Fancies For Today II

zimmermania

INAAM,my selection today and one i backed ew in a single drifted like mad all morning and was hardly ever in the race with a shout held up out the back before running on really strongly to finish a good 3rd.i do not know what the plan is but this fellow has a good bit in hand when they want to go with him,

James Bond Junior

Yassir had a lot to make up with a bad start and being held up. I reckon if he had been able to move up a little earlier he would have won.

zimmermania

Some traffic problems today with my 3 bets but as two were ew bets I am doing ok,i need HOLD FIRM to get placed in the 5 oc Wol at least to get the place lucky 15 landed.

I have backed the horse ew and I am confident of a very good run.

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

16:00 Wolverhampton The Third Man 6-1 (MAXBET e/w)
Been waiting for this one, was very unlucky last time when hampered inside the last furlong in a same level race.
Well suited from this CD and is very well handicapped, slipped right down the weights and I expect it to take advantage. All in all, everything is positive and a very big run expected, should take at least a place

13.05 Bangor Millicent Silver 9-2
1/1 at the course, stays all day, conditions fine and has a great record in class 4 events of 3,2,8 (38%) strike rate with an 29% strike rate career wins, brought down in last race is worth a bet today should go close.


13.50 Chelsmford Yasir 5-2
Completely agree with Zimmer, everything he said plus

4lbs below last winning mark 2 course wins, trip is fine and has an excellent record in class 6 events of 8,5,25 (32%) strike rate, I think the horse should be close to winning this race on these terms.


good luck all and lets bash those bookies!

I'm actually shocked at how bad the run was from my main bet.
Why he sat at the back only he knows, because it takes a special type of horse to do that and win and he isn't special but good enough to attack from the front as previous videos show

Cherry_Cola

Followed you on the lucky 15 run, fingers crossed and thanks again.

tinpib

What do people think happened there with Hold Firm? I was sure he was going to win with 50 yards to go never mind place. The jockey seemed to stop him.

Commentator said it looked like a problem with a rein?

zimmermania

A little unlucky I would say,the reins break early on HOLD FIRM and the jockey lets him go to the rail in front because he cant steer and probably does not want horses at both sides of him,seemingly has the race at his mercy but as horses come alongside well inside the final furlong still well in front 100 yds out until Queally has to stop riding and 4 horses go past close home.
I HAD €25 ew at 7s,3 placed at 10/1 9/4 9/2 going on in a €3 ew lucky 15,when I cool down I will count the cost lol,but that's racing,one who should have won easily gets beat because of a broken rein!!!

zimmermania

If HOLD FIRM held on to win I would have received €740 approx. I will get €105 for the 3 placed horses so it cost me about€630.

Cherry_Cola

zimmermania wrote: »

If HOLD FIRM held on to win I would have received €740 approx. I will get €105 for the 3 placed horses so it cost me about€630.

Ah not so bad then. Paddy was showing me a potential return of 4k with the 3 placed and one to go, was raging :pac:

zimmermania

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

Ah not so bad then. Paddy was showing me a potential return of 4k with the 3 placed and one to go, was raging :pac:

I take some consolation from the fact that my 4 picks today were all close to winning and as luck balances itself out imo as long as I continue to select value bets that in the main run well 2017 may be good just as '16 was and the fact that a horse "is drifting mad on the machine" does not always mean it will not run well makes me feel better about my selection methods.

zimmermania

Don't know if I will bother trying to work out any races in Dundalk today,instead I am backing FIREBIRD FLIER at 16s for the Welsh National on Tuesday,runs well here and I was on when he ran on for 2nd last year and won the Midlands National at Uttox as well.

Loves these long distance races and was trained for this and I was told by a contact that Williams rates his chances highly.

idnkph

Doing a chestnut fire/ he's our music double at dundalk tonight. 2/1 & 5/1

Sgt Pepper 64

SEREFELI Dundalk (obviously!) 7:30 e/w get on it NOW!
15/2
no time for a write up, but its dropped in the weights and skybet is paying 4 places

go each way!

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

SEREFELI Dundalk (obviously!) 7:30 e/w get on it NOW!
15/2
no time for a write up, but its dropped in the weights and skybet is paying 4 places

go each way!

3rd will do for a nice profit although I expected better than pushed out by a 50-1 shot for second!

zimmermania

Christmas over almost and time now to think about getting some kind bookies to cough up towards the cost of it.
HARD TO HANDLE may be underestimated by the bookies in the 1 oc at Wol,won a claimer and a seller for David OMeara recently before being bought out of the seller and now trained by Clare Ellam who has not trained a winner on the flat yet.

HARD TO HANDEL can be backed at a decent price and while the racing post considers the horse a tricky ride and a bit quirky and former trainer OMeara has the more fancied SUNGLIDER in the race it is worth remembering that last may HARD TO HANDEL ran a staying on 2nd. btn a hd to Firmament off a mark of 82 and in june ran another good race off 85 when a staying on 3rd over a mile at Newcastle.

Both races were class 4 affairs and off 76 in a class 5 tomorrow he just has to be backed ew at 15/2-8/1 and if he runs close to his best he will win this and despite the quirks I am happy to have my money on.
David OMeara runs a FRANKEL filly called WISHING TIME in the 2 05 maiden and while backing maiden fillies is the way to the poor house this one may be a bit special.
A small filly who needed some time WISHING TIME is expected to win and is worth backing at 2/1.

zimmermania

I had a look at 3 45 Wol ans it promises to be a tight little handicap where the fav,Mythical Madness seems all the rage,he did me a real turn last time and he could be a horse that will continue to improve.

However the 3rd 4th and 5th horses take him on again tomorrow and they are a little better off at the weights making things interesting,the one I like is EXAMINER who was drawn widest of all and was running on really well to finish despite being drawn in stall 13.

SOLAR DEITY 4th is a decent horse as is PERFECT CRACKER and either could win.

I will probably do 24 tri-casts with the 4 horses mentioned and back EXAMINER ew to come out on top.
I will be at the races in Limerick where EIRI NA CASCE has a good chance in the 3 05.

zimmermania

I did not back EXAMINER last night and now I find he is into 2s with PP and as low as 15/8 in places with 9/4 the best price available and I will not back EXAMINER at that price,SOLAR DEITY AT 11/1 is probably BETTER VALUE EW.

Sgt Pepper 64

I will be having a good e/w on Gold Present in the 1:30 Kempton at 7/2
Henderson has a good record here and won by over 3 lengths on the last run in Nov
stats read 37.5 % win, 62.5 win

1:40 Wincanton
CHAKISTO 5-1 won over hurdles at Uttoxeter in October drops in grade and Davis back in the saddle (1/1)

1:50 wetherby Blaklion 10/3
3rd and travelled well for 3rd in the gold cup and Nigel Twiston Davies is in good form

all e/w and will be doing singles and a lucky 15 with

2:15 Fontwell DISPUTED 3-1
The horse suited from conditions and I feel has more to offer for the current mark, is in top form and should find things easier back in class

good luck all

tinpib

zimmermania wrote: »

Paul Moloney misses a few decent chances for his stable (Evan Williams) at Chepstow to go to Aintree to ride one for Williams in the 12 oc called EVENING HUSH.

A winner on the flat in Ireland and has form with a few who were listed class, EVENING HUSH hacked up on her only run over hurdles when beating a JP McManus French import called LITTERALE CI at Exeter two weeks ago and who takes her on again.
EVENING HUSH won as she liked that day and started at 8/1 while LITTERALE CI went off a well backed 5/2 fav.

I have backed EVENING HUSH at 3/1 and I am hoping the money comes for the McMANUS horse or indeed anything else in the race that may increase the odds.
3 year old fillies are not everyones cup of tea but EVENING HUSH seems as tough as a gelding and should be too good for these fillies.

I will not be shocked if the Williams filly turns out to be pretty good and I have had a decent bet on it

Evening Hush back out tomorrow in Chepstow, 2pm, best price 5/2 second favourite. Any thoughts Zimmer?

Sgt Pepper 64

With Sky paying 6 places in the 3pm at Leopardstown
I will have an e/w on Otago Trail 11/1
Although top weight, V Williams wouldn't sent it unless it stood a chance and has stats of

14 Runs, 6 Wins 9 Places 42.86 Win % 64.29 Place %

zimmermania

tinpib wrote: »

Evening Hush back out tomorrow in Chepstow, 2pm, best price 5/2 second favourite. Any thoughts Zimmer?

I have backed EVENING HUSH and Moloney will not be afraid to attack from the front again and gallop these into the ground,the well touted fav is fancied to run well again but has beaten little imo and may find it difficult to pass EVENING HUSH whose stable should also do well with FIREBIRD FLYER.

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

I have backed EVENING HUSH and Moloney will not be afraid to attack from the front again and gallop these into the ground,the well touted fav is fancied to run well again but has beaten little imo and may find it difficult to pass EVENING HUSH whose stable should also do well with FIREBIRD FLYER.

I'm joining you!

Defi Du Seuil completed his hat-trick in the Triumph Trial at Cheltenham earlier this month and is a smart early-season juvenile. He’d just headed Dino Velvet when that one fell at Cheltenham a month earlier but Alan King’s charge comfortably got off the mark at Sandown next time and has more scope than French import Dolos. All-the-way Aintree winner EVENING HUSH has her fillies’ allowance and she will try and run the finish out of the boys. She’s a real galloper who should be suited by this track and can complete the three-timer.

Bandana boy

zimmermania wrote: »

I have backed EVENING HUSH and Moloney will not be afraid to attack from the front again and gallop these into the ground,the well touted fav is fancied to run well again but has beaten little imo and may find it difficult to pass EVENING HUSH whose stable should also do well with FIREBIRD FLYER.

Apparently a lad in work met Ruby just before xmas , and Ruby tipped up firebird to him , that's about 5th hand info though

Nonoperational

Ruby wouldn't be the most reliable I'd say!!

James Bond Junior

I'm having a very small ew on CALL VINNIE in limerick at 13.35. At 13/2 I reckon it could be a value bet on a small ew after a place in a recent switch to fences in a heavy trammore.

Sgt Pepper 64

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I'm having a very small ew on CALL VINNIE in limerick at 13.35. At 13/2 I reckon it could be a value bet on a small ew after a place in a recent switch to fences in a heavy trammore.

cheers, did place betting

James Bond Junior

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

cheers, did place betting

Nice one.

zimmermania

A bad couple of days,lost a good few quid but not enough to bother me too much as a regular punter,what really has me miffed is the fact that I got strong word for COILLTE AMACH today in plenty of time, I was in the bar in the stand watching the racing in Limerick on tv and just got to the Ladbrokes office on the same floor as the bar in time to see the stalls open and I have no need to tell what happened and a bad day just became worse.

am i bovvered

zimmermania wrote: »

A bad couple of days,lost a good few quid but not enough to bother me too much as a regular punter,what really has me miffed is the fact that I got strong word for COILLTE AMACH today in plenty of time, I was in the bar in the stand watching the racing in Limerick on tv and just got to the Ladbrokes office on the same floor as the bar in time to see the stalls open and I have no need to tell what happened and a bad day just became worse.

I fully realise that you don't need any tips from the likes of me however for any punter it's always good to remind themselves not to fall into the trap of curing the bad day with rushed decisions.
You know your stuff you've had a good year, keep your wits about you and success will continue and I wish you the best of luck.

James Bond Junior

Looking at the form for tomorrow and spotted SNOW FALCON in the 13.50 at leopardstown tomorrow. Still has a tiny bit of value in it for an ew bet at 9/2 on PP.