May 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days ...

IMT _ 9.3 C

PRC _ 344% of normal

SUN _ 72% of normal

Probably no contenders for MAX or MIN, that I noticed anyway.

By the end of today, would expect that enough rain will have fallen to guarantee a normal amount for May and so we're now working on the amount above normal.

M.T. Cranium

Just for later reference, -0.8 C at Markree on 1st may hold up all month as MIN. Nothing so far likely to qualify as MAX.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just for later reference, -0.8 C at Markree on 1st may hold up all month as MIN. Nothing so far likely to qualify as MAX.

BElmullet had 18c on may 13th MAX

Certainly in the next 7 days nothing near 20 degrees.

Maybe in last week if high shifts the polar cell over us

IF next week was january!

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks,

IMT on 9.6 (the second week at 9.9) running a bit below normal, this value likely to be preserved more or less well into the final stages -- will say 10.0 a reasonable estimate for end of month based on current guidance.

PRC continues to run very high, now 256% after the second week managed 167%, although Malin Head actually ran below normal (the wettest sites were Johnstown Castle and Cork).

SUN recovered some of its dignity and is now on 84% after a respectable 95% with the southwest a little above normal.

So far MAX appears to be 18.0 and MIN --0.8 C.

No change to the earlier status of the bonus question (Cork 2nd 38.5 mm).

pauldry

Last week of may will see 20 to 22c

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks, and with a slight amount of missing data to estimate, this is where I think things have settled:

IMT about 9.4

PRC about 200% of normal after a more average sort of week.

SUN has only edged up slightly to 85% (the week at 87%).

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 20.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, with finishing values estimated in brackets:

IMT on 10.1 (10.0)

PRC now 166% of normal after a relatively dry week of 54%, finish (170%).

SUN has lost ground to 80% thanks to a dull week especially at Belmullet (77%).


Could post a provisional scoring table as almost everything requires some application of the mercy rule, or is settled as in the bonus (amount on Saturday could conceivably change things for date but not for order of forecasted amounts).

Schadenfreudia

I wish to apply for a large dollop of the mercy rule

M.T. Cranium

Provisional Scoring for May 2015

This table will be either edited or reposted when the numbers are official. The values used are shown.

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

___ Estimated values __ 10.0_20.1_-0.8_170_077___38.5 Cork 2nd

Jpmarn____________ 21 _ 12* _ 16 _ 15* _ 09 __ 08 + 0 ______ 81
lostinashford _______ 11 _ 17* _ 19 _ 11* _ 06 __ 07 + 1 ______ 72
Tae laidir __________ 10 _ 14* _ 17 _ 13* _ 08 __ 04 + 1 ______ 67
Pauldry ___________ 21 _ 17* _ 10 _ 02* _ 05 __ 06 +2+2 ____ 65
Sunflower3 _________20 _ 15* _ 09 _ 10* _ 06 __ 04 + 0 ______ 64
M.T. Cranium _______21 _ 09* _ 03 _ 12* _ 08 __ 08 + 0 ______ 61
Rameire ___________ 17 _ 11* _ 13 _ 09*_ 07 __ 02 + 1 ______ 60
Dacogawa _________ 16 _ 07* _ 12 _ 08* _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ______ 57
200motels _________ 16 _ 12* _ 05 _ 12* _ 08 __ 04 + 0 ______ 57
Schadenfreudia _____ 19 _ 17* _ 00 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 57

Con Sensus ________ 13 _ 11* _ 11 _ 10* _ 06 __ 05 + 1 ______ 57

Lumi ______________11 _ 11* _ 09 _ 12* _ 08 __ 05 + 0 ______ 56
Dasa29 ____________15 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 02 __ 03 + 0 ______ 56
Bsal ______________ 15 _ 11* _ 11 _ 08* _ 05 __ 05 + 0 ______ 55
Rikand ____________ 15 _ 02* _ 18 _ 10* _ 04 __ 04 + 0 ______ 53
omicron ___________ 10 _ 09* _ 18 _ 02* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 48
john mac __________ 05 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 05 __ 02 + 0 ______ 48
kindredspirit ________08 _ 03* _ 07 _ 14* _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ______ 46
MrSkinner _________ 11 _ 09* _ 06 _ 06* _ 05 __ 07 + 1 ______ 45
Harps ___(-5)_______12 _ 06* _ 11 _ 10* _ 04 __ 06 + 0 __ 49-5=44
mickger844posts ____ 20 _ 13* _ 08 __ 00 _ 02 __ 01 + 0 ______ 44
waterways _________ 11 _ 01* _ 09 _ 05*_ 03 __ 08 + 1 ______ 38
JoePublic __________ 06 _ 11* _ 00 _ 11* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 37
DOCARCH _________ 07 _ 07* _ 09 _ 03* _ 05 __ 03 + 1 ______ 35
jd ____(-10)________08 _ 08* _ 07 _ 10* _ 06 __ not in __ 39-10=29



______________________________________________________________

* minimum progression scores for MAX and PRC, also SUN was scored from 80% which gives each score a boost of one point. Since jd had both a late penalty and sat out the bonus (probably thinking it had already been settled) I changed his late penalty to 10 from 15 as otherwise it was more like 20-25.

These scores can only change slightly now, if a heavier rainfall occurs over the last three days then the date bonuses will be removed and waterways with the latest of our forecast dates will get that, and if Cork does not retain its dubious distinction then location bonus could change. Pauldry would potentially then lose his super-bonus for having the right location and date.

Will confirm these scores on 2nd or 3rd of June, I hope, then post the annual as well as spring seasonal rankings.

dasa29

HI MT that is a nice scoreboard but I think you are missing one entry.

Schadenfreudia

dasa29 wrote: »

HI MT that is a nice scoreboard but I think you are missing one entry.

Dasa29?? :rolleyes:

Tae laidir

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Dasa29?? :rolleyes:

No - Con Sensus.
I checked the first four entries and couldn't find him.

M.T. Cranium

Sorry about that, I score them all then put them in order, must have somehow erased the line in that part of the operation. Would have noticed when I did the annual scoring probably. Anyway, dasa29 had 56 and I have added that to the table.

Umm also, in case anyone notices, I made an error in post 31 talking about the minimum progression being likely for PRC -- this category is only worth 15 so the list I provided is for MAX (or MIN) not what I ended up giving out for PRC. The MAX was a bit tricky in that three were closest so I gave them the mean of the first and second values used, then went on from there. So that's why you may note that there are three scores of 17 followed by lower scores in MAX. I was pretty generous with both MAX and PRC, the raw scores would have been fairly low for MAX and for almost everyone zero for PRC.

M.T. Cranium

IMT actual value is 9.9 C -- reduce all scores by one. If that's the only edit needed, the table will stand and I will just take off the point in the annual table.

I could work out the actual precip but might as well save the bother and wait for the Monthly Summary since I am sure that the scoring there won't change.

Looks as though the 30th failed to overcome the 2nd with Finner coming the closest on the 30th but less than either the 2nd or 3rd produced. So the bonus will stand, if the MS has some other amount from a station we don't normally see in the tables, I will be ignoring that.

rameire

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057438069

So people don't forget
Get your June predictions in.
Link above.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring table for May 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

__ Confirmed values __9.9_20.1_-0.8_174_082___38.5 Cork 2nd

Jpmarn____________ 20 _ 12* _ 16 _ 15* _ 09 __ 08 + 0 ______ 80
lostinashford _______ 10 _ 17* _ 19 _ 11* _ 07 __ 07 + 1 ______ 72
Tae laidir __________ 09 _ 14* _ 17 _ 13* _ 08 __ 04 + 1 ______ 66
Pauldry ____________20 _ 17* _ 10 _ 02* _ 06 __ 06 +2+2 ____ 65
Sunflower3 _________19 _ 15* _ 09 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 64
M.T. Cranium _______20 _ 09* _ 03 _ 12* _ 08 __ 08 + 0 ______ 60
Rameire ___________ 16 _ 11* _ 13 _ 09*_ 07 __ 02 + 1 ______ 59
Dacogawa _________ 15 _ 07* _ 12 _ 08* _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ______ 56
200motels _________ 15 _ 12* _ 05 _ 12* _ 08 __ 04 + 0 ______ 56
Schadenfreudia _____ 18 _ 17* _ 00 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 56
Lumi ______________10 _ 11* _ 09 _ 12* _ 09 __ 05 + 0 ______ 56

Con Sensus ________ 12 _ 11* _ 11 _ 10* _ 06 __ 05 + 1 ______ 56

Dasa29 ____________14 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 02 __ 03 + 0 ______ 55
Bsal ______________ 14 _ 11* _ 11 _ 08* _ 06 __ 05 + 0 ______ 55
Rikand ____________ 14 _ 02* _ 18 _ 10* _ 04 __ 04 + 0 ______ 52
john mac __________ 04 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 06 __ 02 + 0 ______ 48
omicron ___________ 09 _ 09* _ 18 _ 02* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 47
kindredspirit ________07 _ 03* _ 07 _ 14* _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ______ 45
MrSkinner _________ 10 _ 09* _ 06 _ 06* _ 06 __ 07 + 1 ______ 45
Harps ___(-5)_______11 _ 06* _ 11 _ 10* _ 04 __ 06 + 0 __ 48-5=43
mickger844posts ____ 19 _ 13* _ 08 __ 00 _ 02 __ 01 + 0 ______ 43
waterways _________ 10 _ 01* _ 09 _ 05*_ 04 __ 08 + 1 ______ 38
JoePublic __________ 05 _ 11* _ 00 _ 11* _ 05 __ 05 + 0 ______ 37
DOCARCH _________ 06 _ 07* _ 09 _ 03* _ 05 __ 03 + 1 ______ 34
jd ____(-10)________08 _ 08* _ 07 _ 10* _ 06 __ not in __ 39-10=29
_____________________________________________________________

* minimum progression scores for MAX and PRC.
Since jd had both a late penalty and sat out the bonus (probably thinking it had already been settled) I changed his late penalty to 10 from 15 as otherwise it was more like 20-25.

Table reposted with slight differences in scoring from earlier version ... took one point off all IMT scores, then adjusted SUN to fit the higher value of 82% (I had scored from 80% so it made a positive difference to some but not all scores).

Updated annual scoring table and four seasons spring totals to follow.

Congrats to (1) Jpmarn, (2) Lostinashford, and (3) Tae Laidir with Pauldry and sunflower3 close to the third place score also.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring Jan to May 2015


FORECASTER ____________ Jan _ Feb_ Mar _ Apr_ May __ 2015 Total _ best 4/5 ___ spring

Jpmarn __________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 80 ___ 350 ________ 293 ____ 229 (10 pts)

Con Sensus ______________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 56 ___ 325 ________ 269 ____ 184 (3 pts)

Lumi ____________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 56 ___ 321 ________ 265 ____ 181 (2 pts)
Rikand __________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 52 ___ 316 ________ 268 ____ 173 (1 pt)
dacogawa ________________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 56 ___ 306 ________ 258 ____ 196 (6 pts)
Bsal ____________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 55 ___ 305 ________ 255 ____ 173 (1 pt)
M.T. Cranium _____________ 68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 60 ___ 302 ________ 285 ____ 217 (7 pts)
mickger844posts __________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 43 ___ 297 ________ 254 ____ 157
sunflower3 _______________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 64 ___ 297 ________ 253 ____ 167
Schadenfreudia ___________ 61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 56 ___ 297 ________ 244 ____ 169
John mac ________________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 48 ___ 294 ________ 246 ____ 166
jd ______________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 29 ___ 292 ________ 263 ____ 159
DOCARCH ________________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 34 ___ 292 ________ 258 ____ 138
Pauldry __________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 65 ___ 285 ________ 237 ____ 186 (4 pts)
Joe Public ________________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 37 ___ 284 ________ 247 ____ 173 (1 pt)
dasa29 __________________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 55 ___ 283 ________ 238 ____ 167
kindredspirit ______________63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 45 ___ 276 ________ 231 ____ 156
Tae laidir ________________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 66 ___ 273 ________ 240 ____ 180 (1 pt)
Harps ___________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 43 ___ 273 ________ 239 ____ 147
omicron _________________ 41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 47 ___ 272 ________ 232 ____ 154
rameire __________________55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 59 ___ 258 ________ 218 ____ 163
MrSkinner ________________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 45 ___ 255 ________ 255 ____ 184 (3 pts)
lostinashford _____________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 245 ________ 245 ____ 189 (5 pts)
waterways _______________ --- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 38 ___ 224 ________ 224 ____ 154
200motels _______________ 30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 56 ___ 210 ________ 210 ____ 180 (1 pt)
delw ____________________48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- _ --- ___ 109
blue5000 ________________ 45 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 45
BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- _ 31 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 31
__________________________________________________________

In the final column you can compare your scores as they might be trending towards the eventual outcome where it's best ten out of twelve (Boards Award), this is particularly true for those who have missed one month so far.

Spring totals have the four seasons points beside them, several tied for 10th place so quite a few scored. Scoring tended to equalize in the pack this month. One forecaster (Jpmarn) is ahead of Con Sensus in the raw score and two (Jpmarn and MTC) are ahead in the best four of five foreshadowing the main award at the end of the year. Quite a few are within striking distance.

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Award -- combined scores winter and spring

Checked back to February for the winter seasonal scores. Just a reminder, Con Sensus scores as if "he" was a contestant but that score does not drop anyone who falls below that mark. Interesting to note that Con has fallen off from 3rd highest to a tie for 6th highest, so we are making some headway apparently.

FORECASTER __________ winter __ spring ___ TOTAL to date

Rikand _________________ 10 ____ 1 _____ 11
Jpmarn _________________ 0 ____10 _____ 10

Con Sensus ______________ 6 ____ 3 ______ 9

dacogawa _______________ 1 ____ 6 ______ 7
DOCARCH _______________ 7 ____ 0 ______ 7
M.T. Cranium _____________0 ____ 7 ______ 7
jd ______________________6 ____ 0 ______ 6
Harps ___________________5 ____ 0 ______ 5
Lostinashford ____________ 0 ____ 5 _______5
kindredspirit _____________ 4 ____ 0 ______ 4
mickger844posts__________ 4 ____ 0 ______ 4
Pauldry _________________ 0 ____ 4 ______ 4
Bsal ____________________2 ____ 1 ______ 3
MrSkinner _______________ 0 ____ 3 ______ 3
Lumi ___________________ 0 ____ 2 ______ 2
sunflower3 ______________ 1 ____ 0 ______ 1
omicron _________________1 ____ 0 ______ 1
Joe Public _______________ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1
Tae laidir ________________0 ____ 1 ______ 1
200motels _______________0 ____ 1 ______ 1
__________________________________________________

Interesting to note that nobody has scored 2 or more in both seasons, apart from Con.