Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

Leroy42

Whatever happens, and how many of our predications are shown up for the ignorant guesswork they invariably are, the great thing is that this tour is really shaping up to be a great one.

After all the years of 1stly Indurain and then LA, and after we all felt a bit robbed last year when Contador and Froome both crashed out, lets hope all the top guys remain healthy in in one piece and we get to see some epic battles (along with the shots of a few castles and sunflowers)

neris

cant see the 4 favs been in the top 5. few other riders outside those 4 who could possibly take places 2-5. Rodriguez, Valverde, Kristoff, Pinot, Hysedjal. Being the tour one of the favourites has to blow up, or retire and a number of other reasons I havent even thought of

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

neris wrote: »

cant see the 4 favs been in the top 5. few other riders outside those 4 who could possibly take places 2-5. Rodriguez, Valverde, Kristoff, Pinot, Hysedjal. Being the tour one of the favourites has to blow up, or retire and a number of other reasons I havent even thought of

Kristoff??! Tejay Van Garderen would presumably deserve mention too.

L'Enfer du Nord

neris wrote: »

cant see the 4 favs been in the top 5. few other riders outside those 4 who could possibly take places 2-5. Rodriguez, Valverde, Kristoff, Pinot, Hysedjal. Being the tour one of the favourites has to blow up, or retire and a number of other reasons I havent even thought of

Wierd thing about cycling is that lots of Podium finishers never look like to could actually win the race, while at the same time possible winners often end up outside the top five. A good climber can often finish on the podium in a good year, but his lack of time trial ability means he never looks like a winner. On the other hand a supposedly good all-rounder can have one bad day in the mountains and drop several places.

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

spock. wrote: »

I'd love to see Nibali win it again. I really like him as a rider and don't think he got the credit he deserved for last year's win.

I would too. I thought his ride was immense last year and even if Contador and Froome finished (which he deserves even more credit for) I reckon he'd have still won.

I think the course favours Nibali more so than the rest but think a lot of it could come down to how the first week and TTT goes and what time gaps we see between the big teams. It's very hard to predict how the mountains will go because of that first week and the TTT. I think that's what should make for a very interesting Tour.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Some light reading for the weekend!

neris

Hypothetical question: TT bikes, helmets, skin suits etc are banned for the TTs this year and riders have to use their every day bikes and kit who would you think would do it?

L'Enfer du Nord

Not sure why Sky need the camper van, anytime I hear Brailsford interviewed I'm out like a light. Couldn't he just read Froome a bed time story from Wiggo's book?

Leroy42

neris wrote: »

Hypothetical question: TT bikes, helmets, skin suits etc are banned for the TTs this year and riders have to use their every day bikes and kit who would you think would do it?

I think if they were banned they would all do it!

cormacjones

Leroy42 wrote: »

I haven't got that far yet!

I think Froome/Nibali will be 1/2. My bet would be Froome but it could be Nibali.

I just think that neither Quintana or Contador will have enough and will drop out of the top 5.

Can't agree with you on Quintana, Leroy. He came 2nd two years ago, is now more experienced and it's a route that should suit him. I'd be very surprised if he finishes outside the top 5.

Jude13

Although I will be cheering on Nico as an individual I just can't get behind Sky, who would be deemed the 'cleanest' team?

Quintana, for 1st by the way

happytramp

Jude13 wrote: »

Although I will be cheering on Nico as an individual I just can't get behind Sky, who would be deemed the 'cleanest' team?

generally accepted that Garmin are a very transparent and strong on anti doping policy. Hard to know if that's been compromised by its recent merger with another team. But if it's still got the same staff and policies then they're still up there.

MPFG

happytramp wrote: »

generally accepted that Garmin are a very transparent and strong on anti doping policy. Hard to know if that's been compromised by its recent merger with another team. But if it's still got the same staff and policies then they're still up there.

It is not accepted by me that Garmin Cannondale are the 'cleanest' what with a stable of ex dopers ( who have now mostly retired but there are still Danelison and then there was that one time by Hesejedal (:rolleyes:)
And of course lets not forget Johnny Weltz who featured in ADD report this week and seemed as culpable as Riis
There is no doubt Vaughters talks a good game .....but talk is just that in my book ..TCS & Astana have anti doping policies and are/were with MPCC

Cleanest teams for me are the French esp FDJ

Jude13

Ah man, Dan is with Garmin. Sad day when a clean team can't be recognized.

Anyway enough thread jacking from me.

Pudsy33

Nairo Quintana

We don't know any of them are clean for sure, all have blemishes. Wouldnt base my support on that.

MPFG

Jude13 wrote: »

Ah man, Dan is with Garmin. Sad day when a clean team can't be recognized.

Anyway enough thread jacking from me.

I can understand your point and if I had to bet on it I would bet Dan Martin is a clean rider ...along with alot of other riders in the peloton but not all

But we are talking about teams as a whole and I am sure there are problems in all or almost all ....statistics alone would indicate that along with the presence of past transgressors

Its is a pity but as the ADD report has proved if ever there was a doubt, the rewards still far outweigh the drawbacks/sanctions and when that is the case there will always be problems. When you think of the acclaim and money one gets for wining in contrast to the ridicule for being a 'medicore' non class rider its easy to see the temptation

happytramp

MPFG wrote: »

When you think of the acclaim and money one gets for wining in contrast to the ridicule for being a 'medicore' non class rider its easy to see the temptation

Do the domestiques etc really get ridiculed?

gordongekko

I saw during the week that froome missed a drugs test. Not the type of news you want coming into the tdf

MPFG

happytramp wrote: »

Do the domestiques etc really get ridiculed?

Ivan Basso is getting a fair share of it at the moment ...so yes they do

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

Kittel and Bouhanni both out of the Tour. Good news for Bennett.

MPFG

what happened to Bouhanni ??

Good news for Cavandish too I suppose

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

MPFG wrote: »

what happened to Bouhanni ??

Good news for Cavandish too I suppose

https://twitter.com/BouhanniNacer/status/615190902986919938

Not clear yet but sounds like he thinks something is broken or fractured.

Lusk_Doyle

^ Looks like he shaves EVERYTHING!!!

happytramp

Hmmm, just watched the Italian nationals there. Nibali looked very strong. No telling how he'll do against the Tour opposition but he fairly destroyed the field yesterday and looked in better shape than he did at the nationals last year. Seems like he knows what he's doing form wise.

unichall

gordongekko wrote: »

I saw during the week that froome missed a drugs test. Not the type of news you want coming into the tdf

It was in a press conference with froome where he highlighted/ brought to light how he has missed two tests in the last 3 years. He was able to offer a plausible excuse to both and it seemed like he was trying to highlight the difficulty of being available for an hour a day every day more so than anything else. Basically he made himself available in the states hour both times and even with that he stillanages to miss two tests. It made a better headline than it did a story

Roquentin

Vincenzo Nibali

http://www1.skysports.com/cycling/news/21683/9897855/tour-de-france-team-sky-unveil-squad-to-support-chris-froome

letape

Vincenzo Nibali

Darkglasses wrote: »

Kittel and Bouhanni both out of the Tour. Good news for Bennett.

Bouhanni now hopeful of starting as x-ray appear to indiacate nothing broken

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bouhanni-hopeful-of-riding-the-tour-de-france

velo.2010

Tinkoff Saxo Team, Contador, Majka, Kreuziger, Basso, Rogers, Sagan, Tossato, Bennati Morkov.

Doesn't inspire too much confidence.

No Kiserlovski but Basso again!? Kreuziger is seriously out of form unless, like Basso, the Giro was some sort of training block for the Tour. Surprised both Tossato and Bennati get the nod as they fulfill essentially the same role around Contador on the flat. I guess Oleg had a hand in picking the team with an eye on both Sagan And Contador winning jerseys. I don't think its possible for a team these days to split loyalties.

Re the press release, its strongly suggested that Majka can and will stick with Contador in the High mountains.

MPFG

The thing with TCS is if they are in form it could be a great team

Kreuziger , Basso , Rogers & Majka in top form are great but none of them has shown great form this year

Maybe it was all the overtraining and they have rested now

They are all pretty big strong guys to get Contador through the first week which is key

Dr. Bre

I was really impressed with majka last year when contador crashed out he won a couple of stages and the KOM jersey. pity he not on a team which would give him the lead role

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBr-gamddds

I have no words.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Should have added some distortion/overdrive to his voice to add some much needed menace/aggro to Greipel's voice. Like the dream thing at the end.

happytramp

I see a date between Griepel's singing career and an episode of Eurosport's WATTS in the not to distant future.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Morning..
I think Contador is one of the few riders who can do it without a team..
But time will tell if he has recovered from the Giro..

I was reading about Nibali & Quintana: they both sound like fairly grounded, humble guys..
Nibali has yet to become a huge star in Italy, where there has been a black hole since Pantani died.. He seems like a nice guy who prefers to stay put of the media spotlight & just train with his friends...
He is very close to his wife & daughter & enjoys spending time with them..
Having ready about Nibali i like him even more..

He also seems to time his peak fitness to coincide perfectly with the Tour: the rest better watch out!

Quintana also seems like a humble, quiet nice guy.
He too is a committed father, but is more of a star in Colombia where he is a UNESCO rep who campaigns for equal rights for men & women..

He is the youngest of the big 4; he will be close to his GC rivals, bit if he doesnt win it this year,, he has plenty if time ahead of him!

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Just read somewhere a response to Kiryienka's absence - there's the understandable idea he's an infinitely strong hardman whose engine just goes & goes but remember in 2013 he actually got eliminated on I think the second mountain day of the Tour not making the time cutoff. Maybe he's considered just too knackered after the Giro.

MPFG

Bernie Eisel missed the time cut at the Tour of Switzerland and is supposed to be knackered after classics and the Giro

AIR-AUSSIE

Alberto Contador

Tour de France 2015 Race Book:
http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2015/us/linkExtranetFiles/us/tdf15-lr-uk-bd_1433865678.pdf

retalivity

Stuck contador in a double with Murray/djokovic to be Wimbledon finalists at around 14/1. Honestly I think froome will win but would love to see any of the other 3 win. Think contador will be 1st or bust which shoukd add to the attacking

Lusk_Doyle

retalivity wrote: »

Stuck contador in a double with Murray/djokovic to be Wimbledon finalists at around 14/1. Honestly I think froome will win but would love to see any of the other 3 win. Think contador will be 1st or bust which shoukd add to the attacking

Hold on, hold on. Contador and Froome play tennis? In Wimbledon?!? With the Tour coming up?

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

So i imagine the training is all done. Now time for the GC boys to relax & rest up before the craziness begins!

Any of you on Instagram: Chris Froome, Alberto, Team Sky etc all have good stuff posted up there..

Berti is out walking his dog & Froomey is relaxing in a swimming pool....

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

What also strikes me is how skinny the top guys are.. They have the upperbodies of a skinny teenager (no offence intended) & fairly lean legs..

Overall not a good look, in my humble opinion, but at their level, every kilo counts....

zymar

Vincenzo Nibali

hope Quintana puts it to them in the mountains
would like to see him win it
froome or nibali I think for the win

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

I have a new reason to dislike Froome. He drinks Lattes, the horror.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-ednvYZdgU

I put a fiver on Cavendish for the green jersey and a fiver on Contador for yellow. That's my official prediction now*. It's final.







*I still think Froome is going to win.

Darkglasses

Alberto Contador

I picked Froome for the GC, Degenkolb for the green, Bardet for the white jersey. I think Quintana is going to sink.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

With a 'free' introductory bet offer with some fine establishment or other I stuck 10 free euros on Dan Martin at 4/1 to get in the top 10. Whether he'll do it or not that seems to me generous in terms of perhaps his real odds in, apart from the cobbled stage, a Tour presumably to his liking.
Can't remember with who but there was a 5/2 offer on the winner riding a Specialized - covering both Contador & Nibali, which seemed attractive, not that I bit.

MPFG

I think he will pull it off ...and win this stage esp if team protect him & position him well at the bottom

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/video-dan-martin-aiming-for-mur-de-huy-redemption-in-tour-de-france

spock.

Thibaut Pinot

I've backed Nibali for yellow, Dekenkolb for green and Pinot for white.
Hopefully they don't all crash out in the 1st week

bren_mc

Thibaut Pinot

it would be interesting to see a poll on who people think will win. Can one be added to this or does it need a new thread?

I think Froome might shade it but that he'll some catching up to do after the first week. I'm gonna have a few quid e/w on Nibali at 5/1.

lennymc

Alberto Contador

bren_mc wrote: »

it would be interesting to see a poll on who people think will win. Can one be added to this or does it need a new thread?

I think Froome might shade it but that he'll some catching up to do after the first week. I'm gonna have a few quid e/w on Nibali at 5/1.

I was talking with a lad this morning who said the exact same thing!

bren_mc

Thibaut Pinot

lennymc wrote: »

I was talking with a lad this morning who said the exact same thing!

obviously knows his stuff:D