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For ever odd · 13-08-2015 11:32pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

I am still to be convinced by alot of the technical indicators out there. The likes of MACD, BBs etc. I love to know of people on here who are profitable using the likes?

Or cci!:D I find technicals mixed with fundermentals works, the last few weeks or so, I have been mainly using technicals due to time constraints. Very profitable!

For ever odd · 14-08-2015 1:10am

jpboard1 wrote: »

I don't really play intraday trading. Extremely hard to be profitable. From experience though I find stop losses can kill alot of decent trades.

It took me a while to recognise who you are, it was bugging me. Welcome back.

jpboard1 · 14-08-2015 9:26am

For ever odd wrote: »

Or cci!:D I find technicals mixed with fundermentals works, the last few weeks or so, I have been mainly using technicals due to time constraints. Very profitable!

True. But I only use CCI for entry not for direction. My trades are nearly always on a fundie basis. What technicals do you use?

jpboard1 · 14-08-2015 5:42pm

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

For ever odd · 14-08-2015 6:55pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

True. But I only use CCI for entry not for direction. My trades are nearly always on a fundie basis. What technicals do you use?

This might sound strange, but when I look at the charts, I am starting to see and hear what the market's are thinking. I don't understand why, but hey it is working for me so I will roll with it. I have mentioned a few simple indicators that I use for confirmation.

dasdog · 14-08-2015 8:53pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

I followed AUD/USD on the way down from above .80 and a bit like the UK they are looking to the domestic market to fuel growth. I haven't been there for over a decade but Sydney/Melbourne have fairly big housing bubbles which don't need further rate cut inflating and construction workers are in short supply. On the downside aside from the export decline, part time employment sticks out in their supposedly dubious job numbers.

ixus · 14-08-2015 10:48pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

What fundamentals are you looking at? If i recall, earlier, you said trades are based on this.

Commodity bounce?

Way i see it, commods are done. Gonzo long term. Bar geopolitical for oil.

Aus central bank want weaker currency.

Chinese were buying up Aus property. May stop. Market and banks there have big downside potential.

And, most importantly, Sept/Dec fomc is a strong head wind to a long usd position.

Caveat, i just dislike the notion of trading fx as you don't know what CB'S will do.

JONJO THE MISER · 15-08-2015 12:02am

First time back trading fx and cfd's in a few months, just scalping today.

candlegrease · 15-08-2015 5:54am

What kind of portfolios do you guys have?

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 1:22pm

candlegrease wrote: »

What kind of portfolios do you guys have?

I have mainly fx positions at present. Holding quite a few health companies and am starting to make some commodity plays. I think this area is bottoming out.

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 1:25pm

ixus wrote: »

What fundamentals are you looking at? If i recall, earlier, you said trades are based on this.

Commodity bounce?

Way i see it, commods are done. Gonzo long term. Bar geopolitical for oil.

Aus central bank want weaker currency.

Chinese were buying up Aus property. May stop. Market and banks there have big downside potential.

And, most importantly, Sept/Dec fomc is a strong head wind to a long usd position.

Caveat, i just dislike the notion of trading fx as you don't know what CB'S will do.

The aud/usd trade is a play on China. Plus I am convinced that we are going to see serious usd weakness in the medium term

ixus · 15-08-2015 1:47pm

Being convinced of a trade and taking larger positions than usual and the back of recent positive trading returns can lead to a shock.

dasdog · 15-08-2015 2:11pm

AUD behaving as a Euro proxy and six year Oz lows. It's risky (ore). Bulls & Bears in the thread which is interesting.

JONJO THE MISER · 15-08-2015 3:13pm

dasdog wrote: »

AUD behaving as a Euro proxy and six year Oz lows. It's risky (ore). Bulls & Bears in the thread which is interesting.

I remember it being 2.10 to the Eur when i was working there and before that was between 1.60 to 1.80 for years.

For ever odd · 15-08-2015 3:25pm

http://fortune.com/2015/03/16/debt-ceiling/

Does anyone have any views on the US debt ceiling?

ixus · 15-08-2015 3:27pm

imggraph.php?C1=EUR&C2=AUD&A=1&DD1=15&MM1=08&YYYY1=2001&DD2=15&MM2=08&YYYY2=2015&LANG=en&CJ=0&MM1Y=0&LARGE=

Indeed. Oh for the days when you would get 2 aus or nz for a euro. Gbp were getting 3 at the time.

That spike was 07-09 period. Commodities are almost there. Suggest people look at the history of big events. Anything is possible.

For ever odd · 15-08-2015 3:46pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

Looking at taking up large long in aud/usd medium term.

It is approaching a long term trend line from 2001 on the weekly charts. Weather the trend line holds or not remains to be seen.http://fxtop.com/php/imggraph.php?C1=AUD&C2=USD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2001&DD2=31&MM2=08&YYYY2=2015&LARGE=1&CJ=1&LANG=en&VAR=0
Can you expand more on your fundamental view?

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 4:24pm

ixus wrote: »

Being convinced of a trade and taking larger positions than usual and the back of recent positive trading returns can lead to a shock.

Very true. Important not to put 'all eggs in one basket'. That being said, many trades are linked so you are either long or short the dollar in many cases.

JONJO THE MISER · 15-08-2015 4:29pm

Anyone trade indices?
Last year used to scalp the ASX 200, did not move too much in any direction on any given night, actually was making good money on it but then of course i lost a fortune on FX, thinking of just sticking to indices this time around.

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 4:30pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Anyone trade indices?
Last year used to scalp the ASX 200, did not move too much in any direction on any given night, actually was making good money on it but then of course i lost a fortune on FX, thinking of just sticking to indices from now on.

I trade indices. Long S&P and related and long China.

JONJO THE MISER · 15-08-2015 4:32pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

I trade indices. Long S&P and related and long China.

Do you hold your positions long?
I prefer to scalp from my limited experience.

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 4:37pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Do you hold your positions long?
I prefer to scalp from my limited experience.

I hold them relatively long(compared to many of the posters here). But it really depends on price action. I am bullish US & China indices so currently have a full position in both. On any decent rally I close half and then wait for pull back to enter another half again. This way I will always catch some of the movement.

JONJO THE MISER · 15-08-2015 4:41pm

Just trying to get back into it again, have been reading up and trading on a demo account last few months, i must say i missed the ups and downs and buzz of trading.

For ever odd · 15-08-2015 4:53pm

[QUOTE=JONJO THE MISER;96623519[Anyone trade indices?
Last year used to scalp the ASX 200, did not move too much in any direction on any given night, actually was making good money on it but then of course i lost a fortune on FX, thinking of just sticking to indices this time around.[/QUOTE]

I am short the dow, dax and ftse for a while now.

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 4:54pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Just trying to get back into it again, have been reading up and trading on a demo account last few months, i must say i missed the ups and downs and buzz of trading.

Its addictive alright. Can be dangerous!

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 5:07pm

For ever odd wrote: »

It is approaching a long term trend line from 2001 on the weekly charts. Weather the trend line holds or not remains to be seen.http://fxtop.com/php/imggraph.php?C1=AUD&C2=USD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2001&DD2=31&MM2=08&YYYY2=2015&LARGE=1&CJ=1&LANG=en&VAR=0
Can you expand more on your fundamental view?

The Fed need a weaker dollar. The current strength of the dollar is stifling growth. The market wants to go higher but has been unable for months now. The Fed nearly always gets what it wants. I wouldn't bet against them.

Roonbox · 15-08-2015 8:13pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

Very true. Important not to put 'all eggs in one basket'. That being said, many trades are linked so you are either long or short the dollar in many cases.

It is OK to put all your eggs in one basket, as long as you watch that basket very very carefully

For ever odd · 15-08-2015 9:54pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

The Fed need a weaker dollar. The current strength of the dollar is stifling growth. The market wants to go higher but has been unable for months now. The Fed nearly always gets what it wants. I wouldn't bet against them.

For what it's worth I think your trade idea is a good one,albeit for the wrong reasons.
The trade is relienant on a major risk off environment.

jpboard1 · 15-08-2015 10:25pm

For ever odd wrote: »

For what it's worth I think your trade idea is a good one,albeit for the wrong reasons.
The trade is relienant on a major risk off environment.

What do you think the reasons are?

For ever odd · 15-08-2015 11:44pm

jpboard1 wrote: »

What do you think the reasons are?[/QUOTE

I will not be wasting anymore of my time on you.

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