Realistic Economy News thread

Villa05

ezra_pound wrote:

A major international investment bank has issued a stark warning about the possibility of Sinn Fein being in government to investors considering taking a punt on Ireland's resurgent economy.

Oh the irony!!!!!!

US investment giant Goldman Sachs, which described Sinn Fein as the "biggest risk" to Ireland's recovery and compared Gerry Adam's party to Syriza in Greece.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greece-to-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html

Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country's already bloated deficit.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-yellow-and-the-green-commerzbank-s-merger-crisis-a-619182.html

But the sorcerer's apprentice of German banking has been under near-constant pressure since Aug. 31, 2008, shortly before the bankruptcy of US investment bank Lehman Brothers plunged the financial markets into chaos. That was when Blessing, in his job for less than four months, announced a Commerzbank takeover of its rival, Dresdner Bank. Since then he has had to declare billions in losses and accept bailout protection, twice, from the German government.

The balance sheets of both banks still have €55 billion ($73 billion) in toxic securities, and if the European Commission had its way in Brussels, it would declare the entire operation a case for restructuring -- i.e., a "bad bank."

Godge

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Yes, as you said.... Ireland will be as poor as the poorest 3rd world state by 2018...

Just 24 months to go....

ezra_pound wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/investors-warned-about-sinn-feins-economic-policies-34282432.html

A major international investment bank has issued a stark warning about the possibility of Sinn Fein being in government to investors considering taking a punt on Ireland's resurgent economy.

Bojack, the Shinners aren't in government yet so we might avoid the worst case scenario.

K-9

Mod:

Please don't post pic or gif only posts please.

Rightwing

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm getting the distinct impression you don't know what you are talking about. Now, I do concede that it can be a complicated topic and is probably beyond the scope of this forum. However, I did stress that it can certainly be proven wrong, this would be blatantly obvious to anyone with a reasonable understanding of the situation.

You appear transfixed with dates, which is nothing more than a wild tangent.

The Fed has backed itself into a corner with its easy money policies, and now they must come out of it. This is when we will see the true health of the world economy. The eyes of the financial world have been waiting for over a year for this and on each occasion the FOMC have lost their nerve. But similar to myself, they know they have no choice but to end ZIRP. The markets are primed for the first tentative steps to be taken next month, perhaps by 1/8 of a percentage point. It will be a gradual process but nonetheless I expect to see a world recession within 18 months of this.

So an update is in order: The Fed did indeed increase by .25% and the results aren't pretty. Most markets are in bear territory as reality is setting in. Some banks are recording big losses. BRICs are worse than I suspected. US growth is anaemic and Japan has run out of options.

We remain short (but some positions are now reduced) across all asset classes except for silver & gold. Weak financials and tech companies in particular are rewarding.

Global worries can feed into the Irish economy, but for the moment the analyst notes I've seen for the Irish economy doesn't forsee too many headwinds over the next 12-18 months.

nice_guy80

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0210/766962-simon-homeless-report/

The number of families in emergency accommodation increased by 90% last year, according to the Simon Communities of Ireland.

The charity says 440 families were living in emergency accommodation at the end of 2014.

This figure had risen to 775 by December 2015.

It says the number of homeless people rose by 40% over the same period.

There are currently 5,241 people in emergency accommodation, including 1,616 children.

*********************************
Absolutely scandalous

nice_guy80

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0210/766962-simon-homeless-report/

The number of families in emergency accommodation increased by 90% last year, according to the Simon Communities of Ireland.

The charity says 440 families were living in emergency accommodation at the end of 2014.

This figure had risen to 775 by December 2015.

It says the number of homeless people rose by 40% over the same period.

There are currently 5,241 people in emergency accommodation, including 1,616 children.

*********************************
Absolutely scandalous

BoatMad

doom doom doom , I tell ye, doom...................

Rightwing

nice_guy80 wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0210/766962-simon-homeless-report/

The number of families in emergency accommodation increased by 90% last year, according to the Simon Communities of Ireland.

The charity says 440 families were living in emergency accommodation at the end of 2014.

This figure had risen to 775 by December 2015.

It says the number of homeless people rose by 40% over the same period.

There are currently 5,241 people in emergency accommodation, including 1,616 children.

*********************************
Absolutely scandalous

I wouldn't be worried about them, I hope they are paying a large contribution for this.

BoJack Horseman

nice_guy80 wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0210/766962-simon-homeless-report/

The number of families in emergency accommodation increased by 90% last year, according to the Simon Communities of Ireland.

The charity says 440 families were living in emergency accommodation at the end of 2014.

This figure had risen to 775 by December 2015.

It says the number of homeless people rose by 40% over the same period.

There are currently 5,241 people in emergency accommodation, including 1,616 children.

*********************************
Absolutely scandalous

It absolutely is scandalous.

Funding for homelessness is the highest it has ever been... ever.

Results seem scarce.

I'd love to see some of the homeless charities face some scrutiny, open up their books & see where the money is going.

BoatMad

The number of families in emergency accommodation increased by 90% last year, according to the Simon Communities of Ireland.

The charity says 440 families were living in emergency accommodation at the end of 2014.

This figure had risen to 775 by December 2015.

It says the number of homeless people rose by 40% over the same period.

There are currently 5,241 people in emergency accommodation, including 1,616 children.

*********************************
Absolutely scandalous

everybody can tell us our problems. how about you tell us a few workable solutions .....??

BoatMad

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

and if you travel , you will also see deprivation and hopelessness on a scale that doesnt exist in ireland at all.

nice_guy80

BoatMad wrote: »

everybody can tell us our problems. how about you tell us a few workable solutions .....??

build some houses!
build apartments with a mixed ownership model - works in other countries


People are losing their rented accommodation due to rent hikes

BoatMad

nice_guy80 wrote: »

build some houses!

some are being built. but the economic conditions dont exist outside Dublin to make them play at the moment. also its takes times to get the construction industry re-skilled and functioning. You cant wave a magic wand.

build apartments with a mixed ownership model - works in other countries

Explain,

People are losing their rented accommodation due to rent hikes

Thats a market issue, what do you suggest , rent freezes are problematic , look what just happened as a result.

But I agree, domestic rental tenure should be on the same basis as commercial leases. The landlord should not be able to use selling as a reason to evict you for example.

nice_guy80

BoatMad wrote: »

some are being built. but the economic conditions dont exist outside Dublin to make them play at the moment. also its takes times to get the construction industry re-skilled and functioning. You cant wave a magic wand.


Explain,


Thats a market issue, what do you suggest , rent freezes are problematic , look what just happened as a result.

But I agree, domestic rental tenure should be on the same basis as commercial leases. The landlord should not be able to use selling as a reason to evict you for example.

There is a huge need for new, well designed and insulated houses outside of Dublin.
There is actually a huge shortage of housing available to buy in the likes of Meath, Westmeath, Offaly, Kildare etc
Similarly in Galway etc

BoatMad

nice_guy80 wrote: »

There is a huge need for new, well designed and insulated houses outside of Dublin.
There is actually a huge shortage of housing available to buy in the likes of Meath, Westmeath, Offaly, Kildare etc
Similarly in Galway etc

yes but house prices are not at a point where its attractive for developers

nice_guy80

BoatMad wrote: »

yes but house prices are not at a point where its attractive for developers

the state needs to build them. like in other countries. provide actual social mixed housing schemes.
put the finance in place, establish building co-ops, get permission, build, rent them out at a modest return to finance the borrowings.

except, the state washes its hands of every problem out there and farms it out to the private sector or the charity sector

BoatMad

nice_guy80 wrote: »

the state needs to build them. like in other countries. provide actual social mixed housing schemes.
put the finance in place, establish building co-ops, get permission, build, rent them out at a modest return to finance the borrowings.

except, the state washes its hands of every problem out there and farms it out to the private sector or the charity sector

State will build 1700 houses starting this year , not a bad number

nice_guy80

BoatMad wrote: »

State will build 1700 houses starting this year , not a bad number

1500 children homeless

BoatMad

nice_guy80 wrote: »

1500 children homeless

A house for each of them

lot of " whingers " here

andrew

nice_guy80 wrote: »

1500 children homeless

How many families is that? Presumably there's more than 1 child per family, on average? You only need to provide accommodation for each family, not each individual.

realitykeeper

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

The Irish economy is sustained with confetti currency from the ECB. The confetti pays the balance of the fiscal deficit and it maintains employment and pay at levels that would be impossible without it. The Irish economy needs to get to a place where it has a fiscal surplus and a debt reduction program and crucially it needs to do this without recourse to ECB confetti. The economy needs to behave as though the ECB were being responsible.

Geuze

BoatMad wrote: »

yes but house prices are not at a point where its attractive for developers

Because costs are too high.

Land costs are way too high.

Finance costs are way too high, as follows:

60% funded by senior debt - interest rate is 5-6%, even though ECB rate is 0%

20% funded by private equity - they expect 12-14% interest - unreal

mariaalice

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/credit-unions-turn-away-cash-as-bank-rules-force-change-35524415.html

That's the answer for financing projects get Credit unions to invest especially as they are being charged for lodging money with the banks.