New Party: The Social Democrats.

K-9

Looks 3 guaranteed with maybe 2 possibles. They should have a base to build on which isn't bad, Renua might not have that come the end of the day.

hmmm

They're performing very well, but I can't see any staying power - most people I know are giving them a vote purely based on one individual, and don't know all that much about their policies or what they stand for.

An Ciarraioch

hmmm wrote: »

They're performing very well, but I can't see any staying power - most people I know are giving them a vote purely based on one individual, and don't know all that much about their policies or what they stand for.

In fairness, if we're looking at FG-FF for the short-term, merely being "Old Labour" should see the support base grow by its own accord.

monkey9

stilltryingit wrote: »

Not happy with the Soc Dem policy of abolishing the special criminal court,those who testify need to be protected

Where have they said that?

nice_guy80

They should have fielded more candidates!

Could have won up to 10 seats

Fr Tod Umptious

nice_guy80 wrote: »

They should have fielded more candidates!

Could have won up to 10 seats

They won 3 seats, their 3 sitting TDs.
I don't think they are in the running for any more.

Another poster on another thread defended their 3 seat performance by saying that the other candidates were not as well known as the 3 incumbents.

So going by that logic running more candidates would have got them nowhere.

K-9

Think they had 1 more in the running for a last seat, didn't hear after that. If they can build a base of Councillors in the locals that will be a big help.

keane2097

Gary Gannon was within a whisker of the third seat in Dublin central.

loyatemu

For a party starting from scratch they've done reasonably well.

The Journal made the point that another election this year might well suit them, particularly as it might thin out the number of random independent candidates.

nice_guy80

Only the big parties want another election

they have the finances for it

Jolly Red Giant

loyatemu wrote: »

For a party starting from scratch they've done reasonably well.

The Journal made the point that another election this year might well suit them, particularly as it might thin out the number of random independent candidates.

The media have been raving about the 'surge' of the SDs - yet the AAA/PBP have won 6 with a possible 7th and only one of these TDs was elected in 2011 - unlike the SDs who had a previously poll topping LP junior minister, and two high profile Independent TDs. On top of that the AAA/PBP came within a couple of hundred of winning in Limerick, were not far away from a second seat in DSW and have just been eliminated with 6200 votes in Louth. The SDs weren't remotely close in any other constituency except DC and when you look at the numbers were never actually going to win that one either.

Fr Tod Umptious

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

The media have been raving about the 'surge' of the SDs - yet the AAA/PBP have won 6 with a possible 7th and only one of these TDs was elected in 2011 - unlike the SDs who had a previously poll topping LP junior minister, and two high profile Independent TDs. On top of that the AAA/PBP came within a couple of hundred of winning in Limerick, were not far away from a second seat in DSW and have just been eliminated with 6200 votes in Louth. The SDs weren't remotely close in any other constituency except DC and when you look at the numbers were never actually going to win that one either.

I think a lot of the guff around the SDs is Donnelly and his ability to talk.

K-9

They are only going 6 months or so, look at Renua to see how easy it is.

Lockstep

I dunno, it is certainly possible for a small party to burst onto the scene: the PDs formed in December 1985 and just one year later hoovered up 14 votes and 12% of the vote.

K-9

Not as much competition then and the PD's quickly fell back.

They have a chance to build a base. A lot depends on if Labour can recover with so many of the old guard gone but there's a lot of positives for them. The left is a crowded market place though!

They've 3 good TD's though who will attract attention in the Dail and the media, get maybe 15/20 councillors and they might reach the magic 7 needed next time.

Tom.D.BJJ

K-9 wrote: »

Not as much competition then and the PD's quickly fell back.

They have a chance to build a base. A lot depends on if Labour can recover with so many of the old guard gone but there's a lot of positives for them. The left is a crowded market place though!

They've 3 good TD's though who will attract attention in the Dail and the media, get maybe 15/20 councillors and they might reach the magic 7 needed next time.

I've seen a lot of people saying they would vote SD if there was a candidate in their constituency.

Gannon was very close to a seat in Dublin central, O'Callaghan was very creditable in DBN, as was O'Tuathail in Galway, and Heffernan in Limerick. That's the four extra seats needed next time around.

Honestly i think the SDs will grow and grow with basic common sense policies.

As an aside. There's a big opportunity for any party to get in front of the pack by petitioning to repeal the 8th amendment, and make an impact on a national stage.

Chips Lovell

I think they'll regard it as a mixed bag. One the positive side, they increased their visibility, did well at the debate, saw their sitting TDs elected comfortably and blooded new candidates.

On the negative side, they're fishing from the same pond as Labour and you'd want to worry that they didn't make gains with Labour hitting a low watermark.

Jep Gambardella

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

I think they'll regard it as a mixed bag. One the positive side, they increased their visibility, did well at the debate, saw their sitting TDs elected comfortably and blooded new candidates.

On the negative side, they're fishing from the same pond as Labour and you'd want to worry that they didn't make gains with Labour hitting a low watermark.

You could also suggest that they split the vote with Labour in a couple of places.

They could be part of the reason for Labour's low watermark!

expectationlost

'Independents 4 change' party got as many TDs and maybe 1 more then the SDs media won't even mention then

K-9

Deleted User wrote: »

You could also suggest that they split the vote with Labour in a couple of places.

They could be part of the reason for Labour's low watermark!

That's true, Labour just didn't pick up as many transfers from the left as they should have due to unpopularity. It's hard to know what Labour do now with so many of the old guard gone. Personally I don't think they'll ever get back to 30/40 seats again with SF aiming for that as well.

Baggy Trousers

I think the SDs might poach some more Independents over the next few weeks and months.
They came out of this election with high profile and credibility.

Lockstep

The SocDems didn't do as well I expected: they had some high profile candidates (Heffernan, O'Callaghan, Gannon) and failed to get any additional seats. I know they're a fairly new party but considering the collapse of the Labour vote, I'd have expected them to get a few new seats, given the niche on the centre-left. Especially on the back of former Labourites like Heffernan (who ran without any Labour competition and still saw vote fall from 2011) and O'Callaghan (who got an extra 1000 votes compared to when he ran for the council in 2014.

Baggy Trousers

Lockstep wrote: »

The SocDems didn't do as well I expected: they had some high profile candidates (Heffernan, O'Callaghan, Gannon) and failed to get any additional seats. I know they're a fairly new party but considering the collapse of the Labour vote, I'd have expected them to get a few new seats, given the niche on the centre-left. Especially on the back of former Labourites like Heffernan (who ran without any Labour competition and still saw vote fall from 2011) and O'Callaghan (who got an extra 1000 votes compared to when he ran for the council in 2014.

I don't think they had enough time. Their candidates were largely unknown. They were only created last summer. I gave a #1 to Niall O'Tuathail in Galway West even though I only first heard of him a few weeks ago. He did pretty good for a 1st election in Galway West.

Lockstep

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I don't think they had enough time. Their candidates were largely unknown. They were only created last summer. I gave a #1 to Niall O'Tuathail in Galway West even though I only first heard of him a few weeks ago. He did pretty good for a 1st election in Galway West.

Niall did well but he had little chance when Connolly hoovered up those disaffected with Labour, especially given Nolan's drastically fallen vote. He also had a high profile already in the city from the Yes Equality campaign.
On a national level, they could have done much better: the main beneficiaries were their existing TDs but they made little expansion beyond this, even with running already high profile candidates.


I'd say the main issue facing the SocDems is how they'll turn on issues: they're very vocal on repealing the 8th but have kept tight lipped on what will come afterwards (adopting the FG "citizens assembly" is their only suggestion) This is almost certainly due to Shorthall who is fairly conservative on the matter: she opposed the X case legislation due to the suicide clause and its lack of gestational limits.

Likewise, their manifesto isn't costed so if they have to make economic decisions on how to pay for things like an Irish NHS they might lose former FF candidates (like Curtain) over left candidates like O'Callaghan (former Democratic Left). While they focus on social issues, they're a great alternative to Labour but dunno how this will play out when they're expected to be more concrete in their policies. It's unlikely Labour will be so toxic next time (look at the resurgence of the Greens after their collapse in 2011) so the SocDems are unlikely to have as much of a niche to carve out as they did this time.

Lockstep

Lockstep wrote: »

Niall did well but he had little chance when Connolly hoovered up those disaffected with Labour, especially given Nolan's drastically fallen vote. He also had a high profile already in the city from the Yes Equality campaign.
On a national level, they could have done much better: the main beneficiaries were their existing TDs but they made little expansion beyond this, even with running already high profile candidates.


I'd say the main issue facing the SocDems is how they'll turn on issues: they're very vocal on repealing the 8th but have kept tight lipped on what will come afterwards (adopting the FG "citizens assembly" is their only suggestion) This is almost certainly due to Shorthall who is fairly conservative on the matter: she opposed the X case legislation due to the suicide clause and its lack of gestational limits.

Likewise, their manifesto isn't costed so if they have to make economic decisions on how to pay for things like an Irish NHS they might lose former FF candidates (like Curtain) over left candidates like O'Callaghan (former Democratic Left). While they focus on social issues, they're a great alternative to Labour but dunno how this will play out when they're expected to be more concrete in their policies. It's unlikely Labour will be so toxic next time (look at the resurgence of the Greens after their collapse in 2011) so the SocDems are unlikely to have as much of a niche to carve out as they did this time.

They didn't cost it as they didn't need to. They weren't expecting to get into govt and had no funding. I imagine it costs a fair bit to cost a manifesto.

I think this election was more of a water test for the next one, which they'll be more prepared for.

An Ciarraioch

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They didn't cost it as they didn't need to. They weren't expecting to get into govt and had no funding. I imagine it costs a fair bit to cost a manifesto.

I think this election was more of a water test for the next one, which they'll be more prepared for.

Indeed, the Greens had 36 candidates, and had elected 15 councillors in 2014, while the AAA-PBP were also coming off the back of highly-successful locals. If the SDs make no further progress next time after fielding candidates in every constituency, then it'll be a complete failure, but they're still at the development phase compared to the rest of the left.

Annasopra

nice_guy80 wrote: »

They should have fielded more candidates!

Could have won up to 10 seats

I don't see how. They ran 14. They won 3.

Lockstep

Deleted User wrote: »

They didn't cost it as they didn't need to. They weren't expecting to get into govt and had no funding. I imagine it costs a fair bit to cost a manifesto.

I think this election was more of a water test for the next one, which they'll be more prepared for.

Which is a very weak argument for a party seeking election: it's great to promise free everything and another to say how you'd pay for it. Their 2016 budget proposal was very moderate and costed but their manifesto relied on a variety of expensive proposals (such as an Irish NHS) without details on how much it would cost or where the money would be raised (aside from refusing to cut USC)
Sinn Féin proposed an Irish NHS and estimated it would cost billions. If the SDs don't know how they'll fund it, it doesn't make them appear very credible on policy.

I'm not buying the "we can't afford to cost it" argument either. They had 3 sitting TDs. Far more than the Greens (who's manifesto *was* costed)

Fr Tod Umptious

There is an air of "smoked salmon socialist" about the SDs.

They seem to be the pick of those who cannot stomach SF and think the likes of Gino Kelly belongs in the National Stadium rather than the national parliament.

Donnelly is a good talker fair enough but I think that's about it.

You would really have to wonder how they only got three if they are filling a Labour gap as some are suggesting.

Plus I'm sure Shorthall was not that popular on many form here with her proposals on the alcohol industry while she was in the Department of Health.

I'll give them a few more years before they fizzle out or merge into Labour.

Skylinehead

Lockstep wrote: »

The SocDems didn't do as well I expected: they had some high profile candidates (Heffernan, O'Callaghan, Gannon) and failed to get any additional seats. I know they're a fairly new party but considering the collapse of the Labour vote, I'd have expected them to get a few new seats, given the niche on the centre-left. Especially on the back of former Labourites like Heffernan (who ran without any Labour competition and still saw vote fall from 2011) and O'Callaghan (who got an extra 1000 votes compared to when he ran for the council in 2014.

I wouldn't call Gannon high profile. A 29 year old first-time DCC councillor, who almost beat Maureen O'Sullivan, who's effectively carrying on from Tony Gregory? That's good going.

IRLConor

Skylinehead wrote: »

I wouldn't call Gannon high profile. A 29 year old first-time DCC councillor, who almost beat Maureen O'Sullivan, who's effectively carrying on from Tony Gregory? That's good going.

Not to mention that Maureen O'Sullivan only got in because of where and when Christy Burke was eliminated. She'd always attract a few more transfers from him given their local profiles.

Both Gannon and O'Sullivan were very transfer friendly, picking up (on average) 23% and 24% of transfers respectively. That's roughly 10% better than the next best candidates. If Gannon puts the legwork in locally he'll have a fairly good shot at taking a seat in the future.

An Ciarraioch

Of course, Martin's reforms may alter matters, but are we looking at a Dáil Left Bloc of Labour, AAA-PBP, SD and Greens?

K-9

AAA see Labour as right wing so that one is out. I'd imagine SD, Labour and Green could cooperate.

Lockstep

Skylinehead wrote: »

I wouldn't call Gannon high profile. A 29 year old first-time DCC councillor, who almost beat Maureen O'Sullivan, who's effectively carrying on from Tony Gregory? That's good going.

He's an inner city councillor who.had a huge niche in a constituency where Labour's vote was down by 20% of the vote. Considering how many centre left votes are in the constitutuency, it's not much of a result. He did very well in transfers but surprisingly low in first preferences considering his potential

IRLConor

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Of course, Martin's reforms may alter matters, but are we looking at a Dáil Left Bloc of Labour, AAA-PBP, SD and Greens?

FF+FG+Independents who used to be FF/FG/PD have almost twice the number of seats compared to everyone else. So even if everyone else cooperated (fat chance!) it would be mostly irrelevant.

I can't see Labour, AAA-PBP, SD and Greens making any sort of overt cooperation (apart from maybe a technical group for speaking time) because there's nothing really to be gained by it. If the left and centre-left parties had enough seats to have a go at government I could see them talking about a coalition but right now they probably have as much to lose as gain by cooperating.

Skylinehead

Lockstep wrote: »

He's an inner city councillor who.had a huge niche in a constituency where Labour's vote was down by 20% of the vote. Considering how many centre left votes are in the constitutuency, it's not much of a result. He did very well in transfers but surprisingly low in first preferences considering his potential

There was an awful lot of left/centre left candidates for a 3 seater though. And you have to take into account the stature of them. Mary Lou was always going to run away with it, Christy Burke is well known, even if he's never won anything, Maureen O'Sullivan is Tony Gregory effectively, and Joe Costello.

Lockstep

Skylinehead wrote: »

There was an awful lot of left/centre left candidates for a 3 seater though. And you have to take into account the stature of them. Mary Lou was always going to run away with it, Christy Burke is well known, even if he's never won anything, Maureen O'Sullivan is Tony Gregory effectively, and Joe Costello.

There's a lot of left candidates but no centre left ones aside from Joe Costello. Given Labour's vote dropped by 20%, they had a huge opportunity to capitalise on this and fill the niche for moderate leftists and liberals. They failed to deliver on this at a time Labour collapsed. it's unlikely Labour will be as weak next time.

IRLConor

Lockstep wrote: »

There's a lot of left candidates but no centre left ones aside from Joe Costello. Given Labour's vote dropped by 20%, they had a huge opportunity to capitalise on this and fill the niche for moderate leftists and liberals. They failed to deliver on this at a time Labour collapsed. it's unlikely Labour will be as weak next time.

Most of Joe Costello's vote appeared to go to Mary Lou McDonald and Christy Burke. There were seven candidates in Dublin Central that contested both 2011 and 2016 and in both elections those seven took approximately 80% of the total valid poll between them.

Here's how the first preferences for those candidates breaks down (it's best to look at shares rather than votes since the electorate dropped by ~10,000 and the turnout dropped by ~10%):

Candidate|2011 Votes|2016 Votes|2011 Share|2016 Share|Difference
Christy Burke|1315|2406|3.8%|10.2%|+167.4%
Joe Costello|6273|2092|18.1%|8.8%|-51.3%
Paschal Donohoe|6903|3226|19.9%|13.6%|-31.7%
Mary Fitzpatrick|3504|2508|10.1%|10.6%|+4.6%
Mary Lou McDonald|4526|5770|13.1%|24.4%|+86.3%
Maureen O’Sullivan|4139|1990|12.0%|8.4%|-29.7%
Cieran Perry|1394|1242|4.0%|5.2%|+30.2%


Yes, some of the boost for McDonald and Burke came from Paschal Donohoe but the right->left swing was only about 8% so most of the increase for them must have come from Joe Costello (and to a lesser extent Maureen O'Sullivan).

seamus

Few suggestions flying around at the moment that the IA might merge into the SDs - that'll give them speaking rights at the next Dail (and RTE debates!) and a wider spread of candidates at the next election.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Few suggestions flying around at the moment that the IA might merge into the SDs - that'll give them speaking rights at the next Dail (and RTE debates!) and a wider spread of candidates at the next election.

Would be a good call, less fractures please!

IA would hopefully get rid of that awful name too!

loyatemu

IA are mostly right-wing or local issue candidates though. Donnelly was close to Shane Ross at the start of the last Dáil, but has moved to the left since starting the SocDems and declined to get involved with Ross's idea when it was first suggested.

They could form a technical group with the Greens and a few other left-leaning indies (e.g. Katherine Zappone, who they should probably try and recruit to the party itself).

K-9

Ross was saying he'd hope to have up to 10 in his group. Maybe SD/Green and 2 Independents.

loyatemu

K-9 wrote: »

Ross was saying he'd hope to have up to 10 in his group. Maybe SD/Green and 2 Independents.

here are the independents, Ross only needs 1 of them for speaking rights.

In the last Dáil only 1 technical group was permitted, but possibly FF's proposed "reforms" will allow more (they didn't seem too interested in reform during their previous 14 years in power...)

K-9

Didn't know that, I'd say it would definitely be something the smaller parties and groups want, plus it seems this is the way the Dail will be for the foreseeable anyway.

Sleepy

Donnelly was on Newstalk yesterday evening and made a passing complimentary remark about Katherine Zappone. I'd be very surprised if she doesn't end up a Social Democrat candidate before the end of the year.

You'd also think Catherine Connolly in Galway would be of broadly the same political leanings?

Tommy Broughan is already with Independents 4 Change but they don't seem to be too cohesive a group...

it wouldn't seem impossible for the Social Democrats to up their numbers to the magical number 7 through poaching some Independents?

K-9

Yeah, there's a few Labour gene pool Independents. SD are certainly more attractive an option atm. Next election will be telling for Labour with so much competition from the left and FF fighting to hold their gains.

An Ciarraioch

Sleepy wrote: »

Donnelly was on Newstalk yesterday evening and made a passing complimentary remark about Katherine Zappone. I'd be very surprised if she doesn't end up a Social Democrat candidate before the end of the year.

You'd also think Catherine Connolly in Galway would be of broadly the same political leanings?

Tommy Broughan is already with Independents 4 Change but they don't seem to be too cohesive a group...

it wouldn't seem impossible for the Social Democrats to up their numbers to the magical number 7 through poaching some Independents?

In terms of Europe, Nessa Childers seems politically close to the SDs, but mind you, that would already become her third party, after spells in Labour and Greens, so might be better off without her ...

Lockstep

IRLConor wrote: »

Most of Joe Costello's vote appeared to go to Mary Lou McDonald and Christy Burke. There were seven candidates in Dublin Central that contested both 2011 and 2016 and in both elections those seven took approximately 80% of the total valid poll between them.

Here's how the first preferences for those candidates breaks down (it's best to look at shares rather than votes since the electorate dropped by ~10,000 and the turnout dropped by ~10%):

Candidate|2011 Votes|2016 Votes|2011 Share|2016 Share|Difference
Christy Burke|1315|2406|3.8%|10.2%|+167.4%
Joe Costello|6273|2092|18.1%|8.8%|-51.3%
Paschal Donohoe|6903|3226|19.9%|13.6%|-31.7%
Mary Fitzpatrick|3504|2508|10.1%|10.6%|+4.6%
Mary Lou McDonald|4526|5770|13.1%|24.4%|+86.3%
Maureen O’Sullivan|4139|1990|12.0%|8.4%|-29.7%
Cieran Perry|1394|1242|4.0%|5.2%|+30.2%


Yes, some of the boost for McDonald and Burke came from Paschal Donohoe but the right->left swing was only about 8% so most of the increase for them must have come from Joe Costello (and to a lesser extent Maureen O'Sullivan).

Dublin Central normally has turnout around 55% so the 2011 election was unusual rather the norm for its high turnout. Nonetheless, Costello normally gets around 12% of the vote The key exception to this was when he got 18% and his running mate got 10%. That Labour's vote collapsed to just 8% is a weird one and the main centre-left alternative didn't hoover up the votes as Costello isn't a left wing TD or in a left wing party. Notably, most of his transfers went to Donohue (FG) rather than any of the left wing alternatives or even Gannon.

Lockstep

K-9 wrote: »

Ross was saying he'd hope to have up to 10 in his group. Maybe SD/Green and 2 Independents.

Don't the IA oppose the use of the whip? Might be a problem for the SDs and Greens, unless the IA agrees to a whip for some of its members. The SocDems and Greens could form a technicaly group with indpendents and the AAA-PBP but given the last TG had a whip, I doubt the IA will take part in it.

AFAIK, they wouldn't get speaking rights for TDs joining up after the election: Dáil Standing Ordersl gives speaking rights to parties which had 7 members elected at an election. The only way this could change is if they make up additional numbers at a by-election.

The only alternative is to form a technical group but only one of these can exist at a time. Considering the current technical group includes a whip, I doubt the IA will sign up for this.

An Ciarraioch

Sleepy wrote: »

Donnelly was on Newstalk yesterday evening and made a passing complimentary remark about Katherine Zappone. I'd be very surprised if she doesn't end up a Social Democrat candidate before the end of the year.

You'd also think Catherine Connolly in Galway would be of broadly the same political leanings?

Tommy Broughan is already with Independents 4 Change but they don't seem to be too cohesive a group...

it wouldn't seem impossible for the Social Democrats to up their numbers to the magical number 7 through poaching some Independents?

Claims on Politics.ie that Connolly has had discussions with the party ...