May 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 11.1 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum daily rainfall at any reporting station in Ireland during May. Give the date and location for possible extra bonus points (eight points for the amount, one each for date and location but these double if you get both right). Example of a valid answer -- Ballyhaise 25.0 on 31st -- that was not meant to be a prediction.

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Friday 1st of May, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Saturday, the 2nd of May. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

Enter in the thread, here's my go which you could use as a template and a set of values to be avoided.

M.T. Cranium ________ 10.4 __ 23.0 __ -2.5 __ 120 __ 090 ___ 35.5 (Claremorris, 23rd)

Schadenfreudia

10.6 __ 21.0 __ -3.5 __ 110 __ 095 ___ 25.5 (Valentia, 19th)

200motels

10.9____22.6____-2.3____121____90_____24.5 (Claremorris) 26th

Bsal

Bsal ___ 11.0 __ 22.9 __ -1.7 __ 105 __ 103 ___ 28.0 (Ballyhaise, 17th)

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___ 10.5 __ 21.2 __ -1.9 __ 115 __ 98 ___ 26.0 (Valentia 20th)

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 11.8 __ 23.6 __ -1.9 __ 97 __ 105 ___ 23.5 (Casement, 2nd)

dasa29

Dasa29 ________ 11.0 __ 22.0 __ -1.5 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 22.0 (Valentia, 5th)

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ________ 10.5 __ 22.0 __ -2.0 __ 75 __ 121 ___ 15.5 (Valentia, 21st)

pauldry

Pauldry ________ 10.4 __ 21.0 __ -1.8__ 96 __ 104___ 30 (Cork 2nd)

omicron

omicron ________ 11.5 __ 23.0 __ -1.0 __ 95 __ 110 ___ 28.0 (Valentia, 15th)

rameire

Rameire ________ 10.8 __ 22.8 __ -1.5 __ 107 __ 097 ___ 17.0 (Gurteen, 2nd)

mrskinner

MrSkinner________ 11.4 __ 23.1 __ 0.6 __ 103 __ 104 ___ 34.1 (Valentia, 2nd)

dacogawa

Dacogawa ________ 10.9 __ 23.6 __ -1.6 __ 105 __ 095 ___ 32.5 (Valentia, 10th)

Joe Public

11.9 __ 22.9 __ -2.9 __ 119 __ 109 ___ 29.9 (Casement, 5th)

Lumi

Lumi ________ 11.4 __ 22.8__ -1.9 __ 121 __ 089 ___ 28.5 (Sherkin Island, 17th)

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 11.5 __ 21.5 __ -0.5 __ 130 __ 092 ___ 25.0 (Mace Head, 2nd)

Tae laidir

mrskinner wrote: »

MrSkinner________ 11.4 __ 23.1 __ 0.6 __ 103 __ 104 ___ 34.1 (Valentia, 2nd)

Was never sure whether it was Mr. Skinner or Mrs. Kinner.
Thanks for clarifying

mrskinner

You are welcome, Tae.

It's W. Seymour Skinner actually!

waterways

waterways ________ 11.4 __ 26.0 __ -1.9__ 100 __ 113 ___ 37 (Cork, 28)

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 10.4 __ 22.5 __ -1.2__ 145 __ 85___ 40 (Shannon, 16)

lostinashford

11.4 __ 21.0 __ -0.7 __ 118 __ 099 ___ 32.5 (Valentia, 2nd)

John mac

john mac______12.0 __ 22.0 __ -1.5 __ 110 __ 104 ___ 18 (knock 18th)

kindredspirit

KS____________11.7___________24.0________________0.5_______________135_____________90____________30______________15th______________Claremorris

Rikand

Rikand ______ 11.0 ________ 25.0 ________ -1.0 ______ 110 _______ 110 _______ 25 ___ [phoenix park 25th]

Harps

Harps ___ 11.3 __ 23.9 __ -1.7 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 32.0 (Valentia, 17th)

M.T. Cranium

I am the grim reaper, storing your forecasts before you can edit in rainfall data from Saturday. And here they be:

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

john mac __________ 12.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 104 __ 18.0 Knock, 18th
JoePublic __________ 11.9 _ 22.9 _ -2.9 _ 119 _ 109 __ 29.9 Casement, 5th
DOCARCH _________ 11.8 _ 23.6 _ -1.9 _ 097 _ 105 __ 23.5 Casement, 2nd
kindredspirit _______ 11.7 _ 24.0 _ +0.5 _ 135 _ 090 __ 30.0 Claremorris, 15th
jd ____(-15)________11.7 _ 23.1 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 100
omicron ___________ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 095 _ 110 __ 28.0 Valentia, 15th
Tae laidir __________ 11.5 _ 21.5 _ -0.5 _ 130 _ 092 __ 25.0 Mace Head, 2nd
waterways _________ 11.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.9 _ 100 _ 113 __ 37.0 Cork, 28th
MrSkinner _________ 11.4 _ 23.1 _ +0.6 _ 103 _ 104 __ 34.1 Valentia, 2nd
Lumi ______________11.4 _ 22.8 _ -1.9 _ 121 _ 089 __ 28.5 Sherkin Island, 17th
lostinashford _______ 11.4 _ 21.0 _ -0.7 _ 118 _ 099 __ 32.5 Valentia, 2nd
Harps ___(-5)_______11.3 _ 23.9 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 110 __ 32.0 Valentia, 17th
Rikand ____________ 11.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 __ 25.0 Phoenix Park, 25th

Con Sensus ________ 11.2 _ 22.9 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 102 __ 28.0 Valentia, 2nd

Bsal ______________ 11.0 _ 22.9 _ -1.7 _ 105 _ 103 __ 28.0 Ballyhaise, 17th
Dasa29 ____________11.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 120 __ 22.0 Valentia, 5th
Dacogawa _________ 10.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.6 _ 105 _ 095 __ 32.5 Valentia, 10th
200motels _________ 10.9 _ 22.6 _ -2.3 _ 121 _ 090 __ 24.5 Claremorris, 26th
Rameire ___________10.8 _ 22.8 _ -1.5 _ 107 _ 097 __ 17.0 Gurteen, 2nd
Schadenfreudia _____ 10.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 095 __ 25.5 Valentia, 19th
mickger844posts ____ 10.5 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 075 _ 121 __ 15.5 Valentia, 21st
Sunflower3 _________10.5 _ 21.2 _ -1.9 _ 115 _ 098 __ 26.0 Valentia, 20th
M.T. Cranium _______10.4 _ 23.0 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 35.5 Claremorris, 23rd
Jpmarn____________ 10.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.2 _ 145 _ 085 __ 40.0 Shannon, 16th
Pauldry ___________ 10.4 _ 21.0 _ -1.8 _ 096 _ 104 __ 30.0 Cork 2nd
______________________________________________________________

later entries will be edited in, please note that bonus answers that are later than this post will be subject to max of 7 pts if 2nd is selected, and date/loc'n will not score, but if not, just the standard late penalty will apply and the bonus will be scored equally to others.

Con Sensus is (edit) mean of 12th and 13th ranked value (median of 24) except for bonus which is 12th ranked (median of 23) with the most frequent location and date. The 23 votes for location of maximum rainfall so far are:

Valentia ___ 9
Claremorris _3
Casement __ 2
Cork ______ 2
Ballyhaise, Gurteen, Knock, Mace Head, Phoenix Park, Shannon, Sherkin Island __ 1 each

Distribution of dates is of course skewed towards 2nd by short term forecasts so this is the way it broke down:
1st __ --
2nd __ 6
5th __ 2
10th __ 1
15th __ 2
16th __ 1
17th __ 3
18th __ 1
19th __ 1
20th __ 1
21st __ 1
23rd __ 1
25th __ 1
26th __ 1
28th __ 1


Thanks for entering and good luck !

omicron

Cork Airport 38.5mm yesterday.

Tae laidir

Nice rebound, Pauldry .

jd

JD 11.7 __ 23.1 __ -2.1 __ 110__ 100 ___ ...

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Nice rebound, Pauldry .

Not safe yet as only yesterday malin head had 35mm

ALso thundery may ahead so my rainfall figures dead.

Id reckon rainfall closer to 150% likely

M.T. Cranium

Even that could prove to be conservative, I just checked the rainfall figures to date for the eleven sites used and already the average is about four times normal with another heavy rainfall expected in some parts tonight and tomorrow, and a downpour on the charts for Friday night into Saturday. There are further opportunities shown around the middle of the following week. If these maps are generally accurate then we're going to be locked into at least 180% of normal by the 15th even if later portions of May are dry. If they aren't, we could be over 200%. I can almost guarantee that we'll be scoring PRC by the minimum progression (which is 18,16,15, 14,13, 12,11,10,10,9,9 ... etc, so everyone will score something anyway).

The bonus points are also settled because the amount is already at the average of the two highest predictions. So it's 8 points in the bag for JPmarn, waterways and MTC, with 7 going to MrSkinner, lostinashford and Dacogawa. Groups of three from there down to one point for the lowest three. The date and location are not yet known for certain but if it were the 2nd then Pauldry doubles up to add four points to his six for amount. Nobody else can double up from the 2nd but several others have a point for either Cork or 2nd if these hold up. It will be interesting to see how the later predictions fare as this series of downpours probably can't be sustained indefinitely. That's because it isn't summer yet.