Fancies For Today II

tinpib

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

Kempton 16:20 BROOKE'S POINT 6-1

I am quite keen on this horse today, seems to have a fair bit going for it and I am surprised it isn't much shorter. Gets an extra 3f today after staying on eye-catchingly well into a close 2nd on handicap debut and this race really could not get much weaker for a 14-runner handicap. Carries bottom-weight and wears cheekpieces for the first time and I think if this horse can't win this race off this mark then there really isn't much hope!

Tipped by Hugh Taylor as well so the price has plummeted.

zimmermania

BOOSHBASH 5 50 and GLEAMING GIRL 6 20.A tenner ew both and a fiver ew double,neither would be bankers but might be worth a modest bet as both have reasonable chances.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

BOOSHBASH 5 50 and GLEAMING GIRL 6 20.A tenner ew both and a fiver ew double,neither would be bankers but might be worth a modest bet as both have reasonable chances.

Two "pass away the time bets" a total waste of money.

zimmermania

BERLUSCA runs in the 7 30 at Chelmsford and is one I was waiting to back since the snow came and the race he was lined up for was abandoned 3 weeks ago.Was rated 61 when OMeara got him and within a year he was rated 82 and had won 4 races.

In January 2015 he won off 82 and won off 80 in December,he won again in may 2016 off 82 and was a close 3rd off 84.

For some reason he was switched from OMeara's to L Mullaney and ran twice for him in sept and October, running badly on both occasions. Back with OMeara in October the horse ran a very good 5th behind Nonios at WOL over 9 and a half furlongs.

His next run was behind Coillte Cailin (his stablemate) who started a short enough price while BERLUSCA went off at 10s.

Danny Tudhope goes to Wol for just this ride and all the signs are that he will take all the beating.I have had a decent ew bet already and the odds are contracting. The stable is flying 33% strike rate in January and the stables last 2 runners have won and I believe the run will continue.

HarshOstrich

zimmermania wrote: »

BERLUSCA runs in the 7 30 at Chelmsford and is one I was waiting to back since the snow came and the race he was lined up for was abandoned 3 weeks ago.Was rated 61 when OMeara got him and within a year he was rated 82 and had won 4 races.

In January 2015 he won off 82 and won off 80 in December,he won again in may 2016 off 82 and was a close 3rd off 84.

For some reason he was switched from OMeara's to L Mullaney and ran twice for him in sept and October, running badly on both occasions. Back with OMeara in October the horse ran a very good 5th behind Nonios at WOL over 9 and a half furlongs.

His next run was behind Coillte Cailin (his stablemate) who started a short enough price while BERLUSCA went off at 10s.

Danny Tudhope goes to Wol for just this ride and all the signs are that he will take all the beating.I have had a decent ew bet already and the odds are contracting. The stable is flying 33% strike rate in January and the stables last 2 runners have won and I believe the run will continue.

What's his mark now ?
Also I have followed this horse closely in the past and he tends to need things to drop right for him, hopefully tomorrow is one of them days.

James Bond Junior

Money must be coming in for Berlusca. Price is falling steadily from 10s to 9/2

zimmermania

HarshOstrich wrote: »

What's his mark now ?
Also I have followed this horse closely in the past and he tends to need things to drop right for him, hopefully tomorrow is one of them days.

The last time he was rated under 80 was in Sept 2014 when he won at Haydock off a mark of 79,the previous time he raced off a mark below the 80s was when he won in 2013 off 78 and tomorrow he races off 79 and whether he wins or loses I could not agree that he "needs things to drop right for him" as that suggests he is a bit quirky and he is not.

It is a competitive handicap and i believe we will get a big run from BERLUSCA but as always there is a risk that we will lose our money but i have the price now all i need is the result.

abarkie

James Bond Junior wrote: »

Money must be coming in for Berlusca. Price is falling steadily from 10s to 9/2

into 4/1 now

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

BERLUSCA runs in the 7 30 at Chelmsford and is one I was waiting to back since the snow came and the race he was lined up for was abandoned 3 weeks ago.Was rated 61 when OMeara got him and within a year he was rated 82 and had won 4 races.

In January 2015 he won off 82 and won off 80 in December,he won again in may 2016 off 82 and was a close 3rd off 84.

For some reason he was switched from OMeara's to L Mullaney and ran twice for him in sept and October, running badly on both occasions. Back with OMeara in October the horse ran a very good 5th behind Nonios at WOL over 9 and a half furlongs.

His next run was behind Coillte Cailin (his stablemate) who started a short enough price while BERLUSCA went off at 10s.

Danny Tudhope goes to Wol for just this ride and all the signs are that he will take all the beating.I have had a decent ew bet already and the odds are contracting. The stable is flying 33% strike rate in January and the stables last 2 runners have won and I believe the run will continue.

I actually like Ravenhoe in that race, beaten by a head at 11-1 last time .
place 2 out of 4 at chelms and fanning onboard I would say he has a real e/w chance but then my racing mojo has deserted me recently.
So much so that a horse I followed off a cliff for 20 odd runs, won at the 22nd attempt the other day..typical!

HarshOstrich

zimmermania wrote: »

The last time he was rated under 80 was in Sept 2014 when he won at Haydock off a mark of 79,the previous time he raced off a mark below the 80s was when he won in 2013 off 78 and tomorrow he races off 79 and whether he wins or loses I could not agree that he "needs things to drop right for him" as that suggests he is a bit quirky and he is not.

It is a competitive handicap and i believe we will get a big run from BERLUSCA but as always there is a risk that we will lose our money but i have the price now all i need is the result.

What I mean is he is always held up and if they go steady he won't win.
I've backed him a lot and have seen him not get the gaps when needed in the past and it's usually game over then.
I think for his last win at wolves pat cosgrave was on him and I thought it was an incredibly good ride because.

I was impressed with bunbury last time
As he was very keen and took the lead up 2f out and nearly lasted home, very rare horses are seen in the finish after being so keen, i hope they front run today.and at the prices now I would go for bunbury

zimmermania

HarshOstrich wrote: »

What I mean is he is always held up and if they go steady he won't win.
I've backed him a lot and have seen him not get the gaps when needed in the past and it's usually game over then.
I think for his last win at wolves pat cosgrave was on him and I thought it was an incredibly good ride because.

I was impressed with bunbury last time
As he was very keen and took the lead up 2f out and nearly lasted home, very rare horses are seen in the finish after being so keen, i hope they front run today.and at the prices now I would go for bunbury

Bunbury is lightly raced and can win races and hold up horses like Berlesca can find trouble in running but his profile suggests he will always be dangerous off a mark under 80,his stable is in great form and OMeara has the horse back in his care for long enough to work his magic.

I find it difficult to understand how you could fancy Bunbury,the last time he met Berlesca he finished a neck in front of him and Burlesca missed the break that day was wide into the straight and finished well.
Tonight Berlusca is 15 lbs!! better off (inc the jockeys claim) with Bunbury and there is no logical reason why he should beat Burlesca.

However we all know that upsets occur and races are not always run as we might think they will be run but I still cannot believe there is any value in backing Bunbury today when the evidence suggests he will find it impossible to beat Berlusca.

HarshOstrich

It was bunburys first run since the summer and was fresh, keen and wide throughout , berlusca had race fitness that day with a pro jockey on board.
I can see berlusca winning obviously but if it gets checked in it's run it will find winning near impossible and more times than not he finds trouble but bunbury could set it up for him if he gos off too fast. Interestingly Shane Kelly rode berlusca last time so he will know she's the main danger and will prob try set a steady pace on bunbury.

Chestnut fire beat the mouse doctor a nose on there meeting 2 runs ago giving away 11 pounds. A few weeks later a 5 pound claimer is on chestnut fire so the mouse doctor only gets 6 pounds.this time the mouse doctor finished 3 and a quarter lengths in front of chestnut fire.
Having a pro jockey can make a big difference

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

Bunbury is lightly raced and can win races and hold up horses like Berlesca can find trouble in running but his profile suggests he will always be dangerous off a mark under 80,his stable is in great form and OMeara has the horse back in his care for long enough to work his magic.

I find it difficult to understand how you could fancy Bunbury,the last time he met Berlesca he finished a neck in front of him and Burlesca missed the break that day was wide into the straight and finished well.
Tonight Berlusca is 15 lbs!! better off (inc the jockeys claim) with Bunbury and there is no logical reason why he should beat Burlesca.

However we all know that upsets occur and races are not always run as we might think they will be run but I still cannot believe there is any value in backing Bunbury today when the evidence suggests he will find it impossible to beat Berlusca.

You dont have to explain yourself Zimmer, people will can decide for themselves what to back or not back.
For what its worth I think its a good bet and many other punters have agreed (now 4-1),
Good luck
(Although Mine really stands a chance! :P)

robbiezero

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

You dont have to explain yourself Zimmer, people will can decide for themselves what to back or not back.
For what its worth I think its a good bet and many other punters have agreed (now 4-1),
Good luck
(Although Mine really stands a chance! :P)

No he doesn't, but it's good when posters give their rationale for their pick as you always do yourself.
Am enjoying the debate, fair play both posters.

Sgt Pepper 64

Just in and see threebagsue running in the 6:25 Chelms. CD winner and done me well in the past, 9-1 e/w

James Bond Junior

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

Just in and see threebagsue running in the 6:25 Chelms. CD winner and done me well in the past, 9-1 e/w

Woohoo! Did a penny bet single as I'm watching this to pass the time. Have it in a ew double with LA VIE EN ROSE in the 19.00 too!

Sgt Pepper 64

James Bond Junior wrote: »

Woohoo! Did a penny bet single as I'm watching this to pass the time. Have it in a ew double with LA VIE EN ROSE in the 19.00 too!

I'm BACK!!!!!!!!!!

good luck, have it in a double with zimmers in the 7:30

Sgt Pepper 64

James Bond Junior wrote: »

Woohoo! Did a penny bet single as I'm watching this to pass the time. Have it in a ew double with LA VIE EN ROSE in the 19.00 too!

nice profit for you! And thanks jumped on that e/w as well

James Bond Junior

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

nice profit for you! And thanks jumped on that e/w as well

I chickened out and cashed out. Kicking myself but still saw a profit!

Marv8

HarshOstrich wrote: »

It was bunburys first run since the summer and was fresh, keen and wide throughout , berlusca had race fitness that day with a pro jockey on board.
I can see berlusca winning obviously but if it gets checked in it's run it will find winning near impossible and more times than not he finds trouble but bunbury could set it up for him if he gos off too fast. Interestingly Shane Kelly rode berlusca last time so he will know she's the main danger and will prob try set a steady pace on bunbury.

Chestnut fire beat the mouse doctor a nose on there meeting 2 runs ago giving away 11 pounds. A few weeks later a 5 pound claimer is on chestnut fire so the mouse doctor only gets 6 pounds.this time the mouse doctor finished 3 and a quarter lengths in front of chestnut fire.
Having a pro jockey can make a big difference

Sickened, was waiting on Bunbury for a nice treble. I think he might have lost that slight bit to win when he got boxed in for the split second.

CH3OH

irish_major wrote: »

Is a certainty next time, got an awful ride. Watch the race, was actually hoping, in running, that it would come 6th as might have gone further under the radar for next time.

Put that one in the tracker folks.

GERALDINE goes again tomorrow in the 1:00 at Lingfield over 7 furlongs
She really should win if avoiding traffic

2/1 favorite

James Bond Junior

FREE STATE ran to win in Dundalk on the 6th of January and runs again tomorrow at 18.00. A 2lb rise shouldn't have too much of an effect and a step up in trip might suit too. At 13/2 I'm having a cautious e/w.

zimmermania

We all know what happened and Bunbury would have to be seen as an unlucky loser and will probably go up a few pounds for it,Berlusca drifted to 10.2 on betfair before the off and out to 7/1 with the bookies which suggests there was little stable confidence in the horse tonight and I am lucky to make a good profit on a horse that was not fancied.

For a holdup horse Tudhope left him see a lot of daylight and I can only conclude tonight was not the plan and I will watch the entries with interest

Aurora1966

The history books will say Bunbury came 2nd and beat Berluska yesterday at Chelmsford, if Hughes tells Kelly to let the handbrake off Bunbury the next time he will win like he did before, its a merry go round like dundalk but on a much larger scale the all weather in England

akelly02

Aurora1966 wrote: »

The history books will say Bunbury came 2nd and beat Berluska yesterday at Chelmsford, if Hughes tells Kelly to let the handbrake off Bunbury the next time he will win like he did before, its a merry go round like dundalk but on a much larger scale the all weather in England

So are you tellin me that bunbury who was beaten a snot had the handbrake on tonight and it will be let off the next time? Lay off the bacardi breezers man

irish_major

CH3OH wrote: »

GERALDINE goes again tomorrow in the 1:00 at Lingfield over 7 furlongs
She really should win if avoiding traffic

2/1 favorite

There's still value in the 7/4, stepping down in class and there's no doubt she would have won the last day with a clear run in a hotter race.

Sgt Pepper 64

One from my new system, 4:05 Muss, The linksman is top weight but a real contender I feel at 6-1 e/w

2 runs 1 win 1 place

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

We all know what happened and Bunbury would have to be seen as an unlucky loser and will probably go up a few pounds for it,Berlusca drifted to 10.2 on betfair before the off and out to 7/1 with the bookies which suggests there was little stable confidence in the horse tonight and I am lucky to make a good profit on a horse that was not fancied.

For a holdup horse Tudhope left him see a lot of daylight and I can only conclude tonight was not the plan and I will watch the entries with interest

BERLUSCA,a syndicate horse is well backed the night before and for the most part of raceday.Then the money comes for another couple of horses and in particular Bunbury and Berlusca drifts alarmingly to the point where I believe my lumpy ew bet is gone.

It would appear that for reasons we do not know confidence in Berlusca vanished the closer we got to the off.We can only speculate as to the reason but very often connections discover which horses are really fancied and which ones are not at the track.I believe this was a very hot class 4 handicap and I would say that 4 or 5 winners will come from the race.

I INTEND TO WATCH IT AGAIN AND AGAIN and I will be watching for any horse that I think was tenderly handled with the future in mind and I feel very fortunate to have won money on the race as Tudhope could have as easily finished 5th as 3rd on the horse and I am also happy that BERLUSCA will not go up in the weights and he will probably win a couple of more class 4s in the near future.The unlucky Bunbury (has never won a class 4) will probably go up 4 lbs and if that's the case winning won't be easy.
Hopefully we will learn from the unusually lengthy discussion and examination of this race and perhaps Boardies might care to nominate the ones to take out of the race and follow in their next 3 or 4 runs in an attempt to make a few quid from our efforts.

HarshOstrich

Lingfield 1.30
Roundabout magic 11/2
On a line through gracious tom
Roundabout magic has the beating of the fav snuggy, with 8 pounds in hand and 1 and quarter lengths ahead.

Roundabout beat gracious tom 1 and a quarter lengths off level weights, a month later snuggy beat gracious tom a neck in receipt of 7 pounds and with roundabout to receive 1 pound today from snuggy he surely has his beating although the wide draw could make things tricky.

Lingfield 2.35 kasbah 9/2
Slowly into stride and took keen hold last time but still finished 2nd in a similar race.performs well at lingfield and from stall 1 I expect a big run

Lingfield 3.10 Roy's legacy 7/2
Been running well here and will be tough to catch, costa Filey is the danger I think.

Singles and e/w treble

HarshOstrich

Just saw the race of bunbury and he's just a big baby, a lot of learning and improvement in him.
He had enough time to pick up the winner I thought, he actually got the lead before the line but his head was up when he got to the line and the winners was down. I think they should let him front run as he might settle better and he would take some stopping.