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Derby 2015

2

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Jack Hobbs the Dante second shouldn't be written off, he seemed to be staying on well, although Gosden doesn't want it too firm for him and he might not run.

    With a DI 1.18 he should stay in theory. His Dam Swain's Gold DI 1.40 produced a few runners.

    Fleetwoodmaxi DI 2.20 ( by Afleet Alex ) was a 7f handicapper who only once raced at 8f which was as far as he went in trip.

    Mrs Greeley DI 3.73 ( BY Mr Greeley ) was a 6, 7 and 8f handicapper.

    Niceofyoutotellme DI 0.78 ( by Hernando ) is a decent enough 10f horse who only ever ran once at 12f and then won at 11f on the all weather before being brought back to 8, 9 and 10f for his last 7 starts.

    Jack Hobbs Dam's dam Golden Pond ( by Don't Forget Me ) DI 1.00 was a 6, 7 and 8f handicapper who managed a listed win at a mile..


    I really like this horse Jack Hobbs but I'd be worried enough about him staying at Epsom.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Elm Park a moderate enough 3rd in the Dante but may have blown up a bit on his first run of the season.

    With a DI of 1.18 he should stay in theory and he won the Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo which is a great Trial for this race. The problem with that form is that the Racing Post Trophy winners who went on to win the Derby won their Trials for the Derby well. Motivator and Authorized won the Dante before winning at Epsom, High Chaparral won the Derrinstown and were by the cream of 12f GP producing stallions .


    Elm park is by Phoenix Reach a globe trotting GP 1 12f winning horse who wasn't quite top class but good enough to run in top GP1s. He finished 3rd in the Leger behind Brian Boru and was trained by Andrew Balding so the Balding's know his stock.

    Despite Phoenix Reach's DI of 3.00 he is well capable of siring stayers and is himself out of a half sister to the Arc winner Carrol House.

    Elm Park's Dam Lady Brora DI 0.9 ( by Dashing Blade ) was a moderate 8-10f handicapper also trained by Andrew Balding. She produced Jonny Rae DI 0.79 ( by Shirocco ) who had 2 starts as a 3yo over 10f and 12f without doing much. She has an other unraced 2yo by Shirocco. Can't see why they're so keen to add so much stamina to the line?

    Although looking at Lady Brora's dam Tweed Mill ( by Selkirk ) DI 1.80 a 7-8f handicapper there would appear to be a need for an injection of classic stamina. Elm Park is all Balding through the pedigree and that's not exactly screaming Derby winner.



    On his 2yo form he's got a chance, on breeding he's not classy enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭Gregk961


    Great write ups as always Trifix, couldn't attempt to get the breeding angles accross any better.

    Hans Holbein was the one I was interested in but as you mentioned he may not have the speed. Terrible cliché but if you know they will stay, the horse is probably too slow.

    Leaning towards Zawraq at the moment, form wise there isnt a lot to go on but the visual impression was very promising. A lot of unknowns to be having any sort of decent bet but id take a small risk if the price is right on the day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    A big run from O'Brien's Highland Reel today in what looks like it was a high quality French Derby.

    Makes me wonder if the O'Brien horses could show huge improvement in the Epsom Derby. I reckon Coolmore are desperate not to let Galileo's sires championship slip to Dubawi and will be very anxious to add some big prize money figures to the Galileo column after Dubawi took the Jockey Club with New Bay today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Epicuris DI = 2.20 is a 10f winning juvenile in the mud in the GP1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud so even though he should be doubted on DI it would probably be pointless to doubt his staying power. Having said that his dam Argumentative was a 7 and 8f runner at 4 so that's not promising and her dam was a miler. His sire Rail Link the Arc winner with a DI himself of 2.33 is an oddity and not that great of a sire but he does produce decent stayers.

    Epicuris doesn't need the mud to make him a decent horse, his 8f debut maiden win over Mister Dancer and Karaktar was achieved comfortably on good ground. Karaktar was a big fancy for the French Derby today after a few big early season wins in the mud but flopped today on the good to soft ground in the French Derby. Karaktar had the measure of many Epsom horses via his drubbing of Medrano by 7l in a listed race in the mud. Medrano has close placed form with Storm The Stars ( beaten by 2l ) and Hans Holbein ( beaten by 2 1/4l ). The very soft ground in France is a valid excuse for Medrano, but it'd get you thinking.

    Epicuris failed behind Silverware in the mud by 4l in his Derby trial with that yardstick horse Medrano 2 1/2l further behind and a nk behind was Pinment Rouge who finished a 3l 4th in today's French Derby on better ground.

    He's a bit of a head case, he's been rerouted to Epsom because the French wouldn't allow anyone other than the stalls handlers to load him.

    Not a very straight forward horse at all nor is there much chance of getting your head around what to expect from him, the trainer says he's well balanced and will be suited by Epsom. At 20/1 he makes a decent outsider, well kinda.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Success Days DI 1.86, what a cracking horse he's been so far winning the 10f Ballysax and Derrinstown stud Derby Trials at will in the mud. Being by the now deceased Jeremy the 7f Jersey Stakes winner and Betfred mile winner you'd be forgiven for thinking he wouldn't stay 12f in a horsebox.

    Jeremy is from the family of super 12f sire Deep Impact, Jeremy's own dam Glint In Her Eye DI 1.00 a half sister to Deep Impact ran at 13f and never at less than 10f, her own dam having been placed 2nd in the Epsom Oaks. On to Success Days dam Malaica DI 1.91 and here's where the problems start, his dam was a decent sprinter who also ran at up to 8 1/2f but mainly 6-7f. She has no progeny younger than Success days, her dam Carmel produced Carmelixia a 6-7f runner by Linamix a decent enough source of stamina. Chambois an 8f winner by Whipper a sprinter/miler sire. Waterwild a 6-7 1/2f type by staying sire Country Reel.

    I'm afraid there's nothing on the Dam's side to give any hope of not needing the horsebox or of the dream coming true, although Malaicia sire Roi Gironde is by Sadler's Wells full brother Fairy King but that really is clutching at straws. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Gleneagles DI 1.20 should stay on DI but there are serious question marks about his actually staying 12f. He's not even a guaranteed runner but Coolmore appear to be getting desperate and he's a superstar who could save their Derby bid.

    No bother on Galileo's side of Gleneagle's pedigree, but Gleneagles is out of a full sister to Giants Causeway who himself stayed 10f well against really top class 10f horses. There are remarkable similarities between Gleneagles and Giant's Causeway, both not overextending themselves while racking up multiple GP1 wins. Gleneagles has even managed to win the Guineas double which Giant's Causeway could only come 2nd in.

    If Giant's Causeway could stay so well relatively given his DI 2.33 then there's plenty of hope that the addition of Galileo's staying power to his full sister will have produced a horse that's capable of getting 12f.

    Gleneagles dam You'resothrilling stayed on well in a very high class GP 1 Matron stakes over a mile on yielding ground and stayed on at one pace when beaten 6l in the 10f Prix De L'Opera on Good to Soft ground.

    That's encouraging enough to think Gleneagles will stay, but his full sister Marvellous the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner on Soft Ground didn't do much on good and good to firm ground in the Epsom and Irish Oaks.

    Marvellous was quirky enough and a surprise winner of the Irish Guineas on soft ground, given her lack of consistency and her lack of sparkle in either oaks on better ground you couldn't really say whether it was the 12f distance or her ability on firmish ground that was the problem.

    You'resothrilling's dam Mariah storm produced a half sister to YST and Giant's Causeway by Galileo called Hanky Panky who won at a mile and despite running poorly once at 6f at 3 she still stayed on well over 9 and 9 1/2f in better company.

    There's enough there to say he'll stay if he's good enough, particularly seeing as the rest of the expected serious competition have more pedigree problems than he has.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 449 ✭✭Pinesky


    Great posting as usual Tryfix . I'm addled now, was hoping for the fairy-tale result with Success Days but he seems a one off in his extended family . Bad weather over the next few days would sort a lot out.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,019 ✭✭✭Itziger


    The thing about Gleneagles is he just doesn't look like a 12 furlong horse. He looks like a miler who might get 10.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Itziger wrote: »
    The thing about Gleneagles is he just doesn't look like a 12 furlong horse. He looks like a miler who might get 10.
    That's true although 10f should be no bother to him at all on pedigree, I still wouldn't mind taking a risk on him getting 12f at his current price.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Pinesky wrote: »
    Great posting as usual Tryfix . I'm addled now, was hoping for the fairy-tale result with Success Days but he seems a one off in his extended family . Bad weather over the next few days would sort a lot out.
    It'd definitely be a huge help, stranger things have happened although it would be shocking in the extreme. I wouldn't want to put you off having a bet on him in case he's a freak because he's already outrun his pedigree and you'd be sick as a parrot if he did it and you didn't have a small bet on him.

    The thing about the Derby is that the odds are usually the best guide and all the pedigree analysis in the world won't trump the market as a guide.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix





    Today's Prix Du Jockey Club, the winner New Bay has some engine.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Giovanni Canaletto DI 1.05 has the perfect Derby pedigree, being a repeat of his Derby winning full brother Ruler Of The World.


    Can lightning strike twice? Well it came close with half brothers Galileo and Sea The Stars both winning the Derby, but both of those horses had the form in the book. On the other hand Giovanni Canaletto's half brother Duke Of Marmalade was a top top horse as well, so the chances of him emulating his GP1 winning brother and half brother by taking a GP 1 in some form are not to be dismissed lightly. In his favour he was O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy horse before missing the race because of heavy going? and was O'Brien's Chester Vase horse before scoping dirty and missing the race which his substitute Hans Holbein won. That would imply that he was likely to be up to winning the Chester Vase just like his brother did prior to Epsom.

    On his bare form he's not good enough, although that was a decent race he ran in the last day. He now stands at 108 OR and in fairness could easily be rated a little higher for his performance in defeat the last day with the 107 rated Prince Gagarin 1 1/2l behind and that was over an inadequate 10f trip after coming back from being off colour.

    Ruler Of The World went to Epsom with an OR of 109.

    Realistically he's not likely to hit the 120 OR needed to win a moderate Derby at Epsom, but it wouldn't be hard to see him pick up to 115 with the fitness and distance boost he'd have at Epsom compared to the last day at the Curragh.

    If he runs he has a solid chance of making the frame.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Kilimanjaro DI 0.71 is a stayer judging by his Lingfield Derby Trial win and by his apparently stout pedigree. That Lingfield Derby Trial win was a weird race where Christophermarlowe's bubble bust and Kilimanjaro didn't get going until late. Can't really take anything from that other than the rest of the collateral form is moderate. Thought Ryan Moore looked happy enough with the horse afterwards, but that was probably because he'd just taken a big scalp.

    His Dam Middle Persia was a 7-8f horse even though she was by staying influence Dalakhani out of the sharp Danehill mare Massara who was a Group class sprinter and who also produced the extremely frustrating Mars by Galileo who managed to finish a 3 1/2l 6th in the Epsom Derby followed by a 2 3/4l length 3rd to Dawn Approach and Toronado in the St James Palace stakes followed again by a 4l 4th to Al Kazeem in the Eclipse. Mars has a full brother called Toscanelli who sticks to 7f and a full sister called Wonderfully who was a group class miler.

    That shows there's a potential engine in Kilimanjaro. Massara's dam was the cracking Henry Cecil filly Rafha who produced the top sire Invincible Spirit and Kodiac. High Chaparral looks like a weird choice for such a potential stallion producing family and he's not a huge stamina influence either so Kilimanjaro must be picking up the staying side from the introduction of Dalakhani into the line.

    May not be the out and out stayer that he looks to be, but where he fits into the Derby picture is hard to figure.

    With that DI 0.71 he could sneak into a place at a big price because he hasn't looked like the type to burn himself out pacemaking for the others.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Storm The Stars DI 1.11 bred to get the trip, and a very admirable type from a Sadler's Wells mare from the Giant's Causeway, Gleneagles family line. So well bred that his dam was sold for $2.1 million with him in utero.

    Not that sure he's running, and his form isn't good enough but he's one of those horses that makes headlines and grabs people's attention. He could stay on for a place as he's even more stoutly bred than he appears to be.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    My guess at the finishing order

    1) Jack Hobbs
    A spectacular win by 12l in a messy 10f handicap put him in the Derby picture. He ran well in 2nd in the Dante, and looked good on the Derby course at Breakfast With The Stars.
    Will he stay? Probably, although his sire Halling has afaik produced only four Group 1 winners (2 in France; 2 in Italy). Halling offspring winners 2 x Gr1; 20 x Gr2; 24 x Gr3. Two of the Halling offspring Group winners won at 7f, the rest at longer distances.

    2) Storm The Stars
    His sire is Sea The Stars, damsire Sadler’s Wells. His dam, Love Me True was sold in foal with Storm The Stars for $2.1 million. A court case to recover the $2.1 million was undecided by jury.
    Two wins, three seconds from six starts. He should get the Epsom Derby 12f on pedigree and racing history. Has run on five tracks so is versatile, but may not be quick enough as his rating is some way below Derby winners.
    Beaten a head by Derby favourite Golden Horn in a 8.5f maiden last October, 7l clear of the 3rd.

    3) Hans Holbein
    He is the opposite of Golden Horn on staying ability. His full sibling Sans Frontieres got 12f, and won the 14f Irish St Leger “comfortably”. Both Hans Holbein’s sire Galileo and damsire Shirley Heights won the Epsom Derby.
    A late foal, May 21st, he has already won the 12f 66y Chester Vase on soft.
    With some doubtful stayers at the head of the betting he should be staying on.

    4) Kilimanjaro
    A late foal. Won listed 11f 106y Lingfield Derby trial last run. Overall form is not strong.
    Sire High Chaparral won the Epsom Derby. Damsire won the 12f French Derby and 12f Arc. His pedigree and the Lingfield race win say he will stay.

    5) Elm Park
    Good form at 7f and 8f as a 2yo. Beaten 6l over 10.4f in the Dante.
    His sire Phoenix Reach won a 12f maiden, was 3rd in the St Leger, also winning over 12f mostly abroad. His dam, Lady Brora was rated 76, about the same as her five siblings.
    Elm Park was a 23rd January foal and may have had a maturity advantage as a 2yo.

    6) Epicuris
    Four runs 1112. He won a 2yo 10f Group 1. Most form on soft/heavy.
    Sire Rail Link won four times over 12f. Dam twice placed over 8f listed.
    Top trainer must be respected. Epicuris is hard to assess.

    7) Golden Horn
    Unbeaten and had an impressive win in the Dante. He looks like the ideal Derby type: medium size, settles well, with a change of gears.
    My guess is he is a non-stayer over the Epsom 12f. The Dante is over 1m2f88y, only 362 yards short of the Derby distance. But that ignores the 140 foot Epsom hill. Every pedigree calc of mine says 12f is too far.

    8) Best Of Times
    He might not stay. Won a 10f listed, but 2nd to Storm The Stars over 11f latest “not quicken, always held”. Dam’s dam produced St Leger winner Nedawi. This is more speedily bred.

    9) Giovanni Canaletto
    Maiden winner. Only three runs.
    Full sibling of Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World so pedigree suits race.
    Ruler Of The World had better form coming into the Derby.

    10) Zawraq
    He has won two races, 7f and 8f. He has entries in 8f, 10f, 12f Group races.
    The form of his win in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown was boosted when the 2nd, Endless Drama , finished 2nd in his next two starts, the latest in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Interesting is the D K Weld horse Tombelaine beat Endless Drama, and then ran 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas. D K Weld trains Tombelaine.
    I have doubts about Zawraq staying the Epsom 12f. His sire Shamardal was best at 8f, but his dam Sundus ran only once and won (10f). He has a mix close up in his pedigree: Shamardal 8f;10f, Giant’s Causeway 8f;10f, Machiavellian 7f, Sadler’s Wells 10f, Mr Prospector 6f, Height Of fashion 12f (filly).

    11) Rocky Rider
    He has a very strong staying pedigree, sire 12f Epsom Derby winner Galileo, damsire French Derby 12f winner Darshaan. His dam stayed 10f at a lower level.
    His form is eclipsed by others in the race.

    12) Success Days
    This £75k supplemented horse has four wins from six starts, incl the Ballysax (Galileo; High Chaparral; Yeats; Fame And Glory) and Derrinstown Derby Trial (Sinndar; Galileo; High Chaparral; Alamshar; Years; Dylan Thomas; Fame And Glory; Battle Of Marengo).
    Why do I not rate him higher? His sire is Jeremy, a miler, and damsire Roi Gironde, a 7f horse. Malaica, the dam of Success Days, had three wins, 5f, 5.5f, 6f.
    Someone might say Jeremy sired Our Conor, who won over 16.5f. That was hurdles.
    All my pedigree tests say Success Days is not going to get 12f.
    All Success Day’s runs were on ground softer than good, with his two recent wins against two runners and three runners, both races on heavy.

    13) Moheet
    Moheet could get 12f. His pedigree gives hope. The dam’s dam Ingozi produced good horses: Kotsi; Miss Keller; Sir George Turner; Tissifer.
    Moheet has run three times, all at 8f. He won his first race by 7l. His last two runs were in a Group 3, and the 2000 Guineas.
    Moheet against Zawraq? This one has raced at a higher level. Zawraq has the “unbeaten” tag.
    He hasn’t much on the scoreboard but he might surprise.

    14) Rogue Runner
    He has a staying pedigree. Only two runs. He is impossible to assess, and nothing on which to pin a recommendation.

    15) Carbon Dating
    His form is poor. His sire, The Crabon Unit, has few runners, only two rated above 100. His dam, Glen Kate, has produced three rated around 100, but they were best around a mile.

    Bets: Storm The Stars carries my win money at 55, with another bet on Jack Hobbs at 15.5, and small bets on Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro. I have place laid Golden Horn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12 Coachonions


    I think with the race not far away that im leaning with Zawraq to perform a training masterclass for Dermot Weld.
    Epsom will suit this horse and its looking like an Irish Winner.
    Dont be surprised to see O Briens Hans Holbein running a close race
    Would love to see Success Days win but a place could be on the cards if the rain comes.
    Best of the English will probably be Elm Park.


  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭shamdrog63


    I agree with Tryfix above when he remarked that Moore seemed very happy with Kilimanjaro after his win.He,s notoriously hard to get a reaction from and he seemed impressed by the horse.It took a while for the penny to drop but he,s got stamina and it will be interesting to see which 1 of the Coolmore contingent Moore rides.If he,s put up on Kilimanjaro the price will halve so I,m having an e/way bet and hope to see him cut down the doubtful stayers late on, whoever rides.


  • Registered Users Posts: 38 MYOPIA


    Epicuris is being overlooked. He was very impressive as a 2 year old and Criquette Head has always spoken highly of the son of Rail Link. First time out this season in heavy ground he got tired and finished second to Silverware [ran decent in Prix du Jockey Club Sunday] but then Epicuris failed to enter the stalls for Prix Greffhule. So he comes to Epsom with his own professional horse-whisperer type stalls handler [ not permitted in France ] Doubtful to be 25/1 on day.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,775 ✭✭✭✭kfallon


    I think with the race not far away that im leaning with Zawraq to perform a training masterclass for Dermot Weld.
    Epsom will suit this horse and its looking like an Irish Winner.

    Injury scare for Zawraq this morn, it's on Sporting Life website!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Kilimanjaro for me at the prices. He got an easy ride off Ryan Moore in the Derby trial at Lingfield last time out, hands and heels until the last 100 yards when he was showed the whip once to assert.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    My 1, 2, 3 are 1 Golden Horn ( the Dante form looks rock solid and Gosden is an Ace trainer ), 2 Zawraq if he runs ( the form of his trial win has been franked and he himself looked like he's not a miler that day ), 3 Giovanni Canaletto ( has much better form than he appears to have, I'm disgusted at his now skimpy price ). If Zawraq doesn't run I'd bunk up Hans Holbein to 3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 42 Mr Ed2011


    AIDAN O'BRIEN has confirmed that Ryan Moore will ride Derby gamble Giovanni Canaletto in Saturday's Investec-sponsored Epsom Classic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    Mr Ed2011 wrote: »
    AIDAN O'BRIEN has confirmed that Ryan Moore will ride Derby gamble Giovanni Canaletto in Saturday's Investec-sponsored Epsom Classic.

    I was wondering what the big price change was about over the past couple of days. 16/1 on Monday to best-price 8/1 now. Zawraq drifting after his lameness scare - 15/2 best price now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    Zawraq is out, really hard to get excited about this years Derby. Hard to look past Golden Horn, I really like Jack Hobbs but think he's still a bit inexperienced and babyish. Golden Horn looks better at this stage of his career.

    Wouldn't touch any of O'Briens, none have shown anything good enough to win a Derby. I think the top 3 will be the top 3 from the Dante although Storm The Stars could run a big race.


  • Registered Users Posts: 42 Mr Ed2011


    Coral Offer, Get 5/1 on Golden Horn to Finish in the First Three in the Derby!
    This is for new accounts only, £10 bet only and £20 in free bets if your bet loses


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    It looks from the jockey bookings that Hans Holbein is going to be the Balldoyle pacemaker under Heffernan. I'd reckon that the dynamic of this race will be Hans Holbein's chances ( O'Brien already saying he may be beter over further with cut on the ground ) being sacrificed to make a strong pace with Kilimanjaro then being sent on near the end to stretch Golden Horn's stamina with Giovanni Canaletto trying to take the race in the last two furlongs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭King_of_Kingz


    Pity if that is the case with Hans Holbein but you could very well be right, tactics are going to be a massive factor in how the race is won and lost!

    Jack Hobbs is the one I think I'll side with because I think the extra 2f will see him reverse placings with Golden Horn, who's real target all along has been the Dewhurst(spelling). He may be babyish but the fact Frankie has been raving all week about he really fears him suggests that he would prefer to have kept his ride on him for this. Also the fact Buick has ridden Golden Horn means that he will know how the horse races which is a bonus.

    https://sportshangout.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/epsom-derby-2015-preview

    There's a more comprehensive run down if anyone wants or needs one!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,681 ✭✭✭ziggy


    This post has been deleted.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    ziggy wrote: »
    Dewhurst?? I seriously doubt golden horns target is a 7f two-year-old race

    Surely meant the Eclipse?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 357 ✭✭jacko1


    Johner wrote: »
    Zawraq is out, really hard to get excited about this years Derby. Hard to look past Golden Horn, I really like Jack Hobbs but think he's still a bit inexperienced and babyish. Golden Horn looks better at this stage of his career.

    Wouldn't touch any of O'Briens, none have shown anything good enough to win a Derby. I think the top 3 will be the top 3 from the Dante although Storm The Stars could run a big race.

    Two of them have won recognised derby trials at Chester & Lingfield and the third is the stable choice who has huge improvement in him given that he has only won three times.

    Given his maiden performance at Leopardstown, the fact that he will come on enormously from the Galinule, that he is the stable choice and that the field is poor, Giovanni Caneletto is nailed on to be at least placed


  • Registered Users Posts: 38 MYOPIA


    Rain overnight at Epsom and thunderstorms loom as a distinct possibility today.
    The going will be all important per usual -- prognosticators beware .
    Epicuris to make all if it is soft --- as he did in Criterium De Saint-Cloud [Gp1] 8/11/14.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,843 ✭✭✭Panrich


    Pinesky wrote: »
    Great posting as usual Tryfix . I'm addled now, was hoping for the fairy-tale result with Success Days but he seems a one off in his extended family . Bad weather over the next few days would sort a lot out.


    The thing with the dam side on Success Days is that you'd have said that he wouldn't stay 10F either. He is an outlier already in that he gets 10F on heavy so he might get the extra distance too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 462 ✭✭muloc


    Any thoughts on Epicuris e/w? Nothing else jumping out at me besides the fav


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    muloc wrote: »
    Any thoughts on Epicuris e/w? Nothing else jumping out at me besides the fav

    I like him he's my selection after the ante post Giovanni. Not sure id be bothered with EW in these races.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,526 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Epicurus and Giovanni drifting...


  • Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭Ladeeen


    ah but the horses don't know that ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Can't see anything to touch Golden Horn, but his stamina. I'm quite happy with my have an interest bet on Giovanni Canaletto in case Golden Horn ain't up to it.

    Think Joseph O'Brien's mount Kilimanjaro will run a big race.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    I took some of the 2/1 available about Golden Horn this morning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    Johner wrote: »
    Zawraq is out, really hard to get excited about this years Derby. Hard to look past Golden Horn, I really like Jack Hobbs but think he's still a bit inexperienced and babyish. Golden Horn looks better at this stage of his career.

    Wouldn't touch any of O'Briens, none have shown anything good enough to win a Derby. I think the top 3 will be the top 3 from the Dante although Storm The Stars could run a big race.
    Johner wrote: »
    I took some of the 2/1 available about Golden Horn this morning.


    Happy with that. :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    What an animal Golden Horn is.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Backed Jack Hobbs but that Golden Horn is a top top animal. Some turn of foot.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    Mouth watering clash between Golden Horn and Gleneagles over 10f could be on the cards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    Mouth watering clash between Golden Horn and Gleneagles over 10f could be on the cards.

    They'll avoid him once there's mile Gp 1s to be mopped up


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    jimjamcos wrote: »
    They'll avoid him once there's mile Gp 1s to be mopped up

    Maybe they will but I think Gleneagles will be better over 10f. Wonder will they send him to the Eclipse?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    The most enjoyable Derby in years, a proper winner, wouldn't take the 2nd or 3rd to hold off O'Brien's in the Irish Derby.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Kudos to Carbon Dating for a huge run in the Derby considering his previous runs..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Very expensive for me.
    Storm The Stars at 80s down to 30s for a nice win. Jack Hobbs for much less at 15.5. A hefty place lay of Golden Horn.
    Storm The Stars and Jack Hobbs in trifectas with a few others but not the winner.
    A masterful ride on the winning jockey. Stayed well off the false pace.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    tryfix wrote: »
    Kudos to Carbon Dating for a huge run in the Derby considering his previous runs..

    Was about to post this. Ran a blinder. Was running on right at the end. Finished 8th but not beaten far by O Briens big guns.


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