Premier League in Danger of Losing 4th Champions League Spot

Paully D

Interesting read from Michael Cox (aka Zonal Marking) on ESPN:

http://www.espnfc.co.uk/blog/tactics-and-analysis/67/post/2484883/premier-league-could-be-victim-of-europa-league-arrogance

2014-15 was a disastrous campaign for English clubs in European competition. No Premier League side reached the quarterfinals of either the Champions League or the Europa League, which had a serious impact on England's coefficient score. By this measure, England endured their worst European campaign in a decade.

UEFA's coefficient scores aren't the most romantic way to view European football, but they offer a fascinating insight into the strength of respective leagues, not to mention their role in determining the allocation of European places for upcoming seasons. Currently they don't make good reading for the Premier League.

As recently as 2012, the Premier League was considered the strongest division in Europe. Next season, the fight will be on to retain a top-three place -- and therefore the league's fourth Champions League slot. If the worst happens, and that place is lost, there will be serious questions about the genuine quality of a league that markets itself as the best around.

I had heard people mention that this may be possible but didn't really pay any attention as I didn't realise just quite how close the Premier League are to losing that 4th spot.

Worrying times for those clubs fighting it out at that end of the table and they'll all be hoping English teams in the Europa League start performing in it as opposed to seeing it as a distraction.

LuckyLloyd

Honestly? They'd change the rules if it came to it.

GavRedKing

Any team in the Europa league that have a chance of winning it, would be mad not to give it their full attention.

Spurs wont break into the top 4 IMO, their best chance of getting into the UCL would be a run in the Europa league, the prize of entry to the UCL should be a good incentive to anyone in the Europa league.

I think England will perform better this year in the UCL as Pool were terrible in it last year, I'd be expecting all 4 to get out of their groups this time and at least 1 to get to the QF's.

bullvine

Chelsea will do much better this season and the other 3 should get to the knockout stages.

AdamD

They won't drop below Italy. Feel free to quote me at the end of the season, its just not going to happen.

Francie Barrett

I don't think there is any immediate threat, certainly not on the 2016/2017 season. While 2014/2015 was a disaster for English teams in Europe without a doubt, I would still expect last year to be a blip. Chelsea, Arsenal and City will all be stronger this time - United too will probably make a better fist of the group stages of the CL than what we did. Spurs have been historically quite good in the Europa League, I would expect that to continue. Liverpool will also be under pressure to do well, and Southampton have a team that should adapt well to European competition. West Ham under Bilic might also surprise a few teams. No one will do worse than Hull did last year.

gimmick

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Spurs have been historically quite good in the Europa League, I would expect that to continue.

Have they?

LiamoSail

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Honestly? They'd change the rules if it came to it.

What makes you think that?

I don't think, in the grand scheme of of thing, the marginal increase in revenue the competition brings in through having Arsenal/Liverpool/Spurs involved in enough to warrant a rule change.

I think the value of participating in the CL for an English club is also likely to be diminished with this new TV deal for the EPL. The twenty/thirty million an English club makes for reaching the quarter final or thereabouts pales in significance to their TV revenue.

Obviously, in terms of prestige, sponsorship etc, it's a huge thing, but the one good thing to come from this new TV deal is probably the inadvertent consequence of reducing the financial gap between those in the CL and the rest

ArmaniJeanss

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Honestly? They'd change the rules if it came to it.

I don't think so . There were ~4 seasons at the start of the century when England only had 3 places and they didn't change the rules then. England had to play their way to the top tier spot ahead of Germany, who subsequently moved ahead of Italy.
UEFA have played this one straight up to now, no obvious reason why that should change now.

ERG89

GavRedKing wrote: »

Any team in the Europa league that have a chance of winning it, would be mad not to give it their full attention.

Spurs wont break into the top 4 IMO, their best chance of getting into the UCL would be a run in the Europa league, the prize of entry to the UCL should be a good incentive to anyone in the Europa league.

I think England will perform better this year in the UCL as Pool were terrible in it last year, I'd be expecting all 4 to get out of their groups this time and at least 1 to get to the QF's.

Chelsea will even City were lucky to get out of the groups....English teams haven't been doing well the last few seasons now. Arsenal get to the knockouts then leave.
It'd be kinda funny if they did lose a top 4 spot just to see the reaction.
The Italian teams in particular Lazio just don't have the budget to do well in the Champions League(the English clubs could spend €100m without flinching) if it was the two Milanese clubs they could be better set to do well as they have the better budgets and attraction.

Liam O

United and Arsenal will be in pot 2 surely? City probably high pot 3, should be able to get at least 3 to the KO stages overall which will be more than Italy or Germany imo. One of them will make the semis at least this season I'd say. City are due a big European season.

GavRedKing

Liam O wrote: »

United and Arsenal will be in pot 2 surely? City probably high pot 3, should be able to get at least 3 to the KO stages overall which will be more than Italy or Germany imo. One of them will make the semis at least this season I'd say. City are due a big European season.

Utd, Valencia and Bayer Leverkusen if they qualify are in Pot 2, with Real, Atletico, Arsenal, Man City and Porto, AFAIK.

The seeding this year is going to make for some interesting groups.

The big thing for anyone in pot 1 is to avoid Real and atletico because Chelsea cant play City, Arsenal or Utd, the chances of us getting either will increase.

citytillidie

If all seeded teams qualify this will be the pots for the group stage

Pot 1
FC Barcelona Esp 164.999
Chelsea Eng 142.078
Bayern München Ger 154.883
Juventus Ita 95.102
Benfica Por 118.276
Paris Saint-Germain Fra 100.483
Zenit St. Petersburg Rus 90.099
PSV Eindhoven Ned 58.195

Pot 2
Real Madrid Esp 171.999
Atlético Madrid Esp 120.999
FC Porto Por 111.276
Arsenal Eng 110.078
Manchester United Eng 103.078
Valencia Esp 99.999
Bayer Leverkusen Ger 87.883
Manchester City Eng 87.078

Pot 3
Shakhtar Donetsk Ukr 86.033
FC Basel Sui 84.875
Sevilla Esp 80.499
Olympique Lyon Fra 72.983
Ajax Ned 66.195
Dinamo Kiev Ukr 65.033
Olympiakos Piraeus Gre 62.380
Galatasaray Tur 50.020

Pot 4
AS Roma Ita 43.602
FC Salzburg Aut 43.135
Viktoria Plzen Cze 41.825
Steaua Bucuresti Rom 40.259
Celtic Sco 39.080
Borussia Mönchengladbach Ger 33.883
VfL Wolfsburg Ger 31.883
AA Gent Bel 13.440

citytillidie

And Europa League if all seeded teams qualify

Pot 1
Schalke 04 Ger 111.883
Borussia Dortmund Ger 99.883
Napoli Ita 84.102
Tottenham Hotspur Eng 84.078
Villarreal Esp 58.999
Athletic Bilbao Esp 56.999
Sporting CP Lisbon Por 56.276
CSKA Moscow Rus 55.599
Olympique Marseille Fra 55.483
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk Ukr 52.033
Sporting Braga Por 51.776
Fiorentina Ita 49.102

Pot 2
Lazio Ita 49.102
Anderlecht Bel 47.440
Liverpool Eng 47.078
AZ Alkmaar Ned 46.695
Club Brugge Bel 41.440
FC København Den 40.960
PAOK Thessaloniki Gre 40.880
Besiktas Tur 36.520
Trabzonspor Tur 36.520
APOEL Nicosia Cyp 35.460
BATE Borisov Bls 35.150
AS Monaco Fra 31.483

Pot 3
Young Boys Sui 31.375
Sparta Praha Cze 30.825
Fenerbahçe Tur 30.020
Dinamo Moscow Rus 27.599
Standard Liège Bel 25.440
Ludogorets Razgrad Bul 25.350
Legia Warsaw Pol 24.800
Dinamo Zagreb Cro 24.700
Girondins Bordeaux Fra 24.483
Lokomotiv Moscow Rus 23.099
NK Maribor Slo 22.225
Panathinaikos Gre 19.880

Pot 4
Maccabi Tel-Aviv Isr 18.200
Sampdoria Ita 18.102
Vitória Guimarães Por 17.776
Lech Poznan Pol 17.300
AS Saint-Étienne Fra 16.983
FC Zürich Sui 16.875
Slovan Liberec Cze 16.325
Southampton FC Eng 16.078
FC Augsburg Ger 15.883
Asteras Tripolis Gre 13.380
FC Groningen Ned 8.695
FC Sion Sui 8.375

Godot.

A lot of feminine side denial on this thread from Liverpool supporters. It's a real and tangible possibility England will a Champions League spot at the end of next season

dfx-

citytillidie wrote: »

If all seeded teams qualify this will be the pots for the group stage

Are Lazio not seeded? At a glance, I'd be surprised at that looking at Gent and and Salzburg

citytillidie

England will have to better Italy's score by 4 points this season

# country 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 ranking teams
1 Spain 20.857 17.714 23.000 20.214 0.000 81.785 0
2 Germany 15.250 17.928 14.714 15.857 0.000 63.749 0
3 England 15.250 16.428 16.785 13.571 0.000 62.034 0
4 Italy 11.357 14.416 14.166 19.000 0.000 58.939 0

Table above shows what it will be like next summer with out this coming season points gain of course

citytillidie

dfx- wrote: »

Are Lazio not seeded? At a glance, I'd be surprised at that looking at Gent and and Salzburg

Lazio are in the league route play offs and not seeded in those if all the seeded teams win the 3rd round, Gent are in the group stage already and Salzburg are seeded in the Champions route

Godot.

citytillidie wrote: »

Lazio are in the league route play offs and not seeded in those if all the seeded teams win the 3rd round, Gent are in the group stage already and Salzburg are seeded in the Champions route

It would probably do Italy's 4th spot chances the world of good if Lazio actually fail in the play-offs.
They'd struggle to get out of the groups in the Champions League but would be one of the favourites for Europa League

GavRedKing

citytillidie wrote: »

If all seeded teams qualify this will be the pots for the group stage

Chelsea Eng 142.078
Bayer Leverkusen Ger 87.883
Olympiakos Piraeus Gre 62.380
AA Gent Bel 13.440

This would be my ideal draw from the above teams.

5starpool

GavRedKing wrote: »

This would be my ideal draw from the above teams.

A group I'd love to see would be:

Bayern
Man Utd
Sevilla
Roma



Then again Utd will have a tricky tie to get into the group stages, but being seeded should be fine you'd think.

GavRedKing

5starpool wrote: »

A group I'd love to see would be:

Bayern
Man Utd
Sevilla
Roma



Then again Utd will have a tricky tie to get into the group stages, but being seeded should be fine you'd think.

Anyone have any idea of who Utd can face in the qualifier? You'd assume they would get through it anywho but the above group would be a bloody cracker in fairness.

Theres a possibility for a major group of death alright, theres a 2 or 3 teams in pot 3 who will be pushing for 2nd and Roma in pot 4 with maybe Celtic would fancy their chances aswell to pick up some points.

5starpool

GavRedKing wrote: »

Anyone have any idea of who Utd can face in the qualifier? You'd assume they would get through it anywho but the above group would be a bloody cracker in fairness.

Theres a possibility for a major group of death alright, theres a 2 or 3 teams in pot 3 who will be pushing for 2nd and Roma in pot 4 with maybe Celtic would fancy their chances aswell to pick up some points.

.

United side will be seeded for the draw in Nyon on August 7 - but could still face Lazio, Monaco, Sporting Lisbon or CSKA Moscow.

Other possible opponents include Brugge, Young Boys, Sparta Prague, Fenerbahce, Rapid Vienna and Panathinaikos.

They will avoid Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen, Shakhtar Donetsk and Ajax thanks to their high UEFA coeffiecent.

From a random newpaper article.

citytillidie

GavRedKing wrote: »

Anyone have any idea of who Utd can face in the qualifier? You'd assume they would get through it anywho but the above group would be a bloody cracker in fairness.

Theres a possibility for a major group of death alright, theres a 2 or 3 teams in pot 3 who will be pushing for 2nd and Roma in pot 4 with maybe Celtic would fancy their chances aswell to pick up some points.

Again it all depends on the 3rd round but if all seeded teams win here is the unseeded teams for play offs

Sporting CP Lisbon Por 56.276
CSKA Moscow Rus 55.599
Lazio Ita 49.102
Club Brugge Bel 41.440
AS Monaco Fra 31.483


These are the other teams ranked lower than AS Monaco who could also make the play off round

Young Boys Sui 31.375
Sparta Praha Cze 30.825
Fenerbahçe Tur 30.020
Panathinaikos Gre 19.880
Rapid Wien Aut 15.635

Ferris_Bueller

It would be a nice kick up the arse for English clubs if they lost the 4th Champions League spot. Might make them start taking the Europa League serious for once.

Andersonisgod

bullvine wrote: »

Chelsea will do much better this season and the other 3 should get to the knockout stages.

Why should they? If anything the new seeding system could hinder them further. I think we've seen the last few seasons how far behind the top English sides have fallen, getting past the knockout stage is no longer a given.

CSF

The TV money increase comes in this summer right? Should allow teams to strengthen that bit more.

Godot.

CSF wrote: »

The TV money increase comes in this summer right? Should allow teams to strengthen that bit more.

2016

Benimar

There is a real danger that the place could be lost. The coming season will replace the 2010-11 points in the rankings. That's the year Man U got to the final and both Chelsea and Spurs reached the QF. Will be tough to replicate that.

The 3 Italian clubs reached the knockout stages but only Inter made the QF, so the Italian results are easier to replicate.

Iused2likebusts

citytillidie wrote: »

If all seeded teams qualify this will be the pots for the group stage

Pot 1
FC Barcelona Esp 164.999
Chelsea Eng 142.078
Bayern München Ger 154.883
Juventus Ita 95.102
Benfica Por 118.276
Paris Saint-Germain Fra 100.483
Zenit St. Petersburg Rus 90.099
PSV Eindhoven Ned 58.195

Pot 2
Real Madrid Esp 171.999
Atlético Madrid Esp 120.999
FC Porto Por 111.276
Arsenal Eng 110.078
Manchester United Eng 103.078
Valencia Esp 99.999
Bayer Leverkusen Ger 87.883
Manchester City Eng 87.078

Pot 3
Shakhtar Donetsk Ukr 86.033
FC Basel Sui 84.875
Sevilla Esp 80.499
Olympique Lyon Fra 72.983
Ajax Ned 66.195
Dinamo Kiev Ukr 65.033
Olympiakos Piraeus Gre 62.380
Galatasaray Tur 50.020

Pot 4
AS Roma Ita 43.602
FC Salzburg Aut 43.135
Viktoria Plzen Cze 41.825
Steaua Bucuresti Rom 40.259
Celtic Sco 39.080
Borussia Mönchengladbach Ger 33.883
VfL Wolfsburg Ger 31.883
AA Gent Bel 13.440

If I'm interpreting this right the new layout may suit utd as they have the 9th highest ranking and would've been in pot 2 anyway. With the new rules they could draw zenit or psv as a pot 1 team. Under the old system the likes of Real and athletiCo would be in pot 1 and chances of getting a tougher draw increased for utd. City will also be helped by this. Arsenal would've been in pot 1 under old system so it's them that will feel unlucky.

Soon. Very soon it will happen

http://www.football-italia.net/75400/serie-closing-coefficient-gap

AdamD

Won't happen.

28064212

Deleted User wrote: »

Soon. Very soon it will happen

http://www.football-italia.net/75400/serie-closing-coefficient-gap

"Only" 3.72 points between England and Italy. Fails to mention that there are only 2.57 points from England to Germany in second place.

With the very real possibility that there will be three English clubs and only one German club in the last 16 of the Champions League, England are more likely to overtake Germany than Italy are to overtake England

Paz-CCFC

28064212 wrote: »

"Only" 3.72 points between England and Italy. Fails to mention that there are only 2.57 points from England to Germany in second place.

Probably because a year and a half ago, England where nearly 20 points ahead of Italy, so 3.72 is a lot less in comparison. England were ahead of Germany up to last season, so being 2.57 behind is not really noteworthy.

With the very real possibility that there will be three English clubs and only one German club in the last 16 of the Champions League, England are more likely to overtake Germany than Italy are to overtake England

There's also a very real possibility of all seven Germany teams advancing to the knock-out stages of Europe. Though a couple might drop down to the Europa League, that's not really a huge disadvantage to the coefficients. Scoring is the same. You do get bonus points for getting to the last 16 of the Champions League, but you have an extra round in the EL, so it evens out a bit.

Bear in mind, as well, that coefficients are an average of the country's teams. England have 8 teams (two knocked out), Germany have 7 teams (all still in it) and Italy have 6 (one knocked out). So, even if the other two just match the results of the English teams, they'll still pull away/gain ground.

In saying that, I don't think that Italy will overtake England this season. After an initial slump, the English sides have hit back well. I think they'll have enough teams left to do enough. But, over the next three years, they'll lose 3 points, 2 points and 2.5 points on Italy before any match is played. In the next three years v Germany, there'll be no change, then they'll gain 1.5 points and lose 2 points. So, then we might see them drop to fourth.

Harry Palmr

Depressing having to cheer on Utd, City and Chelsea but its for the greater good!

As the article says it's based on the previous 5 years.

Season 2011-2012 drops off come next season and it'll be fairly close then

GLaDOS

28064212 wrote: »

"Only" 3.72 points between England and Italy. Fails to mention that there are only 2.57 points from England to Germany in second place.

With the very real possibility that there will be three English clubs and only one German club in the last 16 of the Champions League, England are more likely to overtake Germany than Italy are to overtake England

German's still have all 7 of their teams in Europe, 2 of England's 8 are out already (West Ham and Southampton), that'll affect the average. Then you have to take into account the 11/12 season dropping off, bring Italy a lot closer next season.

Can't see Italy overtaking England this season, next 2 seasons will be close though.

NIMAN

UEFA will not stand for the super rich EPL losing a CL place, so expect them to change the rules to keep them at 4.

Paully D

Leicester virtually certain to get a Champions League spot now. Bad news for those clubs with Champions League aspirations with this in mind?

NomadicGray

Paully D wrote: »

Leicester virtually certain to get a Champions League spot now. Bad news for those clubs with Champions League aspirations with this in mind?

They'll get at least as far as arsenal so no real difference

LuckyLloyd

Paully D wrote: »

Leicester virtually certain to get a Champions League spot now. Bad news for those clubs with Champions League aspirations with this in mind?

I really think it's the Europa League efforts that will ultimately have the bigger impact.

KaiserGunner

NomadicGray wrote: »

They'll get at least as far as arsenal so no real difference

Well they will be 4th seeds if they make the group stages, so think it would be very difficult for them to reach the knockouts. Nice dig at Arsenal though, a Spurs fan having a dig at Arsenal in Europe is absolutely laughable.

Benimar

KaiserGunner wrote: »

Well they will be 4th seeds if they make the group stages, so think it would be very difficult for them to reach the knockouts. Nice dig at Arsenal though, a Spurs fan having a dig at Arsenal in Europe is absolutely laughable.

Not necessarily. If they win the league they will be top seeds as English champs. If they finish 2nd-4th they will be bottom seeds ok.

KaiserGunner

Benimar wrote: »

Not necessarily. If they win the league they will be top seeds as English champs. If they finish 2nd-4th they will be bottom seeds ok.

Yeah my bad, forgot that they changed the seeding slightly and that they could be top seeds.

Cookiemunster

Well after tonight the coefficient is pretty safe.
Alll 3 English teams through to the next round and only 1 Italian team.
In the Champions league Roma are as good as out and Juve are unlikely to progress, while City are as good as through and Chelsea are still alive.

GLaDOS

Definitely a good night for the English co-effecient, could well put the matter to bed for the next few seasons if Lazio go out in the next round and a few of the English teams progress further.

citytillidie

After tonight

England have 95.0 points and average of 11.875 with 6 teams left
Italy have 68.0 points and average of 11.333 with 3 teams left

leaving the current ranking

3 England 15.250 16.428 16.785 13.571 11.875 73.909 6/ 8
4 Italy 11.357 14.416 14.166 19.000 11.333 70.272 3/ 6

England still need to add on a few more points this is the ranking coming up
3 Italy 14.416 14.166 19.000 11.333 0.000 58.915 0
4 England 16.428 16.785 13.571 11.875 0.000 58.659 0

ScienceNerd

ScienceNerd wrote: »

Definitely a good night for the English co-effecient, could well put the matter to bed for the next few seasons if Lazio go out in the next round and a few of the English teams progress further.

Shows the benefits of a CL place for the winner. Now I expect England to keeps their fourth

Cookiemunster

citytillidie wrote: »

After tonight

England have 95.0 points and average of 11.875 with 6 teams left
Italy have 68.0 points and average of 11.333 with 3 teams left

leaving the current ranking

3 England 15.250 16.428 16.785 13.571 11.875 73.909 6/ 8
4 Italy 11.357 14.416 14.166 19.000 11.333 70.272 3/ 6
England still need to add on a few more points this is the ranking coming up
3 Italy 14.416 14.166 19.000 11.333 0.000 58.915 0
4 England 16.428 16.785 13.571 11.875 0.000 58.659 0

Realistically England have 4 teams left and Italy has 1. Roma are gone and Juventus are unlike to qualify.

citytillidie

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Realistically England have 4 teams left and Italy has 1. Roma are gone and Juventus are unlike to qualify.

England are being hurt by West Ham and Southampton not taking it serious this season and getting knocked out in qualifying rounds

kksaints

How does teams from the same country playing each other affect the coefficient?