Brentford Soccermoneyball

dreamers75

So does it or will it ever work?

In February, Matthew Benham, the owner of the English club Brentford, did an astonishing thing. Even though Brentford had earned promotion to the second-tier Championship just last season, and even though the club was in fifth place in the league, Benham effectively fired the manager (Mark Warburton), assistant manager (David Weir) and sporting director (Frank McParland), announcing their contracts would not be renewed at season’s end.

Why on earth would he do a thing like that? The answer, Benham argues, lay in the data. His data. Benham, you see, is not your typical sports owner. Over the years, Benham made a fortune betting on soccer, more than enough to buy Brentford (his childhood team) in 2012 and a Danish club called Midtjylland last year. His betting success was based on a mathematical model that he believes is far more reflective of a team’s strength than the league table itself. http://www.si.com/planet-futbol/2015/05/15/soccer-analytics-brentford-midtjylland-matthew-benham

To the layman its betting/building a team based on FM style stats....ie winger makes 20 runs and 8 crosses and gets 1 assist every other game.

This 100% works in every sport that does not be decided on the bounce of a ball.

Now before the guffaws, do you think this could work in football and if the answer is Yes?No please elaborate......the danish team and Brentford seriously punching well above their weight.


/FYI i think everything ever in the entire world can be predicted by maths....but not football.....i can not see any equation that would work in the world of football mainly due to the bounce of the ball. Its the X that cannot be predicted IMO.

dfx-

It's likely nonsense in the long run, it can all come down to a defender og or penalty not given.

Or the winger should have run on the outside or released the ball earlier or he passed the ball 5 times, 4 of which were to the right foot of a left footed player.

Morf

dreamers75 wrote: »

/FYI i think everything ever in the entire world can be predicted by maths....but not football.....i can not see any equation that would work in the world of football mainly due to the bounce of the ball. Its the X that cannot be predicted IMO.

You're getting into chaos theory. If you can predict everything else then you can know the exact data at the start of a game to allow you to make far, far more accurate forecasts of the games events etc.

Have they spent much on transfers?

Oranage2

Do what my parents did and send him to school with nothing, it'll teach him a life lesson, he won't be bitter many many years later!

Fr Tod Umptious

I'd love to see what sort of thinking is behind the stats, as in how do they help one team over another in a game.

As we have seen the Moneyball idea works to a certain extent in baseball.

But base ball is different than soccer.

What i took from Moneyball was that the main theory was that if you could guys who got on base a lot, or got deep in the count a lot, then it meant that the opposing pitcher had to throw more pitches and work harder and longer, which then gave you an advantage.


What is the soccer equivalent of that theory ?

duffman13

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'd love to see what sort of thinking is behind the stats, as in how do they help one team over another in a game.

As we have seen the Moneyball idea works to a certain extent in baseball.

But base ball is different than soccer.

What i took from Moneyball was that the main theory was that if you could guys who got on base a lot, or got deep in the count a lot, then it meant that the opposing pitcher had to throw more pitches and work harder and longer, which then gave you an advantage.


What is the soccer equivalent of that theory ?

There is more variables in football than Baseball, you can effectively predict with some degree of accuracy how many times X will hit a ball and get on base. It's two people involved, a pitcher and a batter, also take it into consideration the number of games over a season it's easier to extrapolate data.

In football variables not faced to the same extent in baseball include:
Tactics,
Players for (almost impossible to quantify bar goals and assists)
Referees

Saint_Mel

Not sure if this is the same thing but there was a piece on Off The Ball a long time ago about teams using Data to look for future transfer targets. Think Spurs were mentioned as a big advocate of it.

Lovely Bloke

There was a piece on the Second Captains Football podcast yesterday about Brentford and Midtjylland.

Midtjylland are going to win the Danish league this season, by a distance, based on this theory.

keane2097

This is obviously going to be a very powerful move in an industry in thrall to former players who don't have a clue what they are doing or why they are doing it in every role at every level.

death1234567

Baldy Conscience wrote: »

Midtjylland are going to win the Danish league this season, by a distance,based on this theory.

How do you know it's because of the theory though? In general in football the team with the highest wage bill wins the league. How much money have they spent relative to the other Danish teams?

Muahahaha

Was gonna start a thread on Brentford because today is the day they might get into the Premier League but found this one discussing their moneyball approach which is the main talking point around Brentford. I've been following them for a few years looking out for their results so I'm really hoping they do the business today in the play off vs.Fulham.

They believe that much of the conventional wisdom in football is wrong and look for ways to take advantage of that:-

For David to beat Goliath, he needed to use a different weapon. If David had used the same weapon, he would have lost the battle. You've got to find your weapons. That's what Brentford is about." Sitting in his office at the Jersey Road training ground in West London, Rasmus Ankersen, Brentford’s co-director of football, outlines his philosophy of how underdogs can thrive in modern football: by using their brains.

"Brentford can't win by outspending the competition so we have to outthink them. And the question that comes from that is how can we be different? How can we do things in a different way? So, what are the inefficiencies in the system in football, and how can we exploit those?"

Their moneyball approach can be summarised as such-

-They had a youth academy which was costing them around 1.5 million a year to run. They did their sums and figured out it wasnt working, they would invest in kids from 8 years up to 18 years and the problem was Premier League clubs could steal their players up until the age of 16 and Brentford would only get a pittance having spent years investing in them. So they disbanded the youth academy.
-Next they set up a B team to compete with the first team and concentrated on filling it with the 'rejects' from Premier League academies. Lads who were 21 or 22, very talented but were not going to make the grade at Chelsea, City, etc. Think late developers like Jamie Vardy, Ian Wright, etc. The Brentford B team has a fair few youth internationals in it from across Europe.
-Their statistical model found that English players were way too overvalued in the market. They found far better value in Europe and as such positioned the club as an attractive stepping stone for continental players with ambitions to play in the Premier League. 'Reject' B team players would get 3 year contracts to prove themselves and fight for a place in the first team.
-They take a holistic approach to recruiting players, their personalities are analysed and each player is scouted 25 times before purchase. Players get nutrition and cooking lessons. What they want is "self-managing athletes". They have found that Danes and Swedes already come with this philosophy of keeping their bodies in tip top condition, Christiano Ronaldo being the role model of what Brentford want from their players

This article is a 10 minute read and goes into more detail on the above
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2718752-brentfords-moneyball-way-to-beat-football-teams-with-huge-budgets

So heres hoping plucky Brentford finally reach the Premier League today. They were close to automatic promotion but had a bad result in the second to last game so I'm hoping we see them put that right and finally getting promotion this evening. Whatever happens they have been on a remarkable journey.

~Rebel~

Interesting!
Though the play-off final isn’t till Tuesday.

Mickeroo

I'm sceptical about how far the approach can go with football but it's very interesting reading I have to say, and I now actively want them promoted to see how they get on!

Harry Palmr

The game is on Tuesday at 19.45, hoping for a new name in a new stadium. They'll probably lose two of their BMW I'll guess the M will stay, plenty of noise about the other two.

CSF

Mickeroo wrote: »

I'm sceptical about how far the approach can go with football but it's very interesting reading I have to say, and I now actively want them promoted to see how they get on!

Why sceptical? They have all the football expertise that everyone else does, but have an insane analytical database covering the whole world to go with it. Being able to churn out that level of profit for the likes of Scott Hogan and Andre Gray is not a luxury that many clubs have.

You don’t get that kind of consistency in the transfer market from having lads in the stand watching games alone.

Matthew Benham has taken over 2 clubs with this approach and taken a Danish club to their first 3 titles and is now on the verge of taking his other club to the Premier League with one of the lowest budgets in the league.

Muahahaha

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Interesting!
Though the play-off final isn’t till Tuesday.

balls, youre right. I could have sworn I saw it listed on the BBC as being on this evening. Clearly not, new pair of glasses please

Anyway keep an eye on them on Tuesday, it should be worth tuning in to see if they can do it. A lot of people were skeptical of their moneyball approach when they implemented it a few years back but they are on the verge of the Premier League now so it appears that something about it has been paying off for them.

CSF

Muahahaha wrote: »

balls, youre right. I could have sworn I saw it listed on the BBC as being on this evening. Clearly not, new pair of glasses please

Anyway keep an eye on them on Tuesday, it should be worth tuning in to see if they can do it. A lot of people were skeptical of their moneyball approach when they implemented it a few years back but they are on the verge of the Premier League now so it appears that something about it has been paying off for them.

I think your British media type is sceptical of anything that didn’t exist in the 1980s.

Blackjack

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'd love to see what sort of thinking is behind the stats, as in how do they help one team over another in a game.

As we have seen the Moneyball idea works to a certain extent in baseball.

But base ball is different than soccer.

What i took from Moneyball was that the main theory was that if you could guys who got on base a lot, or got deep in the count a lot, then it meant that the opposing pitcher had to throw more pitches and work harder and longer, which then gave you an advantage.


What is the soccer equivalent of that theory ?

I think the statistical thing can be applied to an awful lot of sports. The reason the moneyball theory was so successful in Baseball is that baseball (and I’m paraphrasing what I gleaned from some podcast on the topic - I’m not sure I recall the source but it was probably Bloomberg odd lots) is more of an individual sport rather than a team game - each player has a very specific role to play so it’s not as complex a game when it comes to the tactics side of things.

Pretty sure I read a good article during the week where the owner said they don't like the moneyball comparison, and pointed to differences.

Ah, here it is...
https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-league-championship/story/4145973/brentford-close-in-on-premier-league-dream-just-dont-thank-moneyball-for-their-success

Roanmore

Muahahaha wrote: »

balls, youre right. I could have sworn I saw it listed on the BBC as being on this evening. Clearly not, new pair of glasses please

Anyway keep an eye on them on Tuesday, it should be worth tuning in to see if they can do it. A lot of people were skeptical of their moneyball approach when they implemented it a few years back but they are on the verge of the Premier League now so it appears that something about it has been paying off for them.

Hope Brentford do it, have a soft spot for them since Stephen Hunt played for them.
I worked with Stephen's father John year's ago.
The sister of a friend of mine lived near Brentford and my friend went over to visit her one weekend. John arranged tickets through Stephen for them.
They said the fans were superb, wondered why they were there and were very complementary about Stephen when they told them the connection.

Think they deserve it anyway, can't believe they fell short in the last 2 games.

dreamers75

Pats signed 2 of their B team players on short term deals, both lads were blowing before half time but recovered well to maintain a high press for almost the 90 minutes.

They both look decent.

Muahahaha

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty sure I read a good article during the week where the owner said they don't like the moneyball comparison, and pointed to differences.

Ah, here it is...
https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-league-championship/story/4145973/brentford-close-in-on-premier-league-dream-just-dont-thank-moneyball-for-their-success

Thats a good article. Though Im not sure why the owner is saying it isnt moneyball when you look at their transfer strategy of identifying undervalued players in the market, developing them and then flipping them when bigger clubs come sniffing. They survive as a club from the profits selling players brings and they do that by being very smart in the transfer market

Over the past decade, Brentford spent £63.2m in the transfer market. They've recouped £130m in player sales.

He has another layer on top of the moneyball aspect in that they use stats and data analysis to further team performance, something I would think all PL clubs are doing at this stage. And then another layer of doing personality tests on potential recruits to ensure they are a good fit and are footballers who already have a philosophy of clean living and looking after themselves through nutrition.

There was a good interview in the Athletic last year with Liverpools head of data analysis and he spoke a lot about his model of expected chances on goal and using the data to figure out where on the pitch getting the ball to gives them statistically better chances of scoring. That data is then fed to the players who make their passing decisions based on it. They've used data to figure out combinations of pass and move play that opposition teams find extraordinarily difficult to defend against. Brentford are using a similar approach, things like bringing in a throw in coach because they worked out they could score more goals or spending more time training on their set pieces as they give them a higher chance of scoring than from open play.

CSF

I think he takes offence to what he does being called moneyball, because it’s much more complicated. Way more variables in a game of football than baseball.

osarusan

CSF wrote: »

Way more variables in a game of football than baseball.

This is what I was thinking. In baseball each player has a number of skills which they will repeat endlessly, but not so much variation outside that for the most part.


Football is far more fluid and requires more skills in addition to the ones they use most often.


That said, maybe they can make the same principles work.

CSF

osarusan wrote: »

This is what I was thinking. In baseball each player has a number of skills which they will repeat endlessly, but not so much variation outside that for the most part.


Football is far more fluid and requires more skills in addition to the ones they use most often.


That said, maybe they can make the same principles work.

Principles are the same, but it would be way more focused on the micro data. xG is a very useful stat but it doesn’t tell you anything about why that number of goals are expected.

DeanAustin

This stuff is very interesting. People are sceptical about it because it’s not absolute – of course there are things you can’t legislate for with stats – but I’d be pretty confident that this approach can give teams an advantage.

I’m not a fan of judging players or performances solely on stats. It does my head in when I see people quoting stats only as if that absolutely validates their argument. But they have a part to play and I think these guys are proof that the approach can work.

CSF

DeanAustin wrote: »

This stuff is very interesting. People are sceptical about it because it’s not absolute – of course there are things you can’t legislate for with stats – but I’d be pretty confident that this approach can give teams an advantage.

I’m not a fan of judging players or performances solely on stats. It does my head in when I see people quoting stats only as if that absolutely validates their argument. But they have a part to play and I think these guys are proof that the approach can work.

You’re right, and the stats they’re using are a lot more detailed and catered to be meaningful than the kind of stats that we can access at the click of a button.

Muahahaha

Kick off v Fulham is 7.45pm. Looking forward to this if I can find a stream, main app isnt showing it

event

They lost 2 nil

Clareman

event wrote: »

They lost 2 nil

2-1

Muahahaha

yeah they didnt perform last night, Fulham were strolling through their midfield at points. I think them falling short of automatic promotion in the last two games took the belief and confidence out of them.

CSF

Muahahaha wrote: »

yeah they didnt perform last night, Fulham were strolling through their midfield at points. I think them falling short of automatic promotion in the last two games took the belief and confidence out of them.

The a*se really fell out of them towards the end after being so good for most of the year, particularly after lockdown. Kind of like Leeds last year. Whether they will be able to keep players and pick themselves up next year like Leeds did, remains to be seen.

event

They rely a lot on their front three and if they dont click, they are in trouble. Their midfield is average enough for the championship. I'd say Benrahma or Watkins be sold

Mushy

event wrote: »

They rely a lot on their front three and if they dont click, they are in trouble. Their midfield is average enough for the championship. I'd say Benrahma or Watkins be sold

Watkins seemingly has a release clause of 18m so likely to be snapped up

CSF

event wrote: »

They rely a lot on their front three and if they dont click, they are in trouble. Their midfield is average enough for the championship. I'd say Benrahma or Watkins be sold

Thing is though, people we’re probably saying the same about them losing Maupay and Konsa last year and they didn’t miss a step. Same with Andre Gray, Scott Hogan, Tarkowski, Mepham, Egan, Ryan Woods in the years before.

They’re remarkably good at letting their good players go at a profit and replacing them, and repeating the cycle.

GHOST MGG

Mushy wrote: »

Watkins seemingly has a release clause of 18m so likely to be snapped up

Watkins did not have a release clause and he is now being touted at 25m

Mushy

GHOST MGG wrote: »

Watkins did not have a release clause and he is now being touted at 25m

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53662774

Seems to have been activated following Tuesday according to the link

CSF

Mushy wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53662774

Seems to have been activated following Tuesday according to the link

There have been a lot of reports that have come out since to refute that link.

keano_afc

I really wanted to see them come up. They absolutely bottled the end of the regular season.

PhilipsR

keano_afc wrote: »

I really wanted to see them come up. They absolutely bottled the end of the regular season.

8 wins in a row to get into the position of having a chance on the final day. I’d say more reversion to the mean of the total season rather than ‘bottled’.

keano_afc

PhilipsR wrote: »

8 wins in a row to get into the position of having a chance on the final day. I’d say more reversion to the mean of the total season rather than ‘bottled’.

When they needed to perform they didnt. It was on a plate and they bottled it.

franglan

As a Brentford fan to be in a position to go up automatically when the season restarted would have been a dream. To win that many matches in a row was outstanding. Stoke deserved to beat them at home, looked like they were fighting for their careers and the bees weren't. Feels like a serious missed opportunity - no guarantee you get that close again.

event

CSF wrote: »

Thing is though, people we’re probably saying the same about them losing Maupay and Konsa last year and they didn’t miss a step. Same with Andre Gray, Scott Hogan, Tarkowski, Mepham, Egan, Ryan Woods in the years before.

They’re remarkably good at letting their good players go at a profit and replacing them, and repeating the cycle.

I just said if their current front 3 dont click, they are in trouble which is true.
I'm well aware they are able to replace their good players

CSF

event wrote: »

I just said if their current front 3 dont click, they are in trouble which is true.
I'm well aware they are able to replace their good players

I was obviously responding that the chances are low of that given their track record of signing.

Bounty Hunter

Well Benrahma has seemingly told them he wants to leave with Villa, Spurs and more linked so we will see if they can continue to make shrewd signing after selling players on for relative big money. He is likely to cost someone circa 25m

Muahahaha

They bought Benrahma for £1.5m two years ago so getting £25m for him now would be great business.

dreamers75

To be the way they are, if I was a scout/data analyst with I would want some serious commission on players moving on.

CSF

dreamers75 wrote: »

To be the way they are, if I was a scout/data analyst with I would want some serious commission on players moving on.

They’re not the brainchild of it though. Matthew Benham the owner is. He basically compiled all the in depth statistics to become really rich as a professional gambler, then set up Smartodds which is basically a gambling company that sells that data to ridiculously high net worth pro gamblers.

The people who put the statistics together get like 20 pound per game watched apparently. Although they’ve 2 sporting directors who are tasked with making all that hard data into something meaningful that helps with recruitment, match analysis etc.

I’d say them lads are on more than your average 2nd tier club sporting directors for sure.

Muahahaha

Congrats to Brentford, they finally did it after a few years of knocking on the door. Will be interesting to see if they kick on or struggle in the Premier League. Them coming up gives Chelsea a new local derby to replace Fulham as Brentford is just a few miles up the road in west London

NIMAN

Even if they come bottom of the EPL next year, they will supposedly pocket £130,000,000.

Moneyballs indeed.