Fancies For Today II

TrueDub

zimmermania wrote: »

LONG CALL ran away with a race in Hereford a month ago without coming off the bridle and winning hard held.He takes on a few promising types who are well regarded and has to carry a 7 lb penalty for his win.Master Blue Eyes is odds on for this after 3 goodish runs when he went off at 1/1 5/2 and 11/10 and finished 4th 2nd 2nd going down in a photo last time.
I am a bit surprised to see him so short in the betting and he will have a battle on his hands to contain the in-form LONG CALL who showed very little before bolting in when well backed last time and his shrewd trainer,Tony Martin does very well with his raiders.

LONG CALL beat some useful horses with reasonable form in maidens and I do not see him getting beaten,one wonders why he is over for this race unless it is the intention to win impressively and sell him on,whatever the case he is a very good bet in my opinion and will have no trouble with the ground.

For info, Long Call runs in the 15:40 at Ludlow today.

zimmermania

Mellor wrote: »

See as the actual Clovelly bay is just down the road from me, and my favourite beach. It's only right that I follow you on this one

Be careful then as a horse called CLOVELLY runs in the 2 50 at Carlisle today and has little chance of success though that may not stop coincidence punters having a little double.

Will Kennedy has a good book of rides at Carlisle and he can have a very good day.

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

Be careful then as a horse called CLOVELLY runs in the 2 50 at Carlisle today and has little chance of success though that may not stop coincidence punters having a little double.

Will Kennedy has a good book of rides at Carlisle and he can have a very good day.

I like this one. Course winner and the trainer has traveled 292 miles RT , always a good sign

I will also be on Alfie Spinner in the 4:30 Carlise, distance winner, jamie onboard and 420 miles RT, 135 rating and kerry lee horse

2:40 ludlow On demand tizzard horse and only runner today 11/2, distance winner and will be in the mix for sure I think

I will do a e/w lucky 15 with these plus Longcall

Aurora1966

Lucky 15 today:

2.20 Freddies Portrait
3.00 Bracken Brae
3.30 Mise en rose
4.05 Dynamo Walt

2 from 4 yesterday, hoping for better today, if 1st 3 win there will be a healthy cash out option, also if you have 3 shorties picked in your L15, add a complete outsider to it, eventhough you dont fancy it, your potential winnings are always greater, the cash out option made by the computer in a lot of firms will deal you a healthy sum, always worth taking, you just need the 3 winners!!!

Sgt Pepper 64

Aurora1966 wrote: »

Lucky 15 today:

2.20 Freddies Portrait
3.00 Bracken Brae
3.30 Mise en rose
4.05 Dynamo Walt

2 from 4 yesterday, hoping for better today, if 1st 3 win there will be a healthy cash out option, also if you have 3 shorties picked in your L15, add a complete outsider to it, eventhough you dont fancy it, your potential winnings are always greater, the cash out option made by the computer in a lot of firms will deal you a healthy sum, always worth taking, you just need the 3 winners!!!

can you cash out Lucky 15's? Ive never had that option with SKybet

bookies love lucky 15's and accums, they rarely come up!

BorneTobyWilde

Hidden Gem 12-1 5.10

Drops back to 7f here, unlucky 2 races back not to get off mark.
Back into a grade 6 here also.
I think it can grab a place here at least. Has ran decently at the track in its 4 races here.

Aurora1966

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote:

can you cash out Lucky 15's? Ive never had that option with SKybet

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote:

bookies love lucky 15's and accums, they rarely come up!

Yes with Bet365, I did €2 lucky 15.. After 1st winner offer was €52, which is crazy for a 2-1 winner, now the offer is €102, ill make a decision after the next race, I have the Buick horse as my best bet in the lucky 15. I will let you know what the next offer is regardless Sarge

Aurora1966

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote:

can you cash out Lucky 15's? Ive never had that option with SKybet

The cashout is back to 53 euro, if the Walt wins a return of 186. Ill see it out

Sgt Pepper 64

Aurora1966 wrote: »

The cashout is back to 53 euro, if the Walt wins a return of 186. Ill see it out

should make a profit with 2 winners no?

BorneTobyWilde

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Hidden Gem 12-1 5.10

Drops back to 7f here, unlucky 2 races back not to get off mark.
Back into a grade 6 here also.
I think it can grab a place here at least. Has ran decently at the track in its 4 races here.

2nd

BorneTobyWilde

Tigerfish 14-1 2.10 Lingfield

Unlucky when short of room last time out, beating that day by Auric Goldfinger who got first run. It was a length behind Auric Goldfinger 2 races back, when again it was staying on late. This is a weaker contest and I think it will get off the mark here at a good price

14-1

Clareman

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Tigerfish 14-1 2.10 Lingfield

Unlucky when short of room last time out, beating that day by Auric Goldfinger who got first run. It was a length behind Auric Goldfinger 2 races back, when again it was staying on late. This is a weaker contest and I think it will get off the mark here at a good price

14-1

Down to 11s now, it's running in the 2.40 by the way. I'm taking a break from backing at the moment but that horse ticks a lot of boxes for a small ew bet.

Mellor

Aurora1966 wrote: »

also if you have 3 shorties picked in your L15, add a complete outsider to it, eventhough you dont fancy it, your potential winnings are always greater, the cash out option made by the computer in a lot of firms will deal you a healthy sum, always worth taking, you just need the 3 winners!!!

Doesn't the cash out option just hedge the bet and take a cut?

If you have a long short still to run, the payout if higher, but the chances of winning are proportionally lower. So the EV is usually the same.

An exception is if the still to run horse has shortened, in which case the chances are proportionally high, so bumped up payout. But that could happen to long and short odds tbh

Aurora1966 wrote: »

The cashout is back to 53 euro, if the Walt wins a return of 186. Ill see it out

How much does it return for if the last loses, based on two winners?

Sgt Pepper 64

anyone else finding that you dont always get the email notifications of new posts if subscribed? the last emailed update I got was bornetobywildes "2nd" post

racso1975

I get tips one occasional do not receive this rhread anymore even though signed up.

Nonoperational

Does it not explain it in the email? You get one notification then have to visit the page to clear that notification and you get a new one only then.

Seanachai

racso1975 wrote: »

I get tips one occasional do not receive this rhread anymore even though signed up.

You can sign up for daily or weekly updates etc

Sgt Pepper 64

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Tigerfish 14-1 2.10 Lingfield

Unlucky when short of room last time out, beating that day by Auric Goldfinger who got first run. It was a length behind Auric Goldfinger 2 races back, when again it was staying on late. This is a weaker contest and I think it will get off the mark here at a good price

14-1

shortened to 4-1 , well done got 10's, you are keeping the boards in money

BorneTobyWilde

So lucky the line came before it was passed, made for a exciting finish though.

Dollseyes

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

So lucky the line came before it was passed, made for a exciting finish though.

Cheers! Put a €10 e/w on her last night.

Clareman

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

anyone else finding that you dont always get the email notifications of new posts if subscribed? the last emailed update I got was bornetobywildes "2nd" post

I think (and I stress I think) there's a glitch with the notifications that HQ are looking into but I think if you unsubscribe from the thread and then re-subscribe it should work again

BorneTobyWilde

Greyfriarschorista 25-1 2.30

Great record around here , won over this C&D same day last year. It's a long shot , should be some money for it, and a place is possible I feel.

25-1

vandriver

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Greyfriarschorista 25-1 2.30

Great record around here , won over this C&D same day last year. It's a long shot , should be some money for it, and a place is possible I feel.

25-1

17/2 to be placed

sting60

If ever a horse has been crying out for an up in trip it's Tommy Welsh 9/2.Looks well treated of 59 and 3lb claim expect a very big run tonight.

BorneTobyWilde

Asian Wing 9-2 8.00

Carvelas 11-2 8.30

Both of these ran well last time out and close go close to victory here.

BorneTobyWilde

Aprovado 10-1 8.15

One run this year on 27th Jan, didn't run since 30th Sep. It should improve for that recent run as it was very consistent last year. Has good record over this trip.
I like it's EW shot here.

10-1

tinpib

sting60 wrote: »

If ever a horse has been crying out for an up in trip it's Tommy Welsh 9/2.Looks well treated of 59 and 3lb claim expect a very big run tonight.

Brilliant tipping again Sting. I got a wee bit on at 11 on BF.

sting60

sting60 wrote: »

If ever a horse has been crying out for an up in trip it's Tommy Welsh 9/2.Looks well treated of 59 and 3lb claim expect a very big run tonight.

Clap clap clap.

Bravo Sir!

Sgt Pepper 64

sting60 wrote: »

If ever a horse has been crying out for an up in trip it's Tommy Welsh 9/2.Looks well treated of 59 and 3lb claim expect a very big run tonight.

well in fella

chopperp

Sting60

Anything jumping out at you for tomorrow?