'm interested in, for example I've an interest in cars so have bought shares in Porsche, Mercedes and Ferrari also into gaming so bought Nvidia, Nintendo, Activision, GLU Mobile. There all doing ok.
On degiro you can invest in funds if that's what you know.

10k is plenty to start, maybe even wet your feet with a few shares you like with 1k.

wordofwarning

michaelp97 wrote: »

Hi looking to start investing with a fund of 10k and just seeking advice as to what would be the best stock brokerage I could use and is 10k too small to invest in a hedge fund? Or venture capital worthwhile?

Degiro is the cheapest by far and the actually the easiest to open account with. Irish stock purchases are about €2 per trade and US stocks are 50c per trade.

You are too small for a hedge fund, plus most underperform. You are too small for venture capital (well decent VC).

What is your investment horizon?

irishgeo

If I wanted to be shares in the legal cannabis market state side. Any good punts available. I have maybe a 1k to invest.