Fancies For Today II

zimmermania

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

I like the tip but if it does lose, you will make a loss even at 4 or 5-1.
IMO each ways at those prices just arent worth it, unless you are desperate or betting really big

Desperation has nothing to do with it,i mostly back horses who have very solid form chances but are not favourites.I am not a very big punter but I am prepared to have a few hundred on a horse if I think it is value,for the most part my bets would be €50 ew and €25 ew on big priced horses.

We all have different approaches to risk and gambling and I try very hard not to lose and am prepared to bet ew on 2/1 chances if I believe they cannot be unplaced and if one does not win I lose 1/4 of my stake if its placed.
The methodology for me is simple really,rather than have 50 on a 6 or 7/1 chance to win I am happier to divide the stake and have €25 ew.

The problem with most punters is that they try to win large amounts in one go and neglect the opportunity to win smaller amounts on a regular basis and survive the inevitable bad runs.
Do you honestly know anyone who can win the modest sum of €30 per day regularly? In my opinion most punters have no idea of how much they actually invest in bets every week and no idea whatsoever how much they lose in a year.Many punters look on betting as way of spending disposable income every week with the hope of occasional success.

I have no such luxury as my days of getting an income from work are well over and as I enjoy horseracing and bet hundreds (at least) most weeks I reckon I had better be fairly good at it or I will go broke soon enough.
I am not suggesting that I am correct in my approach to betting but it suits me and I invest a good deal of my time studying form and I have survived for more years than I care to remember with modest success.

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

Desperation has nothing to do with it,i mostly back horses who have very solid form chances but are not favourites.I am not a very big punter but I am prepared to have a few hundred on a horse if I think it is value,for the most part my bets would be €50 ew and €25 ew on big priced horses.

We all have different approaches to risk and gambling and I try very hard not to lose and am prepared to bet ew on 2/1 chances if I believe they cannot be unplaced and if one does not win I lose 1/4 of my stake if its placed.
The methodology for me is simple really,rather than have 50 on a 6 or 7/1 chance to win I am happier to divide the stake and have €25 ew.

The problem with most punters is that they try to win large amounts in one go and neglect the opportunity to win smaller amounts on a regular basis and survive the inevitable bad runs.
Do you honestly know anyone who can win the modest sum of €30 per day regularly? In my opinion most punters have no idea of how much they actually invest in bets every week and no idea whatsoever how much they lose in a year.Many punters look on betting as way of spending disposable income every week with the hope of occasional success.

I have no such luxury as my days of getting an income from work are well over and as I enjoy horseracing and bet hundreds (at least) most weeks I reckon I had better be fairly good at it or I will go broke soon enough.
I am not suggesting that I am correct in my approach to betting but it suits me and I invest a good deal of my time studying form and I have survived for more years than I care to remember with modest success.

I am in no way criticizing, just an observation. As you say, if it places, then you do get some money back
Doing Matched Betting (Exploiting the many free bets often offered by bookies and then using an exchange like betfair to back against the same horse or team you backed to win on another site, yes its entirely possible to win 30 euro and more each week, but takes time to find the arbs etc.
Matched Betting encourages the use of a spreadsheet and long term can be very profitable without the rush.
There are many articles out there on a simple google search will find, but it needs a cautious and patient person to do this

Sirtoyou

People really should not see ew as a cover for the win portion of the bet. At current prices in this example Bless the Wings can be bet at 9/2 with 365 1/4 the odds. The place portion of this bet is where the real value lies. At time of posting best price in the Betfair place market is 1.71 pre commission and your getting 2.125 commission free on your place bet with BOG insurance as well. That makes Bless the Wings a cracking ew bet. Treat ew bets as separate bets in the win and place markets. In this market another beautiful example is Ballybroker Bridge 12/1 Boyles 1/5 odds trading 12.5 win and 2.74 place on BF.

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

Josies Orders is all the rage for the XCountry chase in Pun 4 50 today,however Bless the Wings has a chance of beating him on the better ground and with the 9lb turnaround in the weights since they last met.

Very game and better if anything this year Bless the WIngs has been beaten 3 times by Josies Orders at Cheltenham but has an excellent chance of beating his rival as I believe he is better suited to Punchestown than Cheltenham and I presume PP is giving money back if second to the jolly and that makes Bless the Wings an even better bet,ew at around 4s or 5s if possible would be worth taking.

The Guardians Greg Wood backs you up Zimmer

"Josies Orders is odds-on for the La Touche Cup, the big race of the week over the Banks (Cross-Country) Course, and no wonder as he represents the irrepressible cross-country combination of Nina Carberry and Enda Bolger. He is not as far clear of the field on ratings as his price might suggest, however, and Bless The Wings (4.50) is a fair alternative at around 9-2."

zimmermania

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

I am in no way criticizing, just an observation. As you say, if it places, then you do get some money back
Doing Matched Betting (Exploiting the many free bets often offered by bookies and then using an exchange like betfair to back against the same horse or team you backed to win on another site, yes its entirely possible to win 30 euro and more each week, but takes time to find the arbs etc.
Matched Betting encourages the use of a spreadsheet and long term can be very profitable without the rush.
There are many articles out there on a simple google search will find, but it needs a cautious and patient person to do this

You may have misread my post,my reference was to €30 per day not per week
and it was simply stated as an example that most punters I know do not win anything like €30 per day and would have great difficulty achieving such a target,i was not talking about laying on betfair to ensure a small profit regardless of the outcome of a race. I am just suggesting that one can bet ew when conditions are right even on fairly short prices,debate is good and we all may learn from tossing ideas about and make a little money sometimes.

Sgt Pepper 64

3:40 Punchestown Admiral Brian 16/1
good form and should go well and rpr confirms

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=836071#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

You may have misread my post,my reference was to €30 per day not per week
and it was simply stated as an example that most punters I know do not win anything like €30 per day and would have great difficulty achieving such a target,i was not talking about laying on betfair to ensure a small profit regardless of the outcome of a race. I am just suggesting that one can bet ew when conditions are right even on fairly short prices,debate is good and we all may learn from tossing ideas about and make a little money sometimes.

indeed, when I started off, I had a few "experts" telling me ew wasnt worth it at 4 or 5, so I kinda stuck to it but now Ive followed you in!

Good luck, we all want to win money, thats the name of the game

Slattsy

Seeyouallincoppers is one i like today.

Could be wrong, but surely he could have gone elsewhere for a decent pot, but kept for this? Thats my angle!!
Has bits and pieces of good form too behind horses that have gone on to better things.

zimmermania

Back to basics,good racing today, i backed Jacksons Lady,going for a repeat win in the 4 15 Pun 6/1 Lads ew and sure to be primed for JP.

Haines is in top form and one of the races he won has worked out very well,dropping back a couple of furlongs from 2 miles but won over the C and D in the past and can continue his good run despite going up in the weights in the 7 30 Chelmsford 7/2.

Slattsy

Whats the ground at Punch described as lads??

racso1975

So todays money down the toilet bets: all .10c L15 ew

Dollar and Dream 8/1
Jacksonslady 5/1
Sunni May 6/1
Oscar Lantern 14/1

Potential returns: 950

Mr Boss man 25/1
Bright new dawn 11/1
If in doubt 11/1
Ballela Boy 14/1

Potential returns: 7402

Fairly Legal 14/1
proof reader 12/1
ten times better 14/1
Bless the Wings 4/1

Potential returns: 2195

I'd settle for the last one:D

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Whats the ground at Punch described as lads??

good to yielding

sting60

Brian Cooper had about three behind him coming into the straight and walls of horses in front .I'm beginning to think he is not as good as he was once made out to be.

Slattsy

sting60 wrote: »

Brian Cooper had about three behind him coming into the straight and walls of horses in front .I'm beginning to think he is not as good as he was once made out to be.

Well he got Don Cossack home for me in the GC so i'll always be grateful, but yeah i wouldnt go out of my way to be on his mounts.

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

Josies Orders is all the rage for the XCountry chase in Pun 4 50 today,however Bless the Wings has a chance of beating him on the better ground and with the 9lb turnaround in the weights since they last met.

Very game and better if anything this year Bless the WIngs has been beaten 3 times by Josies Orders at Cheltenham but has an excellent chance of beating his rival as I believe he is better suited to Punchestown than Cheltenham and I presume PP is giving money back if second to the jolly and that makes Bless the Wings an even better bet,ew at around 4s or 5s if possible would be worth taking.

Josies orders now a non runner, so BTW is now the clear fave

Slattsy

Ground today at Punchestown anyone? Has it dried up?

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground today at Punchestown anyone? Has it dried up?

yielding all over, so worsened slightly since yesterday

Slattsy

VVM was an unbeleivable price last night if you got it.
MTOY was a lay and half!

Slattsy

The large double i looked at last night came in - VVM and Jers Girl.

Raging i didnt do it when you look at the prices they were and what they won at

zimmermania

A lot of racing today and it may not be easy to find winners.

Heading away for the weekend at 1 oc today and I am hoping to find one or 2 before I go.

The Guineas once again provides a very short fav in Airforce Blue at 3 45,Aiden OBrien,enigmatic as he often is, cast some slight doubt on the ability of Airforce to see out the trip while at the same time telling us he is one of the best horses he has ever trained (he said the same about Australia).

There is no doubt he is a very good horse and perhaps it is foolish to try to find one to beat him.MARCEL is the winner of a group 1 over Doncasters straight mile and if todays race became a bit of a stamina test Marcel,who stays very well would have a decent chance.

I was hoping for softer ground and having checked the Newmarket weather I find that it is a fine sunny day there though there is the possibility of some heavy showers today.Marcel has won on good and good to soft and should be ok on the good to soft good in places going as of now though some rain would be welome to make it a stiffer test.
Pat Smullen is an interesting booking and I have taken the 12/1 ew and I am looking at the "betting without"option as well in the hope that he can outstay the fav.

zimmermania

Just 2 more bets this evening,both short enough for me but nothing else stands out.
Ardea should win the 7 25 at Hexam if he stays upright,way better than this lot 11/8 Lads.
Cais Marcuis looks a "good thing" for the 7 55 Hexam 1/1,i have a good bet on each and a small double.

Slattsy

Went for Stoutes Intimation in the first at Newmarket.

Hard to judge the form of latest win, but judging by her entries over the coming months she's improved over the winter so she could be better than a handicapper. And she's racing just that from what i can see!

Bandana boy

zimmermania wrote: »

Just 2 more bets this evening,both short enough for me but nothing else stands out.
Ardea should win the 7 25 at Hexam if he stays upright,way better than this lot 11/8 Lads.
Cais Marcuis looks a "good thing" for the 7 55 Hexam 1/1,i have a good bet on each and a small double.

Just shy of 5-1 double , nice work

razorhead

Well done Zimmer, thanks

Chesty08

zimmermania wrote: »

Just 2 more bets this evening,both short enough for me but nothing else stands out.
Ardea should win the 7 25 at Hexam if he stays upright,way better than this lot 11/8 Lads.
Cais Marcuis looks a "good thing" for the 7 55 Hexam 1/1,i have a good bet on each and a small double.

Cheers Zimmers done these in a treble. Much appreciated!

NATLOR

zimmermania wrote: »

Just 2 more bets this evening,both short enough for me but nothing else stands out.
Ardea should win the 7 25 at Hexam if he stays upright,way better than this lot 11/8 Lads.
Cais Marcuis looks a "good thing" for the 7 55 Hexam 1/1,i have a good bet on each and a small double.

Great tipping again thanks,put them in a treble with rayvin black at Goodwood who was tipped up in another thread, profitable day thanks to boards posters

BorneTobyWilde

I like Eton Rambler 16-1 in the 2.05
Consistent performer on turf, a lot of all weather horses in this.
I feel he will perform better for its one run this year when 3rd at Kempton.

lil ew

The Talking Bread

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I like Eton Rambler 16-1 in the 2.05
Consistent performer on turf, a lot of all weather horses in this.
I feel he will perform better for its one run this year when 3rd at Kempton.

lil ew

definitely worth an e/w. Significant gamble taking place on Resiliency however so going to follow that one, given he is being dropped in class.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Just 2 more bets this evening,both short enough for me but nothing else stands out.
Ardea should win the 7 25 at Hexam if he stays upright,way better than this lot 11/8 Lads.
Cais Marcuis looks a "good thing" for the 7 55 Hexam 1/1,i have a good bet on each and a small double.

Had a nice dinner out last night and after a bit of a late night celebrating a pretty decent win did not get to look at today's racing in any meaningful way so not having a bet today.

A much quiter night planned tonight so will probably get to study Mondays cards a bit,home tomorrow and hopefully another couple of winners waiting to be backed.

zimmermania

A handicap for amateur riders might not appear to be a race to get too involved with but I think the 6 05 at Kempton is the race that offers the best chance of getting a few quid on Monday.

Brotherly Company trained by Harry Fry runs in his first handicap and put in on a mark of 114 which is very lenient as far as I am concerned.Useful on the flat he has only run 3 times over hurdles and has improved with each run.

Last time out he travelled very well,making smooth headway before winning as he liked from Nine Point Three and Whispering Storm at Exeter on good to soft.

His run before that was very impressive when 3rd behind Banyu and All at Sea beaten 3 and a quarter lengths at Taunton.
The 2nd horse Banyu has come out and won his next two off marks of 124 and 131 and All at Sea came out and won his only race since at and is now rated 130,the 4th horse Jarlath was 9 lengths back and it was 24 lengths back to the 5th with the rest well strung out.
Jarlath has since run well in third so the form is rock solid.

A few horses in the race have bits and pieces of form but are really very moderate and Brotherly Company should win this easily.

I have backed it at 5/2 with PP for decent money and I will probably go in again.

The horse can only improve and looks a real blot on the handicap,an added bonus is the fact that M Legg,a good amateur takes the ride.