TRADER'S CORNER

Tugboats

Tugboats wrote: »

Was watching it but didnt see an entry. Continue to fire blanks this week had an order to short Euro this morning at 109.49 but sold off just before getting there:(

109.49 was hit to the pip today before selling off. Shame I didnt still have the order in. Due to frustration at missing this yesterday I took a poorer entry yesterday afternoon. Patience pays off

dasdog

Stop chase is on (following on Twitter)
EUR touched 109.5 and 1.11 appears to be the target.

Not joining in directly but:

-17.0 pips, AUD/USD long 0.7366/0.7349, 32k which I closed earlier (too early, would have profited)
+44.2 pips EUR/GBP long 0.7034/0.7078, 50k started to fade so booked

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

Ok, you have the floor. Can you give us a few bullet points why you think that?

Its purely a dollar play. The Fed cannot afford another dollar rally. Its killing their growth. I really don't see dollar any stronger here. Even today with pretty strong NFP it could not sink the euro.

For ever odd

[QUOTE=jpboard1;96526561]Its purely a dollar play. The Fed cannot afford another dollar rally. Its killing their growth. I really don't see dollar any stronger here. Even today with pretty strong NFP it could not sink the euro.[/QUOTE]

This argument has been presented for over a year now. So what is the fed going to do?

The euro is been used as a funding currency by US multi- nationals for corporate debt.

arrowloopboy

Still short light crude since 5995.00 and again 5500.00/5000.00/4800.00,it closed yesterday evening at 4417.00, this one trade has given me nearly 4000 points , which has turned this into one of my best years ever , and has reinforced my belief in medium term trading rather than scalping , enjoy the weekend guys 😀😀😀

For ever odd

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Still short light crude since 5995.00 and again 5500.00/5000.00/4800.00,it closed yesterday evening at 4417.00, this one trade has given me nearly 4000 points , which has turned this into one of my best years ever , and has reinforced my belief in medium term trading rather than scalping , enjoy the weekend guys 😀😀😀

Its amazing how easy it is, when you find the style that suits you!
Well done and enjoy!

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

This argument has been presented for over a year now. So what is the fed going to do?

The euro is been used as a funding currency by US multi- nationals for corporate debt.

Maybe delay the rate rise everyone is expecting. They have their ways.

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

Its amazing how easy it is, when you find the style that suits you!
Well done and enjoy!

I really wouldn't ever consider trading easy

jpboard1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Still short light crude since 5995.00 and again 5500.00/5000.00/4800.00,it closed yesterday evening at 4417.00, this one trade has given me nearly 4000 points , which has turned this into one of my best years ever , and has reinforced my belief in medium term trading rather than scalping , enjoy the weekend guys 😀😀😀

What is your eventual target? What platform are you trading it on?

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

I really wouldn't ever consider trading easy

I really don't care if I am right or wrong!

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

I really don't care if I am right or wrong!

Good for you!

arrowloopboy

For ever odd wrote: »

I really don't care if I am right or wrong!

Nor do I ,just as long as my systems expectancy is their or their abouts at the end of the year:p.

arrowloopboy

jpboard1 wrote: »

What is your eventual target? What platform are you trading it on?

To reverse this trade from 42/40/38 and lower if it gets their,and hold till $70 +
IG

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

I see the dollar index is floating around the 96.39 level that I mentioned on the "dollar" thread and the Euro is in or around the same level it was at the time also(11035 was the high that day) This time around they coming from the opposite direction. Quite day today with UK and US holiday's, so next few days should let us know if the dollar bull is back.
Thoughts?

Euro high today 11042
Dollar index never broke below 97

A)The dollar is overbought against the rest of the index.
B)The euro is overbought against the dollar.
C) Someone is buying the euro in a big way....Swiss?

dasdog

dasdog wrote: »

Yes, I expected that and decided not to grab a quick profit, 113 at market close. Negative US data and any trouble in China will boost this.

The Canadian Parliament was dissolved this morning. Prospects don't look good for CAD. Going to hold on to this if it survives the week as it has a lot of potential but I'll update the thread if I close.

Closed EUR/CAD long today 208.2 pips after its third attempt to break 1.4570 resistance which looked very strong. Attempt number four being made right now but I decided to book.

jpboard1

I'm selling eur/gbp/swiss franc against aud/nzd as opportunities arise. Using CCI 60 on 2 hr chart (200)

ixus

Big fx risk in markets at the moment.

jpboard1

ixus wrote: »

Big fx risk in markets at the moment.

Why do you say that?

daheff

jpboard1 wrote: »

Why do you say that?

China effectively devalued their currency twice in the last few days. theres a worry that a currency war may develop.

dasdog

Incredible risk off sentiment paradigm shift (risky market yes) against the dollar.

Bought AUD 0.7312 & NZD 0.6574 this morning.

Watching how EUR/USD behaves with its resistance levels. So far so good but there is a danger to being bullish with these two however the potential reward is big.

Edit
Closed AUD 0.7370, 58.4 pips earlier

Edit2
Keeping the NZD trade open, currently 0.662, 46 pips [Closed 0.6954, 20.9 pips]

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Incredible risk off sentiment paradigm shift (risky market yes) against the dollar.

Bought AUD 0.7312 & NZD 0.6574 this morning.

Watching how EUR/USD behaves with its resistance levels. So far so good but there is a danger to being bullish with these two however the potential reward is big.

Had to look that one up, still not sure what it means?

jpboard1

daheff wrote: »

China effectively devalued their currency twice in the last few days. theres a worry that a currency war may develop.

The currency wars have been ongoing for a while now

jpboard1

dasdog wrote: »

Incredible risk off sentiment paradigm shift (risky market yes) against the dollar.

Bought AUD 0.7312 & NZD 0.6574 this morning.

Watching how EUR/USD behaves with its resistance levels. So far so good but there is a danger to being bullish with these two however the potential reward is big.

I have been long eur/usd & eur/jpy a while now. Positions deep in the money. Partly closing positions. Leaving runners. Also sell eu/gbp/sfranc against aud/nzd. I think commodities are making a solid base here too(I hope! )

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Had to look that one up, still not sure what it means?

Mind was in work mode, the corporate bollocks should read:

Huge sentiment swing, Fed Sept expectations 50% to 38% (earlier today)
Gold $1123
Dollar being pummelled
etc.

I was expecting some news from China after the weekend but nothing on this scale so quickly.

dasdog

jpboard1 wrote: »

I have been long eur/usd & eur/jpy a while now. Positions deep in the money. Also sell eu/gbp/sfranc against aud/nzd. I think commodities are making a solid base here too(I hope! )

Nice one. Target for EUR/JPY? I remember a few months back it was struggling to break 140.5 (ish) when it was reasonably strong against USD.

moneymad

dasdog wrote: »

Nice one. Target for EUR/JPY? I remember a few months back it was struggling to break 140.5 (ish) when it was reasonably strong against USD.

1.60 is my target. The chinese are forcing everyone to devalue. This can go on for 10 years.

For ever odd

Dollar index has come back up through 96.39. Watch this level it's a good one.

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Dollar index has come back up through 96.39. Watch this level it's a good one.

Dollar appetite seems to be back this morning.
Bought USD/CAD just below 130 and closed a NZD long. Eyeing EUR also.

Closed
USD/CAD, 129.99/130.263, +32.1
EUR/USD cumulative scalps x2 -14.1

jpboard1

dasdog wrote: »

Nice one. Target for EUR/JPY? I remember a few months back it was struggling to break 140.5 (ish) when it was reasonably strong against USD.

moneymad wrote: »

1.60 is my target. The chinese are forcing everyone to devalue. This can go on for 10 years.

Targeting 14600 and then will re-assess. I would wait for a better entry than here though.

Fizman

Had two losing Gold trades earlier in the week off the back of the Chinese news, down 1.5% off the back of them.

Third trade of the week was initiated this morning. Bought the DAX at 11098 with a 30 point stop. Initial target of 100 points. Currently +50. May leave that in as I'm on the road with work shortly so won't be sitting in front of the markets. Think there is decent upside potential off the back of 2 big red days with an easing off yesterday evening.

jpboard1

Fizman wrote: »

Had two losing Gold trades earlier in the week off the back of the Chinese news, down 1.5% off the back of them.

Third trade of the week was initiated this morning. Bought the DAX at 11098 with a 30 point stop. Initial target of 100 points. Currently +50. May leave that in as I'm on the road with work shortly so won't be sitting in front of the markets. Think there is decent upside potential off the back of 2 big red days with an easing off yesterday evening.

30 points seems an incredibly tight stop?

Fizman

jpboard1 wrote: »

30 points seems an incredibly tight stop?

Really?

I reckon it depends on an individuals stake / trading maths. I've found in the past few months, particularly around Greek news, the DAX is quite volatile around this kind of news so large stops are typically not recommended, at least from many commentators I've been listening to. 3-4 months ago I had 2-3 particularly big stops blown out when in positive position, purely off the back of breaking news. I didn't really want to leave myself open to that again, at least for a while with the DAX. Forex products typically would be a lot less volatile so you could be more confident with bigger stop positions.

Fizman

Hindsight being a beautiful thing, I should have closed at +60 when I was leaving the laptop and taken my 2:1. Just stopped out as the index came back 100 pips.

jpboard1

Fizman wrote: »

Really?

I reckon it depends on an individuals stake / trading maths. I've found in the past few months, particularly around Greek news, the DAX is quite volatile around this kind of news so large stops are typically not recommended, at least from many commentators I've been listening to. 3-4 months ago I had 2-3 particularly big stops blown out when in positive position, purely off the back of breaking news. I didn't really want to leave myself open to that again, at least for a while with the DAX. Forex products typically would be a lot less volatile so you could be more confident with bigger stop positions.

I don't know. A thirty point stop is only 0.3 of 1%. That seems very tight to me.

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

I don't know. A thirty point stop is only 0.3 of 1%. That seems very tight to me.

Would you hold 1 contract, 10 contracts, 100 contracts, for more than a 30 point stop on a intra-day pivot point play?

ixus

Fizman wrote: »

Hindsight being a beautiful thing, I should have closed at +60 when I was leaving the laptop and taken my 2:1. Just stopped out as the index came back 100 pips.

You were right on a rally, but you were buying the tail end of it. Sold off 700, your bid was 200 off lows on a gap up.

Think about why your entry was wrong and why you expected a bigger rally. My guess is because of the recent big Greek rally. If it was, that's a different scenario. They had a deal, there was a reason for a big bid. China still devalued overnight. S&P was only up there coz of dollar move. Wasn't going to be enough to pull it higher.


I'm sure you could throw a fib level at it and see there was a technical cover around there too if inclined.

On the stops, algos are designed to take out tight stops. They seek them. But, i understand the need to keep it tight. Euro equities are in no mans land at the moment. Subject to the moves of other markets.

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

Would you hold 1 contract, 10 contracts, 100 contracts, for more than a 30 point stop on a intra-day pivot point play?

I don't really play intraday trading. Extremely hard to be profitable. From experience though I find stop losses can kill alot of decent trades.

jpboard1

Trying FCX long here. Think we could see a big rebound medium term

For ever odd

http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/trading-strategies/medium-term/why-medium.aspx

I should have put something like this at the start of the thread for educational purposes. Anyhow there is enough in it as a starting point.
The technicals apply to more than forex.

jpboard1

I am still to be convinced by alot of the technical indicators out there. The likes of MACD, BBs etc. I love to know of people on here who are profitable using the likes?

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

I am still to be convinced by alot of the technical indicators out there. The likes of MACD, BBs etc. I love to know of people on here who are profitable using the likes?

Or cci!:D I find technicals mixed with fundermentals works, the last few weeks or so, I have been mainly using technicals due to time constraints. Very profitable!

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

I don't really play intraday trading. Extremely hard to be profitable. From experience though I find stop losses can kill alot of decent trades.

It took me a while to recognise who you are, it was bugging me. Welcome back.

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

Or cci!:D I find technicals mixed with fundermentals works, the last few weeks or so, I have been mainly using technicals due to time constraints. Very profitable!

True. But I only use CCI for entry not for direction. My trades are nearly always on a fundie basis. What technicals do you use?

jpboard1

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

True. But I only use CCI for entry not for direction. My trades are nearly always on a fundie basis. What technicals do you use?

This might sound strange, but when I look at the charts, I am starting to see and hear what the market's are thinking. I don't understand why, but hey it is working for me so I will roll with it. I have mentioned a few simple indicators that I use for confirmation.

dasdog

jpboard1 wrote: »

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

I followed AUD/USD on the way down from above .80 and a bit like the UK they are looking to the domestic market to fuel growth. I haven't been there for over a decade but Sydney/Melbourne have fairly big housing bubbles which don't need further rate cut inflating and construction workers are in short supply. On the downside aside from the export decline, part time employment sticks out in their supposedly dubious job numbers.

ixus

jpboard1 wrote: »

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

What fundamentals are you looking at? If i recall, earlier, you said trades are based on this.

Commodity bounce?

Way i see it, commods are done. Gonzo long term. Bar geopolitical for oil.

Aus central bank want weaker currency.

Chinese were buying up Aus property. May stop. Market and banks there have big downside potential.

And, most importantly, Sept/Dec fomc is a strong head wind to a long usd position.

Caveat, i just dislike the notion of trading fx as you don't know what CB'S will do.

JONJO THE MISER

First time back trading fx and cfd's in a few months, just scalping today.

candlegrease

What kind of portfolios do you guys have?

jpboard1

candlegrease wrote: »

What kind of portfolios do you guys have?

I have mainly fx positions at present. Holding quite a few health companies and am starting to make some commodity plays. I think this area is bottoming out.