Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015

ninebeanrows

Looks like Joaquin could be dodging the US east coast and racing towards Ireland next week!

Coles

It looks like it'll be a nasty one. The jet stream is forecast to be just right for steering this straight into us.

I know it's still 7 days away but if it stalls and veers northwest just over us (as the GFS suggests) it's going to dump a monstrous amount of rain.

maquiladora

Yes, a long way off in FI, but 06Z GFS does drop ex-Joaquin on our doorstep.

It's still meandering around the Bahamas at the moment and some models still want to take it into North Carolina so it's seriously deep into FI-land to look at where it might be 170 hours from now and what kind of state it's remains will be in by then.

Meteorite58

Looks to be on the way across the Atlantic alright, how much power in it is the question and it's track of course. Early days.

Big flooding expected in the East coast of America even with the Hurricane staying well out to sea.

FWVT

Fair balls to the ECMWF again.

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/02/hurricane-joaquin-battering-the-bahamas/

hatrickpatrick

Does it make me a terrible selfish gobsh!te of some kind if I almost wish it had turned West just so we wouldn't have to deal with it next week?

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Does it make me a terrible selfish gobsh!te of some kind if I almost wish it had turned West just so we wouldn't have to deal with it next week?

At worst, all we'll have to deal with it is a turned over wheelie bin and maybe losing ESB for a couple of hours. If it had turned West and hit the mid-atlantic states as a Cat 3 hurricane it would have probably been a billion dollar disaster with numerous shore-facing homes and businesses wiped out and no doubt several lives lost.

hatrickpatrick

maquiladora wrote: »

At worst, all we'll have to deal with it is a turned over wheelie bin and maybe losing ESB for a couple of hours. If it had turned West and hit the mid-atlantic states as a Cat 3 hurricane it would have probably been a billion dollar disaster with numerous shore-facing homes and businesses wiped out and no doubt several lives lost.

It's my garden gate I'm worried about, with hinges as rusty as ours even a small gust of wind is a menace. :mad:

Tindie

Just heard about Jo (too early to type the full name of the hurricane lol) ,

At the moments will it reach the Midlands?

I know it could change before it get here!

My luck it end up passing us! Lol

I know there four ways it can go , after seeing last night weather forecast for the week a head

Meteorite58

To me it looks like from the latest runs that the remnants of Joaquin could and probably will fill as it approaches our shores and peter out or become absorbed by areas of low pressure coming down from Greenland which in turn look to be very wintry but staying off the the North West coast.

irishgeo

Is this likely to hit us, got a family wedding Friday , hate for it to be lashing rain and blowing a gale.

FWVT

Here's my analysis of it

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/03/hurricane-joaquin-leaving-bahamas-where-to-next-2/

irishgeo

FWVT wrote: »

Here's my analysis of it

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/03/hurricane-joaquin-leaving-bahamas-where-to-next-2/

Looks like Saturday before it hits so hopefully we get the calm before the storm window.

Hooter23

It has strengthen to just under a catergory 5 :eek:

While powerful Hurricane Joaquin is tracking away from the coast, indirect impacts will still threaten lives and property in parts of the eastern United States into Monday.

Joaquin's extended assault on the Bahamas has altered the storm track. Joaquin is now on a northeastward track that will take the powerful hurricane just west of Bermuda as the weekend comes to a close.

Despite slightly weakening later Friday, Joaquin rapidly strengthened to start the weekend. The hurricane now has maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, which is just under Category 5 status.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-joaquin-east-coast-track-heavy-rain-deluge-flash-flooding-atlantic/52672710

maquiladora

Looking at the latest models, ex-Joaquin will either go north or south of us or get stalled by high pressure until it weakens into a flabby low.
Unless the models change, I don't see any real impact here apart from some rain bands maybe.

corsav6

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking at the latest models, ex-Joaquin will either go north or south of us or get stalled by high pressure until it weakens into a flabby low.
Unless the models change, I don't see any real impact here apart from some rain bands maybe.

That's what I like to read, I'm not ready for any storms yet.

syklops

corsav6 wrote: »

That's what I like to read, I'm not ready for any storms yet.

I've been waiting for a good one for a while now. Hopefully soon.

Wanderer78

corsav6 wrote: »

That's what I like to read, I'm not ready for any storms yet.

a risky thing to be saying on this forum!

hatrickpatrick

This thing is forecast to still have tropical storm force winds of 50mph by the time it reacher our shores. :eek:

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This thing is forecast to still have tropical storm force winds of 50mph by the time it reacher our shores. :eek:

The latest ECM, which has handled this storm the best, currently takes it well to our south where it fizzles out. Still some disagreement with the models, but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic here either way.

Iancar29

GFS 06 z has it making landfall here but nothing out of the ordinary IMO



GEM 00z very similar , again not that strong


UKMO , stronger but goes to the north of us as it comes up against the high pressure to our east.


ECM , which has been handling this storm very well since the start doesn't make much of it at all and pushes it well south of us.

maquiladora

ECM ensembles, about 8 members track it close to or over Ireland on day 5 with a fairly broad spread north and south. Also this doesn't take into account how deep the low would be, it's not likely to be strong by that stage, but it could produce some heavy rain if it tracks close.

The bottom cluster is where the 0Z operational run took it.

Iancar29

Be interesting to see the 12z s roll out...

Oneiric 3

BBC weather chart looks interesting, but I doubt it will be as interesting come the time.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

BBC weather chart looks interesting, but I doubt it will be as interesting come the time.

Certainly looks less interesting on the latest UKMO GM....

Iancar29

Big shift towards the ECM solution there!!

Meteorite58

Met Eireann's take on it.....


There is a good deal of uncertainty associated with the outlook period of this weeks forecast. Ex-hurricane Joaquin, currently in mid-Atlantic, will make its way eastwards towards Europe over the course of the next few days. The exact position of the centre of the storm later in the week will determine the weather over Ireland at the weekend.

Current indications suggest Friday will be mainly dry for much of the country, although cloud with rain and drizzle in parts of the west and southwest are possible. Temperatures on Friday will be between 13 and 15 degrees and winds are expected to be light to moderate southeasterly, possibly increasing fresh Friday night if the centre of the storm approaches.

There is currently too much uncertainty associated with the track of the storm to make definitive statements regarding the weekend but the possibility of a windy episode on Saturday and in to Sunday can not be ruled out at this point.

Storm 10

Never saw ME playing the weather forecast so cautious, not a mention about weather for Friday or the weekend forecast after the news

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Big shift towards the ECM solution there!!

That's been the story with this storm since it was in the Bahamas. Pretty certain now this won't have any impact on us at all.

irishgeo

Any chance of it getting here Friday? I am rather hoping for a no.