Bob24's New House

Bob24

Looking for opinions.

I am bidding against someone else for a property - they were original very "enthusiastic" and increasing their bid 5k at a time. I have always been bidding 1k over their latest offer. They have gradually been reducing their increments are now only bidding 500 euros over my latest offer.

Are they about to pull-out or are they just trying to make it last as long as possible to annoy me (which would be working :-)) and try to get me to give up?

Michael D Not Higgins

Bob24 wrote: »

Looking for opinions.

I am bidding against someone else for a property - they were original very "enthusiastic" and increasing their bid 5k at a time. I have always been bidding 1k over their latest offer. They have gradually been reducing their increments are now only bidding 500 euros over my latest offer.

Are they about to pull-out or are they just trying to make it last as long as possible to annoy me (which would be working :-)) and try to get me to give up?

I would guess that they're reaching the top of their budget and stretching their bids as much as possible. Stick to your budget and don't let it get to you.

seamus

Most likely they're coming close to their limit and hoping that you'll go away. They may also be thinking "why am I killing myself going up 5k when yer man is only going up 1k?", but most likely it's the former.

Bob24

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

I would guess that they're reaching the top of their budget and stretching their bids as much as possible. Stick to your budget and don't let it get to you.

seamus wrote: »

Most likely they're coming close to their limit and hoping that you'll go away. They may also be thinking "why am I killing myself going up 5k when yer man is only going up 1k?", but most likely it's the former.

Thanks - thought so as well. Getting pretty close to the max I want to pay for that place but if we are starting to bid 500 euros at a time there could be a few more exchanges! - I'll probably stick with 1k increments.

Btw related to the previous discussion, I was already bidding on the same property back in January/February and gave up as bids went to high for my liking. It then went sale agreed but that fell through and the place was advertised again at the beginning of this month.
Current bid is 15k bellow what it supposingly sold for last time (based on what the EA is saying but not sure I trust him about that).

cherryghost

Bob24 wrote: »

Looking for opinions.

I am bidding against someone else for a property - they were original very "enthusiastic" and increasing their bid 5k at a time. I have always been bidding 1k over their latest offer. They have gradually been reducing their increments are now only bidding 500 euros over my latest offer.

Are they about to pull-out or are they just trying to make it last as long as possible to annoy me (which would be working :-)) and try to get me to give up?

Is this you? Taking the piss:
Property price history
€294,000 €1,000 Apr 29, 2015
€293,000 €1,000 Apr 29, 2015
€292,000 €1,000 Apr 27, 2015
€291,000 €1,000 Apr 24, 2015
€290,000 €9,000 Apr 24, 2015
€281,000 €1,000 Apr 24, 2015
€280,000 €5,000 Apr 23, 2015
€275,000 €5,000 Apr 21, 2015
€270,000 €21,000 Apr 20, 2015
€249,000 First Listed Apr 14, 2015

Michael D Not Higgins

Bob24 wrote: »

Thanks - thought so as well. Getting pretty close to the max I want to pay for that place but if we are starting to bid 500 euros at a time there could be a few more exchanges! - I'll probably stick with 1k increments.

Btw related to the previous discussion, I was already bidding on the same property back in January/February and gave up as bids went to high for my liking. It then went sale agreed but that fell through and the place was advertised again at the beginning of this month.
Current bid is 15k bellow what it supposingly sold for last time (based on what the EA is saying but not sure I trust him about that).

Second bite of the cherry, hope it works out for you.

Bob24

cherryghost wrote: »

Is this you? Taking the piss:
Property price history
€294,000 €1,000 Apr 29, 2015
€293,000 €1,000 Apr 29, 2015
€292,000 €1,000 Apr 27, 2015
€291,000 €1,000 Apr 24, 2015
€290,000 €9,000 Apr 24, 2015
€281,000 €1,000 Apr 24, 2015
€280,000 €5,000 Apr 23, 2015
€275,000 €5,000 Apr 21, 2015
€270,000 €21,000 Apr 20, 2015
€249,000 First Listed Apr 14, 2015

Nope but that's the idea :-D

Note that from the start my offers are above asking price - so definitely not feeling like a time waster!

johnp001

Bob24 wrote: »

Looking for opinions.

I am bidding against someone else for a property - they were original very "enthusiastic" and increasing their bid 5k at a time. I have always been bidding 1k over their latest offer. They have gradually been reducing their increments are now only bidding 500 euros over my latest offer.

Are they about to pull-out or are they just trying to make it last as long as possible to annoy me (which would be working :-)) and try to get me to give up?

I think in general it is in the bidder's own interest to drop out sooner than later if they think they may end up not winning the bidding war.
If you drop out of bidding after being instrumental in raising the selling price then this contributes to an inflated selling price on the next equivalent property that comes up for sale.
So if there are 2 willing bidders for a property A - asking €400k and they both bid until the successful bidder pays 20% above the asking price then the next equivalent property will base its asking price on the previous €480k sale price. The price trajectory is +++ and this affects sentiment.
If there is only 1 willing bidder for property B - asking €400k and the bidder manages to buy the property for 20% below the asking price then a new baseline for prices for equivalent properties has been set at €320k. The price trajectory becomes negative with the opposite effect on sentiment.
This is why I believe that a tipping point of supply will soon be reached in the Dublin market when, in most areas, for most types of housing, buyers will be less keen to bid wildly against each other and more inclined to wait for the next suitable house to come along which will have a cascading effect on prices.
This behaviour will work massively in the buyers' own interest.

Bob24

johnp001 wrote: »

I think in general it is in the bidder's own interest to drop out sooner than later if they think they may end up not winning the bidding war.
If you drop out of bidding after being instrumental in raising the selling price then this contributes to an inflated selling price on the next equivalent property that comes up for sale.
So if there are 2 willing bidders for a property A - asking €400k and they both bid until the successful bidder pays 20% above the asking price then the next equivalent property will base its asking price on the previous €480k sale price. The price trajectory is +++ and this affects sentiment.
If there is only 1 willing bidder for property B - asking €400k and the bidder manages to buy the property for 20% below the asking price then a new baseline for prices for equivalent properties has been set at €320k. The price trajectory becomes negative with the opposite effect on sentiment.
This is why I believe that a tipping point of supply will soon be reached in the Dublin market when, in most areas, for most types of housing, buyers will be less keen to bid wildly against each other and more inclined to wait for the next suitable house to come along which will have a cascading effect on prices.
This behaviour will work massively in the buyers' own interest.

Fully agreed here. But then the reality is that at the moment supply is very limited for the type of property I am looking at. Missing one for 1000 euros wouldn't make sense.

Of course if you increase by 1000 euros 20 times you are now spending an extra 20000 euros and need to keep this in mind :-)

johnp001

Bob24 wrote: »

Fully agreed here. But then the reality is that at the moment supply is very limited for the type of property I am looking at. Missing one for 1000 euros wouldn't make sense.

Of course if you increase by 1000 euros 20 times you are now spending an extra 20000 euros and need to keep this in mind :-)

There will always be exceptions and property that is in high demand. Best of luck with your purchase, my comments are very general and not directly addressing you or your specific bidding situation.
If it was the case that if you went up by 20000 euros you were guaranteed to get your property then it would be one thing. Its the fact that if you go up 20k and fail to win the auction then the next time out the bidding starts 20k higher that I find terrifying!
The reason I anticipate the kind of turnaround in the market I described above is because not only is the stock of properties in Dublin increasing but the rate at which supply is increasing is also increasing and this is a positive feedback loop.
e.g. Daft report figures
Dec 1st 2014: supply up 33% on Dec 1st 2013
Mar 1st 2015: supply up 56% on Mar 1st 2015
if that trend was to continue (and stock has continued rising since Mar 1st) then we could have Jun 1st stock up 75% YoY and a full on bear market/rush to the exits situation.

Bob24

johnp001 wrote: »

There will always be exceptions and property that is in high demand. Best of luck with your purchase, my comments are very general and not directly addressing you or your specific bidding situation.
If it was the case that if you went up by 20000 euros you were guaranteed to get your property then it would be one thing. Its the fact that if you go up 20k and fail to win the auction then the next time out the bidding starts 20k higher that I find terrifying!
The reason I anticipate the kind of turnaround in the market I described above is because not only is the stock of properties in Dublin increasing but the rate at which supply is increasing is also increasing and this is a positive feedback loop.
e.g. Daft report figures
Dec 1st 2014: supply up 33% on Dec 1st 2013
Mar 1st 2015: supply up 56% on Mar 1st 2015
if that trend was to continue (and stock has continued rising since Mar 1st) then we could have Jun 1st stock up 75% YoY and a full on bear market/rush to the exits situation.

Yep agree with everything there.

Out of interest a bit more details about my example:

In that particular case the EA is definitely advertising for a lower price than what they are willing to achieve in order to attract more people (if I could get it for the asking price I would be pretty happy). And when their deal fell through the first time they advertised it again with the same lower asking price.
Property is in the 300-400k bracket - first time it "sold" 40k over asking and it is currently 25k over asking.

But actually as fair as the negotiation process is concerned I do definitly thing it is easier from a buyer perspective when the asking price is higher that what the property will likely go for. You just make you offer. Seller accepts it or not - possibly submit a revised offer, and if they decline just say thank you and good by - moving on to something else.

Bob24

And btw I never thought asking prices mean much (still don't), but MyHome are now saying they are seeing a downwards trend in Dublin.

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

Looking for opinions.

I am bidding against someone else for a property - they were original very "enthusiastic" and increasing their bid 5k at a time. I have always been bidding 1k over their latest offer. They have gradually been reducing their increments are now only bidding 500 euros over my latest offer.

Are they about to pull-out or are they just trying to make it last as long as possible to annoy me (which would be working :-)) and try to get me to give up?

Just though I'd give an update as a couple of you were kind enough to offer advice.

As it happened people here were absolutely right and the other bidder was maxed out. In the end I just overbid them by 500 euros - they are not going any higher and my offer is accepted. Looking good.

The_Conductor

Congrats Bob24- I hope you're happy with your purchase.

The_Conductor

Bob- I've split your house purchase posts into their own thread- it'll be a tidier way of you keeping track of them. If you have further updates- it would be helpful to others if you could give us a dialogue of how your purchase goes- step-by-step.

Thanks!

The_Conductor

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

Bob- I've split your house purchase posts into their own thread- it'll be a tidier way of you keeping track of them. If you have further updates- it would be helpful to others if you could give us a dialogue of how your purchase goes- step-by-step.

Thanks!

The_Conductor

Yep makes sense to spilt it - thanks! Will give some updates indeed :-)