NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

ronanc1000

StringerBell wrote: »

Im cashing out, just an experience thing with me. I have burned too many times

26-10, on - 8. If the ravens score then the Cardinals still lead by 9 correct?

Hulk Hands

The Vikings at pickem this week against the Bears is insanity. I thought 11/10 at game time against the Lions was one of the bets of the year, and this week looks the same story. The 'maths' guys in Vegas hate them due to poor stats. It's lazy analysis as the stats are poor due to 3 or 4 games they had wrapped up from a long way out, leading to conservative playcalling to kill clock. Vikings record at Soilder field is a worry. Still, they're more than 3 pts better than the Bears at this moment, even with the latter off a bye. Have covered the spread in 5 straight yet still not getting credit

eagle eye

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Vikings at pickem this week against the Bears is insanity. I thought 11/10 at game time against the Lions was one of the bets of the year, and this week looks the same story. The 'maths' guys in Vegas hate them due to poor stats. It's lazy analysis as the stats are poor due to 3 or 4 games they had wrapped up from a long way out, leading to conservative playcalling to kill clock. Vikings record at Soilder field is a worry. Still, they're more than 3 pts better than the Bears at this moment, even with the latter off a bye. Have covered the spread in 5 straight yet still not getting credit

Bears are coming off a bye week and have won two of three games since Cutler came back from his injury.

Bye week and home advantage is the reason for the line and I think it's fair enough.

SameOleJay

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Vikings at pickem this week against the Bears is insanity. I thought 11/10 at game time against the Lions was one of the bets of the year, and this week looks the same story. The 'maths' guys in Vegas hate them due to poor stats. It's lazy analysis as the stats are poor due to 3 or 4 games they had wrapped up from a long way out, leading to conservative playcalling to kill clock. Vikings record at Soilder field is a worry. Still, they're more than 3 pts better than the Bears at this moment, even with the latter off a bye. Have covered the spread in 5 straight yet still not getting credit

I'm not seeing it as a pickem anywhere?

Hulk Hands

eagle eye wrote: »

Bears are coming off a bye week and have won two of three games since Cutler came back from his injury.

Bye week and home advantage is the reason for the line and I think it's fair enough.

I'd have the as 7 pts favs on neutral. Give 3 for home field and possibly up to a full point for John Fox off a bye (being generous), so id have it a solid 3. Personal opinion of course. The syndicates have driven this one, wrongly in my view

SameOleJay wrote: »

I'm not seeing it as a pickem anywhere?

5 dimes and most importantly, the asian exchanges are. Pinnacle are favouring the Vikings by a tiny amount, still pickem in the general sense. You looking at one of those 2 bit places offering the Bears at odds against?

StringerBell

ronanc1000 wrote: »

26-10, on - 8. If the ravens score then the Cardinals still lead by 9 correct?

Sorry bud I was gone by the time you posted, the danger was the 2 point conversion, and possibly worse as almost played out. Hoping you got the money out anyway. Woke up very happy to have cut and run!

SameOleJay

I see the Bears getting 1 point per this unless I'm reading it wrong.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/minnesota-vikings-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Anyway I'll believe the Vikings at Soldier Field when I see it. Last year was the nadir for Chicago football and the Vikings still got rolled without landing a punch. Maybe they've improved dramatically since then, we'll see. Minnesota are the better team but 7 points is pushing it for sure.

skippymac6

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Vikings at pickem this week against the Bears is insanity. I thought 11/10 at game time against the Lions was one of the bets of the year, and this week looks the same story. The 'maths' guys in Vegas hate them due to poor stats. It's lazy analysis as the stats are poor due to 3 or 4 games they had wrapped up from a long way out, leading to conservative playcalling to kill clock. Vikings record at Soilder field is a worry. Still, they're more than 3 pts better than the Bears at this moment, even with the latter off a bye. Have covered the spread in 5 straight yet still not getting credit

I've struggled to nail down the Vikings all season. They seem to me to be a team that are able to hang with the better teams due to their very talented front 7 restricting the opposition but they do let the inferior teams keep it close. They have beaten only teams with a losing record (I suppose that's the same this week) and they have only scored 22 points more than they have conceded. Sure at the weekend they were 11 points down to the Lions at one stage. Peterson is blowing hot and cold this year and I'm not fully convinced about Bridgewater yet. I'd have them 5 points better than the bears and as folks have said before, the -1 seems just about right considering the bye and the match being in Chicago. It's not one I'd be having a strong bet in to be honest

KrustyUCC

Hate betting against my team but reckon Saints -3.5 is a great bet this week

We are horrible in NO and the lack of a pass rush will be exposed by Brees

Paully D

Taking 2 early lines for week 8 for now:

Cardinals (-4.5) @ Browns (15/16, Unibet)
Lions (+6) @/vs Chiefs (4/5, Betfair)

ronanc1000

StringerBell wrote: »

Sorry bud I was gone by the time you posted, the danger was the 2 point conversion, and possibly worse as almost played out. Hoping you got the money out anyway. Woke up very happy to have cut and run!

No unfortunately my stream broke down and they had already scored but managed to cash out and only lose 2 euro so lesson learned. The lesson is to take the .5 or "hook" to avoid a push. Think I'll take the pats -6.5 tonight.

eagle eye

I'm liking an alternative over of 56 @ 6/4 tonight.

I also like Blount for multiple td's, he hardly touched the rock last week do I'd expect him to see a lot of it tonight.

StringerBell

ronanc1000 wrote: »

No unfortunately my stream broke down and they had already scored but managed to cash out and only lose 2 euro so lesson learned. The lesson is to take the .5 or "hook" to avoid a push. Think I'll take the pats -6.5 tonight.

Why did you lose 2 euro? Why didn't it push?

padraig_f

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Vikings at pickem this week against the Bears is insanity. I thought 11/10 at game time against the Lions was one of the bets of the year, and this week looks the same story. The 'maths' guys in Vegas hate them due to poor stats. It's lazy analysis as the stats are poor due to 3 or 4 games they had wrapped up from a long way out, leading to conservative playcalling to kill clock. Vikings record at Soilder field is a worry. Still, they're more than 3 pts better than the Bears at this moment, even with the latter off a bye. Have covered the spread in 5 straight yet still not getting credit

I liked the Bears situation for a number of reason. They're effectively on a 3-game winning streak, they beat the Lions, they just got screwed by the refs.

They were banged up at a number of positions, and the bye gives them a chance to heal up. Jeffery in particular seemed to make a difference in his first game back the last day. Plus you like good coaches off a bye, and the Bears have two excellent co-ordinators in Fangio and Gase.

I think you'll get a bit of an edge from the players, because they know they should've beaten the Lions and they didn't, so I think they'll want to make amends for that.

I don't have a great read on the Vikings, but I do like the Bears' situation for the reasons stated.

StringerBell

Am I missing something in the Falcons/Buc's game? Atlanta favoured by just 7, I would have thought the line would have been bigger. I haven't looked in to it yet, simply saw the lines. Injuries or anything happening?

eagle eye

StringerBell wrote: »

Am I missing something in the Falcons/Buc's game? Atlanta favoured by just 7, I would have thought the line would have been bigger. I haven't looked in to it yet, simply saw the lines. Injuries or anything happening?

Well Atlanta's last three games haven't been that impressive, they beat Tennessee by just three points in their last game, they lost by 10 to the Saints in New Orleans and got an overtime win over the Redskins in the game before that. Then you have to consider that it's a divisional rivalry.

Apart from Moore and Hankerson who are out the Falcons are in good shape.

That is basically giving you the bad news as regards the Falcons.

Now if you look at the Bucs they have a lot of injures including Vincent Jackson, Clinton McDonald and Major Wright who are all doubtful for this game.

The Bucs are a run first team and they are facing one of the best run defenses in the league. So basically just like you I'm very surprised at the line for this one.

Hulk Hands

Bucs are well liked by the syndicates at the moment, there was a tonne of money for them last week vs the redskins, a game where they won on all but the scoreboard. Atlanta's record and their ypp stats dont match up, so the markets have cooled on them. I'd still take Atlanta tho if pushed

StringerBell

I'm not sold on Atlanta in general, for this game though I would have had the line in and around 8.5-10 given the home field advantage factor also.


I have gone for and against Atlanta this season, I went against them v the Saints, they just don't do well in the Superdome and I went with Tennessee on the spread too as I thought they would keep it close (not that low scoring mind, just close!) but I can't help but see this as a good spot.

Was sure I was missing something

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Taking 2 early lines for week 8 for now:

Cardinals (-4.5) @ Browns (15/16, Unibet)
Lions (+6) @/vs Chiefs (4/5, Betfair)

The Lions

10-5 overall for the season.

Early lines for this week:

Packers (-2.5) @ Panthers (10/11, Various)
Saints (-7) vs Titans (5/6, Boyles)

sportstar583

Two lines I like this week.

Browns (+11) @ Bengals
Panthers (+2.5) vs packers

skippymac6

sportstar583 wrote: »

Two lines I like this week.

Browns (+11) @ Bengals
Panthers (+2.5) vs packers

Manziel starting for the Browns could spell trouble for you. The Bengals absolutely pulverised him last year in an embarrassing shutout at home. Also he will be on a shorter week than usual in terms of first team reps with the match being on Thursday. I suppose the Bengals could take their eye off this one after their hard fought win on Sunday which (even this early) almost guarantees them the AFC North. I hope Johnny goes well, but if the Bengals get out to an early lead, it could get ugly. The Browns have such a poor rush defence that Bernard and Hill could go crazy. I'd be on under 266.5 yards passing for Dalton as I just don't think they'll need to ask him to do too much unless the Browns get a few turnovers and get a few early scores.

eagle eye

That line is out to 12.5 now for tonight's game. Gotta fancy the Bengals to dole out a thumping in this one with Johnny Football starting for the Browns.

Hulk Hands

Bengals by 31+ 10/1, and 25+ in the first half 18/1.

If this goes the Bengals way early it could be serious blowout territory. Not sure they'll let up if they get ahead either, since everyone keeps mentioning last year TNF mess vs the Browns (and conveniently ignoring the Bengals won the fixture after in Cleveland 30-0).

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Early lines for this week:

Packers (-2.5) @ Panthers (10/11, Various)
Saints (-7) vs Titans (5/6, Boyles)

Adding Broncos (-4) @ Colts (39/40, Marathon) and Giants (-1.5) @ Buccaneers (21/20, Titan) to the above. Saints and Packers moved the wrong way on me but that's the way it goes sometimes.

Good luck all.

eagle eye

I'm on the Patriots, Falcons, Broncos and Giants to cover.

I've two singles bets on the Packers with an alternative -7.5 and the Jags with an alternative +7.

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Packers (-2.5) @ Panthers (10/11, Various)
Saints (-7) vs Titans (5/6, Boyles)

Paully D wrote: »

Adding Broncos (-4) @ Colts (39/40, Marathon) and Giants (-1.5) @ Buccaneers (21/20, Titan) to the above. Saints and Packers moved the wrong way on me but that's the way it goes sometimes.

Good luck all.

1-4. Tough week. Probably my worst betting week on NFL in a couple of years.

11-9 overall for the season now.

skippymac6

Very hard to get excited by tonight's match up where both teams are struggling and also seem riddled with injuries. Eddie Royal and more importantly, Matt Forte are out for the Bears and Keenan Allen and Brown are out for the chargers. The chargers have the worst rush defence in the league but with rookie Langford starting for Forte he might not be able to take full advantage. If Weddle was out, I'd certainly be on the Bears as that chargers secondary is poor anyway. With two bad defences (Chicago in the bottom 5 overall worst defences too) I'm going to stick a small bet on over 50 points

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Very hard to get excited by tonight's match up where both teams are struggling and also seem riddled with injuries. Eddie Royal and more importantly, Matt Forte are out for the Bears and Keenan Allen and Brown are out for the chargers. The chargers have the worst rush defence in the league but with rookie Langford starting for Forte he might not be able to take full advantage. If Weddle was out, I'd certainly be on the Bears as that chargers secondary is poor anyway. With two bad defences (Chicago in the bottom 5 overall worst defences too) I'm going to stick a small bet on over 50 points

A scoreless third qtr put paid to that. When the Chargers get the lead they go back to their running game which is rubbish. They did the same when they blew a late lead in Baltimore. They really should just put it on Rivers' arm and keep up the pressure when they have the lead.

eagle eye

I fancy the Bills tonight and I'm backing them straight up at 11/10. I'm also going on McCoy to score two tds.

Guffy

Three for me tonight...

4 units bills moneyline 23/20
2 units williams 2 or more 8/1
1 unit ivory anytime bills 1-6 5/1

JONJO THE MISER

eagle eye wrote: »

I fancy the Bills tonight and I'm backing them straight up at 11/10. I'm also going on McCoy to score two tds.

how much? cause you always seem interested in what others have put on:rolleyes:

padraig_f

Looks like the sharps were on the Titans (at home to the Panthers), came down from +5.5 to +3.5. That wasn't public money.

padraig_f

Looks like their on the Chiefs (@ Broncos) and Raiders (vs. Vikings) also.

Chiefs moved from +4.5 to +3.5, could be bad news for me because I'm on the Broncos.

I'm on the Raiders at home as well.

Paully D

Panthers -3.5 (23/20, Titan)
Broncos -3.5 (21/20, Titan)
Patriots -7 (15/13, BetBright)

helimachoptor

Want fir the overs on the titans game

skippymac6

Eagles vs dolphins over 49.5
Saints vs skins over 52
Titans +4
Skins on the moneyline

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Eagles vs dolphins over 49.5
Saints vs skins over 52
Titans +4
Skins on the moneyline

I've put a lot of stock into the fact that DeShaun Jackson is back for the skins

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

Want fir the overs on the titans game

McCluster and his fumbling, Game was over and titans were going for a garbage time TD which would have got me the money

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Eagles vs dolphins over 49.5
Saints vs skins over 52
Titans +4
Skins on the moneyline

2/4. How that Eagles game didn't have more points in it I'll never know. Sanchez at the end was awful

Paully D

Cardinals -4 (5/4, Titanbet)
Broncos -4 (6/5, Titanbet)
Bengals -8 (10/11, Various)

ben.schlomo

Any picks today Paully, crackers last week.

Paully D

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Any picks today Paully, crackers last week.

Thanks mate.

Just a bet on the Bengals (-1.5, 3/4 with Titanbet) for me today. It'll be a very tough game but I think they're a better team than the Steelers and have to take them giving up less than a field goal at home.

Paully D

Giants +5 vs Panthers (20/21, Ladbrokes)
Patriots -13.5 vs Titans (10/11, BetBright)
Packers -2.5 @ Raiders (3/4, BetBright)

Bateman

Seems to be a bit of steam on the Rams tonight, not sure I understand the move myself. Might be a play on the fact that last weekend was the Buccs' "Superbowl", they'd have gone to 7-6 if they'd beaten the Saints in the big divisional game. After such a losing effort, teams time and again come out flat in the next game. I just don't see what people are seeing in the Rams though

matthew8

Bateman wrote: »

Seems to be a bit of steam on the Rams tonight, not sure I understand the move myself. Might be a play on the fact that last weekend was the Buccs' "Superbowl", they'd have gone to 7-6 if they'd beaten the Saints in the big divisional game. After such a losing effort, teams time and again come out flat in the next game. I just don't see what people are seeing in the Rams though

I thought the Rams would be favoured by more. They only have 1 less win than the Buccaneers and have played a far, far more difficult schedule. The Buccaneers have only played 1 game all season against a team with a winning record, the Rams have played 7. Given 3 points for home field I thought they'd be favoured by more than 1.

sportstar583

Here are some good bets this week(in order from most confident to least confident):

Carolina -5 @ New York Giants
Seattle -14 vs Cleveland
baltime +7 vs Kansas City

Paully D

18-12 on posted spread picks throughout the season. Going for the following to round things off:

Patriots (-2.5) @ Jets (4/5, 32Red)
Panthers (-6.5) @ Falcons (19/20, BetBright)

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

18-12 on posted spread picks throughout the season. Going for the following to round things off:

Patriots (-2.5) @ Jets (4/5, 32Red)
Panthers (-6.5) @ Falcons (19/20, BetBright)

Adding Texans (-3.5) @ Titans (11/10, Paddy Power) to the above, along with Steelers (-10) @ Ravens (1/1, BetBright) and Chiefs (-10.5) vs Browns (1/1, various).

Paully D

Terrible week last week, record for this year is 19-16. In profit but it would be nice to finish with a bang.

Just one bet, I'm going with:

Steelers -10.5 @ Browns (took earlier in the week, it's out to -13 now I think)

Paully D

Steelers did the job yesterday. 20-16 on the season.

A couple of playoff picks for this coming weekend:

Steelers (ML) @ Bengals (4/5, SkyBet)
Packers (ML) @ Redskins (24/23, Marathon)