Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015

RobertKK

It should be said the UK met were being very cautious too and were saying on BBC news that it could go either north or south due to the divided jet stream.

Today Met Eireann talking about a pleasant weekend and mild, so guess it goes north.

maquiladora

RobertKK wrote: »

It should be said the UK met were being very cautious too and were saying on BBC news that it could go either north or south due to the divided jet stream.

Today Met Eireann talking about a pleasant weekend and mild, so guess it goes north.

South.

Totofan99

Iancar29 wrote: »

No she showed the to possible outcomes , not two separate lows. She notes that the forecast is still changing .


We'll have a full model run through when the 6z gfs rolls out ...

That's not what I saw. She definitely had it splitting into two lows. I've never seen Met Éireann showing different outcomes on their forecasts.

Storm 10

Totofan99 wrote: »

That's not what I saw. She definitely had it splitting into two lows. I've never seen Met Éireann showing different outcomes on their forecasts.

Agree with you on that she showed two clearly marked lows as the ex hurricane split, one moving North and one South, I have just watched it back on RTE Player, link below, the adds are a killer though.


http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/nine-news-30003250/10476269/

Vinculus

I live on the north west coast of Spain and it appears it could be coming our way. This is worrying. We got battered in the storms of 2013/14, It would be a nightmare to have to go through that again.

maquiladora

Vinculus wrote: »

I live on the north west coast of Spain and it appears it could be coming our way. This is worrying. We got battered in the storms of 2013/14, It would be a nightmare to have to go through that again.

Nothing to worry about. It will just be a weak area of low pressure by then. Rain and a breeze.

B17G

Looks like Hurricane Patricia will come ashore on Mexico's western coast sometime on Friday evening. May have sustained winds of 125 mph at this point.

B17G

Big upgrade in expected wind speeds according to the latest discussion. Winds reaching 155 mph tomorrow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/222034.shtml?

Alexis Sanchez

Texas has got a lot of drought relief this year because of El Niño. They reckon this hurricane will contribute to the flood threat: http://www.wunderground.com/news/southern-plains-flood-threat-texas-6-things-to-know

maquiladora

B17G wrote: »

Big upgrade in expected wind speeds according to the latest discussion. Winds reaching 155 mph tomorrow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/222034.shtml?

GFDL has it down at 934mb and just below Cat 5 intensity at the moment of landfall. Hope everyone on the coast in that area gets out.

B17G

Olaf on the left, moving north, east of the Hawaiian island chain. Currently winds are 110mph. Patricia winding itself up over on the right.

maquiladora

Holy mother! :eek::eek::eek:

12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 16.5°N 105.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 892 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

maquiladora

Absolutely incredible. Astonishing.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 6:21Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015
Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 6:01:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°28'N 105°25'W (16.4667N 105.4167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,134m (7,001ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 182kts (~ 209.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 180kts (From the SW at ~ 207.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 890mb (26.28 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,077m (10,095ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,913m (9,557ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Kalyke

I think Patricia deserves a thread of her own!!!!:eek::eek:

maquiladora

Latest pressure : 880mb. A new record for the Western hemisphere.

maquiladora

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 17.0°N 105.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph

A monster...stronger than anything ever recorded in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately recon had to depart but the pressure was still falling and windspeed increasing on every pass before the mission had to end. So it's very likely that pressure is now actually lower than 880. It may be close to Typhoon Tip's all time record of 870 but we'll never know as the next recon flight won't be there until 6pm and it will surely have passed peak intensity by then.
The sustained winds of 200 mph is a new world record and it's likely that it's even higher than that now but again no recon at this time so it stays at 200.

Wanderer78

maquiladora wrote: »

A monster...

must be pretty damn scary to fly through these things

maquiladora

Wanderer78 wrote: »

must be pretty damn scary to fly through these things

Hope they get a bonus. They got a special mention in the last forecast discussion.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

WheatenBriar

BBC forecasters expect max sustained at 225mph on landfall, thats MPH not kph :eek:

Wanderer78

WheatenBriar wrote: »

BBC forecasters expect max sustained at 225mph on landfall, thats MPH not kph :eek:

holy mother of divine god. get out of the way of this one

bnt

The BBC reports that preparations are underway, with states of emergency declared in three states. There are 400,000 people in the affected regions, and it's possible that Puerto Vallarta will take a direct hit.

I wouldn't want to be a ship at sea, neither. Using MarineTraffic I can see three large ships just south-west of Puerto Vallarta. All heading in the right direction, NW away from the worst, but bulk carrier or container ships aren't exactly nimble.

B17G

Thermal IR image from a couple of hours ago. Not surprisingly it's got a very distinct eye due to the storms intense nature.

ronnie3585

Will be keeping an eye on the metars from Manzanillo (MMZO) and Puerto Vallarta (MMPR). Looks like it's going to be an absolute beast by landfall. God help anyone in its path.

Wanderer78

any web cams folks from the expecting areas of patricia?

maquiladora

Met Eireann issues a Red Warning when sustained winds are over 80 kmh.
Patricia has sustained winds in excess of 325 kmh.

V_Moth

Wanderer78 wrote: »

any web cams folks from the expecting areas of patricia?

Youtube Livestream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q

g0g

Expected track of this is definitely North isn't it? (my mother is in Costa Rica)

maquiladora

V_Moth wrote: »

Youtube Livestream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q

It's likely to make landfall further south and east of that location. They may not see anything worse than tropical storm force conditions there. There windfield where the very intense winds are is actually quite small.

ronnie3585

V_Moth wrote: »

Youtube Livestream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q

Scary to see people still milling around there. If the hurricane makes landfall as predicted it's unlikely the webcam let alone the hotel pictured will be left standing.

Rikand

g0g wrote: »

Expected track of this is definitely North isn't it? (my mother is in Costa Rica)

Definitely North

Meteorite58

Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 231144
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...HEADING FOR POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...17.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher
gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY

---

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

maquiladora

This webcam is closer to where it might make landfall.

http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html

lolie

WheatenBriar wrote: »

BBC forecasters expect max sustained at 225mph on landfall, thats MPH not kph :eek:

Scary.
What would the strongest gusts of wind be from that?

SEPT 23 1989

maquiladora wrote: »

This webcam is closer to where it might make landfall.

http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html

that camera wont last 2 minutes when that arrives

Rikand

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

that camera wont last 2 minutes when that arrives

Hard to believe there'll be a hurricane there in a few hours. not even a breath of wind moving the leaves on the trees

Al_Coholic

thankfully im just south east of where the hurricane will be hitting.
i really hope everybody has got out of the areas that will be effected.

edit...there are volcanoes in the hurricanes path,it could cause a lot of problems regarding the transfer of the volcanic dust.

Kalyke

What is the expected time of landfall?

maquiladora

Kalyke wrote: »

What is the expected time of landfall?

Around midnight our time, maybe a bit earlier or later.

130Kph

From NOAA’s 1000 AM CDT forecast discussion:

3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very
small area near the center - about 15 miles across.

It’s fascinating that the most dangerous winds are in such a relatively small width! There’s a fair chance this 15 mile zone may not hit any coastal towns or cities.

maquiladora

130Kph wrote: »

From NOAA’s 1000 AM CDT forecast discussion:



It’s fascinating that the most dangerous winds are in such a relatively small width! There’s a fair chance this 15 mile zone may not hit any coastal towns or cities.

Yep that's true, but beyond those 15 miles you still have Cat 4 and Cat 3 winds which are very damaging also. But hopefully the very worst misses the most populated parts. Flash flooding, storm surge and landfalls also a big concern.

Latest :

1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 18.2°N 105.3°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 879 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph

B17G

If sustained winds are 200mph at landfall basically anything within that 15 mile width will be experiencing tornadic like conditions.

Latest visible image loop. You can see the eye getting smaller. Seems to be taking a turn to be left in the last frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/html5-vis-short.html

Meteorite58

NHC

'Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts'.

'Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km)'.

:eek:

Autonomous Cowherd

This is all kind of crazy...like watching impending catastrophe in slow motion. We have no idea what the headlines will be like in the morning telling us what has happened in Mexico.:(

Al_Coholic

live video from Ixtapa

207mph winds and pressure is maintaining at 878 millibars..

This is insane

FortySeven

Can't imagine a 39' wave! Been watching it here.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-75...

Coles

Ironically it looks like one of the towns likely to feel the full force of this hurricane is called San Patricio.

ronnie3585

There's people still swimming at the beach there!

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=5oCpWyCYP_M&streams=1

Al_Coholic

ronnie3585 wrote: »

There's people still swimming at the beach there!

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=5oCpWyCYP_M&streams=1

dont think thats a live stream
it says its 4hours long

Al_Coholic

i have a real bad feeling that many people will lose their lives,the infrastructure is just not in place and for people living in the mountain regions the rain is going to be another big reason for damage and loss of life.