Fancies For Today II

Kettleson

James Delaney wrote: »

2:25 Wincanton.
No 8 Approaching Star ...... a total outsider @80/1. Obv an e/w small bet - hes tipped in the Guardian - its not tipped fot nothing (i hope).

That was an interesting heads up there James. It was 125/1 in places early doors and in to 40/1. Just out of the place money.

Gamebred

Gamebred wrote: »

Why is O'Briens Galileo filly even money over 5 furlongs at Navan today? If that wins you can back it for royal ascot the guineas you name it.

Wasnt placed,any drugs anyone backing a galileo over 5f first time out,shes one to follow over 7f next time,


I would write off all yesterdays form in Navan the front runners Bias was a joke.

sting60

A horse to watch for the summer big races is Ventura Storm.I was really impressed by this son of Zoffany even if it was a four runner race.He will be a different horse on good/fast ground and he is one to watch in a big way.

James Delaney

Gamebred wrote: »

Wasnt placed,any drugs anyone backing a galileo over 5f first time out,shes one to follow over 7f next time,

I would write off all yesterdays form in Navan the front runners Bias was a joke.

I had Misty Millie @Navan yesterday @25/1
RULE 4 applied - 55 in the €.
A little bit sick.

votecounts

Moscow Presents 17:35 Sedgefield @9/4

zimmermania

I have backed Black Truffle 3 times and he got in a bit of trouble,i was not going to get involved again but at 25/1 and my favourite apprentice on board I put a tenner ew on runs at 4 55 Wol,i also backed Clondaw Banker in the 4 30 at Kempton despite having a tip for Montbazon when he fell at Cheltenham and he did not impress last time when he looked out of love with the game

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

I mentioned a horse to look out for in January called Engai who started at 66/1 that I felt was very badly hampered in a Lingfield handicap for about 50 yards and should be backed next time out.

I was happy when I saw the form book did not mention he was hampered at all as I felt that would help his price next time. He then reappeared in a handicap at Southwell over 1 ml 3 (a track he does not act on) and I did not back him. He started at 9/1 set off in front and duly faded beaten 9 lengths.

His next run was at Lingfield in a class 6 handicap and I had a good bet ew at 10s,ridden by a 7lb claiming inexperienced lady jockey he went off at 7/1 and took up the running about 2 out and was in the process of running away from the field off the final bend when a loose horse carried him across the track dropping back to 6th or 7th before he rallied to finish 2nd not beaten very far and a most unlucky loser.(watch the race on ATT)

Engai runs in the 2 30 at Wolverhampton Thursday in a run of the mill class 6 handicap,he won a race last year off 60 and ran well off a little higher and now runs off 50 and is something of a "good thing" barring bad luck.
An added bonus is the fact that Oisin Murphy goes to wol to ride this one and has no other ride.8/1 is available in places and is a huge price for one I think should be fav so I have had a strong ew bet.

Runs again tomorrow in the 7 45 Ling over a more suitable distance under a 3lb penalty,will study the race and comment later.

Had a good look at the race and I am happy to back Engai again,he is not a "good thing" now as there are quite a few in-form horses in the race,however the extra furlong is in Engai's favour and as he is a 10 year old gelding he will not be getting ready for some other race.

There is bound to be a good pace on and that will suit so he is worth backing ew.

zimmermania

One that should be backed is Lovely Memory 6 45 Ling.Suroor's only runner at Ling has been beaten when fav a couple of times and last time was given a very poor ride by Ed Greatrex when keeping the horse in a pocket,getting hampered twice and only switching when the race was all but over when the horse ran on well.
I would prefer if the trip was a furlong or 2 longer but he should have too much class for the this field back from a break.
The fact he has not been out this season does not worry me as Suroor should have him fit and he won after a layoff last season and 3/1 is a good price.

votecounts

Fagan 15:15 Perth @11/8

zimmermania

Clayton has not run on the flat for nearly 2 years and ran 2nd in same race he contests today.
He has a much better chance than would appear at first glance in the 3 40 at Epsom today and is a good bet.

BumperD

zimmermania wrote: »

Clayton has not run on the flat for nearly 2 years and ran 2nd in same race he contests today.
He has a much better chance than would appear at first glance in the 3 40 at Epsom today and is a good bet.

I notice your posting tips and fancies in both threads, think it's confusing. Should be either or. Don't bite my head off

zimmermania

BumperD wrote: »

I notice your posting tips and fancies in both threads, think it's confusing. Should be either or. Don't bite my head off

Perhaps I should not,i fancied the horse myself on the basis that he ran well in it in the past and I felt he could win it.

But I take your point.

Shemale

I have very little interest in the flat but even I know backing any of O Briens before the Guineas is madness

votecounts

Sharpasaknife 15:00 Perth @11/4

The Talking Bread

votecounts wrote: »

Sharpasaknife 15:00 Perth @11/4

had him in lucky 15, extremely disappointing ride. Never looked in it when push came to shove. The ground didn't help but Bravoos was a worthy victor to be fair.

The Talking Bread

Take the F/C on Magic Music Man to beat Nicholls' Black Corton who always seems to find one better in the next (7.00) in Exeter. Better stayer than the latter and in the day thats in it can't ignore! (RIP PRINCE!)

TrueDub

BumperD wrote: »

I notice your posting tips and fancies in both threads, think it's confusing. Should be either or. Don't bite my head off

I don't think this is an issue - Zimmer's usually talking about different horses, with different levels of information.

zimmermania

I have had a few bets that did not work out too well recently,nothing too severe but ew bets finishing 4th or 5th and a few not running up to expectations so a winner or two would be welcome.

The big race at Sandown today offers an unusual bet thanks to Ladbrokes who offer money back as a free bet if 2nd or 3rd to the fav Belardo who is all the rage for this vauable race.7 runners one of which is a pacemaker for Belardo.
There is only 2lbs between the other 6 according to official ratings and there could be value in backing Gabrial in labrokes at 10/1,he has already beaten Breton Rock at level weights and he finished a length and a half behind Belardo giving him 3 lbs so there should not be much between them at level today.

Well suited to the stiff finish at San and acts on the ground Gabrial is worth a bet.

Presented will like the good ground and is worth a few quid ew in the 4 15 at 8/1in Perth and Zante 5/1 is my fancy to win a very weak opener at Plumpton in the 4 50.
I backed it ew as i cannot see it out of the first 3.

Dave147

Fancy Gambit in the last at Sandown. No joy so far today so hoping to finish on a winner. Kingscote and Dascombe don't have that many winners but think this might go close.

Dave147

Well that was a ****ing disaster.

tinodz

Taras Call 7/1 (8:05)

...is my shot today. Was placed in a bunch of races with no chance of winning. Today is the first competitive placement in ages, and will have a good chance.

mailburner

7.05 my coranna 15/8

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Taras Call 7/1 (8:05)

...is my shot today. Was placed in a bunch of races with no chance of winning. Today is the first competitive placement in ages, and will have a good chance.

3rd

zimmermania

8/1 2nd 5/1 winner and one unplaced ensured a good day and I am having 2 bets Saturday.

Theatre Guide had a heavy fall at Cheltenham and missed Aintree to wait for this,will be ok on the ground which will not suit a few of these and if none the worse for the fall will have a good chance at 14 or 16 to 1 for the 4 10 at Sandown in what is always a tough contest over 3 miles 5.
He was runner up in the Hennessy and won a very valuable chase at Kempton and should stay the trip.


Miracle Garden was beaten 2 lengths by Bowson Fred last time but can turn the tables on the much improved Bowson Fred on 8lbs better in the 7 20 at Wolverhampton and I am on at 11/2 ew, drawn out wide,as is Bowson Fred I can see both of these make a dash for the rail as both have some speed.

BumperD

TrueDub wrote: »

BumperD wrote: »

I notice your posting tips and fancies in both threads, think it's confusing. Should be either or. Don't bite my head off

I don't think this is an issue - Zimmer's usually talking about different horses, with different levels of information.

it was the same horse in each instance posted in both. I think it's confusing but I don't mind if none else does. I just like the threads separate as titled. Think they work well and zimmer does keep the place active ( on both). Place would be rather dead without

zimmermania

BumperD wrote: »

it was the same horse in each instance posted in both. I think it's confusing but I don't mind if none else does. I just like the threads separate as titled. Think they work well and zimmer does keep the place active ( on both). Place would be rather dead without

Hi Bumper,i have little desire to turn your legitimate concern re "tips" and "fancies" thread into a boring debate that will annoy the mods so my offering is by way of an explanation and I will leave it at that.

A TIP implies that the person posting has some info that a horse is expected to perform well and is fancied by connections and is a real "trier.

A FANCY is ones opinion that a horse,for a variety of reasons is likely to run well and in the opinion of the poster has a real chance of winning.

The value of both depend on the quality of the info on the one hand and on the ability of the person" fancying" the horse on the other hand to predict the likely outcome of a race.

Ocasionally one receives information that a horse that one fancies is "doing his best"and connections are hopeful and in that case I believe it is ok to post in the TIPS and FANCIES threads.

I prefer solid form chances myself as tips are often 2nd or 3rd hand and are often embellished along the way and in my experience punters bet too heavily on tips simply because they think they are in possession of info that gives them a big edge.The results speak for themselves and tips rarely are better than sold form study and watching re-runs of races.

Sorry if I appear to be too long winded in my reply and to finish on a light note I am waiting for a horse to run who finished 10th of 11 last time and who will win a listed race next time in my opinion and will be worth a serious bet and I know nothing other than what I saw when watching the race over and over again and watching the races that the other 10 horses contested.

Kettleson

Ever the gent Zimmerman. Great tipping again. Many thanks. (Oops, maybe that should be great "fancies".)

sting60

Vroom Vroom Mag is a crazy price at 8/11.First time out of mares races (to feed an ego),no mares allowance,far far better quality than she ever ran against before,beat nothing at Cheltenham even if I fancied Rock on the Moor to be second and if any of that field was in this race they would be any price.Henri Parry Morgan 10/1 will run a big race will love the drying ground and can be a spectacular jumper which you need here.In the first Doubly Clever 16/1 could run a big race with drying conditions to be a major plus.Sire De Grugy 12/1 is a big player at his favourite track with the ground almost certainly gone for UDC and the railway fences to jump SDG will outrun his odds.Anthony 12/1 by Sire of the moment Walk In The Park will love the dryer ground and has dropped back to a workable mark.

The Talking Bread

sting60 wrote: »

Vroom Vroom Mag is a crazy price at 8/11.First time out of mares races (to feed an ego),no mares allowance,far far better quality than she ever ran against before,beat nothing at Cheltenham even if I fancied Rock on the Moor to be second and if any of that field was in this race they would be any price.Henri Parry Morgan 10/1 will run a big race will love the drying ground and can be a spectacular jumper which you need here.In the first Doubly Clever 16/1 could run a big race with drying conditions to be a major plus.Sire De Grugy 12/1 is a big player at his favourite track with the ground almost certainly gone for UDC and the railway fences to jump SDG will outrun his odds.Anthony 12/1 by Sire of the moment Walk In The Park will love the dryer ground and has dropped back to a workable mark.

I wouldnt touch that price on a single! Even though it should win. I threw it in a treble with Voix du Reve and Valseur Lido. Small wager at 10.5/1 Very optimistic.

The Talking Bread

Thistlecrack out of Punchestown. So disappointing. Was really looking forward to see him in the flesh. Hope its just a minor issue,