MMA Statistics

MMATycoon

Hi all!

I'm hoping I've posted enough in the past to post a link edit... OK I can't so I'll have to try just posting a bit of it and you guys can figure it out. If admin could make it a link or someone else could post it, that would be awesome.

I've been working on a seriously in depth new resource for MMA stats, which I think everyone here will find interesting, especially if they bet on MMA. It's all free, so just trying to get eyeballs on the site

betmma.tips/mma_statistics.php

You'll see all the stuff we have in place already (masses) but I will be developing the stats section massively over time.

- Just a few interesting highlights:
- Just blindly betting on all MMA underdogs currently nets 14% ROI (since November).
- There is a significant dead zone in betting odds, where slight favourites massively underperform their odds and slight underdogs massively over-perform.
- 135lb women's fights have less decisions than you'd think. (35%, which is much less than the 42% overall figure).
- Opening up the main fight card significantly increases the chance of decisions. (100% of women's fights that open the main card finish as a decision).
- Heavyweight has a 70% chance of a knockout.
- Bantamweight has a 49% chance of a decision.
- 58% of fighters lose their debut...

Anyway, it goes on - you can filter by whatever you like and I'll be adding many more filters in the future. I've also started logging late replacement days and probably a load of other stuff I can't remember right now.

So please take a look around the site. There are many other aspects to it but I don't wanna go sales pitchy for fear of getting this deleted... I just know the stats are the most useful for most people. Suffice to say though, it would be great to have any of you join in with the rest of the site too

Thanks for your time and shoot me any questions if you have any!
Mike

Tigger

http://betmma.tips/mma_statistics.php

cool

MMATycoon

Cheers for editing it to a link Trigger

If there's anything else you guys want / can think of in terms of stats you'd like adding, let me know. Only thing I can think of that I haven't really added yet is time between fights.

One thing I've found interesting. When it's only one guy coming off a loss, you get a lot more finishes. I think the logic behind that's probably that you get a lot more mismatches, as they try and build guys back up after a loss and match them with someone who's ultimately outmatched but the UFC gives them a shot to see if they can make a step up in class.

Mellor

I'd like a state for guys who are on a run of two consecutive losses (excluding title fights if possible), I've a theory that low to mid ranked guys are fighting for thier contract after two losses and put in that bit extra to make them +EV often

MMATycoon

Yeah that won't be a problem once we've logged more fights. We've had a couple of people have 3 fights logged but that's it so far, so I reckon it'd be 9 months or so more before we'd get enough data to make that useful.

MMATycoon

Fighter stances in MMA - is it better to be southpaw / switch stances?
Fighter performance by age in the UFC
UFC debutants by weight class and average position on the card by weight class - i know this last one seems a bit random but it was just cos I was arguing with someone on twitter and made the page to prove the point that UFC were trying to bring in a load of female fighters

I've also made a few betting tools;
Odds Conversion Tool
Parlay / Accumulator Odds Calculator
Handicapper Subscription Service Analyser - basically tells you how much you need to bet to cover the cost of paying for someone's betting advice, if they have a paid service.

I'm gunna keep adding loads more stats pages over time and I'm also updating stuff like fighter stances on the fighter profiles, which I don't think is stored anywhere else (not that I know of anyway).

I'm gunna eventually try and work on a script that analyses betting odds and sees if any of them look out of whack, based on stance, age, run of form, fighter styles (based on sub / KO / dec records). I'm enjoying making them and finding the results interesting, which is the main reason I'm pumping them out

Mellor

MMATycoon wrote: »

Fighter stances in MMA - is it better to be southpaw / switch stances?
Fighter performance by age in the UFC

Good work, but I’ve spoted a few issues.
Your wins are losses don’t tally up, this is an issue if you are using the data to determine bets.
For example fight stance, all options (ortho, southpaw, switch) have win %’s above 50%. That isn’t possible. But its appearing because the win colume totals 100fight, and the loss totals 70.

Same thing appears with age performance.

UFC debutants by weight class and average position on the card by weight class - i know this last one seems a bit random but it was just cos I was arguing with someone on twitter and made the page to prove the point that UFC were trying to bring in a load of female fighters

I think this data is skewed by the new 115 division. Womens 135lb debutants are the joint lowest (along with flyweight). The womens BW division in its first year, the entire roster (29 fighters) had to be brought in.

Wrongway1985

Mellor wrote: »

Good work, but I’ve spoted a few issues.
Your wins are losses don’t tally up, this is an issue if you are using the data to determine bets.
For example fight stance, all options (ortho, southpaw, switch) have win %’s above 50%. That isn’t possible. But its appearing because the win colume totals 100fight, and the loss totals 70.

Same thing appears with age performance.


I think this data is skewed by the new 115 division. Womens 135lb debutants are the joint lowest (along with flyweight). The womens BW division in its first year, the entire roster (29 fighters) had to be brought in.

SW ya mean:)

MMATycoon

It's because we don't have all the fighters' ages and stances logged. I made a note about it on the bottom of the stances page. So we have fighters' wins logged against people who aren't in our system for a height / stance.

Basically I've tended to watch better fighters, so there will be more wins than losses... but the concept still works in terms of which stance / age is doing better.

As for the page about debuts. That doesn't really make a massive amount of sense out of context. Basically I was trying to add some stats to this blog about women's MMA not being neglected by the UFC.

Mellor

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

SW ya mean:)

Whoops, yeah of course.

MMATycoon wrote: »

Basically I've tended to watch better fighters, so there will be more wins than losses... but the concept still works in terms of which stance / age is doing better.

It actually doesn't, you are using a selective sample. Maybe southpaws lose on average, buy the ones you've are the minority that do it well.

The flaw becomes greater if somebody use that data and applied it to a fighter who wasn't logged.

But I do understand that you can only log the total bit by bit. Maybe it might work better to log fights, rather than fighters. You’ll have some incomplete fighters logged, but the wins/losses should tally.

MMATycoon

Mellor wrote: »

Whoops, yeah of course.

It actually doesn't, you are using a selective sample. Maybe southpaws lose on average, buy the ones you've are the minority that do it well.

The flaw becomes greater if somebody use that data and applied it to a fighter who wasn't logged.

But I do understand that you can only log the total bit by bit. Maybe it might work better to log fights, rather than fighters. You’ll have some incomplete fighters logged, but the wins/losses should tally.

You could say the concept doesn't work if you just log fights, as basically you're saying it doesn't work due to lack of a complete sample either way. Anyway, I know you're not saying it with malice, so I'm not offended or anything... Just you can apply the same criticism whichever way you look at it, until you have a complete sample.

edit - when I have more data, I will be adding "southpaw vs orthodox" etc, and also adding filters like that to the other overall stats pages.

Mellor

No malice at all, just genuine input to improve the confidence in data overall.
It has the potential to be a really useful data set

Depp

great resource lad keep up the good work!

MMATycoon

Just finished another stats page for your perusal

Top 10 biggest underdog winners in the UFC per division

MMATycoon

This next one's prob my favourite one so far. Basically a page that auto-updates to display stats on whatever the next UFC event is. I've included a vs breakdown for each fight with height / reach / stance etc. Still not 100% finished but nearly... You can access this from the homepage, then click on the next event URL top left.

Next UFC Event.

MMATycoon

Mellor wrote: »

No malice at all, just genuine input to improve the confidence in data overall.
It has the potential to be a really useful data set

Updated the fighter stances page to include specifically fights where we have both fighters' stance logged. Not many fights yet BUT, same pattern appearing... Southpaw dominates Orthodox and Switch dominates both:

Orthodox vs Southpaw Fights TKOs Subs Decisions
Orthodox beat Southpaw 8 (32%) 2 (8%) 3 (12%) 3 (12%)
Southpaw beat Orthodox 17 (68%) 5 (20%) 2 (8%) 10 (40%)


Orthodox vs Switch Fights TKOs Subs Decisions
Orthodox beat Switch 6 (33%) 2 (11%) 3 (17%) 1 (6%)
Switch beat Orthodox 12 (67%) 4 (22%) 4 (22%) 4 (22%)


Switch vs Southpaw Fights TKOs Subs Decisions
Switch beat Southpaw 3 (75%) 1 (25%) 1 (25%) 1 (25%)
Southpaw beat Switch 1 (25%) (0%) 1 (25%) (0%)

Paully D

Is there any stat for how often fighters that don't make weight win/lose? And following on from that, maybe something that indicates the increase/decrease in chances of them winning the more they miss weight by?

If not, it'd be an interesting one IMO.

MMATycoon

There is indeed - I did that one since I last posted
Haven't posted in here for a while but got the email notification of this post.

UFC - Fighters who miss weight win %
Similar to that one we've got the
UFC late replacement win %, which is pretty interesting.


I've also just massively improved the UFC Fighter Age Stats / Win % page.... Spent all day on that one today.

I've also done a load of list pages;
Average UFC Fight Time
UFC Event Attendances
UFC Event Gate Receipts
UFC PPV Numbers


In general the site's starting to take off nicely now. I've also released two android apps (one that's a conversion of all these stats pages) and we've had loads of handicappers sign up too, so I'm overall pretty happy how it's progressing Still a massive amount of work though obviously!

Paully D

Awesome, thanks MMATycoon. Keep up the good work.

MMATycoon

No probs, just seen that Trevino missed weight, which is why you've asked.

Trevino is in that odds range where people very rarely win; he'd be the 11th biggest dog to win since we started logging picks.
Biggest UFC Underdog Winners

In terms of a fighter making their debut as a favourite, I haven't isolated the stats yet but you can see them here and figure it out;
UFC Debut stats

The biggest favourite to lose was -376 Konstantin Erokhin, who's a heavyweight and those guys are a law unto themselves. Anything over -400 seems like a pretty good bet, statistically. Although having said that, fighters in that odds range are currently underperforming their odds; scroll down to check the odds ranges on this page.

From my personal perspective, I don't know anything about either guy particularly. What I would say is that I think Johnny Case looks a very good prospect, from watching him better Frankie Perez from pillar to post. That's Trevino's only loss. However, you'd be surprised if the UFC matched Sage (what sort of a name is sage for a fighter?) against someone who was a bad matchup.

ASOT

MMATycoon wrote: »

No probs, just seen that Trevino missed weight, which is why you've asked.

Trevino is in that odds range where people very rarely win; he'd be the 11th biggest dog to win since we started logging picks.
Biggest UFC Underdog Winners

In terms of a fighter making their debut as a favourite, I haven't isolated the stats yet but you can see them here and figure it out;
UFC Debut stats

The biggest favourite to lose was -376 Konstantin Erokhin, who's a heavyweight and those guys are a law unto themselves. Anything over -400 seems like a pretty good bet, statistically. Although having said that, fighters in that odds range are currently underperforming their odds; scroll down to check the odds ranges on this page.

From my personal perspective, I don't know anything about either guy particularly. What I would say is that I think Johnny Case looks a very good prospect, from watching him better Frankie Perez from pillar to post. That's Trevino's only loss. However, you'd be surprised if the UFC matched Sage (what sort of a name is sage for a fighter?) against someone who was a bad matchup.

Exactly why I think that fight u2.5 rounds at 5/4 is a massive price, Sage will look to perform really way and like you said I doubt the UFC would want to match him up badly in his debut. But it's the fight game anything can happen let's hope it comes off!

MMATycoon

Been a while since I updated this thread. Thought I'd let you guys know I did an

Over / under MMA betting stats page. The overall stats are fairly uninspiring but when filtered there are some really good opportunities for betting