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Pep's Great Escape? Bayern vs Barca. k/o 19:45, TV3, ITV
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12-05-2015 1:42pm#1
Right well, you can't just half do something can you?
Bayern enter their own Arena tonight facing a 3 goal deficit. This isn't the first time in the competition this season that they've been chasing a deficit. They recovered from a 3-1 deficit against Porto to thrash them 7-1. Barcelona obviously aren't Porto.
Except, when they sort of are. Both teams do have similar-ish defensive systems*. Both defend very compactly allowing a lot of space on the wings. Bayern got a great deal of joy out of that space in the second leg against Porto. The dilemma teams face against Barca though is an incredibly cruel one. In order to exploit that space you have to create an effective overlap. Common sense dictates that this will be provided by your full backs. If Barcelona are drawing or losing to you the respective forward player of the attacking trident will track back. However, if they're winning. Messi, Neymar, and Suarez will occupy the respective wings and centre of the field position in as much as offensive a threateningly high line as possible. (Unless they're down a man.) If the attacking team screws up in any significant manner they're exposed to a deadly counter attack with Barca's trident in the best possible attacking positions. Mostly what this amounts to is teams trailing to Barcelona not being able to fully commit players to attack. Last week Bayern broke this trend; the third goal happened! The other option for Bayern would be to provide that overlap via one of their attacking midfielders. That's unconventional to say the least, but don't be surprised if Pep comes up with some sort of system that is similar to this while providing the best possible defensive balance to the side. Whatever he comes up with, it's certainly going to be case of choose the best out of a series of terrible options defence wise. Luis Enrique isn't just going to sit there and let him have the freedom to do what he wants either. Either way, Bayern will likely aggressively chase the game. How defensively balanced they'll be is anyone's question. There's no doubt they'll be risking a cricket score in the process.
Zlatan once said that Pep had no balls. I disagree, Pep's problem is that he's got too much. Such were the levels of faith that Pep showed in his players last week that every Bayern fan likely had their blood pressure checked at several intervals during the game. The "3-4-3" or, 3-err 7, approach was nothing new. Though you'd be forgiven for thinking it was. It was a ploy he'd often used with various "Pepsy modifications" at intervals in games while managing Barcelona to unsettle opponents. Barca's 3-1 Demolition of Jose's Madrid - a very technically proficient side - at the Bernabeau in 2012, is a really good successful example of it.
The idea is fairly simple. Trust ability of your defenders to stick like glue to the main frontline attackers pushing them back as far as possible in the process. Your keeper provides sweeper cover in behind. This allows 7 other players to structurally press the opposition relentlessly high in their own half for the ball. Forcing them into pressurised passes that should mostly be inaccurate, contestable or containable, defensive wise. Statistically speaking on rare occasions the opposition will play a precise pass cutting open your defence. In general, the offensive benefits strongly outweigh the negative side effects. Like properly implemented zonal marking when it fails it looks spectacularly stupid. There is however a very sound logic to it.
Where that logic begins to wane is the current form and conditioning of this Barca side is imperious. Last few seasons they'd most likely have crumbled against it. We knew they were better than the last few years iterations but I'll be honest, I didn't expect them to be as good at breaking the pressure as they were. It was breathtaking! Despite being pressed incessantly, Iniesta and Busquets were able to create space with portal guns or something. Thus allowing others time to create space. Thereby creating a headache for Pep. As a ploy it wasn't working and he switched it. Probably thanking the football gods in the process that he hadn't conceded. Then later once Barca had tired a little, he switched back. There was a problem however. After around 60 minutes his Bayern players were beginning to fatigue a little from their exertions. Barcelona were clearly less fatigued. They or their coaches sensed this and began pressing higher against Bayern. (Your turn!) The first goal came from Alves winning the ball back high in Bayern's half. The Second from Rakitic. Messi did the business, but the role of Alves and Rakitic, who both played fantastically all game, cannot be overlooked. They don't win the ball back and Messi has a quiet night.
About ten minutes before the goal Gary Neville remarked that space was appearing, Bayern probably needed to drop back. After the first concession Bayern definitely needed to shut up shop. Instead they opened it up more - and more again after another concession. A ballsy move to get the away goal but ultimately a foolhardy one. Historically, they had gone from a 68% chance of progression in the sixtieth minute to a 7% chance at final whistle.
That stat ignores current form of the opposition: Barcelona have only lost one match this season by more than 1 goal. That was a 2 goal defeat to a scintillating Real Madrid side. They have played 29 matches this year and won 27 of them. They are currently on run of 7 games in a row without conceding. Their last concession being an own goal against PSG. From set pieces this season they've scored more goals than they've conceded. They've kept a whopping 22 clean sheets in La Liga. Perhaps the most telling stat of them all was last week Bayern created 1 good goal scoring opportunity. Barca had 11. But they do defend with a similar system to Porto. Perhaps, there a little glimmer there? Ter Stegen has lacked composure on occasions too. That's perhaps something? Pique and Alves are one booking away from a suspension. Another little something? Bayern are more ferocious at home than they are away. Another little thing bit of optimism? One would surely expect that it'd be harder for Barca playing away from home to make space when being pressed so intensely? That's going to be interesting to find out.
Here's where Pep stands: If he wants to win this game he's going to likely have to play an even more aggressive attacking variant to the 3-4-3 he started with last week. (Bayern fans may need to stock up on the diuretics.) Bayern are going to have to bombard the flanks. His players are going to have commit to ferociously attacking with a gruellingly high intensity. All the while taking the huge risk of Barcelona stinging them with a lightning counter. If Barca score first Bayern are highly likely to get creamed. BUT If Bayern score the first two goals anything could still happen. From the perspective of the neutrals here's hoping they do - and quickly.
*I've only seen Porto play 3 times so it's possible what I witnessed was against their usual trend.13
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