July 2015 Boards forecast contest

Tae laidir

You are very generous to 4th and 6th July?
I don't know how you have the patience to read those ME Lightening Maps!

M.T. Cranium

Yeah, I know ... I put them onto top magnification when they get crowded.

The dates get their various points from being close to actual peaks, the highest peak was on 5th so dates on each side get one less point, and so on, unless a third or fourth place event creates a higher point total. So it's basically a bunch of overlapping bell curves.

I am going to have a real skill question for the bonus in August with this intense system off the west coast just after the deadline for entries. Will be trying to spread the word among the regulars to hold off on their entries but also to get in on time, when I open the thread in a short time (after I post the forecast basically).

Schadenfreudia

Given the amount of work involved it won't be every month we can expect the lightening question!

dacogawa

I predict there will never be a lightning strike question again, do I get a bonus for that? :rolleyes:

Also an idea for the August bonus might be "where will have the longest cloudless sky for the peak of the Perseid meteor shower" or something along those lines, not sure how you'd police that though...

M.T. Cranium

I will be posting the August thread in a few minutes, and the bonus will be essentially a real forecast this time, not speculation as usual. It hasn't been all that much work with the lightning, only two days really required much hunting on high-magnification maps, the rest were pretty much adding up single digit totals or maybe slightly higher a couple of times. I would imagine that Limerick and Tipps as well as Kilkenny do better most summer months than they managed this month.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, futility increases ...

IMT at 14.2 after a week that was quite mild for November at 12.9 C.

PRC at 161% with the week at 135%

SUN at 83% after the week managed 87%.

Final numbers will be close to these, I would imagine.

Lightning report for 29th is a mere __ 2 reports
Same result on 30th ______________ 2 reports

M.T. Cranium

It's going to be the 4th or 5th until we see the Monthly Summary official data, but from the daily and monthly data sections I have these estimates to confirm later:

IMT was 14.0 C

PRC was 151% (the final three days fairly dry)

SUN at 85% as final three days averaged 90% (29th was quite sunny in the south and west, otherwise rather cloudy).

We already have the MAX and MIN in earlier reports. There was no lightning reported on the 31st, so that can be given some scoring now.

Based on all that is known, these are the provisional scores for July. Several categories needed some help from the minimum progression rule.


Provisional scoring for July 2015


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __Bonus ____ TOTALS

Tae laidir _____________18* _ 15* _ 14* _ 14* _ 08 ___ 2 + 3 _____ 74
dasa29 ______________ 22* _ 18* _ 16* _ 06* _ 02 ___ 2 + 4 _____ 70
John mac ____________ 22* _ 10* _ 14* _ 11* _ 07 ___ 1 + 4 _____ 69
Joe Public ____________ 23* _ 14* _ 12* _ 11* _ 07 ___ 1 + 1 _____ 69
dacogawa ____________19* _ 10* _ 10* _ 14* _ 06 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 62
MrSkinner ____________12* _ 15* _ 18* _ 04* _ 08 ___ 3 + 1 _____ 61
kindredspirit __________18* _ 10* _ 15* _ 09* _ 05 ___ 2 + 2 _____ 61
pauldry ______________18* _ 12* _ 05* _ 13* _ 06 ___ 1 + 3 _____ 58
rameire ______________18* _ 14* _ 05* _ 10* _ 07 ___ 1 + 1 _____ 56
lostinashford __ (-5) ___ 20* _ 14* _ 06* _ 08* _ 04 ___ 4 + 4 _ 60-5=55

Con Sensus __________ 12* _ 12* _ 12* _ 09* _ 06 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 55

sunflower3 ___________ 08* _ 16* _ 08* _ 10* _ 08 ___ 2 + 2 _____ 54
jd __________________ 07* _ 06* _ 15* _ 12* _ 07 ___ 3 + 3 _____ 53
Lumi ____ (-5) ________09* _ 14* _ 15* _ 09* _ 07 ___ 0 + 4 _ 58-5=53
rikand _______________14* _ 12* _ 12* _ 07* _ 03 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 51
Bsal _________________12* _ 14* _ 06* _ 07* _ 05 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 48
M.T. Cranium _________ 05* _ 03* _ 12* _ 12* _ 06 ___ 4 + 4 _____ 46
Harps ___ (-5) ________ 12* _ 10* _ 10* _ 09* _ 03 ___ 1 + 5 _ 50-5=45
Jpmarn ______________ 02* _ 05* _ 12* _ 13* _ 10 ___ 0 + 2 _____ 44
DOCARCH ____________03* _ 10* _ 16* _ 04* _ 05 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 42
omicron ______________05* _ 12* _ 02* _ 11* _ 07 ___ 2 + 3 _____ 42
Schadenfreudia ________14* _ 07* _ 01* _ 07* _ 05 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 38
200motels ____________07* _ 01* _ 10* _ 06* _ 08 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 35
waterways ___________ 02* _ 12* _ 12* _ 01* _ 00 ___ 3 + 2 _____ 32
mickger844posts ______ 02* _ 14* _ 02* _ 04* _ 03 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 28

______________________________________________

* scores adjusted for minimum progression rule.

I would imagine that these provisional scores will become final since most of them are based on minimum progression so any slight changes in the final numbers will probably have no effect -- the IMT, SUN and Bonus can be considered final at this point anyway.

As most of the higher annual scores ended up below the average this month, I would expect the annual race to look much tighter when updated, but I will wait until these numbers are confirmed before doing that.

Meanwhile, congrats to Tae laidir, dasa29, Johnmac and Joe Public (who must be pleased with a score ending in 9) for leading the table.

M.T. Cranium

Monthly Summary has appeared, more or less confirming my estimates for PRC and SUN (slight differences that would just leave all scores the same) and the (very low) MAX of 23.8, MIN of 3.1 used to generate the minimum progression scores. Will soon post an annual update based on the scores above.

The MS now shows all stations, not just the eleven that were always shown before, that we are using in our contests, for precip anomalies. I will stick with our eleven stations through end of 2015 contests and ask for opinions about using a larger grid next year. In this case it appears only slightly different anyway.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual 2015 scoring January to July


FORECASTER _________ Jan _Feb_ Mar _Apr_ May _Jun _ Jul __ 2015 Total (rank) __ best 6/7 (rank)

Jpmarn ________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _____ 463 (1) ______ 419 (1)
M.T. Cranium ___________ 68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _____ 420 (5) ______ 403 (2)

Con Sensus ____________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _____ 444 (2) ______ 389 (3)

Rikand ________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _____ 435 (3) _____ 387 (3)
Lumi __________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _____ 437 (2) _____ 384 (4)
Bsal __________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _____ 426 (4) _____ 378 (5)
MrSkinner ______________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _____ 377 (17) ____ 377 (6)
Tae laidir ______________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _____ 405 (11) _____ 372 (7)
Joe Public ______________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _____ 409 (9) _____ 370 (8t)
dacogawa ______________ 48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _____ 370 (19) ____ 370 (8t)
dasa29 ________________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _____ 412 (7) _____ 367 (10)
sunflower3 _____________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _____ 410 (8) _____ 366 (11t)
jd ____________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _____ 397 (14) ____ 366 (11t)
John mac ______________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _____ 415 (6) _____ 365 (13t)
DOCARCH ______________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _____ 401 (12) ____ 365 (13t)
lostinashford ___________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _____ 364 (21) ____ 364 (15)
Pauldry ________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _____ 406 (10) ____ 358 (16)
mickger844posts ________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _____ 384 (16) ____ 356 (17t)
Harps _________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _____ 390 (15) ____ 356 (17t)
kindredspirit ____________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _____ 399 (13) ____ 352 (19)
Schadenfreudia __________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _____ 373 (18) ____ 337 (20)
rameire ________________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _____ 369 (20) ____ 329 (21)
omicron ________________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _____ 352 (22) ____ 316 (22)
waterways ______________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _____ 311 (23) ____ 311 (23)
200motels ______________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _____ 287 (24) ____ 287 (24)
delw __________________ 48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _____ 109 (25)
blue5000 _______________45 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ______ 45
BLIZZARD7 _____________--- _ 31 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ______ 31
__________________________________________________________

The table is ordered so that the best 6 out of 7 determine the order rather than total score. You can see your ranking in total score as well.

The ranks of Con Sensus do not alter your rank which explains why there are ties with Con Sensus that are not actually ties. But there are some ties between contestants shown with the letter t after the number.

The table generally tightened up considerably this month, many of those who beat Con Sensus in July were in the bottom half of the table previously and some have moved up as many as ten spots. Our table leaders generally fell back a bit and so there is a good race developing towards the second half of the contest.