Fancies For Today II

zimmermania

NEMORALIA is my best bet today in the 4 20 at Ascot,i have backed this one at 7/1 despite the fact that the filly will be better on good ground.Last sept NEMORALIA beat 19 others at Doncaster so easily,giving to all without even seeing the whip and beating Sharaakah very easily.
Sharaakah came out this week and was 3rd behind Persuasive and Diamond Fields in Ascot.

That run prompted Jeremy Noseda to send the filly to the USA to run in the Breeders Cup,she ran 2nd in a $251,000 prep race on dirt before running in the $630,000 Fillies Mile.
Slowly away under a local jockey she was 15 lengths behind after 2 furlongs,still about 12 lengths at halfway and was more than 4 lengths down 2 out before she ran on really well into a close 3rd flying at the finish.Unusually for the track the ground was officially yielding,which gives some confidence that she will handle the ground today.

She had her next run in a listed race at York in May when she beat Aljuljalah by 6 lengths and Czabo (runs in today's race) by another 6 lengths.

If the drying ground is not too sticky this filly will have too much speed for hot fav Jet Setting who would be better on really soft or heavy ground.
On good or faster this would be a maximum bet for me,the softish ground now means that I have a good bit less on( €200 ew is my bet today) and I may increase that if the ground improves as I believe this is one of the best fillies in the world

mailburner

hard to get away from quiet reflection the way it won last time out, tooks 2/1 earlier 3.40asc

zimmermania

Spent the morning getting on at 11/2 in all the different Ladbroke offices on NEMORALIA (got 7s PP last night)as Lads going 1/4 on the 4 20 and money back if 2nd or 3rd to the fav and it does pay to shop around as yesterdays 4th place on the gold cup made a difference of about 280 to me.

Just one other bet today€50 ew Humphry Bogart 8/1 3 05 Ascot,ran 5th in the Epsom Derby and has run some good races in the past and Ascot may suit him well
and at the price is a bit of value.

BorneTobyWilde

Oh Grace 2.30 25-1

Hard to see past Cuff, but Oh Grace has followed it home twice, 2 lengths and 4 lengths off it. PP are doing 4 places here so I LIKE its EW value at 25-1

I put lil ew

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Spent the morning getting on at 11/2 in all the different Ladbroke offices on NEMORALIA (got 7s PP last night)as Lads going 1/4 on the 4 20 and money back if 2nd or 3rd to the fav and it does pay to shop around as yesterdays 4th place on the gold cup made a difference of about 280 to me.

Just one other bet today€50 ew Humphry Bogart 8/1 3 05 Ascot,ran 5th in the Epsom Derby and has run some good races in the past and Ascot may suit him well
and at the price is a bit of value.

Did not get the best of runs and looked a bit one paced but might have got a place if not boxed in for most of the race.

Sgt Pepper 64

I cant see past Jet Setting in the 4:20, but zimmer is a bit of a legend so Im backing his as well!


Be happy with either horse winning tbh, but a lot more profit with Nemoralia!

Also having a small e/w on the Weld horse Tanaza (23-1), as Weld is hot at the moment with a 40% win rate in the last 2 weeks, including the derby.

good luck all and lets skin the bookies!

mailburner

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

I cant see past Jet Setting in the 4:20, but zimmer is a bit of a legend so Im backing his as well!

me neither but like you I backed nemoralia also :pac:

BorneTobyWilde

Traffic for Nemoralia, was best horse in race. Had it got first run would of won.

Sgt Pepper 64

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Traffic for Nemoralia, was best horse in race. Had it got first run would of won.

made a nice profit though, cheers zimmer

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Spent the morning getting on at 11/2 in all the different Ladbroke offices on NEMORALIA (got 7s PP last night)as Lads going 1/4 on the 4 20 and money back if 2nd or 3rd to the fav and it does pay to shop around as yesterdays 4th place on the gold cup made a difference of about 280 to me.

Just one other bet today€50 ew Humphry Bogart 8/1 3 05 Ascot,ran 5th in the Epsom Derby and has run some good races in the past and Ascot may suit him well
and at the price is a bit of value.

Got a bit of profit most on at 1/4 the odds,the ground was still a little soft and so all in all a reasonable result for me and it just shows that one must shop around for the best value.

Sgt Pepper 64

Rare Rhythm 5pm ascot... single and double with Zimmers tip

Slattsy

Another shocker from Moore there, sweet jesus he's costing Coolmore races left, right and centre.

Imagine if that was Joey? He'd be lambasted!

Sgt Pepper 64

last one tonight and ahem...yep its Moore onboard!

Black out 7:30 Newmarket (NAP) 5-1 (Hannon horse)
Ryan Moore travels for this one ride

achieved the fastest furlong time in a listed race and had plenty up his sleeve despite being slowly away recently at Newbury

vandriver

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

last one tonight and ahem...yep its Moore onboard!

Black out 7:30 Newmarket (NAP) 5-1 (Hannon horse)
Ryan Moore travels for this one ride

achieved the fastest furlong time in a listed race and had plenty up his sleeve despite being slowly away recently at Newbury

Nice one

The Talking Bread

Surely Plenary cannot be beaten in the 8.35 in Newmarket?? Has to break that run of seconds some time and with the 2f drop in trip, he will have much better chance to kick on and not be outstayed in a battle like last time out. The winner was a complete battler in how he got back up and I cant see any other rival showing such stubborness in that field.

Doubling him up with Intisaab (8.45) but doing a single on the former as I think its given.

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

last one tonight and ahem...yep its Moore onboard!

Black out 7:30 Newmarket (NAP) 5-1 (Hannon horse)
Ryan Moore travels for this one ride

achieved the fastest furlong time in a listed race and had plenty up his sleeve despite being slowly away recently at Newbury

well that got me back into the black!

hope some of you got on

zimmermania

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

well that got me back into the black!

hope some of you got on

nice one.

zimmermania

A few thoughts for Saturday at Ascot,whatever happens tomorrow I will finish well in front as I am over1700 in front at the moment and will not have more than 3 hundred on tomorrow as things stand.
The WOKINGHAM over the straight 6 furlongs is a fantastic race,won by a more classier horse these day from the top half of the handicap.

I hope anyone reading this will not think I am insane when I say I am backing a horse whose racing record is as follows.
1run over a mile and a half at York.
5 runs over a mile and a quarter.
1run over a mile and a furlong
12 runs over a mile.
6 runs over 7 furlongs.
1 run over 6 furlongs.
The horse has won several races over 7 furlongs and a mile and last time out was 3rd of 26 to Flash Fire over 7 furlongs at Ascot.
On his only try at 6 furlongs he was 5th of 25 in the Ayr Gold Cup btn a length and a quarter.

With a bit of juice in the ground the stiff 6 furlongs of Ascot will require a horse that stays at least 7 furlongs in my opinion as they will go hard from the start.
Most winners of this race in recent years were drawn in the twenties but I believe that high or low drawn horses can win and there is plenty of pace around the horse and he can be backed at 20s in places but mostly 14s and 16s and I think he will give us a good run and can win.

Oh I almost forgot to give his name, BUCKSTAY,trained by Peter Chappel-Hyam and ridden by Jamie Spencer who excels coming from behind and I will be having between 30 and 50 ew on.
Please do not send for the men in white coats.

zimmermania

SUEDOIS 4 20 Ascot ran the fav MAGICAL MEMORY to 1/2 a length last time and if there is any significant rain in Ascot he will take all the beating,won 3 races in France last year inc a group 3 on good ground but connections feel he is even better on soft.

Available at 14s he is worth backing ew to cause an upset.

The 5 35 is unusual insofar that it is run over 2 miles 5 and 1/2 furlongs and is very often won an NH plodder such as SIMENON or CLONDAW WARRIOR both trained by Mullins,however with nearly £50,000 first prizemoney a better type of animal is now chasing the cash.

One I like is SANDRO BOTTICELLI,an Aiden OBrien cast-off who ran over 2 miles for the first time at Ascot in a group 3 and stayed on from the rear only 4 lengths behind MIZZOU getting closer all the time when unfancied and going off at 25/1,can be backed ew at 11 or 12/1 and could be the surprise package.

SIMENON was a standing dish in the Ascot Gold Cup over the years and has run some excellent races at the course in long distance contests like this one but at 9 years of age he can hardly improve and might be beaten by the younger rival.

Sgt Pepper 64

I actually think its the bookies who are crazy....15:40 Ascot....Astronereus (son of sea the stars) is 20 -1, yet it beat the fave, Eagle Top only a month ago?
In fact eagle top finished 4th in that race (and is now a NR)
http://www.irishracing.com/result?prn=Newbury&prc=028&prd=201605141445

Has finished in the places both times at Ascot, and with PJ Dobbs on board, has never finished worse than 4th.
in fact, their recent history reads, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 1st,

so I will certainly be backing him.

My other bet in the 4:20 is The Tin Man, a worthy thorn against the fave Magical Memory, who is a fine horse.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/horse/881435/the-tin-man

7 runs, 4 wins, including a win at ascot last year I will be having a bet at 7/2edit..looks like Chris Cook, a reliable tipper for the guardian, agrees about the Tin Man

"James Fanshawe can gain his second success in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes with The Tin Man (4.20) on the final day of Royal Ascot. The Newmarket trainer, who bagged this prize five years ago with Society Rock, has produced a succession of talented sprinters including Deacon Blues, a half-brother to The Tin Man.

While the ground appears to be drying out, and with little prospect of significant rain, what moisture remains in the ground should be enough to allow this four‑year‑old to run his race. An improver throughout last season, he was never more impressive than when hacking up in a handicap over this course and distance in October, on ground similar to what he will get here.


He has a couple of lengths to make up on Twilight Son from their running in a Group One here later that month but that was The Tin Man’s first venture into Group company. Moreover, he seems to have sustained his progress, to judge by a Windsor reappearance last month, while Twilight Son was disappointing in his first run back and finds the ground going against him now."







good luck all!

zimmermania

There are a couple of good pots to be won in Down Royal today and it would be easy to miss a good opportunity because of Ascot.

The Magners Ulster Derby (it is a handicap despite the grand title) used to be called the Harp Derby for many years and as one who helped the sponsors with the prizemoney lol over the years in no small way I always felt the race owed me a few bob and I have been lucky from time to time.

I am backing Jim Bolgers STELLAR MASS available at 6/1,raced mostly on soft ground it has taken a while to get rid of its maiden tag.The horse has run many good races without enjoying the best of luck and has finished close enough behind some decent types.
Won a mile and a half maiden last time on good to firm (first time trying the trip) at the Curragh,coming with a smooth run from behind cming home well under hands and heels.
It is hard to know what to make of ZALFANA'S last run and Weld's runner could be a danger if improving for it.

Bolgers horses are running well and backing STELLAR MASS ew should be the best option.

Kovu

I like the look of Naturally Blond in the 16.45 at Gowran, last time the ground may have been a bit fast for him, as well as being turned out quick from the previous 2nd. At 15/2 I think it's worth a bit e/w.

BorneTobyWilde

Battalion 22-1 3.40

Has kept good company and never too far off them. This field is somewhat easier in my opinion. I think it will be challenging and goes really well on this ground

lil ew for me.

mailburner

3.05 maleficient queen 11/2 ew...only for draw i'd have gone bigger/saver on educate

Sgt Pepper 64

zimmermania wrote: »

There are a couple of good pots to be won in Down Royal today and it would be easy to miss a good opportunity because of Ascot.

The Magners Ulster Derby (it is a handicap despite the grand title) used to be called the Harp Derby for many years and as one who helped the sponsors with the prizemoney lol over the years in no small way I always felt the race owed me a few bob and I have been lucky from time to time.

I am backing Jim Bolgers STELLAR MASS available at 6/1,raced mostly on soft ground it has taken a while to get rid of its maiden tag.The horse has run many good races without enjoying the best of luck and has finished close enough behind some decent types.
Won a mile and a half maiden last time on good to firm (first time trying the trip) at the Curragh,coming with a smooth run from behind cming home well under hands and heels.
It is hard to know what to make of ZALFANA'S last run and Weld's runner could be a danger if improving for it.

Bolgers horses are running well and backing STELLAR MASS ew should be the best option.

Lovely on Stellar Mass...thanks so much!

BorneTobyWilde

''Stellar'' is the word !
Top tipping again.

BorneTobyWilde

zimmermania wrote: »

Oh I almost forgot to give his name, BUCKSTAY,trained by Peter Chappel-Hyam and ridden by Jamie Spencer who excels coming from behind and I will be having between 30 and 50 ew on.
Please do not send for the men in white coats.

BUCKSTAY
FUCCKKYAY !
had 14-1
Great again !
PP 6 PLACES

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

SUEDOIS 4 20 Ascot ran the fav MAGICAL MEMORY to 1/2 a length last time and if there is any significant rain in Ascot he will take all the beating,won 3 races in France last year inc a group 3 on good ground but connections feel he is even better on soft.

Available at 14s he is worth backing ew to cause an upset.

The 5 35 is unusual insofar that it is run over 2 miles 5 and 1/2 furlongs and is very often won an NH plodder such as SIMENON or CLONDAW WARRIOR both trained by Mullins,however with nearly £50,000 first prizemoney a better type of animal is now chasing the cash.

One I like is SANDRO BOTTICELLI,an Aiden OBrien cast-off who ran over 2 miles for the first time at Ascot in a group 3 and stayed on from the rear only 4 lengths behind MIZZOU getting closer all the time when unfancied and going off at 25/1,can be backed ew at 11 or 12/1 and could be the surprise package.

SIMENON was a standing dish in the Ascot Gold Cup over the years and has run some excellent races at the course in long distance contests like this one but at 9 years of age he can hardly improve and might be beaten by the younger rival.

SUEDOIS beaten less than half a length in 5th will win when ground turns really soft,BUCKSTAY staying on well and a profit at 14s,SANDRO BOTTICELLI ran well in 5th. STELLAR MASS delivered in style and I was on at 13/2,so another profitable day to finish a great week with competitive racing and particularly large fields to contend with.
Out tonight and will celebrate a little at PP and Ladbrokes expense.

mailburner

3.20hex ashcott boy 10/3

zimmermania

Just 2 bets for today when most of the day will be spent watching the US Open and screaming on Shane as he tries to win his first major.

Jim Bolgers horses are in fine form and though BRONTIDE has a little to find with Burma Star on their running 71 days ago I believe he will find enough.Bolgers horses were not running so well then so improvement can be expected.

This is a very weak handicap and I backed BRONTIDE ew at 4s,it must be a penalty kick that he will be placed so I am calling it a bet to nothing.

My main bet is LUSTROUS who runs in the 3 40 at Pontrefact.
LUSTROUS was having her first run for her current trainer when 6th of 7 behind Journey in a group 3 at Haydock 3 weeks ago,running ok until fading in the last two furlongs beaten 11 lengths.
BARSANTI from the powerful Varian yard is all the rage for this and is currently around evens.

He may well win but LUSTROUS has run some very good races last seaon and will be a threat to all today.
Paddy Power is giving money back as a free bet if 2nd to the fav but is only 15/2 about LUSTROUS so I had a decent bet ew at 12s in Ladbrokes and I am confident of a very good run.