NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

helimachoptor

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

skippymac6

helimachoptor wrote: »

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

With two rookie QBs and two half decent defences you'd have to think unders in that one. Be an interesting game all the same to see the two rookies if nothing else.

Hulk Hands

helimachoptor wrote: »

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

Think the Titans are a bet in this one, I took the +3.5 at 5/6 there recently. Would still take +3 at evs. I'd have the teams rated about even (maybe even the Titans slightly higher), given that Mariota has looked the better QB in preseason, the D looking a lot better, and the Bucs looking horrible in a few games. With the Bucs home field advantage being worth SFA (1.5 pts maybe), this line has the Bucs rated a better team, which they arent imo at this stage

matthew8

Titans and Buccs is a rotten game to call, they were both desperate last year. To only manage 2 wins in their divisions is horrible. Of the 2 I would say the Buccaneers were slightly better last year, and I think Winston will upgrade their passing game more than Mariota will upgrade the Titans' simply because the Buccaneers passing game was worse last year and he's probably got the better receiving corps.

Bills +2.5 is very interesting I think. I'm not a big Tyrod Taylor fan but he can't be that bad to beat out Manuel and Cassel. The Colts' passing game should be improved with Johnson there but the Bills pass defense was exceptional last year, even Rodgers struggled against them. They're really not that much worse than the Colts but are rated so far below them and I don't get it. Lions +3 against the Chargers too, they won 2 more games last year and the Chargers aren't a team that really thrive on home field advantage. Probably go for Panthers +3 also, Jaguars' defense is awful and after so many poor years I'd be surprised for them to be competitive.

helimachoptor

Yeah I'm leaning towards doing nothing in week one, my strategy was pretty successful last year and I got my stake back several times over but titans game is hard to call tbh

skippymac6

The more I look at it the more I like Big Ben to have a 300 yard game tonight. I think without Pouncey and Bell, that their running game is going to struggle to get off the ground. I think Big Ben is going to have to connect with Brown, Wheaton, Miller etc early and often to keep it close. Also, the Patriots front 7 is very strong while their secondary is anything but with the loss of Browner and esp Revis. Ben will be without Bryant and also Bell who is a big target for him out of the backfield too, but think he can certainly spread it around enough to get to 300.

I suppose if he is going to get anywhere near 300 yards then Brown is going to have to have a big game. He will more than draw the attention of the SB hero Malcom Butler and while Butler is a a good young player, he might find it tough against a genuine top 3 receiver in the league. Brown's yards are set at 95.5 so if the weather is decent, I'll take both of these bets later.

glued

helimachoptor wrote: »

Yeah I'm leaning towards doing nothing in week one, my strategy was pretty successful last year and I got my stake back several times over but titans game is hard to call tbh

Yeah, I'm trying to avoid doing anything this week. Steelers @ 5/2 isn't a bad bet considering it's the first week of the season.

I'd definitely avoid the Giants - Cowboys game this week. Too much going on from either side to really predict a winner although on paper the Cowboys should be beating us by a score or two. Not really comfortable backing any team this week.

UnitedIrishman

Finding it hard to find any edge in tonight's game. Would probably have been on the side of the Steelers on the handicap of Bell and Bryant were available but then the line would be different.

The overs is fairly high but both sides will be going to the air tonight a lot more. Might have a small bet on that.

Guffy

Couldn't find anything tonight.

Gronk ftd 1/2 point @ 6/1 is my bit of interest but honestly could have easily left it

JaMarcusHustle

gufc21 wrote: »

Couldn't find anything tonight.

Gronk ftd 1/2 point @ 6/1 is my bit of interest but honestly could have easily left it

Drinks on you

Guffy

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Drinks on you

Ha if they had double odds in yet I'd be sorted lol

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

The more I look at it the more I like Big Ben to have a 300 yard game tonight. I think without Pouncey and Bell, that their running game is going to struggle to get off the ground. I think Big Ben is going to have to connect with Brown, Wheaton, Miller etc early and often to keep it close. Also, the Patriots front 7 is very strong while their secondary is anything but with the loss of Browner and esp Revis. Ben will be without Bryant and also Bell who is a big target for him out of the backfield too, but think he can certainly spread it around enough to get to 300.

I suppose if he is going to get anywhere near 300 yards then Brown is going to have to have a big game. He will more than draw the attention of the SB hero Malcom Butler and while Butler is a a good young player, he might find it tough against a genuine top 3 receiver in the league. Brown's yards are set at 95.5 so if the weather is decent, I'll take both of these bets later.

Both prop bets come in with Brown looking very potent. I'd say he's numbers might be set at 100.5 going forward. I think the Steelers will be right up there come the end of the season but that defence looked porous. If the opposing QB has any sort of time, they won't have a problem in tearing them apart

NFLBettingTips

Alternative Handicap

Green Bay -4.5
Miami -2.5
Dallas -4.5
Baltimore +7.5

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

I certainly agre with you on the Chiefs bet. I think that they may go off favourite by kick off. Their defence is loaded and with Eric Berry back too now, they will be fired up for that game. It's hard not to root for the Texans after hard knocks but without Arian Foster I don't think they'll be able to do much on offense. They'll need to get used to not having him there so the first few weeks could be a struggle. Chiefs to win and under 40 points if you wanted to chance a double.

I really like the Dolphins -4 too. Missed the -3 last week but I still fully expect them to dominate. The Redskins offensive line is poor at best and I think Suh and Wake will be giving Cousins fits all day. On the flip side, even though the Redskins have some good pass rushers themselves, I think that Tannehill is finally showing some improvement and he has some very decent skill players around him now with Miller, Stills, Parker, Landry and Cameron. I expect the Fins to win with something to spare.

Bengals -3.5 at the Raiders seems a good shout too. The Bengals are absolutely loaded on offence. Can you imagine Luck, Rodgers etc on that team? Hill and Bernard at running back. A healthy (hopefully) AJ Green & Marvin Jones, Sanu and Tyler Eiffert! If Dalton can be anyway effective they should average close to 30 points per game. There is a lot of optimism in Oakland this year with Mack, Carr, Amari Cooper etc all looking promising but the Bengals have reached the playoffs four straight years, I expect them to take care of business here.

While I don't like close to TD sized spreads for an away side. I do think GB will be too good for the Bears. I genuinely believe that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL and if Cutler doesn't perform, that they could be one of teams contending for the number 1 overall pick. That might seem extreme but their defence was shocking last year, they've lost their best receiver and the QB just can't play consistently at all. I expect Rodgers to pick their secondary apart and put up 30 points and win by 10 so GB -5.5 for me in the live Sky game.

The last bet I really like but is not priced up yet is Andrew Luck over 'x' amount of pass attempts. That Bills defence is ferocious and the Colts, even though they've added Frank Gore, are not a good running team. I think they will struggle to establish the run and might find themselves behind early on. I think they will lean on Luck's arm and while he might not put up gaudy numbers, I expect him to attempt a lot of passes. Luck averaged 38.5 pass attempts last year but I think he might hit 40 this weekend. Obviously the fly in the ointment is if Buffallo can run McCoy all over the Colts D and keep luck off the field for long periods. But even if this were to happen, I think that would only encourage the Colts to abandon the running game and let Luck do the majority of the work.

Chiefs win, Dolphins -4, GB -5.5 and Luck attempts 49 passes. Just need Dalton not to mess up for the sweep

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

should have made the over bet :eek:

That_Guy

That_Guy wrote: »

Gone for the following 4 team accumulator. No big stakes given that it's only week 1. More for interest than anything.

Patriots (-7)
Chiefs (+1)
Dolphins (-3.5)
Bengals (-3.5)

Quick question for those in the know. This bet looks like it's going to come through.... However, beside the Pats/Steelers game it says push. Does this mean that if the rest of the three come through, I'll only get my original stake back or will I get returns on just the other three teams?

Or nothing at all. :pac:

Paully D

That_Guy wrote: »

Quick question for those in the know. This bet looks like it's going to come through.... However, beside the Pats/Steelers game it says push. Does this mean that if the rest of the three come through, I'll only get my original stake back or will I get returns on just the other three teams?

Or nothing at all. :pac:

Turns into a treble mate.

That_Guy

Paully D wrote: »

Turns into a treble mate.

I'll be moderately rich!!! Providing the Raiders don't mount some sort of mad comeback.

skippymac6

Week 2 is a hard betting angle to approach as teams in week 1 could have looked better or worse than what they actually are and the form lines still need some sorting out. With that in mind I like a few teams this week that lost, and a couple that won! I like the Giants -2 against the Falcons for a start. The Giants did have some opportune TDs against the Cowboys but they played a solid game and were in position to win it before the messing at the end and the lond TD drive from the Cowboys. Odell Beckham was nearly non existent and I think the offence will improve a lot this week. The Falcons were always going to get a performance on Monday against the NFL's most hyped team, at home, on Primetime and with a new coach at the helm. I think they will have a bit of comedown this week and I believe the G men will get it done.

I also like the Bengals -3 at home to the Chargers. Cincy don't get talked about a lot with Dalton at QB but they have a top 5 Offence up there and their Defence is par for league standards too I think. The Chargers played excellent in the second half last week but I think Cincy might have too much for them. They match up well with them in my mind and I'll be taking the -3.

I fancy Steelers -5. They should have been closer to the Pats last week but they were wasteful from the 30 yard line inwards. Much like the Falcons, the 49rs were being wrote off by the media and behind a raucous crowd on Monday they put a Vikings team that looked like they were believing all the off-season hype about them, firmly to the sword. The Steelers are still without Bell but I'm not sure they would get much out of that niners D on the ground anyway. I think Big Ben puts this game on his shoulders and tehy get out to an early lead and force Kap to throw the ball as opposed to handing off to Hyde and force some turnovers.

Packers -3 won't be everyone's cup of tea but I put a lot of stock into the morale/confidence/emotion etc of a team and no team will be targetting a game this week like the Packers. When the schedule was announced they would have circled this primetime slot after the NFC championship debacle and even though they did not look spectacular by any means last week, I think they can put it all together this week and make a statement. I would be more confident if Seattle had not have lost week 1 and if Kam Chancellor comes back this week, that will give them even more impetus, but I just feel that GB owes Seattle and they will take their chance at home on Sunday night.

Looking at tonight's game, I expect a defensive struggle but at o/u 41.5, that is very low. I am going to stake a small bet on Broncos +3.5. Manning has rightly been criticised in the media this week (and most of the summer) and this bet really depends on the Broncos being able to establish the run which they were not able to do against the Ravens. It will be a wild atmosphere in Arrowhead tonight and I am taking a stab on the Broncos D and running game to do enough to get the Broncos over the line or within a field goal.

Paully D

Broncos ML for me tonight at 31/20 (Bet Victor).

helimachoptor

lads i dont really do any complicated bets

If the titans are -1, does that mean they have to win by 2 points or more for the bet to pay?

Paully D

helimachoptor wrote: »

lads i dont really do any complicated bets

If the titans are -1, does that mean they have to win by 2 points or more for the bet to pay?

Yep and if they win by 1 you'll get your stake refunded.

helimachoptor

Paully D wrote: »

Yep and if they win by 1 you'll get your stake refunded.

may try that rather than the over as im unsure what way its going to go points wise

NFLBettingTips

Kansas -2.5 10/11
Kelce anytime TD 13/10

Johnny_Fontane

gone with:
Patriots - just think at pretty much even money, you cannot discount them.
Giants - tough first week loss, looked like their game was there.
Bengals - tough to beat at home
Packers
Colts

about 9/1....

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

I like the Bengals (-3.5) and Dolphins (-3.5). The Raiders won't be up to much I'd imagine and the Redskins are the definition of a shambles. I'll probably do that double for week 1. Don't want to go too mad as I find the first couple of weeks often quite unpredictable.

Paully D wrote: »

Broncos ML for me tonight at 31/20 (Bet Victor).

Good start so far.

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Looking at tonight's game, I expect a defensive struggle but at o/u 41.5, that is very low. I am going to stake a small bet on Broncos +3.5. Manning has rightly been criticised in the media this week (and most of the summer) and this bet really depends on the Broncos being able to establish the run which they were not able to do against the Ravens. It will be a wild atmosphere in Arrowhead tonight and I am taking a stab on the Broncos D and running game to do enough to get the Broncos over the line or within a field goal.

Very lucky with last night's bet. The Chiefs were by far the better team but I was delighted to see Manning have success on the last drive to tie the game. That Broncos defence is scary good and if Kubiak swallows his pride a bit and lets manning operate out of the shotgun, they are serious contenders this year.

helimachoptor

another betting question..

On PP a Tri-Bet list the Titans @ -7.5, so basically they need win by 8 or more?

Guffy

1/4 point scott chandler 2 or more tds at 22/1

Given rex ryan will triple cover gronk i think the value is in their other te scoring. Not interested in a big play here but a small bet for interests sake.

1 point cards -2

The bears are worse than last weeks performance v packers. Also palmer is an elite qb when healthy

2 points titans -1.5

This is an absolute gut shot gamble.

Hulk Hands

Redskins +3.5, Houston +3 for me today, to add to the Titans to win at 6/5 I backed earlier in the week. GL all

Paully D

Ravens -4.5 at EVS (Paddy Power).

helimachoptor

should have done the over like i planned

Guffy

Ya.. so my gut sucks lol.. not too much lost though just the 1 point so up 2 on the season after week 2

skippymac6

Giants will be sick about that 4th quarter, they had that game well in hand.

Guffy

A bit late putting this up but 2 for SNF

over 48.5 @ 10/11 3 points... Hey its prime time football

Rogers any time TD @ 5/2 1 point

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Week 2 is a hard betting angle to approach as teams in week 1 could have looked better or worse than what they actually are and the form lines still need some sorting out. With that in mind I like a few teams this week that lost, and a couple that won! I like the Giants -2 against the Falcons for a start. The Giants did have some opportune TDs against the Cowboys but they played a solid game and were in position to win it before the messing at the end and the lond TD drive from the Cowboys. Odell Beckham was nearly non existent and I think the offence will improve a lot this week. The Falcons were always going to get a performance on Monday against the NFL's most hyped team, at home, on Primetime and with a new coach at the helm. I think they will have a bit of comedown this week and I believe the G men will get it done.

I also like the Bengals -3 at home to the Chargers. Cincy don't get talked about a lot with Dalton at QB but they have a top 5 Offence up there and their Defence is par for league standards too I think. The Chargers played excellent in the second half last week but I think Cincy might have too much for them. They match up well with them in my mind and I'll be taking the -3.

I fancy Steelers -5. They should have been closer to the Pats last week but they were wasteful from the 30 yard line inwards. Much like the Falcons, the 49rs were being wrote off by the media and behind a raucous crowd on Monday they put a Vikings team that looked like they were believing all the off-season hype about them, firmly to the sword. The Steelers are still without Bell but I'm not sure they would get much out of that niners D on the ground anyway. I think Big Ben puts this game on his shoulders and tehy get out to an early lead and force Kap to throw the ball as opposed to handing off to Hyde and force some turnovers.

Packers -3 won't be everyone's cup of tea but I put a lot of stock into the morale/confidence/emotion etc of a team and no team will be targetting a game this week like the Packers. When the schedule was announced they would have circled this primetime slot after the NFC championship debacle and even though they did not look spectacular by any means last week, I think they can put it all together this week and make a statement. I would be more confident if Seattle had not have lost week 1 and if Kam Chancellor comes back this week, that will give them even more impetus, but I just feel that GB owes Seattle and they will take their chance at home on Sunday night.

Looking at tonight's game, I expect a defensive struggle but at o/u 41.5, that is very low. I am going to stake a small bet on Broncos +3.5. Manning has rightly been criticised in the media this week (and most of the summer) and this bet really depends on the Broncos being able to establish the run which they were not able to do against the Ravens. It will be a wild atmosphere in Arrowhead tonight and I am taking a stab on the Broncos D and running game to do enough to get the Broncos over the line or within a field goal.

Just the Giants wrong. Few upsets with the jags, raiders and skins getting the job done. Few teams have to bounce back next week now

Guffy

gufc21 wrote: »

A bit late putting this up but 2 for SNF

over 48.5 @ 10/11 3 points... Hey its prime time football

Rogers any time TD @ 5/2 1 point

Down another 1/2 point.

+1.5 on the season

PokeHerKing

Colts to beat the spread tonight? Figure they're overdue to score some points after last week

Paully D

Hoping to get back to winning ways after my Ravens bet lost last week to spoil an excellent start.

Giants -2.5 at 9/10 (Boyles) tonight. Good luck all.

That_Guy

Paully D wrote: »

Hoping to get back to winning ways after my Ravens bet lost last week to spoil an excellent start.

Giants -2.5 at 9/10 (Boyles) tonight. Good luck all.

Going for that bet myself. I just can't believe that the Giants will continue to shoot themselves in the foot... I just can't!!

NFLBettingTips

Alternative Handicap: Giants -2.5 9/10
Total Rushing + Receiving Yards: Shane Vereen Over 58.5 5/6

Eli Manning anytime touchdown 12/1
Has 3 rushing TD's in his career vs Redskins. Worth a small punt.

skippymac6

Tonight I like the Redskins +3.5. Quite rightly a lot of pundits are leaning towards the Giants as it's a "must win" scenario for them but after the first two games, the redskins look the better team to me. Their defence is playing lights out with Jason Hatcher finally repaying the faith they showed in him and Kerrigan and Murphy looking good off the edges. The Giants have a very good offence but keep finding ways to lose close games and I think it might happen again this week.

Steelers -1.5 is one of those so called "obvious" bets that looks nailed on but the Rams are a different proposition in their dome. I just feel that with Bell back this week, their offence will step up to another level and they'll need it against that great defence. The Steelers offensive line has been quietly effective the first two games and I think they can continue to give Big Ben enough time to find Brown, Wheaton, Bell etc to get the win.

The Colts -3 would have been about -5/6 if they beat the Jets. The one big problem about the Colts is their offensive line. They don't generate enough sacks either probably and they seem from the outside as a bit of a "soft" team. However, I think they do enough in this one to get their first win of the year. Mariota came down to earth last week and I just feel that Luck might strap this game on his back and answer a few critics that have come out again about his top 5 QB status claims.

Last bet is Seahawks -12.5. Yes it's a big spread but the Bears with Jimmy Clausen as their starting QB might be heading into a buzz saw this Sunday. The Hawks are looking for their first win, they might have Chancellor back, and they are going to look to dominate this week and remind everyone that they are the two time defending NFC champs. I think they make life hell for Clausen and co. and get out of the blocks early and keep the pressure on for 60 minutes.

Guffy

Put my bet on earlier so odds changed slightly.

Had hoped to do giants -3 and over 44 but the market no longer offered by 365.

Went for obj 2 or more td's at 19/4 (currently 4/1) couple of reasons i took this.
Firstly pp had this as their enhanced bet @ 11/4 so the value is pretty good here.
Secondly the Redskins secondary sucks. I mean its bad. Their front 7 is pretty good too so eli will have to throw it about.
Finally, OBJ scored 3 last year against the skins (22/1 @ time i placed bet). Now i know he will be double teamed here but feck it. If he gets one early it'll be a decent sweat at nearly 5's

2 points OBJ 2 or more td's 19/4 (i believe its 4/1 now)
Also 1/2 point donnell anytime 19/10

eagle eye

Most on the Giants and I'm gonna say it anyways, the best way to be a big loser in any sport is to back bad teams. These are two bad teams imo and I would never bet on either of them.

skippymac6

eagle eye wrote: »

Most on the Giants and I'm gonna say it anyways, the best way to be a big loser in any sport is to back bad teams. These are two bad teams imo and I would never bet on either of them.

Yep you're right there. The Giants were the better team but the Redskins constantly shooting themselves in the foot with mind numbing turnovers and costly penalties, either extending Giants drives, or calling back big plays of their own. The Skins much vaunted O-line weren't able to generate much on the ground and while Cousins wasn't sacked a lot, he was rushed into a few throws and that's when he's really bad. Both his picks were thrown into tight coverage and would have only been 3-4 yard completions. He under threw Reed at least twice for sure TDs and missed other open receivers. I'd expect the Redskins to reverse the form later in the year but they won't have much of a say late into the season if Cousins doesn't scrub up his game

Guffy

eagle eye wrote: »

Most on the Giants and I'm gonna say it anyways, the best way to be a big loser in any sport is to back bad teams. These are two bad teams imo and I would never bet on either of them.

Bollox. Giants spread was the play last night. I just didn't see any value in it. Had bet365 offered the double market the pick i wanted would have been in. I would have been fortunate granted but the same way i was unfortunate the ones i went for didn't come up.
Donell was targeted on the 5 early, had he brought it in there was enough space to make a move for the td. Had jones not fumbled the giants couldn't have been so cautious in the following drive eating the clock. Giving beckham another chance in the 40-20 to take one in.

Giants was the obvious play btw because the skins are a bad team. Mismanagement was the only reason they lost the first two games. It was also a must win game for them, at home against a terrible secondary. just cause the teams are bad, Doesn't mean there is no money to be made.

In saying that -.5 on the season

StringerBell

Donnell was a pain in my ass last night, still would agree wholeheartedly Giants to cover was the bet to be on last night, 2.5 was too skinny

soadtool

I've done panthers to beat the spread and lions on money-line. Just a fancy. Definitely not a tip

Paully D

Colts -3.5 (21/20, Bet Victor)

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Colts -3.5 (21/20, Bet Victor)

That's a tough loss.