Fancies For Today II

James Bond Junior

qwabercd wrote: »

Aftertimer

Posted it last night as my fancy!

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Plenty of 14s available for TADAANY in the 3 20 Chelmsford a well beaten 9th last time but ran much better than seems at first glance when he was up with the pace until dropping away in the last furlong btn about 7 lengths.

Drops back a furlong now and with a talented 7 lb on board he may be able to lead here and might be hard to catch.

A small ew bet for me (€10 ) ew or and I feel we will get a run for our money from a horse who has been running against better horses than he meets here

Tadaany ran well and while a win would have been nice,getting 5/4 for total stake is acceptable so I wont complain.

Some punters hate Southwell and there is no doubt that fibresand is different to all the other AW tracks and some horses do not act on it at all.

I don't mind betting at Southwell as long as there is evidence the horse i'm backing likes it.However it is very low grade racing and low grade horses are less consistent and form can be unreliable.
The 12 oc race will not take much winning and General Tufto who has won a pile of races here will be fancied by many as will the fav Claude Greenwood who also has winning form here.
I am backing ERTIDAAD ew who has never won a race anywhere and has a trainer still looking for her first winner.

ERTIDAAD has run a couple of good races here over shorter distances and was staying on over 7 furlongs on his last visit and should be good enough to win at around 6-7/1.

The other horse i'm backing is SPICE MILL 1 30 who ran very well lto when 2nd at 25/1 at Chelmsford,has form here and ran well in 3 maidens so is worth a bet at 8 or 9/1 ew with Luke Morris on his back.
Neither of these are ones to lump on but 2 ew singles and a modest ew double might give a return.

Sgt Pepper 64

13.30 Southwell Harwoods Star 9-2
Horse could be running back into some form with a great effort last time over CD. (Finished ahead of the fave Vroom.)
Loves this course and has a 36% strike rate at it. Course figures read 1,2,5,4,4,1,4,1,4,2, and the trainer is in good form as well.

Sgt Pepper 64

14.40 Kempton Calypso Choir 6-1
Returns to course, finished 2nd in class 3 with today’s jockey back in the saddle horse very well handicapped Godwin removes another 5lbs horse should go close repeat effort of the run last time (only beaten by a head in a better handicap) at this course and distance puts the horse bang in there

racso1975

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

4.40 Kempton Calypso Choir 6-1
Returns to course, finished 2nd in class 3 with today’s jockey back in the saddle horse very well handicapped Godwin removes another 5lbs horse should go close repeat effort of the run last time (only beaten by a head in a better handicap) at this course and distance puts the horse bang in there

Hey think thats in the 14-40 race. Also you and zimmer putting up horses in the same race :eek::eek::eek: rock and hard place!!! Best of luck

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

Tadaany ran well and while a win would have been nice,getting 5/4 for total stake is acceptable so I wont complain.

Some punters hate Southwell and there is no doubt that fibresand is different to all the other AW tracks and some horses do not act on it at all.

I don't mind betting at Southwell as long as there is evidence the horse i'm backing likes it.However it is very low grade racing and low grade horses are less consistent and form can be unreliable.
The 12 oc race will not take much winning and General Tufto who has won a pile of races here will be fancied by many as will the fav Claude Greenwood who also has winning form here.
I am backing ERTIDAAD ew who has never won a race anywhere and has a trainer still looking for her first winner.

ERTIDAAD has run a couple of good races here over shorter distances and was staying on over 7 furlongs on his last visit and should be good enough to win at around 6-7/1.

The other horse i'm backing is SPICE MILL 1 30 who ran very well lto when 2nd at 25/1 at Chelmsford,has form here and ran well in 3 maidens so is worth a bet at 8 or 9/1 ew with Luke Morris on his back.
Neither of these are ones to lump on but 2 ew singles and a modest ew double might give a return.

I quite like Claude greenwood, went off too hard last time and has george downing on now and has won over further

i think ERITDAAD has a good chance of a place though

Sgt Pepper 64

Captain Revelation (9-2) goes in the 2:30 at Southwell and in 6 starts has finished either 1st or 2nd CD.
Won there last time out and will be the one to beat

I will probably through it in a accum or lucky15 as well as a good single bet e/w

Sgt Pepper 64

well.... profit made on places, amazing run from the fave and winner from the back

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Tadaany ran well and while a win would have been nice,getting 5/4 for total stake is acceptable so I wont complain.

Some punters hate Southwell and there is no doubt that fibresand is different to all the other AW tracks and some horses do not act on it at all.

I don't mind betting at Southwell as long as there is evidence the horse i'm backing likes it.However it is very low grade racing and low grade horses are less consistent and form can be unreliable.
The 12 oc race will not take much winning and General Tufto who has won a pile of races here will be fancied by many as will the fav Claude Greenwood who also has winning form here.
I am backing ERTIDAAD ew who has never won a race anywhere and has a trainer still looking for her first winner.

ERTIDAAD has run a couple of good races here over shorter distances and was staying on over 7 furlongs on his last visit and should be good enough to win at around 6-7/1.

The other horse i'm backing is SPICE MILL 1 30 who ran very well lto when 2nd at 25/1 at Chelmsford,has form here and ran well in 3 maidens so is worth a bet at 8 or 9/1 ew with Luke Morris on his back.
Neither of these are ones to lump on but 2 ew singles and a modest ew double might give a return.

No joy today,two poor performers in low class races.
Need 1/2 shot "POSH" to win tonight to avoid a whitewash.

Sgt Pepper 64

2pm Newcastle
Gang warfare

first run for a new yard who are in good form and did a great job freshening up Battalion

Loves the surface and big run expected

100/30

Sgt Pepper 64

I will be having a small e/w on allez vic 14:50 ffos las, best horse in the weights, has a stone on the fave, but hasn't really been firing, well I'm hoping today is the day, great horse on the day

zimmermania

CONSTANTINO was very badly hampered last time when had to be snatched up to avoid going out through the running rail when coming with what would have been a winning run,dropped back to 5th losing all momentum before amazingly getting going again to finish an unlucky 2nd behind Forceful Appeal btn 3/4 of a length ( the horse would have won with a clear run but the jockey caused his own trouble by going for a gap that was not really there).

Lightly raced and still improving CONSTANTINO is a very good ew bet with Joe Fanning on board today.

The other race of interest is another fast track race to the Good Friday meeting at Lingfield.
4 in this race have ratings in the 100s and one would imagine they would have the race between them but it is rarely as simple as that.

There is plenty of evidence that Mohican and Oriental Fox are not as good as they were,the top rated horse, Star Storm (107) has not raced further than a mile and a half and we do not know if he stays this far.

The fav, Gang Warfare has won off 95 but has not done particularly well since going up to a mark of 100 or higher and while he does stay he should not be a short priced fav for this race
on the evidence to date.

STEVE ROGERS ew is the one I am backing,2nd to a hot fav last time over 2 miles and was beaten just 3 lengths in the Cesarwich last year at Newmarket so we know he stays well.
Rated 98,has a bit to find with a few of these but won 3 of his 6 on the AW and can continue to improve being lightly enough raced for the Varian stable.

Costantino 13:30 Newcastle
Steve Rogers 14:00 Newcastle

Sgt Pepper 64

one more

2:10 Ludlow Wizard’s Sliabh

Paddy Brennan (Cue Card’s jock) is having a great spell, 35 winners since October! So I will be doing a good e/w at 6-1

Won a bumper at the second attempt and then scored on her hurdles debut at Market Rasen last month,. She stayed on strongly that day, despite not having hurdled very well, and I think this ground will help her.
3 runs, 2 seconds and a first

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

CONSTANTINO was very badly hampered last time when had to be snatched up to avoid going out through the running rail when coming with what would have been a winning run,dropped back to 5th losing all momentum before amazingly getting going again to finish an unlucky 2nd behind Forceful Appeal btn 3/4 of a length ( the horse would have won with a clear run but the jockey caused his own trouble by going for a gap that was not really there).

Lightly raced and still improving CONSTANTINO is a very good ew bet with Joe Fanning on board today.

The other race of interest is another fast track race to the Good Friday meeting at Lingfield.
4 in this race have ratings in the 100s and one would imagine they would have the race between them but it is rarely as simple as that.

There is plenty of evidence that Mohican and Oriental Fox are not as good as they were,the top rated horse, Star Storm (107) has not raced further than a mile and a half and we do not know if he stays this far.

The fav, Gang Warfare has won off 95 but has not done particularly well since going up to a mark of 100 or higher and while he does stay he should not be a short priced fav for this race
on the evidence to date.

STEVE ROGERS ew is the one I am backing,2nd to a hot fav last time over 2 miles and was beaten just 3 lengths in the Cesarwich last year at Newmarket so we know he stays well.
Rated 98,has a bit to find with a few of these but won 3 of his 6 on the AW and can continue to improve being lightly enough raced for the Varian stable.

interesting on gang warfare (my pick) money has come for it as it wasn't fave last night. You are right it hasn't been in good form but I am hoping the new yard move will revitalise it and it does like the surface
the other one I like is the fanning\Johnston Oriental Fox combo.
Deffo stays and won the both the Cesarewitch and the Queen Alexandra at Ascot but ran poorly on the surface last time so i'm unsure

could be an interesting race on a poor day

good luck

Seanachai

zimmermania wrote: »

No joy today,two poor performers in low class races.
Need 1/2 shot "POSH" to win tonight to avoid a whitewash.

Do you think that GLASSALT has potential or was it placing yesterday a fluke?

http://www.irishracing.com/horse?prt=542063

chopperp

Seanachai wrote: »

Do you think that GLASSALT has potential or was it placing yesterday a fluke?

http://www.irishracing.com/horse?prt=542063

Zimmer / Sgt Pepper

I would like your thought on the King George

Cue Card or Thistlecrack ?

ASOT

Constantino done well there; driffted to 8s which was nice. Just need a Steve Rogers place for the e/w double. Cheers Zimmer.

zimmermania

ASOT wrote: »

Constantino done well there; driffted to 8s which was nice. Just need a Steve Rogers place for the e/w double. Cheers Zimmer.

Like myself you have the place double,pays 60 for a tenner ew so not so bad.

zimmermania

Seanachai wrote: »

Do you think that GLASSALT has potential or was it placing yesterday a fluke?

http://www.irishracing.com/horse?prt=542063

I would not get too excited about the form and all the mile races were run in roughly the same time with the exception of the last one which was run in a faster time.
It would be unusual to see two year olds of any quality out so late in the year and most were probably looking for a handicap mark and might not be too busy.the bunch behind were all big outsiders with one exception.

ASOT

zimmermania wrote: »

Like myself you have the place double,pays 60 for a tenner ew so not so bad.

Two nice drifts got 9/1 & 11/2 on the e/w double with 365. Your a gent.

zimmermania

chopperp wrote: »

Zimmer / Sgt Pepper

I would like your thought on the King George

Cue Card or Thistlecrack ?

Don't think the trainer would risk Thistlecrack if he thought he could not win but it is always difficult to know how the novices will perform against their elders until we have more evidence,i seem to recall reading that Ladbrokes (I think) are offering money back as a free bet if Cue Card wins,if this is true it offers some opportunities though a bit of leg work would be involved to get round to a number of offices.
Thistlecrack is a horse I always like and has proved himself an outstanding stayer over hurdles and if I had to bet now I would probably favour him over Cue Card.

NATLOR

zimmermania wrote: »

Don't think the trainer would risk Thistlecrack if he thought he could not win but it is always difficult to know how the novices will perform against their elders until we have more evidence,i seem to recall reading that Ladbrokes (I think) are offering money back as a free bet if Cue Card wins,if this is true it offers some opportunities though a bit of leg would would be involved to get round to a number of offices.
Thistlecrack is a horse I always like and has proved himself an outstanding stayer over hurdles and if I had to bet now I would probably favour him over Cue Card.

Thats correct on the Ladbrokes offer, money back up to €25

http://news.ladbrokes.com/horse-racing/kempton/get-money-back-if-cue-card-wins-the-king-george-vi-chase.html

T and Cs say mobile or tablet bets only

zimmermania

NATLOR wrote: »

Thats correct on the Ladbrokes offer, money back up to €25

http://news.ladbrokes.com/horse-racing/kempton/get-money-back-if-cue-card-wins-the-king-george-vi-chase.html

T and Cs say mobile or tablet bets only

Thanks for that,its not much good to me so as my account is with pp and any strategy around this offer would require the bet to be available in the offices as was often the case.

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

one more

2:10 Ludlow Wizard’s Sliabh

Paddy Brennan (Cue Card’s jock) is having a great spell, 35 winners since October! So I will be doing a good e/w at 6-1

Won a bumper at the second attempt and then scored on her hurdles debut at Market Rasen last month,. She stayed on strongly that day, despite not having hurdled very well, and I think this ground will help her.
3 runs, 2 seconds and a first

well got the place on the main bet so just about covered but the other gambles failed to land, strange day when many top faves were well beaten.
Well done zimmer on your double, nice drifts

Sgt Pepper 64

I notice James Cowley has only one ride tomorrow and that is on valleyofmilan

in the 13:05 bangor. He has ridden him to 4 wins

well handicapped and tries cheekpieces
worth an e/w I reckon 8-1

zimmermania

A few crossbars hit and a bit of profit over the week and I will be hoping to continue in that vein through the xmas period.

INAAM is my fancy to win the 1 20 at Chelmsford,has won 3 races on the AW in good style showing a good turn of foot on each occasion.The fav Curzon Street won very easily last time but is up 9 pounds and may not be able to win off that mark as he will hardly be improving aged 7.

INAAM is one of two 3 year olds in the field (the other being the 2nd fav Street Duel who has not run for 5 months and is having his 1st run for his new trainer I Mohammed and may need the race) and we may not have seen the best of this one yet and he is a strong ew bet at 11/2 at the moment with some 9/2 and 4s available.

My 2nd bet is a win on YASIR in the 1 50,a 2 mile handicap with a few horses in the field who are totally useless.
YASIR has won 8 times on the AW and is 2 from 7 on the course and has won over the c and d and should be able to win this giving weight to Ryan the Giant who I would rate as the danger.

Bandana boy

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

I notice James Cowley has only one ride tomorrow and that is on valleyofmilan

in the 13:05 bangor. He has ridden him to 4 wins

well handicapped and tries cheekpieces
worth an e/w I reckon 8-1

Non Runner

zimmermania

Two others worth backing today to go with INAAM and YASIR,TOP SET 3 30 Wol,has run well enough in his last 3 runs to suggest he can win today's race at around 4/1 and HOLD FIRM 5 oc Wol was badly hampered last time when ridden by an inexperienced rider (would have won)
with Queally in the saddle today he looks a very good ew bet at around 5/1.
In the hope of a real touch with the 4 horses I fancy I am going to have a €3 ew lucky 15 as well as the single bets already struck.

Sgt Pepper 64

16:00 Wolverhampton The Third Man 6-1 (MAXBET e/w)
Been waiting for this one, was very unlucky last time when hampered inside the last furlong in a same level race.
Well suited from this CD and is very well handicapped, slipped right down the weights and I expect it to take advantage. All in all, everything is positive and a very big run expected, should take at least a place

13.05 Bangor Millicent Silver 9-2
1/1 at the course, stays all day, conditions fine and has a great record in class 4 events of 3,2,8 (38%) strike rate with an 29% strike rate career wins, brought down in last race is worth a bet today should go close.


13.50 Chelsmford Yasir 5-2
Completely agree with Zimmer, everything he said plus

4lbs below last winning mark 2 course wins, trip is fine and has an excellent record in class 6 events of 8,5,25 (32%) strike rate, I think the horse should be close to winning this race on these terms.


good luck all and lets bash those bookies!

Chesty08

With a better run & trouble free, could of done better than 3rd. Have to say he'loves be ridden more prominent next time, onevto keep an eye on