2015/16 EPCR draw, Wednesday 17 June 1:15pm Irish time

total former

Fireball07 wrote: »

Based on history, maybe but Stade are the Top 14 champions. Where they beat Clermont, one of the other top seeds. They beat Racing & Toulon by fairly big margins on the way. They have a very strong pack and are adding Will Genia to their squad for next season. I rate them pretty highly tbh.


It is the easiest group for Irish teams, but that's mainly down to Treviso. Munster will qualify. But Stade are still favourites to finish ahead of us; I would have much preferred to be top seeds and take our chances

Castres were champions two seasons ago... I think if Stade really target the European Cup, then they can cause Munster problems, but I don't think they will, I don't think they have a big enough squad to compete on both fronts. I can't see them finishing ahead of Munster.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Where are you finding the odds?

They're not available yet.

The draw didn't really change any of the odds that PP were offering too madly though. Bath @ 16/1 is surprising enough.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/heineken-cup

edit: someone should tell paddy power to fix their urls! :pac:

Fireball07

Deleted User wrote: »

Where are you finding the odds?

I wasn't going on odds, I was going on general perception. I just don't see how Munster will be stronger next year and they weren't good enough this year. Obviously Saili will be a big plus, and hopefully we might have Earls for the whole season. But we collapsed any time we didn't have Murray last season and I don't see that changing and without POC... our pack is massively weakened. Foley & Ryan are good but neither are in that class. Archer is likely to be our starting TH, Botha is another year older.

I expect Munster will be worse unless we get very lucky with injuries and Stade are a strong team.

total former wrote: »

Castres were champions two seasons ago... I think if Stade really target the European Cup, then they can cause Munster problems, but I don't think they will, I don't think they have a big enough squad to compete on both fronts. I can't see them finishing ahead of Munster.

This is a good point and probably the main thing in our favour. That Castres team that won the Top 14 were very strong but didn't give the HC their full focus. Hopefully the same will happen here but Stade do have a lot of very good players & backup in their pack in particular. And Genia, Dupuy, Steyn and Plisson as your 4 half-backs isn't bad at all.

Riskymove

Fireball07 wrote: »

Based on history, maybe but Stade are the Top 14 champions. Where they beat Clermont, one of the other top seeds. They beat Racing & Toulon by fairly big margins on the way. They have a very strong pack and are adding Will Genia to their squad for next season. I rate them pretty highly tbh.

as ever, the key will be how much a priority SF make the European Cup

The away trips are all great, roll on the details

Riskymove

.ak wrote: »

Toulon will be in the Aviva, without doubt. They'll sell the place out.

I agree and if any sense will be the back to back December games

(not sure if weekends delayed due to RWC!)

Cookiemunster

Riskymove wrote: »

I agree and if any sense will be the back to back December games

(not sure if weekends delayed due to RWC!)

The first two rounds are the middle two weekends in November rather than October. Rounds 3 - 6 are on their normal weekends.

bilston

Saracens at Spanners will be some occasion. The atmosphere will red hot.

bilston

bilston wrote: »

Saracens at Spanners will be some occasion. The atmosphere will red hot.

Is this a thing now???

scott1974

.ak wrote: »

Toulon will be in the Aviva, without doubt. They'll sell the place out.

I don't think any of the pool games have ever sold out in the Aviva.. even when Leinster were winning HC's.
And a big drop off in numbers last year...I think we'd do better (atmosphere-wise, not financially) to hold it in the RDS..

bilston

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is this a thing now???

No idea! I've seen it called that by a few on uafc. Maybe it should be a thing!

bilston

Not the worst draw for Ulster in the cold light of day.

The hate should see us through against Saracens at home, Toulouse aren't all that anymore and Oyonnax should be beatable. We just need to keep everyone fit and we have a real chance of doung something in that pool.

total former

Just noticed; I'd imagine this is the first time ever that a pool has contained four former champions?

.ak

total former wrote: »

Just noticed; I'd imagine this is the first time ever that a pool has contained four former champions?

8 cups in total as well?

total former

.ak wrote: »

8 cups in total as well?

Nine by my count.

Podge_irl

9 trophies and all 4 were quarter finalists last year. Crazy.

And come to think of it all played each other in the knock-outs.

.ak

total former wrote: »

Nine by my count.

Let's drink every time the media reference the "pedigree" in pool 5.

Dave_The_Sheep

.ak wrote: »

Let's drink every time the media reference the "pedigree" in pool 5.

Liver says no.

awec

bilston wrote: »

Saracens at Spanners will be some occasion. The atmosphere will red hot.

As someone said on UAFC they'll be passing around the "Ulster Rugby Values" in big bold writing before that match. :pac:

Wang King

Work day from hell today, only home 15 mins and decided to read this thread as I had no clue as to the draw earlier today.... For once, as a Munster fan I have a broad smile on my face, Ulster fans must be wincing.....and Leinster fans must be feeling like Dirk Diggler went in hard and dry!

awec

Wang King wrote: »

Work day from hell today, only home 15 mins and decided to read this thread as I had no clue as to the draw earlier today.... For once, as a Munster fan I have a broad smile on my face, Ulster fans must be wincing.....and Leinster fans must be feeling like Dirk Diggler went in hard and dry!

I was annoyed earlier but looking forward now to getting another crack at that lot.

Two decent French trips in there too. Might go to Oyonnax depending on the schedule.

P_1

.ak wrote: »

Let's drink every time the media reference the "pedigree" in pool 5.

Alright chum

Buer

Would see Leinster as being up against it to qualify. They can only hope a combination of JS and everyone taking points from one another gives them some hope. Any side that can win a game on the road is right in the mix. While it's an utter stinker of a group, there's no reason Leinster cannot win away to Bath or Wasps and win their home games.

I see Wasps as more of a threat. They're very much on an upward trajectory. I'm not sure Bath will be anything better than they have been this season and their signings (Priestland, Matawalu and Homer) don't do much to improve them. James Johnston and George Smith are big signings for Wasps. Their back row is going to be able to compete with anyone in Europe on their day and I can see them being match winners in the pool stage.

Ulster should be in with a decent chance of progressing. 3 runners up go through and I can't see Oyonnax giving a fiddlers about the cup. That's potentially 9 points. Win the other two home games and I can see Ulster going through.

Saracens will be tough but nothing new for Ulster. They need to beat them some day and should do it at home in the pool. Don't see Toulouse as the side they were. Noves is gone. Their pack is ageing and they've signed nobody. Next season is a development one for them and Ulster are getting them at just the right time.

Munster should progress. Can't see their pool giving them too much trouble. They should win all of their home games including a BP win away to Treviso and I would expect a minimum of 2 points from their other away games combined which should give them 20 and at least enough to go through as a runner up if not pool winner (which I would expect them to achieve).

SF have made a couple of interesting signings but I'd expect them to be a little under prepared for this tournament still. They won the T14 this season due to being fresh at the end of the season. They weren't in the ECC and didn't need to expend much energy. Will be a very different season next year for them.

CatFromHue

bilston wrote: »

Not the worst draw for Ulster in the cold light of day.

The hate should see us through against Saracens at home, Toulouse aren't all that anymore and Oyonnax should be beatable. We just need to keep everyone fit and we have a real chance of doung something in that pool.

The hate haha, the new Star Wars film is out in December. You can fall into the Dark Side big time then

CatFromHue

Clermont
Ospreys
Exeter
Oyanixx

This could be the season we see Ospreys make it to the QF's, as a best second runner up.

duckysauce

Deleted User wrote: »

Where are you finding the odds?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup

bilston

CatFromHue wrote: »

The hate haha, the new Star Wars film is out in December. You can fall into the Dark Side big time then

Oh I intend to!

I'm glad someone picked up on the reference. I thought ak. might have done!

slingerz

I reckon Ulster can do a number on Saracens to be honest. A word to their fans travelling to London for the away game though, tickets are going to be tight and tbf any Sarries fans i met there were a decent sort just a pity about those in charge over there

Snickers Man

total former wrote: »

Just noticed; I'd imagine this is the first time ever that a pool has contained four former champions?

Somebody once said that "History is bunk" but compare the record in the competition of each group.

Group 2 (No Irish teams) Zero titles between all four teams

Group 3 (No Irish teams) One title (Northampton 2000) between all four teams

Group 4 (Munster's ) Four titles (Munster 2, Leicester 2) between all four teams

Group 1 (Ulsters) Five titles (Ulster 1, Toulouse 4) between all four teams


Group 5 (Leinster's) NINE titles (Leinster 3, Toulon 3, Wasps 2, Bath 1) between all four teams!!!

A group of death for certain.

bilston

CatFromHue wrote: »

Clermont
Ospreys
Exeter
Oyanixx

This could be the season we see Ospreys make it to the QF's, as a best second runner up.

Definitely a big chance for them, although Oyannax are in Ulster's pool. Think the 4th team here are Bordeuax. Still beatable you'd imagine.

Riskymove

Snickers Man wrote: »

Somebody once said that "History is bunk" but compare the record in the competition of each group.

History is bunk

Bath and Ulster won the cup 16/17 years ago

Munster and Wasps won 7 and 8 years ago

Riskymove

Riskymove wrote: »

History is bunk

Bath and Ulster won the cup 16/17 years ago

Munster and Wasps won 7 and 8 years ago

history is bunk to an extent but there is no ifs or buts that group is likely the toughest in european cup history

.ak

Yeah bath and wasps have found form recently so whilst the cups aren't relevant they certainly represent the challenges of the group.

molloyjh

The same happened to Munster last year. The new rules re seeding need to be looked at. It's bloody ridiculous that there are pools containing multiple semi-finalists. And worse a pool containing teams who all made the knock-outs the previous season. A scoring system that factors in both league and cup form should looked into.

CatFromHue

I'm quite happy with how the groups are picked tbh.

Remember even under the old system there were seasons with poxy hard, and easy, groups.

vienne86

The seeding system certainly had a positive effect on the Pro12 this year.

irishbucsfan

I much prefer this system. It rewards league performances and increases the interest there, Glasgow getting their 1st seed spot for example. No longer having teams who are a shadow of their former selves stuck in tier 1 ahead of superior teams like we used to see.

The other thing that needs to be remembered is that the competition is smaller and the weakest teams in it were removed in order to achieve that, tougher groups was always going to be an outcome of that.

vienne86

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I much prefer this system. It rewards league performances and increases the interest there, Glasgow getting their 1st seed spot for example. No longer having teams who are a shadow of their former selves stuck in tier 1 ahead of superior teams like we used to see.

The other thing that needs to be remembered is that the competition is smaller and the weakest teams in it were removed in order to achieve that, tougher groups was always going to be an outcome of that.

I suppose it does mean that the seeding is more related to CURRENT form - e.g. Leinster had a bad season and have paid in the seedings, but if they do well next season, they could be back up in tier 1.

total former

The current system is the best IMO, plus adding in some system of boosting seeding based on cup performance would violate the equality of each league in the seedings.

its_phil

total former wrote: »

The current system is the best IMO, plus adding in some system of boosting seeding based on cup performance would violate the equality of each league in the seedings.

I wouldn't see anything wrong with seeding the Champion. Toulon being second seeds is just too strange.

bilston

its_phil wrote: »

I wouldn't see anything wrong with seeding the Champion. Toulon being second seeds is just too strange.

I wiuld have as top seeds the league winners, the champions and the beaten finalists.

molloyjh

its_phil wrote: »

I wouldn't see anything wrong with seeding the Champion. Toulon being second seeds is just too strange.

They also topped the T14 during the regular season. Stade came 4th. So seeding for them was done on the basis of the knock-out games despite Toulon being by far the better team across the whole season.

Riskymove

bilston wrote: »

I wiuld have as top seeds the league winners, the champions and the beaten finalists.

that might resolve the current issue about 3 into 2 won't go with league runners-up

while I agree that seeding based on domestic leagues is a good idea and makes them more competitive, completely ignoring success in the EPRC is very strange imo.

awec

molloyjh wrote: »

They also topped the T14 during the regular season. Stade came 4th. So seeding for them was done on the basis of the knock-out games despite Toulon being by far the better team across the whole season.

The Premiership is the only league that seeds on the real league position.

It might actually be a better way to do it, now that the final is neutral it would give real incentive to finish first instead of second.

Cookiemunster

awec wrote: »

The Premiership is the only league that seeds on the real league position.

It might actually be a better way to do it, now that the final is neutral it would give real incentive to finish first instead of second.

They only did that last season. They used the play off results this year. Some might say that the reason for this was that Saracens finished 4th this year.......

molloyjh

Riskymove wrote: »

that might resolve the current issue about 3 into 2 won't go with league runners-up

while I agree that seeding based on domestic leagues is a good idea and makes them more competitive, completely ignoring success in the EPRC is very strange imo.

The only possible issue really with bilstons idea is the unlikely situation where a team in the CC final doesn't make Europe domestically, i.e. finishes in the bottom half of their table. Personally I'd only put the winners into tier 1.

Otherwise seed the sides based on league finish as is done at the moment but then tier them based on a combination of league and cup finish. So this season the seeding would be the same:

|T14|AP|Pro12
First Seed|Stade|Saracens|Glasgow
Second Seed|Clermont|Bath|Munster
Third Seed|Toulon|Saints|Ospreys
Fourth Seed|Toulouse|Leicester|Ulster
Fifth Seed|Racing|Exeter|Leinster
Sixth Seed|Oyannax|Wasps|Scarlets
Seventh Seed|-|-|Treviso
Play Off Winner|Bordeaux|-|-


But when creating the tiers you start by looking at seeding and then fill out the remaining places in the tier with the teams from the next seed in order of cup progression (with the exception of the title holders who should be tier 1).

Tier 1|Stade|Saracens|Glasgow|Toulon|Clermont
Tier 2|Bath|Munster|Saints|Ospreys|Leicester
Tier 3|Toulouse|Ulster|Racing|Exeter|Leinster
Tier 4|Oyannax|Wasps|Scarlets|Treviso|Bordeaux


So Stade, Sarries and Glasgow are tiered based on their league finish. Toulon are seed 1 based on their CC title win. The remaining place in tier 1 goes to the team from seed 2 that progressed furthest in the CC last season, i.e. Clermont. Bath and Munster then move to tier 2 as the remaining seed 2 sides.

Saints and Ospreys are up next as 3rd seeds. As Toulon have already been accounted for the fourth seed team that progressed furthest in Europe last season takes the remaining tier 2 slot, i.e. Leicester. That leaves tier 3 to be made up of the remaining seed 4 and all of seed 5. Everyone else goes into tier 4.

That seems like a far more reasonable tiering than what we got this season. Factoring in the limits re the leagues in the top 3 tiers you could end up with pools like below:

|Pool 1|Pool 2|Pool 3|Pool 4|Pool 5
Tier 1|Stade|Saracens|Glasgow|Toulon|Clermont
Tier 2|Bath|Ospreys|Saints|Munster|Leicester
Tier 3|Ulster|Toulouse|Racing|Exeter|Leinster
Tier 4|Oyannax|Wasps|Scarlets|Treviso|Bordeaux


That would seem to be a far more balanced set of pools to me then too. No?

aimee1

molloyjh wrote: »

The only possible issue really with bilstons idea is the unlikely situation where a team in the CC final doesn't make Europe domestically, i.e. finishes in the bottom half of their table. Personally I'd only put the winners into tier 1.

Otherwise seed the sides based on league finish as is done at the moment but then tier them based on a combination of league and cup finish. So this season the seeding would be the same:

|T14|AP|Pro12
First Seed|Stade|Saracens|Glasgow
Second Seed|Clermont|Bath|Munster
Third Seed|Toulon|Saints|Ospreys
Fourth Seed|Toulouse|Leicester|Ulster
Fifth Seed|Racing|Exeter|Leinster
Sixth Seed|Oyannax|Wasps|Scarlets
Seventh Seed|-|-|Treviso
Play Off Winner|Bordeaux|-|-


But when creating the tiers you start by looking at seeding and then fill out the remaining places in the tier with the teams from the next seed in order of cup progression (with the exception of the title holders who should be tier 1).

Tier 1|Stade|Saracens|Glasgow|Toulon|Clermont
Tier 2|Bath|Munster|Saints|Ospreys|Leicester
Tier 3|Toulouse|Ulster|Racing|Exeter|Leinster
Tier 4|Oyannax|Wasps|Scarlets|Treviso|Bordeaux


So Stade, Sarries and Glasgow are tiered based on their league finish. Toulon are seed 1 based on their CC title win. The remaining place in tier 1 goes to the team from seed 2 that progressed furthest in the CC last season, i.e. Clermont. Bath and Munster then move to tier 2 as the remaining seed 2 sides.

Saints and Ospreys are up next as 3rd seeds. As Toulon have already been accounted for the fourth seed team that progressed furthest in Europe last season takes the remaining tier 2 slot, i.e. Leicester. That leaves tier 3 to be made up of the remaining seed 4 and all of seed 5. Everyone else goes into tier 4.

That seems like a far more reasonable tiering than what we got this season. Factoring in the limits re the leagues in the top 3 tiers you could end up with pools like below:

|Pool 1|Pool 2|Pool 3|Pool 4|Pool 5
Tier 1|Stade|Saracens|Glasgow|Toulon|Clermont
Tier 2|Bath|Ospreys|Saints|Munster|Leicester
Tier 3|Ulster|Toulouse|Racing|Exeter|Leinster
Tier 4|Oyannax|Wasps|Scarlets|Treviso|Bordeaux


That would seem to be a far more balanced set of pools to me then too. No?

Stop talking sense

bilston

Are the winners of the Champions Cup guarenteed entry into the following season's competition in the unlikely event they finish outside the top 6 or 7 of their domestic league?

Mc Love

Dont believe so, think its based on your league merit

bilston

bilston wrote: »

Are the winners of the Champions Cup guarenteed entry into the following season's competition in the unlikely event they finish outside the top 6 or 7 of their domestic league?

Nope. No guaranteed places.

Riskymove

Deleted User wrote: »

Nope. No guaranteed places.

it is fairly unlikely to happen though

effectively half of each league qualify