Derby 2015

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

The thing about Gleneagles is he just doesn't look like a 12 furlong horse. He looks like a miler who might get 10.

That's true although 10f should be no bother to him at all on pedigree, I still wouldn't mind taking a risk on him getting 12f at his current price.

tryfix

Pinesky wrote: »

Great posting as usual Tryfix . I'm addled now, was hoping for the fairy-tale result with Success Days but he seems a one off in his extended family . Bad weather over the next few days would sort a lot out.

It'd definitely be a huge help, stranger things have happened although it would be shocking in the extreme. I wouldn't want to put you off having a bet on him in case he's a freak because he's already outrun his pedigree and you'd be sick as a parrot if he did it and you didn't have a small bet on him.

The thing about the Derby is that the odds are usually the best guide and all the pedigree analysis in the world won't trump the market as a guide.

tryfix

Today's Prix Du Jockey Club, the winner New Bay has some engine.

tryfix

Giovanni Canaletto DI 1.05 has the perfect Derby pedigree, being a repeat of his Derby winning full brother Ruler Of The World.


Can lightning strike twice? Well it came close with half brothers Galileo and Sea The Stars both winning the Derby, but both of those horses had the form in the book. On the other hand Giovanni Canaletto's half brother Duke Of Marmalade was a top top horse as well, so the chances of him emulating his GP1 winning brother and half brother by taking a GP 1 in some form are not to be dismissed lightly. In his favour he was O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy horse before missing the race because of heavy going? and was O'Brien's Chester Vase horse before scoping dirty and missing the race which his substitute Hans Holbein won. That would imply that he was likely to be up to winning the Chester Vase just like his brother did prior to Epsom.

On his bare form he's not good enough, although that was a decent race he ran in the last day. He now stands at 108 OR and in fairness could easily be rated a little higher for his performance in defeat the last day with the 107 rated Prince Gagarin 1 1/2l behind and that was over an inadequate 10f trip after coming back from being off colour.

Ruler Of The World went to Epsom with an OR of 109.

Realistically he's not likely to hit the 120 OR needed to win a moderate Derby at Epsom, but it wouldn't be hard to see him pick up to 115 with the fitness and distance boost he'd have at Epsom compared to the last day at the Curragh.

If he runs he has a solid chance of making the frame.

tryfix

Kilimanjaro DI 0.71 is a stayer judging by his Lingfield Derby Trial win and by his apparently stout pedigree. That Lingfield Derby Trial win was a weird race where Christophermarlowe's bubble bust and Kilimanjaro didn't get going until late. Can't really take anything from that other than the rest of the collateral form is moderate. Thought Ryan Moore looked happy enough with the horse afterwards, but that was probably because he'd just taken a big scalp.

His Dam Middle Persia was a 7-8f horse even though she was by staying influence Dalakhani out of the sharp Danehill mare Massara who was a Group class sprinter and who also produced the extremely frustrating Mars by Galileo who managed to finish a 3 1/2l 6th in the Epsom Derby followed by a 2 3/4l length 3rd to Dawn Approach and Toronado in the St James Palace stakes followed again by a 4l 4th to Al Kazeem in the Eclipse. Mars has a full brother called Toscanelli who sticks to 7f and a full sister called Wonderfully who was a group class miler.

That shows there's a potential engine in Kilimanjaro. Massara's dam was the cracking Henry Cecil filly Rafha who produced the top sire Invincible Spirit and Kodiac. High Chaparral looks like a weird choice for such a potential stallion producing family and he's not a huge stamina influence either so Kilimanjaro must be picking up the staying side from the introduction of Dalakhani into the line.

May not be the out and out stayer that he looks to be, but where he fits into the Derby picture is hard to figure.

With that DI 0.71 he could sneak into a place at a big price because he hasn't looked like the type to burn himself out pacemaking for the others.

tryfix

Storm The Stars DI 1.11 bred to get the trip, and a very admirable type from a Sadler's Wells mare from the Giant's Causeway, Gleneagles family line. So well bred that his dam was sold for $2.1 million with him in utero.

Not that sure he's running, and his form isn't good enough but he's one of those horses that makes headlines and grabs people's attention. He could stay on for a place as he's even more stoutly bred than he appears to be.

diomed

My guess at the finishing order

1) Jack Hobbs
A spectacular win by 12l in a messy 10f handicap put him in the Derby picture. He ran well in 2nd in the Dante, and looked good on the Derby course at Breakfast With The Stars.
Will he stay? Probably, although his sire Halling has afaik produced only four Group 1 winners (2 in France; 2 in Italy). Halling offspring winners 2 x Gr1; 20 x Gr2; 24 x Gr3. Two of the Halling offspring Group winners won at 7f, the rest at longer distances.

2) Storm The Stars
His sire is Sea The Stars, damsire Sadler’s Wells. His dam, Love Me True was sold in foal with Storm The Stars for $2.1 million. A court case to recover the $2.1 million was undecided by jury.
Two wins, three seconds from six starts. He should get the Epsom Derby 12f on pedigree and racing history. Has run on five tracks so is versatile, but may not be quick enough as his rating is some way below Derby winners.
Beaten a head by Derby favourite Golden Horn in a 8.5f maiden last October, 7l clear of the 3rd.

3) Hans Holbein
He is the opposite of Golden Horn on staying ability. His full sibling Sans Frontieres got 12f, and won the 14f Irish St Leger “comfortably”. Both Hans Holbein’s sire Galileo and damsire Shirley Heights won the Epsom Derby.
A late foal, May 21st, he has already won the 12f 66y Chester Vase on soft.
With some doubtful stayers at the head of the betting he should be staying on.

4) Kilimanjaro
A late foal. Won listed 11f 106y Lingfield Derby trial last run. Overall form is not strong.
Sire High Chaparral won the Epsom Derby. Damsire won the 12f French Derby and 12f Arc. His pedigree and the Lingfield race win say he will stay.

5) Elm Park
Good form at 7f and 8f as a 2yo. Beaten 6l over 10.4f in the Dante.
His sire Phoenix Reach won a 12f maiden, was 3rd in the St Leger, also winning over 12f mostly abroad. His dam, Lady Brora was rated 76, about the same as her five siblings.
Elm Park was a 23rd January foal and may have had a maturity advantage as a 2yo.

6) Epicuris
Four runs 1112. He won a 2yo 10f Group 1. Most form on soft/heavy.
Sire Rail Link won four times over 12f. Dam twice placed over 8f listed.
Top trainer must be respected. Epicuris is hard to assess.

7) Golden Horn
Unbeaten and had an impressive win in the Dante. He looks like the ideal Derby type: medium size, settles well, with a change of gears.
My guess is he is a non-stayer over the Epsom 12f. The Dante is over 1m2f88y, only 362 yards short of the Derby distance. But that ignores the 140 foot Epsom hill. Every pedigree calc of mine says 12f is too far.

8) Best Of Times
He might not stay. Won a 10f listed, but 2nd to Storm The Stars over 11f latest “not quicken, always held”. Dam’s dam produced St Leger winner Nedawi. This is more speedily bred.

9) Giovanni Canaletto
Maiden winner. Only three runs.
Full sibling of Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World so pedigree suits race.
Ruler Of The World had better form coming into the Derby.

10) Zawraq
He has won two races, 7f and 8f. He has entries in 8f, 10f, 12f Group races.
The form of his win in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown was boosted when the 2nd, Endless Drama , finished 2nd in his next two starts, the latest in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Interesting is the D K Weld horse Tombelaine beat Endless Drama, and then ran 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas. D K Weld trains Tombelaine.
I have doubts about Zawraq staying the Epsom 12f. His sire Shamardal was best at 8f, but his dam Sundus ran only once and won (10f). He has a mix close up in his pedigree: Shamardal 8f;10f, Giant’s Causeway 8f;10f, Machiavellian 7f, Sadler’s Wells 10f, Mr Prospector 6f, Height Of fashion 12f (filly).

11) Rocky Rider
He has a very strong staying pedigree, sire 12f Epsom Derby winner Galileo, damsire French Derby 12f winner Darshaan. His dam stayed 10f at a lower level.
His form is eclipsed by others in the race.

12) Success Days
This £75k supplemented horse has four wins from six starts, incl the Ballysax (Galileo; High Chaparral; Yeats; Fame And Glory) and Derrinstown Derby Trial (Sinndar; Galileo; High Chaparral; Alamshar; Years; Dylan Thomas; Fame And Glory; Battle Of Marengo).
Why do I not rate him higher? His sire is Jeremy, a miler, and damsire Roi Gironde, a 7f horse. Malaica, the dam of Success Days, had three wins, 5f, 5.5f, 6f.
Someone might say Jeremy sired Our Conor, who won over 16.5f. That was hurdles.
All my pedigree tests say Success Days is not going to get 12f.
All Success Day’s runs were on ground softer than good, with his two recent wins against two runners and three runners, both races on heavy.

13) Moheet
Moheet could get 12f. His pedigree gives hope. The dam’s dam Ingozi produced good horses: Kotsi; Miss Keller; Sir George Turner; Tissifer.
Moheet has run three times, all at 8f. He won his first race by 7l. His last two runs were in a Group 3, and the 2000 Guineas.
Moheet against Zawraq? This one has raced at a higher level. Zawraq has the “unbeaten” tag.
He hasn’t much on the scoreboard but he might surprise.

14) Rogue Runner
He has a staying pedigree. Only two runs. He is impossible to assess, and nothing on which to pin a recommendation.

15) Carbon Dating
His form is poor. His sire, The Crabon Unit, has few runners, only two rated above 100. His dam, Glen Kate, has produced three rated around 100, but they were best around a mile.

Bets: Storm The Stars carries my win money at 55, with another bet on Jack Hobbs at 15.5, and small bets on Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro. I have place laid Golden Horn.

Coachonions

I think with the race not far away that im leaning with Zawraq to perform a training masterclass for Dermot Weld.
Epsom will suit this horse and its looking like an Irish Winner.
Dont be surprised to see O Briens Hans Holbein running a close race
Would love to see Success Days win but a place could be on the cards if the rain comes.
Best of the English will probably be Elm Park.

shamdrog63

I agree with Tryfix above when he remarked that Moore seemed very happy with Kilimanjaro after his win.He,s notoriously hard to get a reaction from and he seemed impressed by the horse.It took a while for the penny to drop but he,s got stamina and it will be interesting to see which 1 of the Coolmore contingent Moore rides.If he,s put up on Kilimanjaro the price will halve so I,m having an e/way bet and hope to see him cut down the doubtful stayers late on, whoever rides.

MYOPIA

Epicuris is being overlooked. He was very impressive as a 2 year old and Criquette Head has always spoken highly of the son of Rail Link. First time out this season in heavy ground he got tired and finished second to Silverware [ran decent in Prix du Jockey Club Sunday] but then Epicuris failed to enter the stalls for Prix Greffhule. So he comes to Epsom with his own professional horse-whisperer type stalls handler [ not permitted in France ] Doubtful to be 25/1 on day.

kfallon

Coachonions wrote: »

I think with the race not far away that im leaning with Zawraq to perform a training masterclass for Dermot Weld.
Epsom will suit this horse and its looking like an Irish Winner.

Injury scare for Zawraq this morn, it's on Sporting Life website!

Gringo180

Kilimanjaro for me at the prices. He got an easy ride off Ryan Moore in the Derby trial at Lingfield last time out, hands and heels until the last 100 yards when he was showed the whip once to assert.

tryfix

My 1, 2, 3 are 1 Golden Horn ( the Dante form looks rock solid and Gosden is an Ace trainer ), 2 Zawraq if he runs ( the form of his trial win has been franked and he himself looked like he's not a miler that day ), 3 Giovanni Canaletto ( has much better form than he appears to have, I'm disgusted at his now skimpy price ). If Zawraq doesn't run I'd bunk up Hans Holbein to 3.

Mr Ed2011

AIDAN O'BRIEN has confirmed that Ryan Moore will ride Derby gamble Giovanni Canaletto in Saturday's Investec-sponsored Epsom Classic.

byronbay2

Mr Ed2011 wrote: »

AIDAN O'BRIEN has confirmed that Ryan Moore will ride Derby gamble Giovanni Canaletto in Saturday's Investec-sponsored Epsom Classic.

I was wondering what the big price change was about over the past couple of days. 16/1 on Monday to best-price 8/1 now. Zawraq drifting after his lameness scare - 15/2 best price now.

Johner

Zawraq is out, really hard to get excited about this years Derby. Hard to look past Golden Horn, I really like Jack Hobbs but think he's still a bit inexperienced and babyish. Golden Horn looks better at this stage of his career.

Wouldn't touch any of O'Briens, none have shown anything good enough to win a Derby. I think the top 3 will be the top 3 from the Dante although Storm The Stars could run a big race.

Mr Ed2011

Coral Offer, Get 5/1 on Golden Horn to Finish in the First Three in the Derby!
This is for new accounts only, £10 bet only and £20 in free bets if your bet loses

tryfix

It looks from the jockey bookings that Hans Holbein is going to be the Balldoyle pacemaker under Heffernan. I'd reckon that the dynamic of this race will be Hans Holbein's chances ( O'Brien already saying he may be beter over further with cut on the ground ) being sacrificed to make a strong pace with Kilimanjaro then being sent on near the end to stretch Golden Horn's stamina with Giovanni Canaletto trying to take the race in the last two furlongs.

King_of_Kingz

Pity if that is the case with Hans Holbein but you could very well be right, tactics are going to be a massive factor in how the race is won and lost!

Jack Hobbs is the one I think I'll side with because I think the extra 2f will see him reverse placings with Golden Horn, who's real target all along has been the Dewhurst(spelling). He may be babyish but the fact Frankie has been raving all week about he really fears him suggests that he would prefer to have kept his ride on him for this. Also the fact Buick has ridden Golden Horn means that he will know how the horse races which is a bonus.

https://sportshangout.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/epsom-derby-2015-preview

There's a more comprehensive run down if anyone wants or needs one!

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Gringo180

ziggy wrote: »

Dewhurst?? I seriously doubt golden horns target is a 7f two-year-old race

Surely meant the Eclipse?

jacko1

Johner wrote: »

Zawraq is out, really hard to get excited about this years Derby. Hard to look past Golden Horn, I really like Jack Hobbs but think he's still a bit inexperienced and babyish. Golden Horn looks better at this stage of his career.

Wouldn't touch any of O'Briens, none have shown anything good enough to win a Derby. I think the top 3 will be the top 3 from the Dante although Storm The Stars could run a big race.

Two of them have won recognised derby trials at Chester & Lingfield and the third is the stable choice who has huge improvement in him given that he has only won three times.

Given his maiden performance at Leopardstown, the fact that he will come on enormously from the Galinule, that he is the stable choice and that the field is poor, Giovanni Caneletto is nailed on to be at least placed

MYOPIA

Rain overnight at Epsom and thunderstorms loom as a distinct possibility today.
The going will be all important per usual -- prognosticators beware .
Epicuris to make all if it is soft --- as he did in Criterium De Saint-Cloud [Gp1] 8/11/14.

Panrich

Pinesky wrote: »

Great posting as usual Tryfix . I'm addled now, was hoping for the fairy-tale result with Success Days but he seems a one off in his extended family . Bad weather over the next few days would sort a lot out.

The thing with the dam side on Success Days is that you'd have said that he wouldn't stay 10F either. He is an outlier already in that he gets 10F on heavy so he might get the extra distance too.

muloc

Any thoughts on Epicuris e/w? Nothing else jumping out at me besides the fav

longshotvalue

muloc wrote: »

Any thoughts on Epicuris e/w? Nothing else jumping out at me besides the fav

I like him he's my selection after the ante post Giovanni. Not sure id be bothered with EW in these races.

retalivity

Epicurus and Giovanni drifting...

Ladeeen

ah but the horses don't know that

tryfix

Can't see anything to touch Golden Horn, but his stamina. I'm quite happy with my have an interest bet on Giovanni Canaletto in case Golden Horn ain't up to it.

Think Joseph O'Brien's mount Kilimanjaro will run a big race.

Johner

I took some of the 2/1 available about Golden Horn this morning.