Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

MPFG

D9Male wrote: »

So I am not sure if I want him to stage hunt on the Murs and in Mende or Gap, or to ride for GC.

Can do both and may need to as he can make up bonus seconds for later here ..

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

D9Male wrote: »

https://twitter.com/chrisfroome/status/613312540806922240

Maybe Roche is in after all. Good on him.

Seems odd he'd be with Froome so much now and then not in the Tour?

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

Kavrocks wrote: »

Seems odd he'd be with Froome so much now and then not in the Tour?

My thoughts too. I sense the article is inaccurate.

GetWithIt

D9Male wrote: »

Anyway, in actual team news, Sam Bennett is confirmed in the Bora-Argon Tour team.

Barta, Bennett, Buchmann, Dempster, Huzrski, Mendes, Nerz, Schillinger, Voss

Team built around Bennett stage wins / green jersey?

smurphy29

Deignan has declared he's riding the nationals, so I would take that to mean he's not riding the tour.

As for Roche riding with Froome, I wouldn't read anything into it. I would imagine Brailsford wants to keep the riders on their toes as much as possible until the last moment, so I wouldn't attach much meaning to anyone being spotted training with Froome.

Deignan gave himself a good chance with his ride in the Dauphine, but with the depth on the team it is very hard to get a ride. Nieve, Konig and Porte all have outstanding pedigree, Kennaugh was exceptional in the Dauphine and Geraint Thomas was 5sec off winning the Tour de Suisse, so those five were always nailed on. The TTT and the classics-style stages necessitate a couple of roleurs, so after that it's a real scrap for the last place. The best chance for the Irish lads would have been if Konig or Porte were still not ready after their varying experiences in the Giro.

MPFG

smurphy29 wrote: »

Deignan has declared he's riding the nationals, so I would take that to mean he's not riding the tour.

As for Roche riding with Froome, I wouldn't read anything into it. I would imagine Brailsford wants to keep the riders on their toes as much as possible until the last moment, so I wouldn't attach much meaning to anyone being spotted training with Froome.

Deignan gave himself a good chance with his ride in the Dauphine, but with the depth on the team it is very hard to get a ride. Nieve, Konig and Porte all have outstanding pedigree, Kennaugh was exceptional in the Dauphine and Geraint Thomas was 5sec off winning the Tour de Suisse, so those five were always nailed on. The TTT and the classics-style stages necessitate a couple of roleurs, so after that it's a real scrap for the last place. The best chance for the Irish lads would have been if Konig or Porte were still not ready after their varying experiences in the Giro.

Kennaugh was not on the list that was on SKY's website either
Don't agree Nieve is nailed on .......though Nieve a very good climber in form

smurphy29

MPFG wrote: »

Kennaugh was not on the list that was on SKY's website either
Don't agree Nieve is nailed on .......though Nieve a very good climber in form

Kennaugh was on the list. Nieve has been among Sky's best climbing domestiques for some time now, so I'd see him as massively odds-on to make the cut.

The depth of talent is strong in the team. It looks like the best team they can put out since the Wiggo-Froome-Porte-Rogers train crushed all comers.

MPFG

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2015/06/team-sky-plays-down-leaked-tour-lineup-says-it-doesnt-accurately-reflect-final-squad/

And in a so so Giro field excluding besides Contador, Landa & Aru.... Nieve came 27th at almost 50 minutes down

He was 18th on stage 15
18th on stage 16
25th on stage 20 for example

and I saw him about 3 times doing dom work

Deignan was better than him at last years Vuelta ...so no I don;t think he is not one of SKY's best climbers...his form is hit & miss
As I said on form he is good

It seems people suffer from confirmation bias .....and see what they want to see in cycling
A commentator makes a big deal about a rider one day and everyone says what a great race he had even though he is missing every other day

Another rider works steadily everyday but has a problem a few days and is pasted with this view for the year

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

Don't agree Nieve is nailed on .......

I don't either. I think its more likely we'd see Kiryienka because of the TTT. He can set a monstrous tempo on the flat and can climb too which is always a bonus.

Lusk_Doyle

Kavrocks wrote: »

I don't either. I think its more likely we'd see Kiryienka because of the TTT. He can set a monstrous tempo on the flat and can climb too which is always a bonus.

He seems to be the one that is leading the group most of the time on camera anyway.

D9Male

I heard it was unlikely Kiriyenka would ride. but I won't believe the team is final until I see them on the start ramp in Utrecht.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Was watching gcn earlier & according to them Contador was evenly matched by Quintana in the Route de Sud & only gained time on the decent..

Berti was saying he still hadnt fully recovered from the Giro...

Saying that there's all sorts of bluffing before a big Tour...

Lusk_Doyle

Arequipa wrote: »

Was watching gcn earlier & according to them Contador was evenly matched by Quintana in the Route de Sud & only gained time on the decent..

Berti was saying he still hadnt fully recovered from the Giro...

Saying that there's all sorts of bluffing before a big Tour...

Being evenly matched when neither were flat out ascending is of no consequence in the grand (tour) scheme of things.

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

Arequipa wrote: »

Was watching gcn earlier & according to them Contador was evenly matched by Quintana in the Route de Sud & only gained time on the decent..

Berti was saying he still hadnt fully recovered from the Giro...

Saying that there's all sorts of bluffing before a big Tour...

It's probably best to simply believe the opposite of what Contador says before a race.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Berti & Quintana!

happytramp

Hype levels building enormously! Probably the most excited I've been for the Tour (granted this is only my 6th or 7th)

Never seen so many top guys racing and capable of winning.
Never seen so many capable of making the podium, top 5 and top 10.
Amazing battle potentially on the cards for the Green jersey with Sagan, Kristoff, Cav, Kittel, Matthews, Degenklob.
Dan Martin going for stages wins and GC
Sam Bennett as team leader
Roche (possibly Deignan) in the mix at the sharp end of the MTF's

Can't flippin wait.

neris

happytramp wrote: »

Can't flippin wait.

wish theyd hurry up, im getting withdrawl symptoms here after the last few weeks of cycling everyday (even if there was no commentary on eurosport)

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

Kittel has pulled out, unsurprisingly. He's so far off form, it wouldn't have made a difference if he did go. All about Degenkolb now

http://www.ad.nl/ad/nl/1063/Tour-de-France/article/detail/4088232/2015/06/25/Kittel-niet-mee-naar-Tour-de-France.dhtml

velo.2010

Picked up the Procycling guide yesterday - I usually do every year. Its handy to have and easy to just flick to the day's stage.

I didn't look into the route profile in much detail until now. Blimey, there is not one 'boring' stage, maybe a couple of transition stages which could still be affected by wind or heat. Good to see the stage to Gap is back. Always provides a spectacle on the final climb and descent. Bar the climb to Plateau de Beille, I can't see the Pyrennes doing much to shake up the GC - the first week will do that! I think Froome will go 'mad on Mende'. A similar effort to La Planche de Belles Filles, I can see team Sky going full tilt on this one.

I couldn't even guess what will happen by the time whoever's left reaches the Alps. Looking forward to it!

lennymc

Alberto Contador

Arequipa wrote: »

Was watching gcn earlier & according to them Contador was evenly matched by Quintana in the Route de Sud & only gained time on the decent..

Rule 93

Weepsie

No Galibier, Back up Croix de Fer

MPFG

I would like Kiriyenka to ride for SKY as I think he is very strong in all areas not just climbing...and he is dependable over 3 weeks

Pity about Kittel ...I was hoping he would Cav a good duel....wonder what the problem is as he was such a giant last year

First week will be mega and I honestly think Dan martin has a chance of yellow with stage 3 , Stage 6 and Stage 8 and not losing too much time on TT and the bonus points
I don't think he will get as big a chance again ....see Valverde , Allaphillipe & maybe Purito as challengers...maybe Kwait but was not great at Suisse but that could have been just not yet ready ....(good job he is not at SKY yet or there would be calls for his exclusion )


But it all depends on Cannondale Garmin supporting Dan fully ?

MPFG

Hard to know with Quintana ...great poker face ....but I thought Contador looked stronger on the climb in Route de Sud

Velocast guy was saying and I agree with him that Contador is probably still flying after the Giro and will tire in third week

and I think Quintana could be flying in 3rd week

The Tour could eb like 2 different races ....First 10 stages one group totallyto the fore
Next 11 Stages another group to the fore

Bring it on

neris

cycling podcast were saying they think Quintana's descending skills arent as good as before and that he looks nervous going down descents and may have a bit of fear in him after coming off the bike last year

Dr. Bre

Alpe d'huez replacing the galibier. stg 19 and 20 they go up the de fer

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Alpe d'huez replacing the galibier. stg 19 and 20 they go up the de fer

Just to be clear. Alpe d'Huez was always the finish of Stage 20. The col de la Croix de Fer attacked from a different side to that of Stage 19 replaces the col du Galibier. Stage 19 is unchanged.

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

happytramp wrote: »

Hype levels building enormously! Probably the most excited I've been for the Tour (granted this is only my 6th or 7th)

Never seen so many top guys racing and capable of winning.
Never seen so many capable of making the podium, top 5 and top 10.
Amazing battle potentially on the cards for the Green jersey with Sagan, Kristoff, Cav, Kittel, Matthews, Degenklob.
Dan Martin going for stages wins and GC
Sam Bennett as team leader
Roche (possibly Deignan) in the mix at the sharp end of the MTF's

Can't flippin wait.

I've been watching Le Tour since the early 80s. I was born in 78 and don't remember a time when we didn't watch the tour. I don't remember a time when so many grand tour winners lined up with a genuine chance of winner the tour. Usually there were rivals to a main contender: Hinault v Lemond, Rominger v Indurain, Ulrich v Armstrong etc. . This year there are 4 guys who you wouldn't be surprised seeing win.

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

neris wrote: »

cycling podcast were saying they think Quintana's descending skills arent as good as before and that he looks nervous going down descents and may have a bit of fear in him after coming off the bike last year

Valverde will guide him down.

Valverde is very capable of hanging onto the lead group over any of the penultimate climbs. He'll look after Quintana.

neris

Froome says he missed a drug test

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/jun/24/chris-froome-missed-drug-test-tour-de-france

Roquentin

Vincenzo Nibali

neris wrote: »

Froome says he missed a drug test

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/jun/24/chris-froome-missed-drug-test-tour-de-france

wait till paul kimmage hears this

MPFG

Roquentin wrote: »

wait till paul kimmage hears this

Kimmage and Contador fans will have a field day

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

It is hard to know what to think about Froome missing a drugs test, given the history...

Re descending.. I would say Nibali is the most technical & the bravest... Then Contador & then Froome & Quintana...

It is a dangerous game; as all it takes is some melted tar, gravel or a pothole at 100kmph & it is curtains!

http://youtu.be/xPXIdGy1iM0

Leroy42

One missed test is nothing. A simple mistake, that is why they have the 3 strikes rule as even WADA accept that these things happen.

It is a non story, and fair play to Froome for accepting the responsibility (while at the same time blaming the hotel staff!!)

MPFG

Arequipa wrote: »

I
It is a dangerous game; as all it takes is some melted tar, gravel or a pothole at 100kmph & it is curtains!

http://youtu.be/xPXIdGy1iM0

As Brain? said earlier ...another reason to bring Roche ...he is a top descender to have in front of you..... and safer than having Thomas or even Porte imo

velo.2010

I think Roche and Deignan will be co-leaders for the Vuelta from what it seems.

Probable team Sky line-up (Will most likely be wrong!)

Froome
Porte
Wout Poels
Nieve
Thomas
Rowe
Kennaugh
Eisel
Stannard

MPFG

who knows what SKY team will be but

http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/other-sports/nicolas-roche-worried-as-tour-de-france-place-in-jeopardy-338914.html

niceonetom

God help me, it's come to the point that I'm actually sort of hoping Roche won't make the Sky team now just because I know it'll annoy the fanboys so much.

happytramp

velo.2010 wrote: »

I think Roche and Deignan will be co-leaders for the Vuelta from what it seems.

How do you figure that? They're unlikely to give Deignan a leadership role if they feel he's not up to getting a place on the Tour team. (I'd love if he was though or maybe given a free role to hunt stages)

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

Leroy42 wrote: »

One missed test is nothing. A simple mistake, that is why they have the 3 strikes rule as even WADA accept that these things happen.

It is a non story, and fair play to Froome for accepting the responsibility (while at the same time blaming the hotel staff!!)

The fact that he came out and said it himself says it all for me. Wasn't like a UCI statement reprimanding him.

MPFG

niceonetom wrote: »

God help me, it's come to the point that I'm actually sort of hoping Roche won't make the Sky team now just because I know it'll annoy the fanboys so much.

Pretty petty reason to not want an Irish rider to ride a Grand Tour ....guess you would prefer if fans ( I presume like me) were happy at him not riding or at least didn't bother writing about it ....must really annoy you ....considering what a positive contribution you make to the debate

I guess begrudgers are everywhere ..

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

I like Contador - however much 'liking' someone you don't know means, I'm far from a fan of Kimmage, despite a little more than a year ago imagining he represented something like my views . . . I won't pretend I want Froome to win but him saying he missed a drug test doesn't in the slightest mean I've any desire to criticise him or view this negatively. The world can be very far from psychologically made up of black & whites of love & hate.

niceonetom

I just find the constant flag-waving and bigging-up immensely tedious, terribly predictable and slightly sad.

velo.2010

happytramp wrote: »

How do you figure that? They're unlikely to give Deignan a leadership role if they feel he's not up to getting a place on the Tour team. (I'd love if he was though or maybe given a free role to hunt stages)

He's never ridden the Tour but has won a Vuelta stage and finished top ten overall. I doubt Froome, Porte, Poels will ride the Vuelta. Deignan has plenty of experience at this stage and with a climber friendly course it would be interesting to see him in a protected role.

MPFG

niceonetom wrote: »

I just find the constant flag-waving and bigging-up immensely tedious, terribly predictable and slightly sad.

I guess a fan should not do any of those things then? ...because its less sad to be clinical and dispassionate on the topic ?.... just as MU or Liverpool fans are ?

Maybe we should just say 'may the best man win' , etc and leave it at that

I have gotten over involved because I have read what I feel are unfair and incorrect assessments on the subject and I fell strongly about it ...how sad am i ? But more than that ...there are certain people on here and as far as I can remember are first to pull Nico Roche down...they are forever ready to jump in and say how useless he is, what a rubbish GT contenders or a terrible domestique, in fact every other rider is better and no other Irish rider is EVER criticized and gets plenty of flag waving without it ever being tedious ..and then they are almost smug when there is an opportunity to justify this opinion

and I find that attitude to Roche petty and negative ...and thus over compensate for it

It may seem over the top to you but hey I would prefer to be invested and involved rather than your world weary attitude that involves pulling fans down because it is just so tedious !!

and this topic on team selection came up at the beginning of the week and will not be a story come next Monday when we know the outcome... hardly a long running saga

But don't worry I am signing off and you can stick your superior attitude where the sun don't shine

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

The criticism and flak being shown towards Roche is completely unwarranted. If he was such a poor rider why would Sky have signed him in the first place?

Leroy42

Roche is a very good rider, he was leader of AG2R for a few years, got a great result in the Vuelta and has been consistently strong on the GT's for years. He only falls short of others opinions of where he should be, lead mainly of course by his name. (and our hopes)

As Eamonn would say, he's good but he's not great. He is missing that 1% (or whatever it is) that you need to be the very top. We are very lucky that we have had such a level of cyclist for the last few years. Remember the dearth we had when Kelly/Roche retired.

As Dan Martin is finding, there is a big difference between having the ability and actually landing the prize as you are up against so many other top level riders and top level teams.

Back to the topic of the thread, I'm have no idea who is going to win. Contador is always up there, but I just can't see him doing it. His team isn't good enough to support him, which usually he doesn't need but after the Giro I think he will need it and won't get it.

Nibali, well he's team is just incredible, unbelievable almost. He has shown over the last few years that he has a huge capacity to never give up, seems to be able to surprise everyone. The cobbles stages last year, the descent in the Giro etc.

Quintana, difficult one. Having little or no TT suits him and obviously any climb presents a chance to gain time. Has done little this year to show where he is but he did match Contador on the climbs in RdS (didn't pay much attention to the time lost on the descent, nothing to gain so why take a risk)

Froome, goes in a the favorite based on both is Dauphine performance and also he was strong even early in the year. Seems, though, that the Sky team is having its own difficulties and whether they can sort those out will play a big role. However, Froome has shown in the past that he can match the big guns even when isolated so while having the team do the Skybot thing is of course a huge advantage, I think that even if Astana are stronger I don't see where Nibali will be able to drop him.

I think it will be Froome, Nibali, Quintana and Contador but I don't think either Quintana or Contador will be in the top 5.

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think it will be Froome, Nibali, Quintana and Contador but I don't think either Quintana or Contador will be in the top 5.

Who do you think will be top 5?

Leroy42

Kavrocks wrote: »

Who do you think will be top 5?

I haven't got that far yet!

I think Froome/Nibali will be 1/2. My bet would be Froome but it could be Nibali.

I just think that neither Quintana or Contador will have enough and will drop out of the top 5.

Roquentin

Vincenzo Nibali

i think quintana will win

spock.

Thibaut Pinot

I'd love to see Nibali win it again. I really like him as a rider and don't think he got the credit he deserved for last year's win.
Having said that, if Froome hits top form I don't think anybody will be able to beat him.