2015 Footballer Of The Year.

Nidgeweasel

keeponhurling wrote: »

McManus outperformed Murphy in the Ulster final, and as a result his county are champions.
So I would have him ahead.

A fair point. But their influence on both their teams has been broadly similar.

Dirty Dingus McGee

If the title of the award was Most Valuable Player (MVP) like it is in American sports Conor McManus would be miles ahead in that race as he is basically a one man forward line.Take him out of Monaghans team and there would be a significant drop in the teams levels greater than any other of the top teams would be affected by the loss of one player.

Imagine how good he would be if he played for Dublin,Kerry,Mayo or Donegal who have other players on the team capabale of taking attention away from him.

Slightly off topic but it illustrates how good a player he is.

wp_rathead

Aidan O'Sheas odds will have shortened after today I feel

keeponhurling

And ends any possibility of McManus getting it

Tom Joad

wp_rathead wrote: »

Aidan O'Sheas odds will have shortened after today I feel

Would agree that. He's the favourite for me now. Most influential player in the championship so far. His goal was something else - not many players could do that.

tanko

keeponhurling wrote: »

And ends any possibility of McManus getting it

The point he kicked from distance on the right wing in the second half was some score.

davegrohl48

tanko wrote: »

The point he kicked from distance on the right wing from distance in the second half was some score.

Thought it was the point of the championship along with Murphys versus Galway

harpsman

Tom Joad wrote: »

Would agree that. He's the favourite for me now. Most influential player in the championship so far. His goal was something else - not many players could do that.

Hmmm not so sure, just dont think Mayo have the quality to go all the way so imo most likely a Kerry/Dublin man

Stopitwillya

Johnny Buckley or Donahy for me at the moment.

King Cantona

Diarmuid Connolly 5/2
David Moran 11/4
Aidan O'Shea 7/2
James O'Donoghue 6/1
Bernard Brogan 9/1
Colm Cooper 12/1
Paul Flynn 16/1
Peter Harte 20/1

Updated odds.

munster87

Stopitwillya wrote: »

Johnny Buckley or Donahy for me at the moment.

If it's a Kerry man it won't be either of them imo

keeponhurling

Is Connolly as favourite because of what he might do, rather than what he has done so far ?

As I posted earlier, the only way I see him winning it is if Dublin win Sam and he is MOTM or close to it in both semi and final

Same with Gooch, especially as I think he has only started one match all year

keane2097

keeponhurling wrote: »

Is Connolly as favourite because of what he might do, rather than what he has done so far ?

As I posted earlier, the only way I see him winning it is if Dublin win Sam and he is MOTM or close to it in both semi and final

Same with Gooch, especially as I think he has only started one match all year

He's started two matches.

seligehgit

keeponhurling wrote: »

Is Connolly as favourite because of what he might do, rather than what he has done so far ?

As I posted earlier, the only way I see him winning it is if Dublin win Sam and he is MOTM or close to it in both semi and final

Same with Gooch, especially as I think he has only started one match all year

Agreed it is a tad laughable to have Diarmuid Connolly favourite for POTY based on his performances thus far.He will have to produce 2 great performances in the semi final and final to wrestle that mantle from the now deserved favourite David Moran.He seems to be favourite on reputation alone.

If Aidan O Shea ends up the season with a Celtic Cross medal,based on current form he will win POTY.

TCDStudent1

keeponhurling wrote: »

Is Connolly as favourite because of what he might do, rather than what he has done so far ?

As I posted earlier, the only way I see him winning it is if Dublin win Sam and he is MOTM or close to it in both semi and final

Same with Gooch, especially as I think he has only started one match all year

I think that's the case. The all Ireland final is the hardest place to turn it on, the all Ireland semi the second hardest etc. therefore those matches should have more weighting towards the poty. Most people can kick a point from 50 years on their bad wing from over the bar, but doing it against the best defenders in the country (who you'll be facing in August and September) and in front of 80000 spectators is a whole different thing. At the moment o'shea looks good but if he plays badly against Dublin and Mayo lose, he won't get it. On the other hand if Dublin win and Connolly plays a big part in that, he will be right up there.
People say o'donoghue had it wrapped up last year. I'm not so sure. If he didn't carry his form into ai series, he wouldn't have won it

DoctaDee

keeponhurling wrote: »

Is Connolly as favourite because of what he might do, rather than what he has done so far ?

As I posted earlier, the only way I see him winning it is if Dublin win Sam and he is MOTM or close to it in both semi and fainal

Same with Gooch, especially as I think he has only started one match all year

FOTY and the All Stars only pander to the barstools. Ask Diarmuid Connolly on the 3rd Sunday in September if he has a winners medal in his hand whether he's excitef at the prospect of being FOTY :rolleyes:

seligehgit

DoctaDee wrote: »

FOTY and the All Stars only pander to the barstools. Ask Diarmuid Connolly on the 3rd Sunday in September if he has a winners medal in his hand whether he's excitef at the prospect of being FOTY :rolleyes:

Certainly for a player of Diarmuid Connolly's stature and likelihood of winning an All Ireland medal it might'nt matter a lot.Obviously winning a Celtic cross medal is the supreme objective,it might be a nice added bonus.Try asking a Charlie Harrison from Sligo or Barry Owens from Fermanagh if an All Star is of so little value.The players greatly value these individual awards,ditto been named POTY.

keane2097

DoctaDee wrote: »

FOTY and the All Stars only pander to the barstools. Ask Diarmuid Connolly on the 3rd Sunday in September if he has a winners medal in his hand whether he's excitef at the prospect of being FOTY :rolleyes:

Is that why in the immediate aftermath of winning the All Ireland in 2011 Bernard Brogan went out of his way to canvass for Alan to be named FOTY in an on pitch interview?

It's obviously a very meaningful award.

DoctaDee

keane2097 wrote: »

Is that why in the immediate aftermath of winning the All Ireland in 2011 Bernard Brogan went out of his way to canvass for Alan to be named FOTY in an on pitch interview?

It's obviously a very meaningful award.

It obviously meant a lot to Bernard to have his brother named FOTY..It has a shelf life of a couple of weeks. Same as whoever was player of tournament in 6 nations for example

ProudDUB

Stopitwillya wrote: »

Johnny Buckley or Donahy for me at the moment.

You chose your user name well !

King Cantona wrote: »

Diarmuid Connolly 5/2
David Moran 11/4
Aidan O'Shea 7/2
James O'Donoghue 6/1
Bernard Brogan 9/1
Colm Cooper 12/1
Paul Flynn 16/1
Peter Harte 20/1

Updated odds.

Bit of dodginess on that list imo. I'd say there are a lot of Dubs who either put money down on Paul Flynn at the start of the year, or they are doing so now, based purely on his reputation, 4 All Stars in a row etc etc. Unfortunately, he is having one of his poorest years so far for us. I am finding it hard to believe that people are watching him play and, then running into the bookies and slapping down money on him winning FOTY.

DoctaDee wrote: »

FOTY and the All Stars only pander to the barstools. Ask Diarmuid Connolly on the 3rd Sunday in September if he has a winners medal in his hand whether he's excitef at the prospect of being FOTY

Nothing at all wrong with wanting to win both and being happy when you do imo. Didn't Paul Galvin say that winning FOTY was a goal of his? It's an individual award for excellence, voted on by your peers. Of course DC would want to win it. Why wouldn't he? He's only human. Does he care about it more than winning another All Ireland? No, of course not. No one is saying he would. I genuinely don't understand why people compare them in that context, as if players are only allowed to "want" to win one of them.

The AI medal is a team award. The FOTY & All Star trophies are individual one. All sports have them and the players who are up for them, generally turn up in droves when they are being handed out. Enjoying getting a pat on the back for a job well done is just human nature, especially when it is from your peers. GAA players are no different.

Boom__Boom

ProudDUB wrote: »

You chose your user name well !

Bit of dodginess on that list imo. I'd say there are a lot of Dubs who either put money down on Paul Flynn at the start of the year, or they are doing so now, based purely on his reputation, 4 All Stars in a row etc etc. Unfortunately, he is having one of his poorest years so far for us. I am finding it hard to believe that people are watching him play and then running into the bookies and slapping down money on him winning FOTY.

I definitely think the money down has influenced the odds strongly.
The history of the players from teams winning it also has a huge issue on the odds. Looking at that list the only two I could possibly see winning it even if they team does lose the All-Ireland are Moran and O'Se.
Another big factor has to be whether or not a player has already won it - I'd say it would be a large factor in why Bernard Brogan who has been Dublin's top attacker by far is 9/1 whereas Connolly is 5/2. I'd imagine that a fair few punters might be backing this in the expectation that Dublin would win Sam and Connolly hasn't won FOTY so would be a strong contendor on that basis.

keeponhurling

King Cantona wrote: »

Diarmuid Connolly 5/2
David Moran 11/4
Aidan O'Shea 7/2
James O'Donoghue 6/1
Bernard Brogan 9/1
Colm Cooper 12/1
Paul Flynn 16/1
Peter Harte 20/1

Updated odds.

Interesting that in the semi finals, nearly all of the above had poor/quiet matches.
Looks like somebody might well win it by default!

keane2097

Seems like it will come down to the final.

ProudDUB

Or the replay.

A massive game from O'Shea or Brogan and they will go into the final as joint favourites with Moran I'd imagine. I think Connolly did his chance no favours in getting himself sent off. Even if his red card gets over turned, Dublin go all the way and he has 2 massive games, will people vote for him with his .... eh... temperament issues?

Then again, the Footballer of the Year is voted on by the players & not the media, isn't it? Perhaps his fellow players will be more understanding of those red mist moments, than journalists up in their ivory towers. :rolleyes:

keane2097

ProudDUB wrote: »

Or the replay.

A massive game from O'Shea or Brogan and they will go into the final as joint favourites with Moran I'd imagine. I think Connolly did his chance no favours in getting himself sent off. Even if his red card gets over turned, Dublin go all the way and he has 2 massive games, will people vote for him with his .... eh... temperament issues?

Then again, the Footballer of the Year is voted on by the players & not the media, isn't it? Perhaps his fellow players will be more understanding of those red mist moments, than journalists up in their ivory towers. :rolleyes:

There used to be a rule that you couldn't get an All Star if you had gotten a red card, not sure if that's still a thing?

Boom__Boom

The FOTY award has been given out 20 times.

17 out of those 20 times, it has gone to a member of the winning team.

The three occasions it didn't go to a member of the winning team was
1995 when Peter Canavan got it despite Tyrone losing the final by a point
2003 when Stevie McDonnell got it despite Armagh losing the final by 3 points
2010 when Bernard Brogan got it despite the fact that Dublin didn't get to the final [I'd imagine he was helped massively by how poor the final was and the fact that there wasn't any standout candidates among the two finalist]

Basically 85% of the time the winner of the FOTY comes from the All-Ireland winning team.

Like a lot of the All-Stars, who will get it will will depend a huge amount on who performs in the next 2 games.

The current Paddypower odds are as follows.

Footballer of the Year

David Moran 11/10
Diarmuid Connolly 2/1
Aidan O'Shea 3/1
Bernard Brogan 15/2
Jack McCaffrey 10/1
James O'Donoghue 12/1
Colm Cooper 16/1
Cillian O'Connor 16/1
Ciaran Kilkenny 16/1
Lee Keegan 20/1
Paul Flynn 40/1
Paul Geaney 50/1
Keith Higgins 50/1
Michael D MacAuley 80/1
Kieran Donaghy 100/1
James McCarthy 100/1
Cian O'Sullivan 100/1
Philip McMahon 100/1

Shurimgreat

I'd give it to Sean Quigley.

Was David Moran not taken off against Tyrone?

ProudDUB

I know eff all about betting, but are 2/1 and 11/10 not virtually the same thing?

Bad form to be having Philly Mc so low down near the bottom.

keane2097

ProudDUB wrote: »

I know eff all about betting, but are 2/1 and 11/10 not virtually the same thing?

Bad form to be having Philly Mc so low down near the bottom.

Notionally, 2/1 is 33% chance of winning while 10/11 is around 48%.

These markets don't exactly work that way but you get the idea.

Dirty Dingus McGee

Boom__Boom wrote: »

2010 when Bernard Brogan got it despite the fact that Dublin didn't get to the final [I'd imagine he was helped massively by how poor the final was and the fact that there wasn't any standout candidates among the two finalist]

Martin Clarke was top class for Down that year and the final was a pretty decent game in my opinion.

He got it because his performances in 2010 was probably the greatest year a forward has had in the last 20 years.

He was unbelievably good that year in what was essentially a 1 man forward line.

His performance against Cork in the semi final is one of the all time great individual performances

ProudDUB

keane2097 wrote: »

Notionally, 2/1 is 33% chance of winning while 10/11 is around 48%.

These markets don't exactly work that way but you get the idea.

Ta. I'm one of those annoying people who only ever darkens a bookies door during the Grand National.

Nib

Shurimgreat wrote: »

I'd give it to Sean Quigley.

Was David Moran not taken off against Tyrone?

Sean Quigley was taken off against Westmeath.

The_Honeybadger

Shurimgreat wrote: »

I'd give it to Sean Quigley.

Was David Moran not taken off against Tyrone?

He was carrying an injury going in to the game in fairness to him. He has been immense this year up to the Tyrone game, where he was still ok but not at his usual level. If Kerry win the final and he has a good game he's nailed on for poty.

I'm struggling to think of another stand out performer so far, maybe o'shea, the winner will certainly come from one of Kerry, Mayo or Dublin. Depends what happens in the upcoming replay and final.

Padkir

Bit disappointed not to hear any mention of Tom Parsons; think he has had an excellent year. Big game in the replay and he could be a latecomer to the party, unless O'Shea bags a couple of goals! :P

Shurimgreat

Under the radar players like Parsons, Donacha Walsh and Johnnie Buckley generally don't get it, even though they often contribute far more than the star players.

At a guess, I'd say Man of the Match in the AI final will also get footballer of the year, as its been that kind of year where no player has lit up the championship as happened in previous years. There's been no-one head and shoulders above the rest.

ProudDUB

Very hard for a player to get it, if he hasn't already got at least one year under his belt, playing very well, in the biggest games, at the very highest level in Croke Park. Outside of Mayo, who has really heard of Tom Parsons up to now? I know that sounds rather elitist and snooty, but I am looking at it from the voters pov, not my own.

Disagree that the AI final Man of The Match will automatically be the Footballer of the Year. If Dublin win the AI final, there is just a much chance that a Brian Fenton or a John Small could win the Man of The Match award, as there is one of the bigger name players getting it. All Ireland finals can throw up unlikely heros like that. Just look at Kevin Nolan getting it in 2011. Same goes for Kerry and Mayo players too.

Padkir

ProudDUB wrote: »

Very hard for a player to get it if he hasn't already got at least one year under his belt in playing very well, in the big games, at the very highest level. Outside of Mayo, who has really heard of Tom Parsons up to now? I know that sounds rather elitist and snooty, but I am looking at it from the voters pov, not my own.

You're probably not far off the mark there, but it is ridiculous. It's player of the year, not player of the last 2/3 years.

Poor_old_gill

Shurimgreat wrote: »

I'd give it to Sean Quigley.

Was David Moran not taken off against Tyrone?

Had a hamstring injury coming into the match so it was more of a surprise that he played

ProudDUB

Padkir wrote: »

You're probably not far off the mark there, but it is ridiculous. It's player of the year, not player of the last 2/3 years

True. But the voters are the players. They may not have seen all the games. If you spent the summer in the US after your own county got knocked out & you are filling out your ballot....who are you going to vote for? The player with the big reputation, from previous years, or the lad you've never heard of, or seen play?

Mr. Incognito

ProudDUB wrote: »

Ta. I'm one of those annoying people who only ever darkens a bookies door during the Grand National.

If you replace the backslash with "for" if makes sens

11 FOR 10, means 11 Euro back for every tenner bet.

9/4 means 9 Euro for every four bet.

(Plus your stake off course)

Sorry for the off topic post

DDC1990

Just for the record I'm starting the Donnacha Walsh for Player of the Year campaign now.

Anyone who wants to get on board the bandwagon, before he wins MOTM in the All Ireland Final, and goes on to win POTY is welcome.

Fr Tod Umptious

DDC1990 wrote: »

Just for the record I'm starting the Donnacha Walsh for Player of the Year campaign now.

Anyone who wants to get on board the bandwagon, before he wins MOTM in the All Ireland Final, and goes on to win POTY is welcome.

I'm in.

Fantastic player, and has been for years.

Would be great to see him win it after an amazing but ultimately unsuccessful performance for Kerry v Mayo in the All Ireland Final.

ProudDUB

I hope you're not not plonking down any of your hard earned cash on that campaign. Off the top of my head, none of the AI final Man of The Match winners from the last 5 years, went on to win the Footballer of the Year gong too. I'd say if you turned on your Google machine and went down thru the entire list of both awards, you'd have to go back a while to find a player who won both in the same year.

Poor_old_gill

Just to play devils advocate- Michael Lundy has to be in with a shout surely?
Connolly was pushed mainly last year due to his club championship performances

FatRat

If Mayo win, O'Shea will get it.

If Kerry win, Moran will get it.

If Dublin win, after Connolly's display the last day, it could be any of him, Brogan, Kilkenny or McCaferey that will get it.

I think it's as simple as that. Paddy Power know their stuff and have gone into 11/10 for Moran to win because they know if Kerry win the AI, he'll get it 9 times out of 10. (They have Kerry priced at 5/6 and Moran is only 11/10 so go figure!) Similarly O'Shea is 10/3 to win POTY while Mayo are 3/1 to win the All-Ireland. Odds on the Dublin players have been changing dramatically lately so I think if Dublin win it, it depends on the performances of the players I mentioned above in the next few games. The thing to note here though (and I should probably post this in Gambling forum) is that Boyles have Moran priced at 7/4 for POTY. This, to me, is essentially offering 7/4 for Kerry to win the AI as opposed to the average price of 1/1 that they're at now!

galwaylad14

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

Just to play devils advocate- Michael Lundy has to be in with a shout surely?
Connolly was pushed mainly last year due to his club championship performances

You name your price on Michael Lundy and I'll take the bet off you. Any price you like.

D9Male

Four players have stood out for me. Keegan and AOS for Mayo. Maher and Moran for Kerry. But Keegan and Maher don't get the press.

I think Dublin will win the AI Final. And I think Kilkenny is on fire. So at the odds, he strikes me as the bet.

KeepTheFaith

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

Martin Clarke was top class for Down that year and the final was a pretty decent game in my opinion.

He got it because his performances in 2010 was probably the greatest year a forward has had in the last 20 years.

He was unbelievably good that year in what was essentially a 1 man forward line.

His performance against Cork in the semi final is one of the all time great individual performances

I don't know about that now, the pressure came on Dublin in that game and Bernard lost the head and hit a hail mary shot from out on the left wing when the game was in the melting pot. A shot he should never have been going for. Cork went on to win the game. He was outstanding in 2010 but you're going way over the top with some of the above.

Dirty Dingus McGee

KeepTheFaith wrote: »

I don't know about that now, the pressure came on Dublin in that game and Bernard lost the head and hit a hail mary shot from out on the left wing when the game was in the melting pot. A shot he should never have been going for. Cork went on to win the game. He was outstanding in 2010 but you're going way over the top with some of the above.

He was unbelievable that year.I can't think of a forward who had such a good year in all my time watching football (since the mid nineties) and he was the only really high quality forward Dublin had that year when they played a defensive system.He was basically a one man attack at times.

Poor_old_gill

Brogan seems to be disliked because he is hyped up so much/on so much media coverage but he really is a superb player.

Watch any game he plays and he is marked by 2 men and still manages to score- his balance is awesome and his ability to kick scores while falling over with lads hanging out of him is top class.

I know that sounds a bit over the top but I rate him phenomenally highly and don't understand all the derision he gets/ how people view Connolly as being better