Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

D9Male

In fairness, Valverde has been bringing home the bacon for his team for years. Having a leader like him would set up the retirement fund nicely.

I heard that Gadret is on course to ride Le Tour for Quinverde this year. He is doing the Dauphiné as a prep.

D9Male

MPFG wrote: »

Yes ....I was thinking that maybe the yellow jersey at the first rest day will be worn by a rider who is not the top 4

Kwait, Valverde, Purito, Dan Martin, Allaphillipe or Gilbert


Also I cannot see a big group come in at the end of Pra Loup because of the climb and narrow descent before

According to Velocast gossip Quintana is not liked in the Movistar team ??? He always seems such a pleasant unemotional little guy ???

Yeah agree on Week 1 MJ, but I think Dan Martin will lose too much in the ITT on Day 1 to have a chance of yellow. But Kwiatko, Allaphilippe and Gilbert should have a good first week, and also make up time in the ITT given they are on strong teams.

Lusk_Doyle

MPFG wrote: »

According to Velocast gossip Quintana is not liked in the Movistar team ??? He always seems such a pleasant unemotional little guy ???

Spanish riders in support for doper who showed no remorse shocker.

happytramp

MPFG wrote: »

According to Velocast gossip Quintana is not liked in the Movistar team ??? He always seems such a pleasant unemotional little guy ???

This makes me like him more since I really can't stand Valverde and Movistar in general.

devonp

Alberto Contador

happytramp wrote: »

This makes me like him more since I really can't stand Valverde and Movistar in general.

or the Conquistadors not wanting to help the conquered ?
politics and history blah blah...

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Criterium du Dauphine Spoiler -

Oh my God! Chris Froome was so strong today... If he keeps that form in the tour, it'll be very hard for anyone else to stay with him..

Nibali is one to watch... He is very shrewd & I would say will get mych stronger come July...!

Contador is probably at home watching the Dauphine thinking.. 'Oh sh1t!'

Tejay van Garderan would be an outside bet along with Rui Costa & Valverde....

A

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

Careful of spoilers folks, try not to give away anything that happened in televised races on the day you are posting

Lusk_Doyle

Arequipa wrote: »

Tejay van Garderan would be an outside bet along with Rui Costa & Valverde

The day that Valverde wins a GT ahead of those men is after they have all been injured and forced to withdraw or kicked out of the race. Likewise for the other two. TJ doesn't have it for the three weeks to really challenge for the top stops based on recent years. Costa is a one week race man, a stage winner and maybe top 10 - 15 placer for a GT.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

I was watching the Dauphine on ITV 4 today, bit some of you will probably watch the highlights tonight..

Then we can talk about the signs for Froome, Ninali et al!

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

Arequipa wrote: »

Criterium du Dauphine Spoiler -

Contador is probably at home watching the Dauphine thinking.. 'Oh sh1t!'

I'd say Contador wasn't too worried by what he saw today. An attack 2.5km that took less than 20 seconds out of Teejay etc. is not going to worry him if he has the legs.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Hopefully i can mention the Dauphine now..

I know it is only a warm up for the Tour, but jesus, Froome was impressive yesterday..
When he attacks in the last few kms with that cadence & power, it is hard to see who would keep with him...
Nibali will improve & is probably a better all round bike handler...

But Froome just seems to blow everyone outta the water...
Amazing & hopefully its 'pain y agua!' ...

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Froome was very impressive but at the same time it was 'only' Van Garderen in terms of the one-to-one fight he was blowing away. Valverde & Nibali were presumably a fair bit off their best, though otoh with Froome himself yet to hit his TdF peak. TVG in last year's TdF for instance finished 11 & half minutes behind Nibali. I think Froome right now does deserve to be outright favourite but, even taking out the team time trial, he took a combined 40 seconds or so out of TVG in the whole race, including some helpful bonus seconds. Not a terrifying amount. Quintana for instance if where he wants to be form-wise, could well have lived with him on the slopes. Contador beat him in the Vuelta.
Agreed though he does look very strong.

happytramp

Arequipa wrote: »

Hopefully i can mention the Dauphine now..

I know it is only a warm up for the Tour, but jesus, Froome was impressive yesterday..
When he attacks in the last few kms with that cadence & power, it is hard to see who would keep with him...
Nibali will improve & is probably a better all round bike handler...

But Froome just seems to blow everyone outta the water...
Amazing & hopefully its 'pain y agua!' ...

Froome's one potential weakness seems to be his over reliance on the same plan day in day out. Have his riders set tempo, deliver him to the last few, then launch a blistering attack. Bad weather, early, sporadic attacking, tend to unsettle the plan and leave him isolated and open to being forced to respond to counter attacks. Guys like Contador and Nibali are too wiley not to exploit that, not so sure about Movistar though.

TheBlaaMan

pelevin wrote: »

Froome was very impressive but at the same time it was 'only' Van Garderen in terms of the one-to-one fight he was blowing away. Valverde & Nibali were presumably a fair bit off their best, though otoh with Froome himself yet to hit his TdF peak. TVG in last year's TdF for instance finished 11 & half minutes behind Nibali. I think Froome right now does deserve to be outright favourite but, even taking out the team time trial, he took a combined 40 seconds or so out of TVG in the whole race, including some helpful bonus seconds. Not a terrifying amount. Quintana for instance if where he wants to be form-wise, could well have lived with him on the slopes. Contador beat him in the Vuelta.
Agreed though he does look very strong.

TJvG would have won the Dauphine if there were no time bonuses...... Which would have been a travesty given that he won no stages (TTT aside) and Froome won two

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

TJvG would have won the Dauphine if there were no time bonuses...... Which would have been a travesty given that he won no stages (TTT aside) and Froome won two

Though I don't know about it being a travesty. Contador won the Giro without a stage win, & it was certainly no travesty. You could look for instance at the great stage of the Nibali breakaway where TVG did a fair bit of work driving at the front trying to not lose too much time. Froome from what we could see wasn't willing to do any time at the front, & actually stole some seconds passing the much harder working TVG at the death. If we get too caught up in the supposed moral truth of the race twould seem right to call both the time & energy saved by Froome there as a travesty.

Trojan

In fairness Sky could probably do with a couple of co-leader types, given their recent history of leaders abandoning.

MPFG

Trojan wrote: »

In fairness Sky could probably do with a couple of co-leader types, given their recent history of leaders abandoning.

Porte ??

He will get back into the portacabin....:D

Trojan

Oops, that was meant to be posted here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95892454&postcount=66

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Team Sky look quite strong.. If Porte recovers full form, he would be a great lead out man in the mountains..

As one of you said, Sky's tactic is obvious to all the other teams...
Roche seems to be the last man to sling-shot Froome, but i think Roche looks vulnerable & seems quite heavy for the big climbs(compared to Quintana, Froome, Contador...) In the team time trial, Roche clungbon for dear life(in the Dauphine)

Deignan seems like a more consistent & stronger climber than Roche... He's a real unsung hero Phillip Deignan...

happytramp

Arequipa wrote: »

Deignan seems like a more consistent & stronger climber than Roche... He's a real unsung hero Phillip Deignan...

When it comes to domestique duties possibly but Roche went really well in the Vuelta in 2013 (5th) Maybe it's harder to push yourself to the absolute limit as a domestique when you've been a GC man for so many years.

happytramp

it seems (on paper) the easiest way to disrupt SKY (Froome) would be to go into the Tour with a couple of strong GC men in your team. It's too easy for Sky to set place while Froome watches the other team leaders. Aru would be a great foil for Nibali and leave SKY having to peg back any of his attacks. Likewise the likes of Majka or Kreuziger could do the same for Tinkoff. Movistar seem the best placed right now with Quintanna and Valverde starting but they never seem to get things quite right tactically.

MPFG

happytramp wrote: »

When it comes to domestique duties possibly but Roche went really well in the Vuelta in 2013 (5th) Maybe it's harder to push yourself to the absolute limit as a domestique when you've been a GC man for so many years.

even though I said I would bow out of this argument as lone wolf here...can't let this go

I don;t agree that Roche is not a good dom and not willing to work for a team...just look at who did the lion share of the work in Andalusia, Paris Nice, Catalunya and Romandie for team SKY this year ..Roche ...there every day when others were MIA on occasions...no wonder he is tired ... and that was for 2 different leaders....His work rate and willingness in a dom role is not in question in my book

Also the point i was trying to make re supporting both Irish riders before being accused of mindless 'jingoism' is this is not a competition between Roche & Deignan as many Irish fans seem to be making it....As if Roche is somehow stopping Deignan's selection..I have this argument elsewhere with words like "hope Philip is picked before Roche ".

Deignan will be selected in preference to riders like Nieve or Konig or Lopez ..if selected....He would play a different role to Roche anyways

Nico was tired at the Dauphine ..he is not allowed to be tired ? but Nibali is allowed to pull over if he can't make the end ....so many riders were not ready at the Dauphine...but it has turned into a catalogue of Nico Roches unsuitability ...no one else it seems and that in my book is unfair

Also the TTT at the Dauphine Poels & Stannard blew but Nico who also went too hard early on clung on for dear life....so that became a testament to his unsuitability in TTTs but not the others ???

And I don;t agree Philip Deignan has climbed better that Nico Roche this year...Philip Deignan rode races like ToY and TOC where the competition was less while Roche rode mostly World Tour races

I would say though Deignan as he proved in Yorkshire is a cannier racer ..he is about 7/8KG lighter than Roche and can probably last longer on long climbs ...Roche in form is better at high speed on the shorter steeper climbs like in the Vuelta

I would bring both and used them differently ...Roche as road captain and 3rd/4th wheel in the train depending on the stage

Deignan for the longer climbs in the 3rd week especially

the.red.baron

happytramp wrote: »

it seems (on paper) the easiest way to disrupt SKY (Froome) would be to go into the Tour with a couple of strong GC men in your team. It's too easy for Sky to set place while Froome watches the other team leaders. Aru would be a great foil for Nibali and leave SKY having to peg back any of his attacks. Likewise the likes of Majka or Kreuziger could do the same for Tinkoff. Movistar seem the best placed right now with Quintanna and Valverde starting but they never seem to get things quite right tactically.

Hmmm, so only Team SKY would respond to an attack by another possible GC contender and SKY would be forced to respond? Seems a tad simplistic really. Especially if the aim is to say have Nibali win anyway. If all the teams conspired as a whole against them, then yes this would possibly work. Where would he attack? In the mountains where Froom is going to attack and is the strongest or second strongest anyway? On the flats where anyone who does attack is doomed to be chewed up and spit out. I don't think it's a tactical thing with Movistar, the individuals just fall short when handed the baton, with the plan say for valverde to burn off into the clouds being ruined when he is dropped an left for dead by Froome or Contador. There's only so much tactics can do in that instance

MPFG

I just hope it not the SKY train day in and day out....but I fear it will be

Quintana working with Nibs & Contador to disrupt it ???
Can't see that

But then a Quintana long range attack may do something ...he is very capable of those

Nibali will try something on the cobbles for sure but I don't think he can in the mountains and not pay for it

Maybe Contador might try something on a flat /rolling stage ...if he is behind he will throw the kitchen sink at it .....its win or bust for him

happytramp

the.red.baron wrote: »

Hmmm, so only Team SKY would respond to an attack by another possible GC contender and SKY would be forced to respond? Seems a tad simplistic really.

Well my hypothesis is based purely on the idea of Froome being in yellow and showing an extremely strong desire to have his train set the pace.

Of course i wouldn't expect them to have respond if Contador is leading by some margin and Nibali and Quintana go off the front. The real problem with the sky train is that they literally get lit up and discarded like matches in supporting their team leader. So in other words if Froome were to find himself isolated with two Astana guys in the top 10, in theory they could hit him with the 1,2 combo. Of course Froome and his doms are often the strongest climbers (or very close) so this rarely happens. Honestly I'm just hoping for some sequence of events not to turn the mountain stages of the tour into the sky train show.

Shedite27

Shedite27 wrote: »

Just had a look at how PP are seeing it....

2/1 Quintana
3/1 Froome
4/1 Contador
5/1 Nibali

Froome now 6/4 favorite after Dauphine...

6/4 Froome
3/1 Quintana
4/1 Contador
6/1 Nibali

Lusk_Doyle

happytramp wrote: »

Well my hypothesis is based purely on the idea of Froome being in yellow and showing an extremely strong desire to have his train set the pace.

Of course i wouldn't expect them to have respond if Contador is leading by some margin and Nibali and Quintana go off the front. The real problem with the sky train is that they literally get lit up and discarded like matches in supporting their team leader. So in other words if Froome were to find himself isolated with two Astana guys in the top 10, in theory they could hit him with the 1,2 combo. Of course Froome and his doms are often the strongest climbers (or very close) so this rarely happens. Honestly I'm just hoping for some sequence of events not to turn the mountain stages of the tour into the sky train show.

In theory communism works. In theory.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Dont get me wrong, i admire N Roche.. Its an incredibly tough sport.. To be even chosen to ride with Froome is something else...

Team Sky domestiques give 110% to getting & keeping Froome in yellow..
They will literally ride themselves into the ground to weaken the peleton & set him up..

Do the other team's donestiques show this loyalty & commitment to the GC leader?!

Possibly the teams will have to work together to disrupt sky..

Only a certain number of strong GC riders can isolate Froome; Contador, Nibali, Quintana...?!
Maybe if these guys attack on successive days to wear Froome & Sky down & then if and when he weakens they can compete amoungst themselves...


They dont want a Sky train pulverising the peleton & spitting everyone out the back.. Reminds me of US postal & the Blue Train..

(No connection intended to their use of Peds etc..)

happytramp

Arequipa wrote: »

Do the other team's donestiques show this loyalty & commitment to the GC leader?!

Not that I've ever seen. They seem to take real pride in burying themselves and inflicting as much damage as possible on the riders behind them. There's certainly other riders out there who'll do it but I've not seen such an ingrained mentality on an entire team before.........baring Postal of course but they don't count, or at least the fruits of their efforts didn't I should say

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Then again the World Championships in 2013, made up of 5 Sky riders out of 8 in total, the entire team had abandoned with 100 kms to go. Rob Ellingworth, the team manager said, "“The lads’ attitude was not where it needed to be. To have all of them sat on the team bus with 100km still to go in the race is not what you want to happen.”
The year Wiggins won the TDF, he was seriously on the verge of abandoning whilst in Yellow because he considered his domestique Chris Froome to be riding mutinously!

Not that I'm questioning the general commitment but, adding a touch of Devil's Advocate, there has been a few hiccoughs.

Lusk_Doyle

On the verge of abandoning while in yellow because of a hissy fit? Hardly credible that.

MPFG

If were a top cyclist I would seriously think twice before going to SKY no matter that you have your own mattress , flash gear, good salary and a very good set up with a big chair on a big bus

I'd rather, like the Yates twins to do my own thing ...riding the train not only curtails your ambition but it curtails your chances of riding on your wits, finding chances , making things happen......and if you do get a chance then you are probably too knackered to take it

Can you imagine Tommy Vockleur or Dan Martin doing it...never ...riders who ride on their wits would be suffocated in GTs

I can understand why Philip Diegnan joined SKY...it has brought him back into the World Tour and its very hard to get a contract these days.... but Nico could have gone to alot of teams last year ...I guess he felt that SKY would make him a better rider ...constantly under the pressure to live up to expectations is my take ... not least from his father who talks as if Nico is still a neo pro and its only a matter of time

SKY have smart riders like Stannard & Thomas but we will only see them in a train in the Tour ..pity

D9Male

Based on the Giro last month and last year's Tour, I think Tinkoff and Astana doms are going to be very strong...possibly challenging for the podium. Majka and Fuglsgang are the two I am considering backing at tall prices.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

D9Male wrote: »

Based on the Giro last month and last year's Tour, I think Tinkoff and Astana doms are going to be very strong...possibly challenging for the podium. Majka and Fuglsgang are the two I am considering backing at tall prices.

I'd personally not consider backing them for anything other than stage wins.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

On the verge of abandoning while in yellow because of a hissy fit? Hardly credible that.

It's certainly bizarre but seems to have been verified from within Sky as pretty certainly true. Also puts into perspective the imo ridiculous idea Wiggins is one of the all-time greats. To be an all-time great of such a brutal sport inescapably involves huge & pretty consistent mental toughness but the clear lack of which Wiggins again very visibly showed, & this time on the road, during his 2013 Giro ride. Then Nibali & Wiggins crashed on the same descent, Nibali whilst attacking. Before Nibali's bike had practically stopped sliding from the crash, he had run, grabbed it & was off again. Wiggins by contrast crawled down the mountain, his whole team having to wait over 2 miinutes for him, & basically surrendered then & there in the race that was his huge focus for the year. Obviously he's done great things but I'm just going off on the tangent of him being considered one of the all-time greats.

MPFG

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

On the verge of abandoning while in yellow because of a hissy fit? Hardly credible that.

That wasn't having a hissy fit...he was just having an emotional day ...he lost his Jam CD and CAV ate all his bourbons .....understandable I'd say ...I am surprised he didn't thrash the death star like any respectable superstar would do in the same circumstances

L'Enfer du Nord

I think 'trains' are over rated. I know cycling is a team sport and it's not always easy to separate the individual from the team. But think about it, would the sky train be any use without Froome? Sky as far as I know have only won two Grand Tours. Remember the US postal train? I think their was a Banesto train. Change the team leader an suddenly the train isn't quite so formidable.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »

I think 'trains' are over rated. I know cycling is a team sport and it's not always easy to separate the individual from the team. But think about it, would the sky train be any use without Froome? Sky as far as I know have only won two Grand Tours. Remember the US postal train? I think their was a Banesto train. Change the team leader an suddenly the train isn't quite so formidable.

I don't think anyone doubts that, just as a sprint train isn't much use without someone pretty special to finish it off. Sky I think are generally rightly considered great in physiological terms - their big focus seeming to generally be all about physical improvements to a rider's performance, as again with the motorhome thing now - but very one-dimensional tactically, and seem to have a dependence on feeling in control. Froome seems so powerful physically that the train should be far from essential but to take for example the 2013 Worlds I earlier mentioned, Froome was in the lead group but abandoned because he had no team-mates with him, saying he saw it wasn't going to be his day. Compare that weirdly defeatist attitude to Contador on his own against the Astana train day after day in the Giro this year.

D9Male

Fair enough pelevin, that is how it worked with Majka last year. I just think it is likely that the big squads will have Plan B in case their big guns go sour in the first week. Majka has been told he will have a free role, for instance.

Lusk_Doyle

D9Male wrote: »

Fair enough pelevin, that is how it worked with Majka last year. I just think it is likely that the big squads will have Plan B in case their big guns go sour in the first week. Majka has been told he will have a free role, for instance.

Yea but a free role does not a GC contender make.

Beasty

I've just deleted one post - please do not throw in any comments that may be interpreted as doping speculation or we will have to start handing out cards. There is a sticky that repeats forum rules on such matters

Any questions PM me - do not respond in thread

D9Male

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Yea but a free role does not a GC contender make.

I know that, but it means he is not going to have to hand Contador a wheel until things get really serious in the third week, if at all.

For instance, Quintana had a free role in the 2013 Tour, and that gave him a chance of the podium. He was not called back to help Valverde in the crosswind stage. Contador was given a free role behind Leipheimer in the 2007 Tour and he won it. Same story with Aru (behind Scarponi) in the Giro last year.

My point is that I think Majka and Fuglsgang are not far behind the Big 4. And I think they will very much be live Plan B's (or is it Plans B?) for their team.

Interesting to see how Fuglsgang climbs in Suisse today, by the way. And Pinot.

MPFG

I don;t really see Majka & Fuglsang 'not that far' behind the big 4


I think those positions are more likely to be filled with Pinot, Bardet ,TJVG, Valverde,Purito, Mollema, Talansky/Dan Martin, Porte ...riders with a batter pedigree and who are also riding as team leaders...(well not sure who Cannondale's leader will be)

Maybe I haven't seen these great performances this year that warrant these labels for Majka & Fuglsang

D9Male

That is a fair enough opinion. And I would admit that the likelihood is that you are right and these lads will be out with the washing. But I have a sneaky feeling based on what I have seen in the past 12 months.

I think Majka was the second best climber in last season's Tour and he has been absolutely monstrous in the first few stages in Suisse. Working like a dog for Sagan. Also last season he finished 6th in the Giro and won Pologne, so I think he has a good chance of winning a GT in the next few years. He is only 25 so he is clearly still improving.

Fuglsgang is a little bit more difficult to justify. He rode very strongly in support of Nibali in Romandie earlier this season. And he cliimbed very well in Paris Nice. He was also a superb domestique for Nibali in the Tour last year, including in the cobbled stage. Last year he sacrificed GC ambitions for Nibali, but the previous year he finished 7th in GC. So I don't think it is a wild prediction to say he has a chance of being on the podium.

I would not be surprised to see him respond to the Astana system in a similar way to the way in which Landa took a big step forward in the Giro.

MPFG

Well I suppose you have to go with your feelings ...and who knows maybe you will be right

If cycling is one thing ...its unpredictable


Maybe Fuglsang is a good bet for a top 5 to 10 then ??

Majka I think will be brought into work very hard for Contador who will demand as much as SKY and his team are not on the whole that good in the mountains so it means Majka will have to work his socks off

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

If things did go in a certain way, not too odd to see Majka doing something similar to Landa in the Giro all right. Is Fuglsang that much of a mountain goat though?

MPFG

Sorry ...no way is Rafa Majka going to be2nd on GC in the Tour as Landa was in the Giro...Landa also won 2 stages and was better than at Contador at climbing if you exclude TT results

Quintana , Nibali, Froome, Contador , TjVG, Pinot, Bardet, Purito, Valverde, Costa, Martin, Talansky, Yates, Hesjedal, Kreuziger , Barguil, Mollema, Kelderman, Uran, Porte, Thomas, etc will see to that

Majka won 2 stages last year in a depleted field where loads of the favourites had crashed and withdrawn or continued on not at their best

And he went around for the first half of the race sitting at the back not working so he was fresher than anyone when he won the stages in the final week .....I don't know where this view that Rafa Majka is the second coming has come from...he is a good climber like about a dozen other guys but 2nd on GC in the Tour is really pushing it.....

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

After

Froome / Contador / Nibali/ Quintana/

Who would be outside bets or 2nd tier contenders?!

Maybe

Landa/Majeika/Aru/Pinot/Bardet?!

A

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

Majka won 2 stages last year in a depleted field where loads of the favourites had crashed and withdrawn or continued on not at their best

Why does everybody keep harping back to 'depleted field...favourites crashed out...or not at their best'? Those who won something did so in a race where Contador and Froome couldn't finish it, what counts is they started it. They nearly deserve more credit for winning under the circumstances than if Contador and Froome had continued on and everything had been dandy.

hinault

Arequipa wrote: »

After

Froome / Contador / Nibali/ Quintana/

Who would be outside bets or 2nd tier contenders?!

Maybe

Landa/Majeika/Aru/Pinot/Bardet?!

A

Landa had a great Giro.

Geraint Thomas? Pierre Rolland? Adam Talansky?