NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

StringerBell

Where do you see the talent of the Colts? They have a potentially great QB, who is already very good, but has been hampered this year due to the terrible O-line, his own poor play and he is in no way helped by an awful defence.

I think the Pats should be 10-12point faves, and they now are 10 points I believe in some places so I am certainly happy I got on at -7.

I think the 7/2 was too skinny on the Colts as I have already said, and I wouldn't go nuts on 4/1 but its a hell of a lot better then the 7/2 you were saying originally.

I price the game as Colts being almost a 5/1 dog at home tbh, I really don't give them much chance at all of coming out with a win, I just don't see where they hurt the Pats enough. Its possible they can surprise, of course it is. But at the prices that were available, and tbh that still are available the play is the Pats. They have too much firepower for the Colts to live with them.

The Colts were arguably better last year and were humiliated twice, this was before they put an even bigger target on their own back from every single Patriots for this year.

With any luck this is going to be bloody

StringerBell

Pats -11 @23/20 is a bet I would take before taking the Colts straight up at 4/1 for what its worth

Hulk Hands

StringerBell wrote: »

Where do you see the talent of the Colts? They have a potentially great QB, who is already very good, but has been hampered this year due to the terrible O-line, his own poor play and he is in no way helped by an awful defence.

They made the AFC championship game last year and have gone 11-5 the last 3 seasons in a row. They're hardly a bad team, or ones you're used to seeing as double digit home underdogs.

StringerBell wrote: »

I think the Pats should be 10-12point faves, and they now are 10 points I believe in some places so I am certainly happy I got on at -7.

Given the past struggles of the Colts against the Pats, and the Pats likely not letting up with a lead, I don't think the spread is correlated normally with the Match odds, hence i'm not touching +10 personally. That number is a lock to drop however, once the mugs punt themselves out and the pros come in when the limits are raised Sat nite or Sunday morn


It's a moot point for me at the moment anyway, unless some firm with shops make 4s available. Massively short on accounts at the moment.

Oh, there's 2.08 available there on the Pats -10 with Pinnacle, so you'd have to be insane to take -11 at 2.15 given what an important number 10 is

skippymac6

While I think the saints will have a better performance tonight than they have had in their last match against the Eagles, it's tough to see past the Falcons tonight. However I do expect Brees to try and put this game on his back and try his damdest to get a result and silence the critics. The Falcons have the number 1 rush defence in the league and even with the addition of Alex Mack and CJ Spiller, the Saints rank 29th in rush yards per game this year. The Falcons excellent run defence causes teams to throw early and often against them and this is probably why they rank 29th in the nfl against the pass with nearly an average of 290 yards per game against them. Now they haven't exactly faced superstar QBs with the likes of Weeden, Hoyer/Mallet, Bradford, Eli and Cousins being their foes. I think Brees will be slinging for most of the night and am certainly taking the over 300.5 yards on betfair offered

Hulk Hands

Backed the Bills there this evening at +3 (small bit of 3.5 available) vs the bengals. Bills get 4pts for homefield, so this line is saying the Bengals are 7 - 7.5pts better than the Bills with Manuel. While they're very good, im not sure it's to that extent. Good spot here for the Bills also with a perceived "easier" opponent next week, while a massive amount of effort wouldve gone into last weeks Seahawks win on behalf of the Bengals. Nice getting points in low scoring games (total 42), with a good D that should keep you in the game

padraig_f

I'm not betting this year, but impossible to believe there's any value in betting on an undefeated team such as the Pats. The key to profitable betting is finding underrated teams, and a team that is undefeated will rarely be underrated.

I also think the revenge factor is overstated. It's well played out in the media, so you're not getting any angle there. If anything, I'd go the other way and say the it's an overrated aspect, and the thing to do is fade it. The Pats are too professional to deviate from their regular gameplan much because of 'revenge', and I think they're always a well-motivated team.

The spread is +9 at home at the moment, which at home, is the type of spread you associate with the worst team in the league playing the best. I think the Colts are far from the worst team in the league, and just checking there, it seems like Luck is likely to play, so that's the only side you could take.

padraig_f

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Backed the Bills there this evening at +3 (small bit of 3.5 available) vs the bengals.

Yeah, I think people should be betting against all these undefeated teams.

Edit: well to clarify, I wouldn't say to bet against all of them every game, but that going against them is the only side you should be considering.

eagle eye

padraig_f wrote: »

I'm not betting this year, but impossible to believe there's any value in betting on an undefeated team such as the Pats. The key to profitable betting is finding underrated teams, and a team that is undefeated will rarely be underrated.

I also think the revenge factor is overstated. It's well played out in the media, so you're not getting any angle there. If anything, I'd go the other way and say the it's an overrated aspect, and the thing to do is fade it. The Pats are too professional to deviate from their regular gameplan much because of 'revenge', and I think they're always a well-motivated team.

The spread is +9 at home at the moment, which at home, is the type of spread you associate with the worst team in the league playing the best. I think the Colts are far from the worst team in the league, and just checking there, it seems like Luck is likely to play, so that's the only side you could take.

It's not about finding something hidden but it's great if you can.

Fact of the matter is the Patriots have beaten the line in their last three games. The season opener is the only game where they failed to beat the spread.
The Colts are 1-3 against the spread and 0-2 at home.

The recent history between these teams suggest the Patriots will beat this spread, the current form of the two teams suggest that the Patriots will beat this spread. The stats so far this season suggest the Patriots will beat this spread.

It's one of the standout bets of the weekend.

I'm a Patriots fan but don't mistake what I'm saying here as being swayed in any way by the fact that I am.

eagle eye

Just to add, Andrew Luck has played against the Patriots four times and the closest game was a 43-22 win for the Patriots in Gillette. The only time they met in Lucas Oil Stadium the final score was 42-20 win. Luck is 0-4 against the Patriots in his career to date.

SameOleJay

Zona -3 at Pittsburgh looks outstanding to me.

Hulk Hands

eagle eye wrote: »

The recent history between these teams suggest the Patriots will beat this spread, the current form of the two teams suggest that the Patriots will beat this spread. The stats so far this season suggest the Patriots will beat this spread.

Those reasons are why the spread is set at 9, and not 3. Remember that people who study the game for a living, have Maths algorithims and models to help them, and who understand gambling completely are perfectly happy to take your money on -9, along with the vast majority of the rest of the betting public. That's not to say that odds compilers and the market are always correct (we wouldn't be betting if they were). But if there's one team the markets are going to try and suck value out of, it's the very well backed Patriots.

About 10 regular season games ago, the Pats went into Indy as 3.5pt underdogs. While that spread in hindsight was wrong, it's still amazing how theres been a 12-13 pt swing since then, with most of the key peices still in place.

I looked a lot more into this last night, still baffled by the prices. After having a scout around twitter and forums, it seems the vast majority of pros are staying away from this game. That spread is so massively infalted can only mean that Luck is either questionable to play, or nowhere near 100%. That's the consensus in Vegas at the moment anyway. So probably no bet for me either.

eagle eye

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Those reasons are why the spread is set at 9, and not 3. Remember that people who study the game for a living, have Maths algorithims and models to help them, and who understand gambling completely are perfectly happy to take your money on -9, along with the vast majority of the rest of the betting public. That's not to say that odds compilers and the market are always correct (we wouldn't be betting if they were). But if there's one team the markets are going to try and suck value out of, it's the very well backed Patriots.

About 10 regular season games ago, the Pats went into Indy as 3.5pt underdogs. While that spread in hindsight was wrong, it's still amazing how theres been a 12-13 pt swing since then, with most of the key peices still in place.

I looked a lot more into this last night, still baffled by the prices. After having a scout around twitter and forums, it seems the vast majority of pros are staying away from this game. That spread is so massively infalted can only mean that Luck is either questionable to play, or nowhere near 100%. That's the consensus in Vegas at the moment anyway. So probably no bet for me either.

Well the decision on whether Luck plays is important and I'm of the belief that it will be hard to give him a start unless he is 100% considering how important he is to that team and his age.

Even then Luck has a horrible record against the Patriots with a 21 point loss the best result he has to this point in his career. And even before he got injured he wasn't playing very well this year.

It'll be interesting to see what way the line moves early tomorrow, if it moves back to 7.5 I'm gonna get very heavy into it.

poldebruin

Nothing jumps out at me this week, but got the Pats -7.5 earlier in the week, so had a small bet on them.

Regarding Luck playing - in my mind, while it increases the likelihood of the Colts chances of winning the game - paradoxically, it also increases the likelihood of them getting blown out, the way Luck has been turning the ball over. Hasselbeck, by comparison has been very steady and cautious with the ball. A less than 100% Luck may be a liability in the game.

JaMarcusHustle

poldebruin wrote: »

Regarding Luck playing - in my mind, while it increases the likelihood of the Colts chances of winning the game - paradoxically, it also increases the likelihood of them getting blown out

It's all well and good saying something like that, but that's actually impossible

poldebruin

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

It's all well and good saying something like that, but that's actually impossible

Not at all if you think about it. Luck takes chances and has the talent to singlehandedly win a game on his day. But those same traits can lead to him tossing interceptions, fumbling, attempting low % passes. When these things all go wrong it can lead to a blow out.

A cautious, non risk taking QB may not win a game, but will be more likely to keep it close due to lack of turnovers/mistakes and consequentially not having to chase a game when things go wrong. Look at Jerry Jones benching of Brandon Weeden this week as an example. He was completing 70% of his passes, and doing a decent job - but he wasn't taking chances, and wasn't giving the Cowboys a chance to win as a result.

JaMarcusHustle

I know what you're saying, or at least what you're trying to say. But it's physically impossible for him to give them both a better chance of winning and of losing at the same time.

What you're trying to say is, it depends which Andrew Luck turns up on the day.

poldebruin

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

I know what you're saying, or at least what you're trying to say. But it's physically impossible for him to give them both a better chance of winning and of losing at the same time.

I agree it's impossible to give both a better chance of winning and a bigger chance of losing, but that's not what I was saying, he gives a bigger chance of winning (although I don't think either QB is going to give the Colts a win this week) but also a bigger prospect of things going south fast, and hence a blowout.

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

What you're trying to say is, it depends which Andrew Luck turns up on the day.

Kinda.... this season's version of Luck has played terribly, almost unrecognisably badly, but his ceiling is still higher and floor lower than Hasselbeck at the moment.

Cue Colts win by 21.

padraig_f

eagle eye wrote: »

Fact of the matter is the Patriots have beaten the line in their last three games. The season opener is the only game where they failed to beat the spread.
The Colts are 1-3 against the spread and 0-2 at home.

All the more reason to bet against them. As they continue to beat the spread, their price gets inflated and inflated (and vice versa for the Colts). In betting terms, the Pats are like the Irish housing market circa 2007 right now.

Hulk Hands

eagle eye wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see what way the line moves early tomorrow, if it moves back to 7.5 I'm gonna get very heavy into it.

Just on that, it makes little difference to fire away with the -9's now. For instance, -9.5 even money is a better bet than -7.5 5/6. If there's two numbers that matter little in NFL spread betting, it's 8 and 9

Paully D

Cardinals -4 (19/20, Boylesports)
Bears +3.5 (1/1, Marathonbet)
Vikings -3.5 (1/1, Various)

Hulk Hands

Paully D wrote: »

Cardinals -4 (19/20, Boylesports)
Bears +3.5 (1/1, Marathonbet)
Vikings -3.5 (1/1, Various)

Are they taking bets off Irish customers again incidentally? Some of their lines/odds are frankly ridiculous, but heard they were no longer taking Irish customers. Same with TitanBet

Paully D

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Are they taking bets off Irish customers again incidentally? Some of their lines/odds are frankly ridiculous, but heard they were no longer taking Irish customers. Same with TitanBet

Unfortunately not mate. I just have access to one via a family member based in the UK. I'll have to get him to set up a Titanbet one too as some of their lines and prices this week are crazy, I would have got it sorted for this week but he hasn't had time.

JaMarcusHustle

Any particular reason they don't take Irish customers, or is it just UK only sorta thing?

Hulk Hands

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Any particular reason they don't take Irish customers, or is it just UK only sorta thing?

New point of consumption tax rules that our government have brought in. I think they all have to reregister and most of the smaller ones have decided Irelands not worth the effort with extra tax. Makes sense, people like Paully there only use them for best price. Still a pain in the hole, hard enough getting bets on these days without being narrowed down to 7/8 bookies

skippymac6

Just two on the early games for me. Chiefs +3.5 and Skins +7.5. I think the Chiefs have that one week were they come together after the loss of Charles and I have a feeling the skins will keep it close.

Guffy

A bit late i know but havant backed anything in few weeks


Texans +2
Cards -3.5
Ravens -2

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Cardinals -4 (19/20, Boylesports)
Bears +3.5 (1/1, Marathonbet)
Vikings -3.5 (1/1, Various)

2-1. I'll take that. I think I'd have smashed my laptop if the Bears one hadn't come in given that they were rode by the officials all night.

11-5 overall on the season.

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Just two on the early games for me. Chiefs +3.5 and Skins +7.5. I think the Chiefs have that one week were they come together after the loss of Charles and I have a feeling the skins will keep it close.

Brutal. Chiefs could have covered but gave a late fg away but they really look bare without Charles. Cousins killed the Skins after being in contention for most of the match

PokeHerKing

Early bets, SF +6.5, Atlanta -3.5, will take the jets if it goes to +10.

No line on the Steelers game yet, any idea why?

D9Male

Unclear who is playing QB, maybe?

StringerBell

Ben might be back

ronanc1000

Cardinals handicap now out to -10, I think they will win, but I can't see them covering the handicap.

eagle eye

Well I wouldn't back that either but I do feel that the Cardinals will score pretty big tonight.

I'm having a couple of small bets on td scorers. Michael Floyd got his first one of the season last week and the Ravens have been giving up tds to pacy receivers at an alarming rate. I'm on Floyd to score a td @ 7/5 and to score two of them @ 16/1.

I also think that David Johnson could have a good night tonight and I'm on him for the same bets as Floyd @ 5/4 and 12/1.

Best of luck all.

PS: I'm waiting to here if John Brown is active or not to make my decision on the over. I'm gonna take an alternative of over 56 @ 2/1 if he is active.

ronanc1000

eagle eye wrote: »

Well I wouldn't back that either but I do feel that the Cardinals will score pretty big tonight.

I'm having a couple of small bets on td scorers. Michael Floyd got his first one of the season last week and the Ravens have been giving up tds to pacy receivers at an alarming rate. I'm on Floyd to score a td @ 7/5 and to score two of them @ 16/1.

I also think that David Johnson could have a good night tonight and I'm on him for the same bets as Floyd @ 5/4 and 12/1.

Best of luck all.

PS: I'm waiting to here if John Brown is active or not to make my decision on the over. I'm gonna take an alternative of over 56 @ 2/1 if he is active.

Brown is active according to the Cardinals Twitter page a few minutes ago. Do you see it easily hitting Over 50 or Ravens +10 as a better bet? Ravens are the only team in the league not to have won or lost by more than 8 points this season.

StringerBell

ronanc1000 wrote: »

Cardinals handicap now out to -10, I think they will win, but I can't see them covering the handicap.

I got on at 8 the other day, even that was a little big for my liking but I'm happy to gamble it. 10 seems very big, has there been some news come out of the Ravens camp?

Edit: I should point out that all stats and indicators point to a blow out in Glendale for the Cardinals, but football often surprises

StringerBell

eagle eye wrote: »

Well I wouldn't back that either but I do feel that the Cardinals will score pretty big tonight.

I'm having a couple of small bets on td scorers. Michael Floyd got his first one of the season last week and the Ravens have been giving up tds to pacy receivers at an alarming rate. I'm on Floyd to score a td @ 7/5 and to score two of them @ 16/1.

I also think that David Johnson could have a good night tonight and I'm on him for the same bets as Floyd @ 5/4 and 12/1.

Best of luck all.

PS: I'm waiting to here if John Brown is active or not to make my decision on the over. I'm gonna take an alternative of over 56 @ 2/1 if he is active.

Why do you think the Ravens will score heavily enough? The Cardinals D is pretty good, going for an alternative over strikes me as having plenty of confidence in both teams to score heavily.

ronanc1000

I'm going with Cardinals -6.5 @ 8/13.

StringerBell

ronanc1000 wrote: »

I'm going with Cardinals -6.5 @ 8/13.

They should cover that quite easily, think you could even give yourself a little more room to work with They have won 4 games by 12+ points right?

ronanc1000

StringerBell wrote: »

They should cover that quite easily, think you could even give yourself a little more room to work with They have won 4 games by 12+ points right?

I've only been watching NFL this season and betting on it this season, what points do you think? I have only went -6.5 as I think a they can win easily by 1 TD. The handicap now is -10 but a double digit handicap is tough to cover.

StringerBell

I baulk at it a little myself, as I said I am on them at -8 from early in the week, The Ravens don't often get blown out but if the Cardinals do fire tonight they could really blow them away. By all means just do whatever your comfortable with, sorry if I come across as telling you what way to bet, its your money.

If I was doing the point spread now I would probably still try get it around 8, I don't see the Ravens holding it to 1 score so 8 was ok with me when I put the bet on, dont like 10+ point spreads, very rarely do em but if push came to shove I would rather take the Cards to beat the spread then the Ravens to keep it anyway close tbh

I just don't see where they score enough points, Smith is banged up too. If the run game doesn't click I just don't see them causing too many problems where as Palmer and the Cards have been excellent aerially this season, racking up points and Chris Johnson has more then done his share also.

As I said, all indicators point to a blow out, its just hard to pull the trigger on those kind of spreads I guess

StringerBell

Oh another one I like is Palmer to throw for over 286.5 passing yards

And one for you Eagle if you think Johnson (David) will have a big game, his total yards line is 34.5, if he does have a good night he will surely go past that

StringerBell

One more thing to keep in mind, this will be the Ravens 4th cross country trip in 7 games!

ronanc1000

StringerBell wrote: »

I baulk at it a little myself, as I said I am on them at -8 from early in the week, The Ravens don't often get blown out but if the Cardinals do fire tonight they could really blow them away. By all means just do whatever your comfortable with, sorry if I come across as telling you what way to bet, its your money.

If I was doing the point spread now I would probably still try get it around 8, I don't see the Ravens holding it to 1 score so 8 was ok with me when I put the bet on, dont like 10+ point spreads, very rarely do em but if push came to shove I would rather take the Cards to beat the spread then the Ravens to keep it anyway close tbh

I just don't see where they score enough points, Smith is banged up too. If the run game doesn't click I just don't see them causing too many problems where as Palmer and the Cards have been excellent aerially this season, racking up points and Chris Johnson has more then done his share also.

As I said, all indicators point to a blow out, its just hard to pull the trigger on those kind of spreads I guess

Trigger pulled. Cardinals -8. Let's do this! ðŸ‘

eagle eye

StringerBell wrote: »

Why do you think the Ravens will score heavily enough? The Cardinals D is pretty good, going for an alternative over strikes me as having plenty of confidence in both teams to score heavily.

I think both D's have a weakness against speedsters on deep throws and both QB's can throw a very good deep ball. Just see a high scoring game with Brown being the ex-factor as he has buckets of pace and his presence will leave a lot of room for his teammates.
Floyd, Brown and the two Johnson's can fairly shift for the Cards, while on the other side.

StringerBell wrote: »

Oh another one I like is Palmer to throw for over 286.5 passing yards

And one for you Eagle if you think Johnson (David) will have a big game, his total yards line is 34.5, if he does have a good night he will surely go past that

Is that total yards or total rush yards?

StringerBell

Good luck! hope it comes in for you (obviously!)

StringerBell

eagle eye wrote: »

I think both D's have a weakness against speedsters on deep throws and both QB's can throw a very good deep ball. Just see a high scoring game with Brown being the ex-factor as he has buckets of pace and his presence will leave a lot of room for his teammates.
Floyd, Brown and the two Johnson's can fairly shift for the Cards, while on the other side.

Is that total yards or total rush yards?

Total yards, rush and receiving, I have taken it think its a decent spot

StringerBell

If your still watching ronanc I'd look to cash out soon if you can, I will be as I think this is probably going to be close in the finish and going to the wire and I gotta go to bed so won't be able to see it through!

This drive will tell a lot

ronanc1000

StringerBell wrote: »

If your still watching ronanc I'd look to cash out soon if you can, I will be as I think this is probably going to be close in the finish and going to the wire and I gotta go to bed so won't be able to see it through!

This drive will tell a lot

Should I cash out now? I think its in the bag now, think I should let it run? Lol

StringerBell

Im cashing out, just an experience thing with me. I have burned too many times

StringerBell

Could do with a Td for Johnson to cap a very good night. Hopefully see it when I wake up in the morning, night all (anyone left of course)