Tour de France betting **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

Taxuser1

Inquitus wrote: »

I like Cav at 5/1 better than John or Alex, but I do think it's Sagan's to lose.

it doesn't matter if Sagan wins, there was money to be made on Degenkolb at 33s for an each way bet

point was that there was no value in Cav. He's gonna be hard pressed to win and if he comes second it's a quarter odds at 5/1

this is the smart betting thread !

Taxuser1

and Froome is no value at 2/1 on overall form but on this year's Dauphine win alone, I think it's a massive piece of information and a massive price. I put Froome at 8/11 after Stage 4 if he's still upright

MPFG

Best bets for me (haven't a clue of the odds)

Best team Lotto Jumbo
Sam Bennett e/w stages 2,5,7
Sep Van Marke to win Stage 4
Michael Matthews to win stage 6
Dan Martin to win stage 8
Top 10 : Uran, Rolland & Kelderman
Thomas to wear yellow
SKY to win TTT
Top 5 Pinot & Purito

Taxuser1

i backed Lotto Jumbo for the Team Prize too - 7/1

pelevin

I was wondering myself about Uran for top 10 at 11/2 or so. Logic can only bring u so far though with that one, it's largely a shot in the dark though at maybe attractive enough odds to be worth a shot. Could be knackered after a very unimpressive Giro but one where he did finally come into form towards the very end. Seeing where he'll probably move on from Etixx, for a second I thought "Oh he'll be out to impress prospective teams so," but a moment's pondering says that's rubbish as I'm sure he had loads of heart & effort in the Giro too, it's just all about what's in the legs.

retalivity

Tony martin to finish top 3 in stage 1 @1.33 on bet365, that's buying money.

Arrow in the Knee

I was thinking Pierre Rolland but the odds aren't great for a top 10 finish.

spock.

Pinot w/o big 4 @ 10/3 looks good to me.
It's between him and Tejay @ 6/1 imo.

Taxuser1

retalivity wrote: »

Tony martin to finish top 3 in stage 1 @1.33 on bet365, that's buying money.

i have Tony 5th in my list of favourites for the distance behind

Dumoulin, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Malori

MPFG

Taxuser1 wrote: »

i have Tony 5th in my list of favourites for the distance behind

Dumoulin, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Malori

You would think it would be Dumoulin (the local boy) but at team presentation Tony Martin seemed very confident and the distance really suits him

johnk123

I wonder how closely are the sports traders in paddy power following this thread??

retalivity

MPFG wrote: »

You would think it would be Dumoulin (the local boy) but at team presentation Tony Martin seemed very confident and the distance really suits him

Agreed, id have Dumoulin as the only one who'd get close tbh,

Pudsy33

Is the course short enough for someone like Sagan to have a say?

Darkglasses

Bennett's odds are swinging like mad, I can now cash out for a 33% profit (which I will do and re-bet, like Beasty said)

MPFG

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Is the course short enough for someone like Sagan to have a say?

Can't see him beating Martin, Dumoulin, Cancelera and other TT specialists
However he could be in top 10

Taxuser1

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Is the course short enough for someone like Sagan to have a say?

maybe not Top 3 but he was matched against Clement with BET365 at 8/13 which was buying money

added that to a cheeky accumulator 5 timer paid 12/1 yesterday

Froome to beat TJ
Boom to beat Durbridge
Sagan to beat Clement
Castroviejo to beat Dowsett
Kelderman to beat Jungels

Darkglasses

Just added a podium forecast of Froome, Nibali, Contador at 66/1 for the crack. Lots more markets just got added on PP.

MPFG

Looks like Sam Bennett is under cooked according to his interview wiht Sticky Bottle

Maybe a later sprint stage then

Brian?

Taxuser1 wrote: »

i have Tony 5th in my list of favourites for the distance behind

Dumoulin, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Malori

I'm afraid that's crazy talk. Of these 4 Dumoulin is the only one who has a hope of beating Martin. Martin is actually good value at evens, given his record.

I'd have Kwiatkowski about 8th favourite.

Taxuser1

Brian? wrote: »

I'm afraid that's crazy talk. Of these 4 Dumoulin is the only one who has a hope of beating Martin. Martin is actually good value at evens, given his record.

I'd have Kwiatkowski about 8th favourite.

Kwiatkowski's record in pan falt opening TTs when not at end of race. Sublime. His price of 33/1 was crazy. Maybe he'll find one or two too good but he's expert in targetting form. His Dauphine was off a training block and he held well back.

Lucky to find 2 Tony Martin wins over past 3 years in a opening day prologue under 15km.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Paris_nice_2015_Stage_1

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Volta_ao_Algarve_2014_Stage_3_Sagres

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tour_de_Romandie_2014_Prologue_Ascona

cunavalos

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Anyone think 18/1 Garmindale for the team classification is huge? Martin, Ryder, and Talansky all capable of being in the top 15. I don't think Sky will have anyone near the top bar Froome.

The team classification is not based on the cumulative time of the three best riders on GC at the end of the tour but on each stage and i cannot see Garmindale consistently having 3 riders high up the field on each stage.
In that regard i would think Movistar and Astana are best placed to have different riders finish consistently high up the field on a daily basis (Current odds clearly reflect that). Ag2R might be an outside bet but their odds are a little skinny at 7's

It may well happen that Garmin will finish up with 3 riders close to the top 20 but i suspect the policy to have 3 co-leaders will cause problems and if a match bet was available i would expect BMC to beat them on a head to head and even if an each way bet is available i wouldnt see them as a top 3 team.

diomed

€10 at 1000 on Pierre Rolland. No chance, just for the interest.

Bugsy2000

Pinot 25/1 ew for yellow.
Degenkolb 12/1 for green (late to the party on this one).
Malori 16/1 for Stage 1.
Valverde 100/1 ew for green (just for a random long shot)

Will probably go for Movistar top team at 4/1 too.

pelevin

diomed wrote: »

€10 at 1000 on Pierre Rolland. No chance, just for the interest.

Don't really understand that kind of bet, presumably it's Rolland to win the GC. If the odds were 10 million to one it'd still just be throwing money away. As you say, he's no chance. What's the interest?!

Bugsy2000

Nearly forgot,

Rui Costa 66/1 ew for Polka dots

Arrow in the Knee

Anybody got any tips for stage 2 tomorrow out of interest?

Pudsy33

Is Arnaud Demare too big at 18s?

spock.

spock. wrote:

Pinot w/o big 4 @ 10/3 looks good to me.

Glad I got on this early. Down to 5/4 - 7/4 now. It's my biggest bet for the tour.

MPFG

Arrow in the Knee wrote: »

Anybody got any tips for stage 2 tomorrow out of interest?

If the winds don't play a part with echelons I like Greipel


If echelons then Sagan

diomed

pelevin wrote: »

Don't really understand that kind of bet, presumably it's Rolland to win the GC. If the odds were 10 million to one it'd still just be throwing money away. As you say, he's no chance. What's the interest?!

Things happen. I could appear to be knowledgeable and say Chris Froome. Big odds equal big payouts.
If you give me 10 million to one I'll have a tenner on that (money up front please).

pelevin

diomed wrote: »

Things happen. I could appear to be knowledgeable and say Chris Froome. Big odds equal big payouts.
If you give me 10 million to one I'll have a tenner on that (money up front please).

The money up front is you give me a tenner.

Well you never know, maybe somehow you'll get lucky with Rolland - a breakaway somehow gaining 20 minutes on a stage . . . the odd freak event does happen.

diomed

pelevin wrote: »

The money up front is you give me a tenner.

Well you never know, maybe somehow you'll get lucky with Rolland - a breakaway somehow gaining 20 minutes on a stage . . . the odd freak event does happen.

It did in 2006 when I bet €75 on Oscar Pereiro-Sio at 180s. Valverde broke his collar bone, Pereiro-Sio became team leader, he lost 20 minutes one day, but Jens Voight and Pereiro-Sio took 29m57s from the peleton on another day, I sold a bit of the possible win for €1,800 and Floyd Landis doping on the third last day ruined the other €11k possible win.

Taxuser1

Taxuser1 wrote: »

maybe not Top 3 but he was matched against Clement with BET365 at 8/13 which was buying money

added that to a cheeky accumulator 5 timer paid 12/1 yesterday

Froome to beat TJ
Boom to beat Durbridge
Sagan to beat Clement
Castroviejo to beat Dowsett
Kelderman to beat Jungels

froome ya bollix !!!!!!!!!!!

i was well wrong with Kwiatkowski. not sure how that's happened but on the assumption that he's fine, could it be a weight loss/loss of power thing? he did mention that was the plan in January. Could he be the surprise package... he was very bullish about taking Yellow this week.

Matchbets against Kristoff tomorrow - i see Sagan and Greiepel taking him in a long drawn out team train sprint.

Arrow in the Knee

Here's an arb if anyone's interested for today's stage.

spock.

Marathonbet have Froome at 5/6 NOT to win yellow. Not touching it myself but there's potential for an arb (13/8 to win on sky)or just a single bet as that's good value.

Pudsy33

Going Dan Martin 6/1 and Domoulin in yellow at 21/10 for tomorrow

pelevin

Well I'm certainly going to have to put something on Dan for tomorrow. If you're gonna bet, it might as well be both emotional & logical.

Pudsy33

Took Albasini 20/1 each way too

Pudsy33

Well that didnt go to plan. Tomorrow should be interesting.

MPFG

I fancy Sep Vanmarcke tomorrow.

GetWithIt

The current yellow jersey is 11/1 to still be in yellow after tomorrow's stage. I'm not saying he'll be contesting a sprint finish but those odds look wrong to me.

MPFG

Brailsford said the don't want to keep the jersey but if SKY go all out and ride at front to keep Froome up there then there is a a high possibility they will

spock.

I think Stybar has a good chance tomorrow.
Pity the bookies think the same, 10/1 best price.

Pudsy33

I've gone on two long shots, Senechal and Debusschere. Both 100/1. Both have previous on the pave.

retalivity

Stage Matchups
Contador to beat quintana
Thomas to beat valverde
Greipel to beat cav
3.4 treble

Taxuser1

GVA all the way today at 18/1 with Paddys last evening.

I'm on Degs for Green so it's not a bad result if he wins but I cannot see a position where he's brought to the finish. He will need to be super strong in dry conditions with the likes of GVA, Vanmarcke and Stybar all chomping at the bit

Also on Gallopin to beat Pozzato in a match bet at 11/10. Pippo crashed heavy yesterday, and is on Rui Costa duty. Gallopin was Top 20 on this stage last year and is flying Seems a mismatch.

there's also a 2/1 offer in Paddys for the winning margin being 2 seconds or more. It's an uphill sprint so even if there's a smallish group arrivng together, there might be time gaps...or a lone GVA romping home

Taxuser1

bacekd Elmiger at 150/1 and Gallopin at 50s also both ew with Boylespprts for 5 places.

manafana

Taxuser1 wrote: »

bacekd Elmiger at 150/1 and Gallopin at 50s also both ew with Boylespprts for 5 places.

good call on both thats what I went for on my tips.

interesting how this plays out with tactics etc key based on who has to protect and who has free role.

Taxuser1

i'm still reeling after my monster matchbet on Frank v Barguill yesterday at 6/4. Frank crashed heavily, landing on his back. Missed the first echelon split and then got shelled out on the penultimate climb.

Frank was a shoo in for that bet. He loves Fleche Wallone and is a lightweight explosive climber. Barguill finished where I expected him, or or around the top 20 but behind GVA and Gesink...

kicking myself not backing the Vuillermoz v Uran matchbet - even money in some places yesterday. also Gesink v Bardet was Evens,

a day to forget

daramike

I think the cobbles are being over-estimated. They are not as hard as last year, we won't have anywhere near the bad weather and they are further from the finish. I expect a reduced sprint of 50 riders myself. I think Degenkolb, Kristoff, Sagan and Greipel are the big stand out favourites. T Martin is interesting at a big price 66/1. He finished top 20 last year in the cobbles and has 13K after the last section to go for the win and yellow jersey. Trentin is my other outside pick at 66/1. Finished 9th in last years stage would have been higher only for a Kwiatkowski puncture. He is very strong in these longer stages and won a reduced sprint stage last year in the Tour. Of the favourites Sagan at 7/1 for the win. He finished 4th in the similar stage last year. He nearly caught Griepel on the line in stage 2 so is very strong.