SUMMER WEATHER 2015 -GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD

JCX BXC

I remember 2012 as a terrible summer too, but I do distinctly remember 1 or 2 days where it topped 23c, that hasnt happened yet this summer! It's also a very windy summer!

Xenji

We now have had 167mm worth of rain in Castlebar this month, which will make it the second wettest July we have had since 2005 and with an average temperature of 13.8 will make it the coldest in 10 years, at least the plants are thriving.

coconnellz

Met eireann forecasts totally wrong supposedly be dry today chance of a scattered showers well it never stopped bucketing raining for about half the day!

Speak Now

coconnellz wrote: »

Met eireann forecasts totally wrong supposedly be dry today chance of a scattered showers well it never stopped bucketing raining for about half the day!

What's your unfortunate location?

Oneiric 3

Carnacalla wrote: »

I remember 2012 as a terrible summer too, but I do distinctly remember 1 or 2 days where it topped 23c, that hasnt happened yet this summer! It's also a very windy summer!

Have yet to break even 22c here this summer. And the number of days that have even briefly glanced 20c have been about 3 or 4 at most since the start of June. Have already surpassed July's 2012 rainfall total here this month, but June this year was no where near as wet as June 2012.

mg1982

In summer 2012 it rained every day for about two months and it didnt just rain it downpoured most of the time. I can also remember the summer of 2009 i think where the river beside us burst its banks in july. That never happened before. So yes there was worse summers than this. 2015 is still miserable though.

Zelda247

Here in Kerry I think its rained every day in July...

macnug

coconnellz wrote: »

Met eireann forecasts totally wrong supposedly be dry today chance of a scattered showers well it never stopped bucketing raining for about half the day!

Same here, trying to do some outside painting. I planned to do it today as they said it would be generally dry. Shower every half hour or so. I'm in Laois.

joujoujou

Welcome to Ireland, lads. The one and only country in the world with autumn all year round.

hatrickpatrick

Our weather is worse this year partially because of El Nino, I believe?
So conversely, La Nina years should result in better weather for us?

One interesting possibility which has come up recently is that if El Nino persists through the winter, we might have a better chance of some proper snowfall.

Darwin

Unfortunately MT Cranium is of the opinion that we are more likely to get a stormy winter - see post #809 on this thread, and stormy usually means mild wet muck. I'm a little puzzled though as I would have thought a cooler than normal Atlantic would take the energy out of any storms tracking our way (for example, it's not uncommon to hear about hurricanes getting more organised over the warm waters of the gulf of mexico).
There are clearly other factors beyond SSTs to consider in our case?

Supercell

If that cold pool in the mid atlantic becomes a persistent feature (and there is a lot of evidence to suspect it will) then this summer may be become the new normal, scary as that sounds.

pauldry

Warmest 3 years in arctic
2012
2007
2015

SHtest Summers in Ireland in 21st Century
2012
2007
2015

Sea Ice rebounded in 2013 and 2014

Summer in 2013 and 2014 saw temperatures above 28c in Ireland

Come back sea ice otherwise we have to accomodate low pressure s and prevailing north northwesterlies for you


On that note as sea ice returns in august september I believe we will get warm weather then

maquiladora

Confucius say

Looks like we're gonna get lashed out of it with wind and rain all long weekend too, woohoo, I looooove Ireland!!!

Elmer Blooker

mg1982 wrote: »

In summer 2012 it rained every day for about two months and it didnt just rain it downpoured most of the time. I can also remember the summer of 2009 i think where the river beside us burst its banks in july. That never happened before. So yes there was worse summers than this. 2015 is still miserable though.

Thats right, I remember '09 (will I ever forget!!) we were getting a kitchen extension done and the backyard was turned into a lake .... and the mud!
But what I find incredible is that there were so many bad summers 07-12, 2008 has gone unnoticed, heres a reminder just to cheer yiz up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Irish_flash_floods

pauldry

yeah in fairness when the news said in 1987 after 3 bad summers in a row that we could expect at least 90 per cent of out summers to be wet or windy in future they werent wrong.

i remember that day... some newsreader with huge glasses

whats being muted now is that summers are getting slowly hotter but that the british isles will remain cooler than most other places due to numerous factors

ie jet stream, gulf stream changes, sea temperature rises, more "energetic" low pressure systems, more cloud cover

However by the time most of us are nearly dead the Summers in the British Isles will be a lot warmer too, except in Sligo Town!

ThaitaniumM

A summer storm...interesting.

maquiladora

Looking less windy again on the latest models. The 18Z was a bit of a once off.

gaius c

I'm guessing that this summer is going to be an exceptionally cold one when it comes to the record books?
I'm in late autumn cycling gear in the middle of July!

Schadenfreudia

gaius c wrote: »

I'm guessing that this summer is going to be an exceptionally cold one when it comes to the record books?
I'm in late autumn cycling gear in the middle of July!

The whole year might be - every month in 2015 so far is cooler than the long-term average.

Oneiric 3

The IMT* monthly anomaly for this year. Means are just based around the small climate period of 2007-2010 but it seems reasonably representative of the larger-scale average. The July anom is approx as there is still a couple of days of data to be imputed to complete the picture.




Think it is becoming pretty obvious now that the cooler than average SST's over the nearby Atlantic over the last few months is having some sort of impact on the temperature averages in our wee isle since the start of 2015.



All data used C/O Met Eireann
http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp


*The 'IMT' series is based on the combined mean of 11 synoptic stations on the met.ie network which include 6 inland stations and 5 coastal.

Aerohead

Met Eireann guy on Galway Bay FM this morning and they were asking what could we expect for Ladies day at the races, he said tell the ladies to "go for it" weather should be grand, well surprise surprise it's raining and chilly here

gaius c

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

The whole year might be - every month in 2015 so far is cooler than the long-term average.

Tell me about it. We had the heating on till June. Got to love our BER F rental house!

Schadenfreudia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The IMT* monthly anomaly for this year. Means are just based around the small climate period of 2007-2010 but it seems reasonably representative of the larger-scale average. The July anom is approx as there is still a couple of days of data to be imputed to complete the picture.




Think it is becoming pretty obvious now that the cooler than average SST's over the nearby Atlantic over the last few months is having some sort of impact on the temperature averages in our wee isle since the start of 2015.



All data used C/O Met Eireann
http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp


*The 'IMT' series is based on the combined mean of 11 synoptic stations on the met.ie network which include 6 inland stations and 5 coastal.

One can only pray that that trend continues into November, December, January and February!

Rikand

Laughing at BBC's weather this morning on the news and they were Championing the incoming low pressure as it was going to bring nice warm weather from the Azores.

The UK are looking forward to this storm and a few hundred miles away we are dreading it....

hatrickpatrick

Supercell wrote: »

If that cold pool in the mid atlantic becomes a persistent feature (and there is a lot of evidence to suspect it will) then this summer may be become the new normal, scary as that sounds.

Wouldn't the Azores anticyclone more or less ensure that circulation in the Atlantic doesn't change too much?

mg1982

Whats the story with this area of colder than normal water stuck out in the north atlantic. Thought the seas were meant to be heating up.

Iancar29

mg1982 wrote: »

Whats the story with this area of colder than normal water stuck out in the north atlantic. Thought the seas were meant to be heating up.

Could be many reasons... heres one possible one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

Reckless Abandonment

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Wouldn't the Azores anticyclone more or less ensure that circulation in the Atlantic doesn't change too much?

Could be wrong but don't think the azores high would have any real effect on the Atlantic currents. Lack of sea ice over the last few years might have more to do with it . when the north Atlantic doesn't have enough cold water to help drive the cycle of cold water going south this in turn could slow warm water driving up from the south. all a bit "the day after tomorrow" type stuff but I don't think global warming is going to help bbq sales in this part of the world.