TRADER'S CORNER

amacca

greenfield21 wrote: »

Surely people holding cash have had enough misery, will they not eventually have there day?

They might, Its certainly possible but not a certainty. All I'm saying is it never hurts to be prudent when it comes to holding one asset - never put too many eggs in one basket I guess....it makes me shiver when I think of someone converting all their assets into cash....what do most people inevitably want to do once they have a pile of cash anyway (go out and buy something with it usually unless they are the OCD hoarder types whose only goal in life is to have a big balance)

Some would class me as ultra risk averse however so you should know thats where my post was coming from....I'd much rather hold an asset capable of generating cash than cash itself at any stage even if cash was earning good interest which is the wrong thing to do if interest rates are high of course but thats how I'm wired.

Somewhere in the back of my lizard brain a little lizard voice keeps telling me its just ****ing paper or ones and zeros in a database etc, its really only worth what people think its worth whereas a share in a company with prospects (ideally one with a chance of surviving a downturn etc), a business, a property, a rare piece of jewellery, a way to grow food, a vintage piece of machinery/transportation, artwork with real collector value that isn't dependant on fond memories of a generation etc.....these things may lose value but if you can support yourself and hold on through the bad times they will always be worth something and probably if you hold a mix the overall value will be back to what you paid eventually (in terms of what you could have bought with their value in the past) and probably more

Theres nothing worse than selling an asset for cash and then trying to buy another asset while watching the value of your cash decline and the asset increase. I'd always hold a percentage of cash but I'd be very nervous to hold a large percentage of assets in cash.......Thats putting a lot of unwarranted faith in the system given the times we are in imo

(to put it another way when playing hearts with something at stake I never try to shoot the moon)

Of course some gamble big and win big too......

Mach 3

Been reading and following Ryanair on a few different threads here, and from a technical view, it is starting to look very bullish on the weekly chart. An island gap reversal in the making. Gap down now filled (another one to go?), if it closes the week above....
Suppose the drop in oil prices is a help?

Mach 3

Failed to close last week above the gap. Looks like its going to fill the lower gap first.
Brexit deal?
Yes, hands up, I got it wrong on this one.

Mach 3

Brexit - A few ways to look at it.

Don’t try to answer. Instead, think of a framework for assessing the situation.

1. Make things as simple as possible
There are multiple scenarios but they can essentially be divided into a binary decision of either

Chaos: a hard Brexit or no-deal Brexit starting next March (or at least that result looking likely until near the March deadline); or...

Relief: no major change of economic status quo, either because the current Brexit deal passes, Brexit is cancelled via a second referendum, or the negotiation period is extended

2. Set a baseline
Estimate where we were at Wednesday’s close -- when an agreement was in place and the Cabinet had signed off, and before any ministers had resigned. Let’s say we were pricing 50% chaos / 50% relief then.

Next, estimate how those probabilities had shifted by Thursday’s close. It looks more fraught, but not blind panic. Say 65% chaos / 35% relief.

The Bloomberg British Pound Index fell by ~2% in that period. So, based on the input probabilities, that indicates that a 15% shift toward the chaos scenario caused a 2% reaction in sterling.

But bear in mind the gyrations may be bigger, the closer we get toward 100% likelihood of one outcome or the other.

3a. Identify the next major event risks.
PM Theresa May has given no indication that she will resign, so the next major catalyst could be a confidence vote on her leadership.

Until a confidence vote is declared, sterling should slowly grind higher as the gap between the probabilities narrows.

If a confidence vote is declared, it may shift the probabilities again -- to, say, a 75% chance of our chaos outcome -- within just a couple of hours. A 10% probability move (rather than the earlier 15% probability shift), but at a higher-beta part of the curve, may lead traders to expect something like another ~2% drop in the Pound Index.

3b. Break those risks into a decision tree
If May loses the confidence vote, we get closer to a chaos outcome (maybe 85%), which could trigger another negative reaction in the Pound Index, again larger relative to the change in probabilities as we’re still further along the curve. Sterling could be another 2.5% weaker and still falling, though with the risk of occasional rallies on any headlines that change the narrative

If May wins the confidence vote, the relief scenario gains a bit of ground (back to, say, 40%), so the pound should strengthen. And by the time of the parliamentary vote, there’s a chance the equation could be more like 55% chaos / 45% relief as May works with a tailwind to campaign for the deal. That’s 10% better than we are now, so the pound could probably be ~1.5% higher than we currently trade

4. Weigh everything up and wait for the opportunity
Having assigned a probability that there’ll be a confidence vote, and then also whether May survives such a vote, then it’s possible to probability-weight the likelihood of where sterling will trade under the various outcomes. When it looks misaligned versus expectations of how the drama plays out -- that’s the moment to pounce.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-16/one-traders-4-step-process-figuring-out-brexit-project-fear-vs-relief-rally

Mach 3

A visual of returns over the last 18 years. The world has changed a lot in the last 18 years (remember when Nokia and blackberries were the rage), maybe there is a trend in the quilt (haven't t looked too closely yet), but the first Question that sprung to mind straight away was - Are people going react the same way, Or has the swiftness of change over the last 25 years going to cause people to "mean revert" (apologies for using a mathematical scenario on humans) to traditional morals?

Anyway here is - others might see something else.



Edit:
Automated trading these days
- 72% of trading in US equity indices
- 75% of International equities indices
- 84% of G10 currencies and
- 70% US Treasuries

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/automated-trading-volatility-macquarie-bank-machine-learning-2018-11

The use of machines in financial markets is only getting more prolific, replacing humans in everyday investment decisions.

Does this mean that "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" quiet literally depends if the A.I. learning machine is in a good/bad mood(with the less sophisticated models)?

Mach 3

For ever odd wrote: »

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10W0MJ

Germany to tell people to stockpile food and water in case of attacks: FAS

X
(Reuters) - For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the German government plans to tell citizens to stockpile food and water in case of an attack or catastrophe, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper reported on Sunday.

Germany is currently on high alert after two Islamist attacks and a shooting rampage by a mentally unstable teenager last month. Berlin announced measures earlier this month to spend considerably more on its police and security forces and to create a special unit to counter cyber crime and terrorism.

"The population will be obliged to hold an individual supply of food for ten days," the newspaper quoted the government's "Concept for Civil Defence" - which has been prepared by the Interior Ministry - as saying

Strange report.

If this report is true, I'd expect people to hoard cash along with their food, leading to more robberies and more social unrest.
This stockpiling could spark the very thing it was set up for.

21/08/2016

Nobody knew the Corona virus was coming... for the conspiracy theorists.

Mach 3

Check out the performance of these puppies over the last three to four days (Use for reference only).

There is a quilt above that can be used for short historical reference also.





"Don't fight the FED" they say! What junk are the ECB buying? And what are SWF's doing?
Follow the Money.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-etfs-will-be-bought-federal-reserve

But first some background: the Fed's revised, and massively expanded, Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility - which now can purchase 'fallen angel' junk bonds - will now be funded with $25 billion of equity capital from the Treasury as opposed to $10 billion previously. The leverage on the equity will be 10x for IG-rated bonds, 7x for bonds below IG, and in a range of 3x to 7x for any other eligible asset. The scope of the facility was also expanded, and in what was the biggest news of Thursday, while it was originally targeted toward IG bonds from US issuers and US-listed IG ETFs, the facility can now also purchase:

BB-rated bonds of recent “fallen angels” so long as they were IG rated as of March 22, 2020, and
HY ETFs, although the “preponderance” of ETF holdings are expected to be IG.

JMMCapital

Mach 3 wrote: »

Check out the performance of these puppies over the last three to four days (Use for reference only).

There is a quilt above that can be used for short historical reference also.





"Don't fight the FED" they say! What junk are the ECB buying? And what are SWF's doing?
Follow the Money.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-etfs-will-be-bought-federal-reserve

This isn't going to end well.

Mach 3

A largely anticipated pullback today in the equity markets, that will have some saying "this is it = the markets are going to crash." I think we see one or two more ATH's before the the "big short" arrives.

dartboardio

Gbp absolutely tanked this week. I've been trading more or less full time the last 7 months (forex) and I'm in the process of getting funded by ftmo. Basically it's a prop trading firm where you prove your skill and go through an evaluation process and they fund you either 10k, 25k, 50k or 100k.you choose the amount and pay a small fee. If you pass the challenge you get the fee refunded and get to keep 70% of profits each month

So far this week I've made 9.3% of the 10% over all target to pass the challenge. So looks like ill be getting funded very soon. Absolutely delighted.

bobbyy gee

from your chance of losing whatever amount of money you are paying them upfront is 99 percent. 99 percent

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/my-experience-with-ftmo-funded-account-trial.347848/

bobbyy gee

dartboardio wrote: »

Gbp absolutely tanked this week. I've been trading more or less full time the last 7 months (forex) and I'm in the process of getting funded by ftmo. Basically it's a prop trading firm where you prove your skill and go through an evaluation process and they fund you either 10k, 25k, 50k or 100k.you choose the amount and pay a small fee. If you pass the challenge you get the fee refunded and get to keep 70% of profits each month

So far this week I've made 9.3% of the 10% over all target to pass the challenge. So looks like ill be getting funded very soon. Absolutely delighted.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/my-experience-with-ftmo-funded-account-trial.347848/

Mach 3

Mach 3 wrote: »

A largely anticipated pullback today in the equity markets, that will have some saying "this is it = the markets are going to crash." I think we see one or two more ATH's before the the "big short" arrives.

Anyone still buying? time to get out of Dodge me thinks.

DilD

Mach 3 wrote: »

Anyone still buying? time to get out of Dodge me thinks.

Definitely a hard penny environment right now, not one to be taking many new positions if you are an intermediate term trader.

Waiting for things to settle a bit and volatility die down and we start seeing some decent setups again.

Mach 3

Source:https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-every-asset-class-currency-and-sp-500-sector-performed-in-2020/

2021 Where is the best opportunity?

Mach 3