TRADER'S CORNER

jpboard1

ixus wrote: »

What fundamentals are you looking at? If i recall, earlier, you said trades are based on this.

Commodity bounce?

Way i see it, commods are done. Gonzo long term. Bar geopolitical for oil.

Aus central bank want weaker currency.

Chinese were buying up Aus property. May stop. Market and banks there have big downside potential.

And, most importantly, Sept/Dec fomc is a strong head wind to a long usd position.

Caveat, i just dislike the notion of trading fx as you don't know what CB'S will do.

The aud/usd trade is a play on China. Plus I am convinced that we are going to see serious usd weakness in the medium term

ixus

Being convinced of a trade and taking larger positions than usual and the back of recent positive trading returns can lead to a shock.

dasdog

AUD behaving as a Euro proxy and six year Oz lows. It's risky (ore). Bulls & Bears in the thread which is interesting.

JONJO THE MISER

dasdog wrote: »

AUD behaving as a Euro proxy and six year Oz lows. It's risky (ore). Bulls & Bears in the thread which is interesting.

I remember it being 2.10 to the Eur when i was working there and before that was between 1.60 to 1.80 for years.

For ever odd

http://fortune.com/2015/03/16/debt-ceiling/

Does anyone have any views on the US debt ceiling?

ixus

Indeed. Oh for the days when you would get 2 aus or nz for a euro. Gbp were getting 3 at the time.

That spike was 07-09 period. Commodities are almost there. Suggest people look at the history of big events. Anything is possible.

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

It is approaching a long term trend line from 2001 on the weekly charts. Weather the trend line holds or not remains to be seen.http://fxtop.com/php/imggraph.php?C1=AUD&C2=USD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2001&DD2=31&MM2=08&YYYY2=2015&LARGE=1&CJ=1&LANG=en&VAR=0
Can you expand more on your fundamental view?

jpboard1

ixus wrote: »

Being convinced of a trade and taking larger positions than usual and the back of recent positive trading returns can lead to a shock.

Very true. Important not to put 'all eggs in one basket'. That being said, many trades are linked so you are either long or short the dollar in many cases.

JONJO THE MISER

Anyone trade indices?
Last year used to scalp the ASX 200, did not move too much in any direction on any given night, actually was making good money on it but then of course i lost a fortune on FX, thinking of just sticking to indices this time around.

jpboard1

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Anyone trade indices?
Last year used to scalp the ASX 200, did not move too much in any direction on any given night, actually was making good money on it but then of course i lost a fortune on FX, thinking of just sticking to indices from now on.

I trade indices. Long S&P and related and long China.

JONJO THE MISER

jpboard1 wrote: »

I trade indices. Long S&P and related and long China.

Do you hold your positions long?
I prefer to scalp from my limited experience.

jpboard1

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Do you hold your positions long?
I prefer to scalp from my limited experience.

I hold them relatively long(compared to many of the posters here). But it really depends on price action. I am bullish US & China indices so currently have a full position in both. On any decent rally I close half and then wait for pull back to enter another half again. This way I will always catch some of the movement.

JONJO THE MISER

Just trying to get back into it again, have been reading up and trading on a demo account last few months, i must say i missed the ups and downs and buzz of trading.

For ever odd

[QUOTE=JONJO THE MISER;96623519[Anyone trade indices?
Last year used to scalp the ASX 200, did not move too much in any direction on any given night, actually was making good money on it but then of course i lost a fortune on FX, thinking of just sticking to indices this time around.[/QUOTE]

I am short the dow, dax and ftse for a while now.

jpboard1

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Just trying to get back into it again, have been reading up and trading on a demo account last few months, i must say i missed the ups and downs and buzz of trading.

Its addictive alright. Can be dangerous!

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

It is approaching a long term trend line from 2001 on the weekly charts. Weather the trend line holds or not remains to be seen.http://fxtop.com/php/imggraph.php?C1=AUD&C2=USD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2001&DD2=31&MM2=08&YYYY2=2015&LARGE=1&CJ=1&LANG=en&VAR=0
Can you expand more on your fundamental view?

The Fed need a weaker dollar. The current strength of the dollar is stifling growth. The market wants to go higher but has been unable for months now. The Fed nearly always gets what it wants. I wouldn't bet against them.

Roonbox

jpboard1 wrote: »

Very true. Important not to put 'all eggs in one basket'. That being said, many trades are linked so you are either long or short the dollar in many cases.

It is OK to put all your eggs in one basket, as long as you watch that basket very very carefully

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

The Fed need a weaker dollar. The current strength of the dollar is stifling growth. The market wants to go higher but has been unable for months now. The Fed nearly always gets what it wants. I wouldn't bet against them.

For what it's worth I think your trade idea is a good one,albeit for the wrong reasons.
The trade is relienant on a major risk off environment.

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

For what it's worth I think your trade idea is a good one,albeit for the wrong reasons.
The trade is relienant on a major risk off environment.

What do you think the reasons are?

For ever odd

jpboard1 wrote: »

What do you think the reasons are?[/QUOTE

I will not be wasting anymore of my time on you.

jpboard1

For ever odd wrote: »

jpboard1 wrote: »

What do you think the reasons are?[/QUOTE

I will not be wasting anymore of my time on you.

??

candlegrease

Is everyone in here trying to time the market?

ixus

Define time the market.

arrowloopboy

candlegrease wrote: »

Is everyone in here trying to time the market?

Of coarse ,to an extent anyway ,some more than others,some of the guys on here are day trading/scalping ,the longer the time frame your trading,the less critical timing/entry/exits are !

jpboard1

I really need to improve my entry/exit. My trades are profitable enough in general but my technical execution needs improvement big time.

For ever odd

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Still short light crude since 5995.00 and again 5500.00/5000.00/4800.00,it closed yesterday evening at 4417.00, this one trade has given me nearly 4000 points , which has turned this into one of my best years ever , and has reinforced my belief in medium term trading rather than scalping , enjoy the weekend guys 😀😀😀

Russia oil company rosneft is planning to increase oil production.
America is planning to lift export ban and sell to Mexico.
OPEC are keeping production level up.
A serious game of chicken being played....a Mexican stand off so to speak.

daheff

anybody got an interest in Providence resources?


Price is falling off a cliff for these guys. Down from a high of 8.52 a few years back to 0.19 on fridays close.

I know falling oil prices dont help these guys, but I cant see 19c being a reasonable valuation. Also you'd be fairly f*cked off if you put in money on their recent issue (IIRC it was 36c a share).

anybody got a view on where the price is going?

I'm seeing this as a good speculative (ie prepare to lose everything) buy

For ever odd

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/17/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0QM00O20150817

U.S. crude has fallen for seven weeks in a row, settling down again last week after another weekly rise in U.S. oil rig additions on Friday that hinted at growing production.

While Brent has fared relatively better versus the selloff in U.S. crude, it also has been pressured by data showing a continuous glut in global oil supply, such as Oman's record-breaking production of 1 million barrels per day in July.

Demand for crude is set to fall further in the next few weeks as U.S. and European refineries start maintenance for autumn.

Money managers and hedge funds have cut their combined net long positions in U.S. crude to 2010 lows and in Brent to December 2014 lows, in an apparent growing consensus that oil prices will likely remain low for a while, data shows.

For ever odd

The Germans are at it again.... A prelude to the upcoming tensions between Germany and the rest of Europe.

arrowloopboy

For ever odd wrote: »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/17/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0QM00O20150817

U.S. crude has fallen for seven weeks in a row, settling down again last week after another weekly rise in U.S. oil rig additions on Friday that hinted at growing production.

While Brent has fared relatively better versus the selloff in U.S. crude, it also has been pressured by data showing a continuous glut in global oil supply, such as Oman's record-breaking production of 1 million barrels per day in July.

Demand for crude is set to fall further in the next few weeks as U.S. and European refineries start maintenance for autumn.

Money managers and hedge funds have cut their combined net long positions in U.S. crude to 2010 lows and in Brent to December 2014 lows, in an apparent growing consensus that oil prices will likely remain low for a while, data shows.

I've been reading Reuters news feeds daily for the past month ,their seems to be no positive news for crude, over supply,china,iran it all points down ,I'm tooled up for a large long position ,which I initially fancied at the spring low of $42,but now i'm thinking $38 ,i'm also short multiple times since 5995.00 ,which will partially finance my big long position.

jpboard1

Adding another half position to eur/usd long here

pajero12

If I ever find the lad using 1000 lots on every Brent open and Close :mad:

jpboard1

Also looking at GBP/USD as a hedge

TheFin

Yes, pure speculative punt; just like Atlantic Resources, Aran Energy, Bula before them

ixus

jpboard1 wrote: »

Also looking at GBP/USD as a hedge

Have you an inside on the fomc minutes that are due?

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

I am short the dow, dax and ftse for a while now.

I will be buying spot on all of these tomorrow to cover my shorts. Haven't had time to follow/research the last couple of weeks. Tried to speed read/research at the weekend and nearly had a brain melt :rolleyes:
Took my eye of the ball so it's to late to be making rash decisions,I will wait and let the
market tell me which way it's going to from here.
EDIT
I could be wrong, but it looks like the bulls are are afraid and covering more longs than the bears shorts this morning

jpboard1

ixus wrote: »

Have you an inside on the fomc minutes that are due?

I wish I had! I don't really trade those kind of events. Only look at them as opportunities if the go against the trend. If that makes sense?

ixus

Why not work exit prices today? Work an extreme price, like 10520 dax. If you get pinged, great. If not, you cover as planned. Extreme moves tend to happen intraday. Dax could do 3/400 points and bounce hard. Always be working that lotto exit fill.

For ever odd wrote: »

I will be buying spot on all of these tomorrow to cover my shorts. Haven't had time to follow/research the last couple of weeks. Tried to speed read/research at the weekend and nearly had a brain melt :rolleyes:
Took my eye of the ball so it's to late to be making rash decisions,I will wait and let the market tell me which way it's going to from here.

ixus

If you trade fx, central banks is all you are trading. Reality is you've initiated a position ahead of fomc minutes.

A lot of current turmoil is leveraged part getting out ahead of the event.

Most would reduce risk ahead of event. You have added to positions. That's why i asked if you had insight.

jpboard1 wrote: »

I wish I had! I don't really trade those kind of events. Only look at them as opportunities if the go against the trend. Make sense?

jpboard1

ixus wrote: »

If you trade fx, central banks is all you are trading. Reality is you've initiated a position ahead of fomc minutes.

A lot of current turmoil is leveraged part getting out ahead of the event.

Most would reduce risk ahead of event. You have added to positions. That's why i asked if you had insight.

Nah, unfortunately I am way too far down the food chain to get any info. My leverage is mild enough in that the intraday moves don't effect me too much.

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

Why not work exit prices today? Work an extreme price, like 10520 dax. If you get pinged, great. If not, you cover as planned. Extreme moves tend to happen intraday. Dax could do 3/400 points and bounce hard. Always be working that lotto exit fill.

I will wait for Us open and see does it mirror European open... Cpi as well. I will have to rely on technicals now.

Thanks.
EDIT
Bought dow spot @ 17300

EDIT 2
Stopped out.

arrowloopboy

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Still short light crude since 5995.00 and again 5500.00/5000.00/4800.00,it closed yesterday evening at 4417.00, this one trade has given me nearly 4000 points , which has turned this into one of my best years ever , and has reinforced my belief in medium term trading rather than scalping , enjoy the weekend guys 😀😀😀

This is continuing to fall asunder ,currently 4080.00 ,after us invintories came in higher than expected ,and production seems to be increased week on week which baffles me slightly ,considering the value of what their pumping out of the ground is at a 6 year low.I'm not complaining ,as its simply the trade that keeps giving ,the problem is,i want to be a medium /long term buyer at the right price .The fundimentals are pointing as low as $35 which would be lovely ,but could some of the Technical wizards on here run their wand over a light crude chart and tell me what they see:),cheers,arrow.

For ever odd

arrowloopboy wrote: »

This is continuing to fall asunder ,currently 4080.00 ,after us invintories came in higher than expected ,and production seems to be increased week on week which baffles me slightly ,considering the value of what their pumping out of the ground is at a 6 year low.I'm not complaining ,as its simply the trade that keeps giving ,the problem is,i want to be a medium /long term buyer at the right price .The fundimentals are pointing as low as $35 which would be lovely ,but could some of the Technical wizards on here run their wand over a light crude chart and tell me what they see:),cheers,arrow.

Why are you trying to call a bottom on a winning trade?
Post 277 is my view.

jpboard1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

This is continuing to fall asunder ,currently 4080.00 ,after us invintories came in higher than expected ,and production seems to be increased week on week which baffles me slightly ,considering the value of what their pumping out of the ground is at a 6 year low.I'm not complaining ,as its simply the trade that keeps giving ,the problem is,i want to be a medium /long term buyer at the right price .The fundimentals are pointing as low as $35 which would be lovely ,but could some of the Technical wizards on here run their wand over a light crude chart and tell me what they see:),cheers,arrow.

If you are in from that high you are big in profit. If the lowest you are expecting is 35 and you are looking for long term, I would start adding small here. But that's just the way I trade. Of course crude always overshoots. Keep an eye on cad/usd and nok/usd for indications.

P_Cash

Long on eurusd 1.1103

You may get chance to jump in if it comes to 1090/1100

P_Cash

P_Cash wrote: »

Long on eurusd 1.1103

You may get chance to jump in if it comes to 1090/1100

Move stop to BE at 1.1103

Set TP for 1.1200

P_Cash

P_Cash wrote: »

Move stop to BE at 1.1103

Set TP for 1.1200

Trade closed 1.1173

jpboard1

jpboard1 wrote: »

Adding another half position to eur/usd long here

Closed for good profit. Will add another half position on another dip

jpboard1

Trying a half position long on the S&P here as well

For ever odd

Profits locked in.

Enjoy the weekend lads.