Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

Roquentin

Vincenzo Nibali

should be very interesting

MPFG

Ah Brian? you are suffering from the age old cycling fan's dilemma ...a rider is only as good as his last race

Having said that ...Contador won't go down (no pun intended) easily ...he will fight to the end..so a good show is in store

I guess all the big 4 have weaknesses and a clever team will know & exploit that

Koobcam

Vincenzo Nibali

L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »

Hard to say which sponsors value more, a stage win or an anonymous top ten. Given the sport is all about exposing the jersey the only value in an anonymous top ten must be pro tour points. Every years there's a guy in the top ten that you barely see in three weeks.

Dan would definitely be better off hunting stages, he usually has a bad day or two in a three week tour and ends up outside the top ten anyway.

I reckon the anonymous top 10 guy is quite valuable for sponsors, since he's likely to be on TV most days-making the top 10 means making the initial selection on most mountain stages (before being dropped by the contenders for victory). Nico Roche was always hanging about in the leading group in tours gone by when he was with Ag2R, so always lots of shots of that jersey, even if it was at the back of the front group.

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

Ah Brian? you are suffering from the age old cycling fan's dilemma ...a rider is only as good as his last race

Having said that ...Contador won't go down (no pun intended) easily ...he will fight to the end..so a good show is in store

I guess all the big 4 have weaknesses and a clever team will know & exploit that

I'm judging Bertie on the last 8 years!

MPFG

Brian? wrote: »

I'm judging Bertie on the last 8 years!

OK...what I meant was I think Contador is tired based on the Giro and may not win ...... not based on his ability or desire

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

Froome’s just been told he can’t live in his motor home. I mean that’s it for me, he’ll lose based on not being able to avail of this marginal gain…...:rolleyes:

MPFG

YeahOK wrote: »

Froome’s just been told he can’t live in his motor home. I mean that’s it for me, he’ll lose based on not being able to avail of this marginal gain…...:rolleyes:

Since he won in 2013 without a motor home and has never used a motor home in a Grand Tour ...hardly means he will lose not to have one now

No motor home versus having ridden a hard Giro are hardly on a par :rolleyes::rolleyes:

D9Male

pelevin wrote: »

I know they've tried to change the make-up of the Points jersey this year to prevent it being a foregone conclusion for Sagan, especially boosting the points for stage winners. Given the incredible year Kristoff's had, & by contrast despite Tour of California, the disappointing year for Sagan, I'd have thought Kristoff could be in with a real shout of that, and much better than the bookies odds reflect. He's still nothing like the climber Sagan can be though so we'll see how that reflects.

D9Male wrote: »

Interesting. Problem is the profiles suit Sagan more than Kristoff, with so many uphill finishes. In fact, I think Valverde would be a bet if they bet each way on green. He'll surely be 33/1 or more and so few stages will mean Cav and Kittel are out of contention.

Looking at the rules again, I think you are right pelevin. I am wrong.

Let's just say there is a "top" sprinter who wins 3 of the Category 1 stages and finishes 2nd in two....assume other one goes to break.

They will get 210 points for that.

And let's say that Sagan gets two 3rd places, two 4th places and a 5th place in those stages.

Sagan will get 92 points for that.

Now let's look at the medium difficulty stages (Mur x 2, cobbles, Rodez, Mende and Gap. Even if Sagan was to get two wins, a second and a third from that, it doesn't net him a massive pile.

Sagan would only get 91 points for that.

So it is likely that Sagan will have to make up around 30 points on the strongest of his adversaries in the intermediates. And given that in this scenario the dominant sprinter may actually go for green, he will be losing points in a lot of scenarios, when Cavendish sprints the intermediate for (say) 5th and Sagan maybe gets 6th.

Of course, if Cav, Kittel and Kristoff share the wins or if Kittel dominates but doesn't go for green, Sagan will be the most likely winner of the jersey. But I would think that Kristoff or Cavendish will win it, not Sagan.

MPFG

I hope Kittel can get some good form as then it can be a real battle between

Cav, Kittel, Sagan, Kristoff, Greipel & maybe Bouhanni

Shedite27

MPFG wrote: »

I hope Kittel can get some good form as then it can be a real battle between

Cav, Kittel, Sagan, Kristoff, Greipel & maybe Bouhanni

I never rated Bouhanni, but he's had some good results this season, beating a few of the others in head to head sprints. Will be interesting to see if he can contend with them in Le Tour or whether the big boys will peak again.

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

Simon Yates 150/1 for a podium finish, worth a euro surely....:)

Daroxtar

Is Dagenkolb not taking part? I'd surely throw him into the mix for a few stage wins.

D9Male

Yeah, if Kittel doesn't line up for the race, he will be Giant Alpecin's number 1. Last I hear Kittel is not sure to line up, and if he does, he expects not to be on form for the first week.

MPFG

Of course I forgot a key man in my line up above....Sam Bennett

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

Daroxtar wrote: »

Is Dagenkolb not taking part? I'd surely throw him into the mix for a few stage wins.

He's my pick for the Green jersey. I'm a huge Kittel fan, but he hasn't shown any form at all this year. I reckon Dege will be the team leader, and he can mix it with the best. Having a spectacular year too, already won MSR and P-R.

happytramp

MPFG wrote: »

Of course I forgot a key man in my line up above....Sam Bennett

Absolutely, I wonder how his build up is coming along. I'd love to see Bennett in the Vuelta too. Some of guys he's beaten this year have cleaned up there in the past.

MPFG

happytramp wrote: »

Absolutely, I wonder how his build up is coming along. I'd love to see Bennett in the Vuelta too. Some of guys he's beaten this year have cleaned up there in the past.

Well he was sick there a few weeks ago...think he may have recovered ....if he can get a good positioning and an uphill finish....then I would favour him over everyone but maybe Sagan....but who knows maybe Sagan will be on team duties

Only trouble with Bennett is if he can stay the whole Tour but I suppose most sprints are in 1st 2 weeks anyway

D9Male

Stage 6 could suit Bennett pretty well.

That said, I wouldn't back him in an uphill sprint against Kristoff, Valverde, Degenkolb, Gilbert or Sagan at even money.

MPFG

D9Male wrote: »

Stage 6 could suit Bennett pretty well.

That said, I wouldn't back him in an uphill sprint against Kristoff, Valverde, Degenkolb, Gilbert or Sagan at even money.

Stage 6 is too hard.....stage 5 is a maybe ( meant upward drag to the line not a hill)

He will not be competing againt Valverde or Degenkolb......and Gilbert is not at the tour

Stage 6 is a Michael Matthews stage imo

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

Shedite27 wrote: »

I never rated Bouhanni, but he's had some good results this season, beating a few of the others in head to head sprints.

Really, when was this? I was under the impression his only wins were in the Dauphine when there really was no competition.

Lusk_Doyle

Kavrocks wrote: »

Really, when was this? I was under the impression his only wins were in the Dauphine when there really was no competition.

Well he had those two wins in his local club league but only because they let him off in the wrong group and scratch never caught them.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

D9Male wrote: »

Looking at the rules again, I think you are right pelevin. I am wrong.

Let's just say there is a "top" sprinter who wins 3 of the Category 1 stages and finishes 2nd in two....assume other one goes to break.

They will get 210 points for that.

And let's say that Sagan gets two 3rd places, two 4th places and a 5th place in those stages.

Sagan will get 92 points for that.

Now let's look at the medium difficulty stages (Mur x 2, cobbles, Rodez, Mende and Gap. Even if Sagan was to get two wins, a second and a third from that, it doesn't net him a massive pile.

Sagan would only get 91 points for that.

So it is likely that Sagan will have to make up around 30 points on the strongest of his adversaries in the intermediates. And given that in this scenario the dominant sprinter may actually go for green, he will be losing points in a lot of scenarios, when Cavendish sprints the intermediate for (say) 5th and Sagan maybe gets 6th.

Of course, if Cav, Kittel and Kristoff share the wins or if Kittel dominates but doesn't go for green, Sagan will be the most likely winner of the jersey. But I would think that Kristoff or Cavendish will win it, not Sagan.

You've certainly looked more deeply into it than I have & it seems they really have made more significant efforts this time to balance things towards the other likely lads. Otoh Sagan seems to have really hit form of late, whereas up till lately obviously Kristoff was of a far higher level than Sagan. What I actually did myself on the betting front, & which I don't regret (yet) is bet on Kristoff for the win at 11/2 & Sagan the same amount at 5/4 as a safety net.

Lusk_Doyle

pelevin wrote: »

You've certainly looked more deeply into it than I have & it seems they really have made more significant efforts this time to balance things towards the other likely lads. Otoh Sagan seems to have really hit form of late, whereas up till lately obviously Kristoff was of a far higher level than Sagan. What I actually did myself on the betting front, & which I don't regret (yet) is bet on Kristoff for the win at 11/2 & Sagan the same amount at 5/4 as a safety net.

Both of whom will be smashed by Cav and his Quick stepping lead out train!

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Both of whom will be smashed by Cav and his Quick stepping lead out train!

Could do. The logic of my hopeful bet, is banking though on Kristoff's sprinting at if not parity something close to it, whilst his hardman classics advantage proving telling. He does have 17 or 18 wins this season already, pretty incredible stuff.

L'Enfer du Nord

pelevin wrote: »

You've certainly looked more deeply into it than I have & it seems they really have made more significant efforts this time to balance things towards the other likely lads. Otoh Sagan seems to have really hit form of late, whereas up till lately obviously Kristoff was of a far higher level than Sagan. What I actually did myself on the betting front, & which I don't regret (yet) is bet on Kristoff for the win at 11/2 & Sagan the same amount at 5/4 as a safety net.

I hope Sagan does win it if ASO really have changed the rules specificly so 'the fastest sprinter' rather than the most consistant finisher wins. Don't really follow the green jersey too closely. Does Sagan pick up a lot of points in the intermediate sprints? I think the should re-instate the red jersey.

The Polkadot jersey 'King of Mountain' (Ha!) is a bit of a joke. Last year was a bit of an exception. For example were Verenque or Jalabert ever anything like the best climbers. Losing several minutes on mountain top finishes as they consistantly did (from memory).

Would the white jersey be improved if you had to be a tour debutante?

xebec

Nairo Quintana

No Roche or Deignan in the Tour?

GetWithIt

Back to hating Sky so.

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

xebec wrote: »

No Roche or Deignan in the Tour?

Ouch! Full list of 11 here;

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racing/tour-de-france/five-brits-named-in-team-skys-tour-de-france-shortlist-178350

D9Male

Not surprised Roche is out. I would say he averaged 500m on the front in the final Dauphiné climbs.

MPFG

D9Male wrote: »

Not surprised Roche is out. I would say he averaged 500m on the front in the final Dauphiné climbs.

You are so quick to jump on his grave...check your facts

And he had a poorish Dauphine but so did half the GT leaders ....

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

D9Male wrote: »

Not surprised Roche is out. I would say he averaged 500m on the front in the final Dauphiné climbs.

But he was the last Sky rider there with Froome most of the time regardless of how long he lasted on the front.

Anyway maybe this will mean they are saving Roche for the Vuelta and he'll get a chance as team leader.

lukegjpotter

Nico and The FroomeDog were in the Pyrenees really recently for some recon.

https://instagram.com/p/4JksfYmxuG/

MPFG

British reporter released an erroneous report

Lists all British riders and even Danny Pate ?? Nieve ? Rowe ?

My view is it was wishful thinking on their part

Roche has been top Dom for Froome all year....one slip up at the Dauphine and SKY throw him out....Can;t say for definite what they will do but it would be a big error

Because as discussed the Tour is not just about climbing and SKY have alot to chose from there ...but also about consistency, experience, descending, staying at the front, crosswinds, cobbles,etc

And despite being key in the above Roche is still a top climber even if he was very tired at the Dauphine

happytramp

GetWithIt wrote: »

Back to hating Sky so.

I'm going to re-double my efforts and concentrate extra hard on hating them after this. :mad:

D9Male

Holy smoke, how am I jumping on his grave? That is just ridiculous. I really like the guy, but given how competitive the Sky squad is, I think it is very tough to get into that squad. Some places are absolutely nailed on. Porte, Froome and Thomas. Stannard and Rowe. And Poels finished so strongly in Dauphiné that it would be hard to exclude him.

There is no denying that he rode poorly in the Dauphiné. I think it would be rash to exclude him, but they have a lot of climbers not far off his level. As much as I would love him to ride and succeed in the Tour, I can understand his exclusion.

And as someone who has followed his career for years, I would prefer to see him train for a shot at co-leading the Vuelta rather than run the risk of doing a bad job as a work horse for Froome.

MPFG

But the thing is he has not been excluded AFAIK

IF Deignan were excluded ( I hope he is not) ....I won;t say he rode very poorly at the Lankawi (which he did) and leave it as that

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

British reporter released an erroneous report

Do you know this for a fact?

Maybe Roche & Deignan might show up for the nationals if they've both missed the cut....

MPFG

YeahOK wrote: »

Do you know this for a fact?

Maybe Roche & Deignan might show up for the nationals if they've both missed the cut....

SKY have denied the report they issued and said it is wrong ....list in a few days

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

SKY have denied the report they issued and said it is wrong ....list in a few days

Wonder are they flying a few kites to avoid a Where's Wiggo debacle?

D9Male

MPFG wrote: »

But the thing is he has not been excluded AFAIK

IF Deignan were excluded ( I hope he is not) ....I won;t say he rode very poorly at the Lankawi (which he did) and leave it as that

But Roche did ride very poorly in the Dauphiné. That race was the first time it even crossed my mind that he may not be nailed on for the Tour team.

Obviously none of us are privy to how Roche has trained to peak this year, but it wasn't just how poor he was. It was the fact that he was lined up to be the last man with Froome. And then after waiting behind Kennaugh or Poels or whoever he either got dropped before hitting the front or he just did a small turn at the front.

Does being Irish insulate someone from criticism? And there is a big difference between how seriously Sky would take the performance of one of their key domestiques in the Dauphiné compared to how they would consider performance in an Asian Tour race.

xebec

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

SKY have denied the report they issued and said it is wrong ....list in a few days

Interesting, when I posted my link to the BBC site the Sky site had the same list that the BBC were referring to, now it has been removed...

MPFG

D9Male wrote: »

But Roche did ride very poorly in the Dauphiné. That race was the first time it even crossed my mind that he may not be nailed on for the Tour team.

Obviously none of us are privy to how Roche has trained to peak this year, but it wasn't just how poor he was. It was the fact that he was lined up to be the last man with Froome. And then after waiting behind Kennaugh or Poels or whoever he either got dropped before hitting the front or he just did a small turn at the front.

Does being Irish insulate someone from criticism? And there is a big difference between how seriously Sky would take the performance of one of their key domestiques in the Dauphiné compared to how they would consider performance in an Asian Tour race.

I am not insulating Roche from criticism....I am looking at the validity of the criticism and in this case a poor Dauphine (but not that bad) does not justify leaving him out of the Tour given his experience and work all year and given the nature of the Dauphine as a warm up race...( and I mentioned nothing about him being Irish...) You on the other hand believe a poor Dauphine is a valid reason for exclusion ....Fine that is your opinion but it is not mine.

Also if he doesn't do the Tour he won't do the Vuelta as leader because if SKY don't think he deserves Tour place then there is no way they would make him leader in another Grand Tour

D9Male

They would if they thought his bad Dauphiné was caused by poor form which can be repaired by some rest.

After all, a lot of the other potential Sky team leaders in the Vuelta (Froome, Porte, Henao, Konig) will probably not be doing the Vuelta if they ride the Tour.

I thought that accusing someone of jumping on Roche's grave was a bit more than looking on the validity of the criticism.

I still think there is a big chance he won't be in Utrecht to start the Tour.

D9Male

Anyway, in actual team news, Sam Bennett is confirmed in the Bora-Argon Tour team.

Barta, Bennett, Buchmann, Dempster, Huzrski, Mendes, Nerz, Schillinger, Voss

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

In other news, I just learned that the van Rensburg brothers, like the Baggio brothers, are not related.

D9Male

https://twitter.com/chrisfroome/status/613312540806922240

Maybe Roche is in after all. Good on him.

MPFG

D9Male ...ok maybe I got a bit carried away with the walking on the grave part and apologize

But still disagree with the other parts

D9Male

Fair enough. Seems like you were right anyway, so we're all cool.

All we need now is for him to "do a Landa" and we're all happy.

MPFG

Well you could be right yet...not that I want that but there is no guarantee that Brailsford will pick him

Also Deignan ...has he been seen training with anyone ??


Sam Bennett ...love if he could get a stage .....wonder if he will go for the points jersey ...he is consistent...or is that a step too far ?
I suppose one stage win would be magnificent

Hoping Dan martin wins stage 3 or stage 8 or both

D9Male

I have a sneaky feeling Dan Martin is having a big tour. He seems very capable on timing his form to produce the goods on the big days. I am not too concerned about the moderate form this spring.

If ever there was a GT route to suit Dan Martin it is this one. Sure he will lose time on the cobbled stage, but I think a few of the GC contenders will too. And I don't think the time gaps in this race will be as big as last time unless the weather is just as bad.

There are lots of Vuelta-type finishes. Some of which have time gaps.

There are very few time trial kilometres.

So I am not sure if I want him to stage hunt on the Murs and in Mende or Gap, or to ride for GC.