Fancies For Today II

zimmermania

pearcider wrote: »

Haha shame about me other picks. The big win will have to wait until another day. I actually got him at 20-1. Backed all day into 12-1 and won very easily. The horse was well handicappedWith the 7 pound claim raced off 70, its lowest ever mark. When I saw the price continue to shorten before the off I knew I was on to a good thing especially from the Dixon yard.

Very well done,when I looked at the horse's form when the race was over and I could see he could win,it only goes to show that if we are to get any financial reward from our hobby we must study the form as much as possible.

zimmermania

Southwell sand is very deep and demanding and not all horses like it,there is no doubt that Hammer Gun likes it very much as he won 4 in a row there this year.

The horse he beat in his last run came out and won the first here today,Hammer Gun has had a break and if ready to go can win the 3 05 today,has run well after a break in the past and I have a few quid ew on at 7s.

zimmermania

Well backed and ran around a bit,might have needed the run and should win again.

akelly02

zimmermania wrote: »

Well backed and ran around a bit,might have needed the run and should win again.

Where did he finish?

zimmermania

akelly02 wrote: »

Where did he finish?

Like a lot of "good" ew bets 4th.

zimmermania

There is a nice listed race at 3 50 in Pontrefact tomorrow and it is a tip in itself that Danny Tudhope gets off an Omeara horse,Three Saints Bay to ride one for Haggas called Learn By Heart who also happens to have the highest rating.

Unless Three Saints Bay (I backed it last when a good priced winner) finds huge improvement he will not threaten Learn By Heart who has run well in a couple of listed events who is guaranteed to run well.

It is my view however the fav, Old Persian trained by C Appleby will be too good for Learn By Heart and I have backed it already at 13/8.Did not beat much last time but won by 4 and 1/2 lengths at Newmarket over a mile.Only 2 horses from that race have run and both were 2nd but were well beaten in 5th and 6th behind Old Persian.

I will try to save my stake by backing Learn By Heart and Lads may be going money back if 2nd to the fav.

zimmermania

Tudhope gets off another Omeara horse in the 5 20 at Pon to ride Royal Brave who has some good form,he might win but he could regret getting off Aleef who has been disappointing but is now looking well handicapped and ran ok last time finishing 5th.

Now rated 85 has won off 92 last season and has been backed a couple of times since,just the type to land a touch I will have a few quid ew at 12/1.

In the 5 10 at Windsor top irish amateur JJ Codd comes over to ride Dakota City for Olly Murphy and though this is his first run for Murphy most firms go 11/10 about the horse which looks poor value to me,two I like are Seventii traind by the shrewd Robert Eddery and around 5/1 who has won over the trip and is a filly who could improve and John Caesar who has not raced further than 10 furlongs and is not guaranteed to stay the mile and a half.

John Caesar is 12/1 and I will take a chance he stays and have a few quid ew.

razorhead

zimmermania wrote: »

There is a nice listed race at 3 50 in Pontrefact tomorrow and it is a tip in itself that Danny Tudhope gets off an Omeara horse,Three Saints Bay to ride one for Haggas called Learn By Heart who also happens to have the highest rating.

Unless Three Saints Bay (I backed it last when a good priced winner) finds huge improvement he will not threaten Learn By Heart who has run well in a couple of listed events who is guaranteed to run well.

It is my view however the fav, Old Persian trained by C Appleby will be too good for Learn By Heart and I have backed it already at 13/8.Did not beat much last time but won by 4 and 1/2 lengths at Newmarket over a mile.Only 2 horses from that race have run and both were 2nd but were well beaten in 5th and 6th behind Old Persian.

I will try to save my stake by backing Learn By Heart and Lads may be going money back if 2nd to the fav.

Three Saints Bay is a non runner now

HarshOstrich

I'm finding it very difficult to find a site that can give me the last advertised industry price before a horse has been withdrawn, can anyone help.

abarkie

HarshOstrich wrote: »

I'm finding it very difficult to find a site that can give me the last advertised industry price before a horse has been withdrawn, can anyone help.

Irishracing.com

Odds compare button on the results page / race result page

HarshOstrich

I used powers for single bets and another bookmaker for a lucky 31 today
Bets placed at 10.05 powers and 10.12 in other bookmaker
Powers are taken a 10c rule 4 on 3 o clock plumpton and the other bookmaker is taken 20 c
Then in the 5.20 pontefract powers are taken 20 and the other bookmaker 30.
I taught all rule 4s would be the same can anyone explain what happened here

abarkie

300 Plumpton

Powers have Orchestrated 15/2 & Pretty reckless 7/2

520 Pontefract

Aleef 8/1 w/d
Hoofalong 15/2 w/d
Tahoo 15/2 n/r
Ziggy Lee 20/1 n/r
Rosina 25/1 n/r

HarshOstrich

abarkie wrote: »

300 Plumpton

Powers have Orchestrated 15/2 & Pretty reckless 7/2

520 Pontefract

Aleef 8/1 w/d
Hoofalong 15/2 w/d
Tahoo 15/2 n/r
Ziggy Lee 20/1 n/r
Rosina 25/1 n/r

Thanks for your help but which bookmaker applied the correct deductions.
Your help is much appreciated.
I was told tahoo was a 10 c reduction and the other 2 withdrawn horses where another 10 each but I don't understand why powers only applied the 20 c rule 4

zimmermania

Old Persian ran very badly today and certainly is not as good as he looked when winning easily on his previous run and the form may not amount to much.

The midweek flat racing will be mostly of a poor quality from now on and I am going to follow David Omeara who has a good number of well handicapped horses for run of the mill races.

It is probable that he will train around 20 winners by the end of the year and he can have a couple tomorrow at Newcastle.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Old Persian ran very badly today and certainly is not as good as he looked when winning easily on his previous run and the form may not amount to much.

The midweek flat racing will be mostly of a poor quality from now on and I am going to follow David Omeara who has a good number of well handicapped horses for run of the mill races.

It is probable that he will train around 20 winners by the end of the year and he can have a couple tomorrow at Newcastle.

Three well backed a third,and two 2nds beaten necks all were ew prices this morning before being well backed,expect more fancied runners from the yard.

BorneTobyWilde

Highland Acclaim 50-1 Pasty Pow 5 places.
3.35

Likes this ground, as do most. But it has 2 wins and a place over this trip on turf this year.
On bottom weight here and has run this 6f in fast times in its two wins, 1m8s and 1m9s , if it can run similar it can get one of those 5 places at 50-1.

zimmermania

I backed Al Qahwa in the 3 35 Don well beaten last couple of runs in competitive sprints and is good enough to feature in today's contest.20 to 1 with Pp

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

I backed Al Qahwa in the 3 35 Don well beaten last couple of runs in competitive sprints and is good enough to feature in today's contest.20 to 1 with Pp

More of the same,out the back looking to have no chance before running on about 4 lengths off the winner without ever threatening to get involved.

Should be dropped a few lbs and can win again.

zimmermania

The Racing Post Trophy looks a real good race at Doncaster and Aiden Obrien will trying to set a record with his 4 entries.

I believe he may have to wait a bit longer because I think Verbal Dexterity is a bit special and Jim Bolger is sure to have him in top form for this Group1. He slaughtered some nice 2 year olds fto,winning by over 9 lengths and reversed placings with Beckford when they last met.

He was very impressive that day and I do not believe he will be beaten,PP is money back 2nd 3r 4th if the fav wins and that makes the the bet safer.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

The Racing Post Trophy looks a real good race at Doncaster and Aiden Obrien will trying to set a record with his 4 entries.

I believe he may have to wait a bit longer because I think Verbal Dexterity is a bit special and Jim Bolger is sure to have him in top form for this Group1. He slaughtered some nice 2 year olds fto,winning by over 9 lengths and reversed placings with Beckford when they last met.

He was very impressive that day and I do not believe he will be beaten,PP is money back 2nd 3r 4th if the fav wins and that makes the the bet safer.

Obrien does it in style,Verbal Dexterity is probably not as good as I and others thought he was,on the bright side I have a few €25 free bets due to the fact that Verbal hung on for 4th.It just goes to show the value in availing of any offers going if we are having a bet.

zimmermania

The Amber Fort is too big a price in the 9 15 at Wol,has a much better chance than his price suggests and is worth an ew punt,money back if 2nd to the jolly in Lads.

zimmermania

Sans Souci Bay was 2nd in a claimer and then won 2 claimers earlier in the year,found life tough in handicaps since until dropped to a seller last time and winning very easily over c d for Richard Hannon.

Bought out of that seller by Scott Dixon and runs for the trainer for the first time today in a claimer at 2 30 at Leic,it is probable that Sans Souci Bay finds it easier to give weight to horses in claimers than trying to win handicaps.

Dixon has kept faith with Hollie Doyle who was on board last time and this could be a wise move as Hollie was on board for the horses 3 wins and obviously gets on very well with the horse.At 3/1 might be a bit of value.

Outlaw Pete

World Record seems good value in the 3:00 @ Nottingham with Franny up.

Dellaguista is all the rage as is dropping in class but on the clock hasn't shown as much as the selection (so far at least) be more weary of Break the Silence.

9/2 not bad price in a race where only four or five have a realistic shout.

zimmermania

Got a welcome winner today when Dentley De Mee just got up to win the 2 20 at Taunton today.Dentley De Mee was clearly the form horse and I had intended have a good bet on the horse but fell victim to the hype about a good flat horse making his debut over hurdles for Paul Nicholls who was odds on with the bookies.

In the end I bottled it and put €50 ew on Dentley De Mee at 11/4 thinking he would drift with all the hype about the Nicholls horse Grand Inquisitor who ran ok to finish 4th and should win races.

I was glad I did back the winner though reducing my bet and am only posting this remind myself and others that form is always preferable to hype and possible potential.

A very good bet runs in the I 20 at Lingfield tomorrow and I will be playing up winnings on Muffri'Ha to repeat last year's eased down win in this race.

There are only 3 in with any kind of chance in this,Pirouette,Promising Run and to a much lesser extent Milesina but Muffri'Ha's form when 1/2 a length behind Decorated Knight in a group 1 in Meydan and the mare won a group 3 at Newmarket last October.

PP is 9/4 about Muffri'Ha and I have backed it already and make it a one of the best bets I have seen for a while.
ps I will try to put up a screenshot on the bet I had today.

redzerdrog

zimmermania wrote: »

Got a welcome winner today when Dentley De Mee just got up to win the 2 20 at Taunton today.Dentley De Mee was clearly the form horse and I had intended have a good bet on the horse but fell victim to the hype about a good flat horse making his debut over hurdles for Paul Nicholls who was odds on with the bookies.

In the end I bottled it and put €50 ew on Dentley De Mee at 11/4 thinking he would drift with all the hype about the Nicholls horse Grand Inquisitor who ran ok to finish 4th and should win races.

I was glad I did back the winner though reducing my bet and am only posting this remind myself and others that form is always preferable to hype and possible potential.

A very good bet runs in the I 20 at Lingfield tomorrow and I will be playing up winnings on Muffri'Ha to repeat last year's eased down win in this race.

There are only 3 in with any kind of chance in this,Pirouette,Promising Run and to a much lesser extent Milesina but Muffri'Ha's form when 1/2 a length behind Decorated Knight in a group 1 in Meydan and the mare won a group 3 at Newmarket last October.

PP is 9/4 about Muffri'Ha and I have backed it already and make it a one of the best bets I have seen for a while.
ps I will try to put up a screenshot on the bet I had today.

Why do you feel the need to constantly after time nobody cares if you had a winner today if it wasn't posted beforehand. It's not as if you are logging every bet you do here and keeping a p&l so why bother aftertiming?

gitzy16v

redzerdrog wrote: »

Why do you feel the need to constantly after time nobody cares if you had a winner today if it wasn't posted beforehand. It's not as if you are logging every bet you do here and keeping a p&l so why bother aftertiming?

Why bother reading it,so fcuking what if Zimmer tells of a few bets he had on before throwing up a few fancies.
Ooh aftertiming,crime of the fcuking century.
This bull**** is what stops posters sharing their thoughts on here,it's hardly like Zimmer just aftertimes and never throws up a few fancies.

redzerdrog

gitzy16v wrote: »

Why bother reading it,so fcuking what if Zimmer tells of a few bets he had on before throwing up a few fancies.
Ooh aftertiming,crime of the fcuking century.
This bull**** is what stops posters sharing their thoughts on here,it's hardly like Zimmer just aftertimes and never throws up a few fancies.

Well I didn't know it was him aftertiming until after I read the post. Although you're right maybe I should have known!

gitzy16v

redzerdrog wrote: »

Well I didn't know it was him aftertiming until after I read the post. Although you're right maybe I should have known!

I just dont get the big issue with aftertiming as long has some fancies posted up also,by all means I myself would be quick to call out a poster who just posted up his winners with nothing else,but it discourages people whove had a nice win,want to share it and now feel confident enough to throw up a couple of fancies because of the win.
Its a validation of your effort in picking a winner and most time it precedes someone now feeling good enough about future picks to share them on here.

Which is what we all want I think,more posters,more tips and more winners.

Are you not happy Zimmer had a winner?
I am,Im always happy hearing somebody got a few quid off the bookies.

redzerdrog

gitzy16v wrote: »

I just dont get the big issue with aftertiming as long has some fancies posted up also,by all means I myself would be quick to call out a poster who just posted up his winners with nothing else,but it discourages people whove had a nice win,want to share it and now feel confident enough to throw up a couple of fancies because of the win.
Its a validation of your effort in picking a winner and most time it precedes someone now feeling good enough about future picks to share them on here.

Which is what we all want I think,more posters,more tips and more winners.

Are you not happy Zimmer had a winner?
I am,Im always happy hearing somebody got a few quid off the bookies.

Couldn't care less if someone has a random winner or not. If people get away with constant aftertiming it derails forums and encourages muppets to try make themselves feel big about imaginary winners they had at big prices. In turn the gullible then follow the spoofers recommendations and turns forums into a nightmare.

Every punter knows it's well let's call it bad etiquette to after time as nobody really gives a sh1t is some random person on the Internet won a couple of hundred quid. If aftertiming was so welcome then it wouldn't be banned from pretty much every charter on every gambling forums and the ones that haven't it banned are generally cess pits for degenerates who haven't a clue

gitzy16v

redzerdrog wrote: »

Couldn't care less if someone has a random winner or not. If people get away with constant aftertiming it derails forums and encourages muppets to try make themselves feel big about imaginary winners they had at big prices. In turn the gullible then follow the spoofers recommendations and turns forums into a nightmare.

Every punter knows it's well let's call it bad etiquette to after time as nobody really gives a sh1t is some random person on the Internet won a couple of hundred quid. If aftertiming was so welcome then it wouldn't be banned from pretty much every charter on every gambling forums and the ones that haven't it banned are generally cess pits for degenerates who haven't a clue

The wheat is quickly separated from the chaff,the spoofers are found out quickly.

Anyone who gambles on any posted tips or fancies without doing their own research deserves to lose their money.

You couldnt care less about regular contributors to this forum having a nice win???
Its supposed to be a community where we can all discuss tips,winners how we like to bet etc a bit less selfishness might help grow this area of boards and we will all benefit from having more fancies being posted ending up in us all winning more money from the bookies.

I know a gambling forum that allows aftertiming and its hugely successful,aftertiming has not become a poison( i do actually agree with most of what you say about it),whats happened is that aftertiming has become a miniscule part of the forum.
Its generally an entry for new posters to brag about a big winner,then funnily enough the same posters throw up a nice few winning tips in the next week because they werent hounded off the forum for aftertiming and now have the confidence to put up tips because there is also no issue with posters who put up losing tips,everyone gets the chance and it takes weeks of watching posters bets before anyone would even think of putting their hard earned on any horse theyve posted up.



So to keep the thread going after my little rant heres a fancy for tomorrow

2.25 Ling Cribs Causeway...unbeaten (2 outta 2) on the AW,good jockey,improving... 7/1

This horse has my money,I wouldnt expect anyone to follow it unless they look into it themselves.