Price Changes 2015/2016

8-10 · 20-08-2015 6:29am

Coates survives! What a hero

Colking · 20-08-2015 6:31am

8-10 wrote: »

Coates survives! What a hero

Damn his oily hide !!

I took a hit on Monday swapping him for Richards as I was sure he would drop, that'll show me

8-10 · 20-08-2015 7:22am

I'm still yet to have a player drop. He's the closest

FHFC · 20-08-2015 7:37am

Fpls (who are in "learning mode) seem to have adjusted their calculations quite a bit after the rises/falls last night. Silva and Gomis were 100+ last night now in the mid 80s. Coates back to -91 having been well over.

Necronomicon · 20-08-2015 7:52am

8-10 wrote: »

I'm still yet to have a player drop. He's the closest

Same here. I've been tempted to shift him out but I'm already on -4, and really don't want to take another hit for the sake of 0.1 (granted, could have been a 0.2 swing if I replaced him with Richards, but still). Really just need to get to the weekend and hope that there aren't more pressing transfers after the GW.

FHFC wrote: »

Fpls (who are in "learning mode) seem to have adjusted their calculations quite a bit after the rises/falls last night. Silva and Gomis were 100+ last night now in the mid 80s. Coates back to -91 having been well over.

Bentaleb has also dropped from >100 to 87% towards a drop. Another one I need to hang on! Huth seems to have stayed the same, around mid -70s.

8-10 · 20-08-2015 8:29am

Necronomicon wrote: »

Same here. I've been tempted to shift him out but I'm already on -4, and really don't want to take another hit for the sake of 0.1

I'm managed to not take any hits or play the wildcard yet. Just my 2FTs and nobody has dropped yet. Definitely not going to take a hit for 0.1

Coates will be the first though. He'll go down tomorrow for sure if not tonight. Hope he scores at the weekend now!

AdpRo · 20-08-2015 8:38am

FHFC wrote: »

Fpls (who are in "learning mode) seem to have adjusted their calculations quite a bit after the rises/falls last night. Silva and Gomis were 100+ last night now in the mid 80s. Coates back to -91 having been well over.

How is YaYa looking? Any chance he will get the 2nd rise before Silva increases? Can't get on any of the sites in work to check myself!

OneColdHand · 20-08-2015 8:40am

Just the 4 of my midfielders at -72% or more to a drop! :eek:

20-08-2015 8:57am

AdpRo wrote: »

How is YaYa looking? Any chance he will get the 2nd rise before Silva increases? Can't get on any of the sites in work to check myself!

Yaya 84.7
Silva 88.2

iroced · 20-08-2015 9:05am

8-10 wrote: »

Nope, more difficult. I think you missed my point

Think you missed mine too

.

8-10 wrote: »

I'm still in the opposite camp, I fully agree that the playing field should be leveled, but I think FPL should do it by making it harder for 3rd party sites to get the data.

There is no reason that they should publish NTI and NTO information if they don't want people figuring out the algorithm. If they want to level the playing field, don't publish the data. Simple. Then we're all in the same boat and we're all making our transfers for the more genuine reasons of picking players based on form and fixtures rather than the fear of price rises/drops

I was responding to this simple. And I rest my case: no price changes = more simple.

If I understand correctly what you wish is that we can't have access anymore to the Net Transfers In/Out for the season and for each round? Correct? Do you realise the implications for us? Wouldn't it be really unfair in the sense that players would see movements in and out but we'd have no idea about them? Is this really the game you want? You say we'd all be "in the same boat and we're all making our transfers for the more genuine reasons of picking players based on form and fixtures rather than the fear of price rises/drops". Isn't it a bit utopian? I mean what if you're priced out because you didn't expect a few critical rises/drops to allow your "genuine" transfer? You'd make a "genuine-default" transfer? Or no transfer? And when does your "genuine" transfer become completely default? Is this really the game you want?

I'm not having a dig at you at all but if the italic part I quoted from you is the ideal game for you, don't you think the "no price changes at all" policy would be the only system to guarantee you that?

Ziegler1988 · 20-08-2015 9:26am

8-10 wrote: »

Coates survives! What a hero

His ownership is something like 17k, so it only takes 1.7k to transfer out for a drop. However, if a lot of those are on a wild card he may just survive

menoscemo · 20-08-2015 9:54am

Well at least I have now got a double rise from Mahrez. Hopefully a few more before Saturday....

CSF · 20-08-2015 10:06am

menoscemo wrote: »

Well at least I have now got a double rise from Mahrez. Hopefully a few more before Saturday....

Will you keep him though?

menoscemo · 20-08-2015 10:38am

CSF wrote: »

Will you keep him though?

Yeah I probably will. He seems essential at his price for now as a 4th/5th midfielder.

dahat · 20-08-2015 10:45am

menoscemo wrote: »

Yeah I probably will. He seems essential at his price for now as a 4th/5th midfielder.

I will have to sell him and go for Albrighton instead, not the worst scenario but still worries me a little.

AdpRo · 20-08-2015 10:46am

Deleted User wrote: »

Yaya 84.7
Silva 88.2

Doesn't look like we will get the 2nd rise from YaYa before Silva rises unfortunately.

jimmii · 20-08-2015 10:48am

Yaya is trying to close the gap a little now (85.1) on Silva (88.4).

PARlance · 20-08-2015 11:44am

Nono, having given up on Yaya getting to 0.2 before Silva got his first, I decided that I would just stick it out with Yaya and all my planning has had him in my team....
If the opportunity arises where I can cash in on him, I would be tempted to do so and swap over to Silva....

Amazing what 0.1 can do to my plans

Daftness

menoscemo · 20-08-2015 11:51am

I got Yaya in the WC and got a 0.1 rise but swapped him for Silva earlier in the week for fear Silva would rise before Yaya's 2nd. I really hope silva rises before Yaya or at the very least at the same time!

8-10 · 20-08-2015 12:48pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

His ownership is something like 17k, so it only takes 1.7k to transfer out for a drop. However, if a lot of those are on a wild card he may just survive

Doubt it, majority of transfers will be tomorrow night so I'd expect him to drop.

FrClintPower · 20-08-2015 12:50pm

menoscemo wrote: »

I got Yaya in the WC and got a 0.1 rise but swapped him for Silva earlier in the week for fear Silva would rise before Yaya's 2nd. I really hope silva rises before Yaya or at the very least at the same time!

Me too, although I wish I'd thought of FHFC's (I think) strategy, wait until Yaya gains .2, buy Silva at 10.1 and then at least Silva's resale value would be 10.1 rather than 10. Would be very handy for those of us who see Silva -> Hazard as a potential move if he becomes a necessity.

8-10 · 20-08-2015 12:52pm

iroced wrote: »

Think you missed mine too .

I was responding to this simple. And I rest my case: no price changes = more simple.

I meant that it's a simple action for them to take. I want the game harder, not easier. And I want there to be less of a difference between casuals and less-casuals. And I still want price changes for more popular players.

(I'm not going to get any of this mind!)

8-10 · 20-08-2015 12:57pm

iroced wrote: »

Isn't it a bit utopian? I mean what if you're priced out because you didn't expect a few critical rises/drops to allow your "genuine" transfer? You'd make a "genuine-default" transfer? Or no transfer? And when does your "genuine" transfer become completely default? Is this really the game you want?

This is the game. It's the 3rd party sites that came in and changed it by trying to predict the algorithm. So that's the issue I'd be trying to stop. Price rises were already happening before the likes of FISO etc came along. You talk about it as if it's part of FPL, it's not, if it was then the % to a rise/drop would be on the FPL site. I just don't think they're doing enough to stop these 3rd parties doing the predicting

Neamhshuntasach · 20-08-2015 1:00pm

I reckon Silve and Yaya will both go up tomorrow. Yaya will probably end up with the higher number of transfers as people tempted by having more money available go for him. Pity Yaya isn't close the 100% now.

Ziegler1988 · 20-08-2015 1:04pm

8-10 wrote: »

Doubt it, majority of transfers will be tomorrow night so I'd expect him to drop.

I expect him too as well, although I doubt too many people will be using FT or -4s on him

8-10 · 20-08-2015 1:46pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

I expect him too as well, although I doubt too many people will be using FT or -4s on him

They're welcome to, won't matter once he pops up with this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EEiro08kxM

He's due :P

Colking · 20-08-2015 2:00pm

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

I reckon Silve and Yaya will both go up tomorrow. Yaya will probably end up with the higher number of transfers as people tempted by having more money available go for him. Pity Yaya isn't close the 100% now.

Don't you worry about YaYa

iroced · 20-08-2015 2:20pm

8-10 wrote: »

This is the game. It's the 3rd party sites that came in and changed it by trying to predict the algorithm. So that's the issue I'd be trying to stop. Price rises were already happening before the likes of FISO etc came along. You talk about it as if it's part of FPL, it's not, if it was then the % to a rise/drop would be on the FPL site. I just don't think they're doing enough to stop these 3rd parties doing the predicting

Well I haven't experienced the game before FISO time so I can't compare. But I'm not sure I get what you mean by "making it harder". What kind of data should they hide?

I mean we all have access to NTI & NTO for each round and for the season. That's what FISO were using. Total players, ownership is also available. And FISO were using these too. For all the guesstimating (weighting factors for second and treble price changes, recent no WC included in calculations) they got it by the try and error method, analysing what was needed for and how players rose and dropped. Same goes for protection after flag removal. Same goes for NTO adjustment when red flagged, etc...

So, do you mean the NTI/O in/out, total players & ownership figures were not available in the early years of the game?

FHFC · 20-08-2015 2:22pm

FrClintPower wrote: »

Me too, although I wish I'd thought of FHFC's (I think) strategy, wait until Yaya gains .2, buy Silva at 10.1 and then at least Silva's resale value would be 10.1 rather than 10. Would be very handy for those of us who see Silva -> Hazard as a potential move if he becomes a necessity.

It was too risky i felt in the end. There's a small but significant chance Yaya wouldn't rise again on Friday night then you'd have lost 0.1

Currently have Kolarov and Silva who will both be staying.

ElTel · 20-08-2015 2:44pm

Still trying to get a "feel" for price changes.
Example Rooney
Total no. in game 3.25M
Owned by 34.8% which is 1.1M approx.
Transfers out this gameweek 221007.
So 221007/(1.1M + 221007) = 0.167
16% of owners have transferred him this week and his price remains unchanged!!!!
How many weeks does it usually take for the stat/algoritihm guys to start reliably predicting the price changes.
Just started referring to these prediction sites this year and feel they will help my game.

iroced · 20-08-2015 2:47pm

ElTel wrote: »

Still trying to get a "feel" for price changes.
Example Rooney
Total no. in game 3.25M
Owned by 34.8% which is 1.1M approx.
Transfers out this gameweek 221007.
So 221007/(1.1M + 221007) = 0.167
16% of owners have transferred him this week and his price remains unchanged!!!!
How many weeks does it usually take for the stat/algoritihm guys to start reliably predicting the price changes.
Just started referring to these prediction sites this year and feel they will help my game.

The problem is Rooney was probably taken out by 80% WCers, i.e. 80% of his transfers out would not count.

ElTel · 20-08-2015 2:54pm

iroced wrote: »

The problem is Rooney was probably taken out by 80% WCers, i.e. 80% of his transfers out would not count.

I get you....I think
If say 300k wildcards used this week 100k will include Rooney. (Approx using the 34.4%)
So of the 221k transfers this week 100k don't count in the price change calculation?

Benimar · 20-08-2015 3:00pm

ElTel wrote: »

I get you....I think
If say 300k wildcards used this week 100k will include Rooney. (Approx using the 34.4%)
So of the 221k transfers this week 100k don't count in the price change calculation?

You have the idea ok, but I'd say the WC transfers are more than 100k out of 221k. For anyone not WCing it may be worth keeping Rooney for the Newcastle game, but anyone on a WC will have to look beyond that one fixture so are more likely to drop him.

I'd say iroced might not be too far off with his 80% estimate.

ElTel · 20-08-2015 3:03pm

Benimar wrote: »

You have the idea ok, but I'd say the WC transfers are more than 100k out of 221k. For anyone not WCing it may be worth keeping Rooney for the Newcastle game, but anyone on a WC will have to look beyond that one fixture so are more likely to drop him.

I'd say iroced might not be too far off with his 80% estimate.

Will start keeping a running total of Wildcards used.

ElTel · 20-08-2015 3:40pm

If Rooney is in 33% of teams it is unlikely he is involved in 80% of wildcards or am I missing something

Western Pomise · 20-08-2015 3:45pm

So do people reckon it looks like wild cards are not affecting price changes this year?

Ziegler1988 · 20-08-2015 3:46pm

ElTel wrote: »

If Rooney is in 33% of teams it is unlikely he is involved in 80% of wildcards or am I missing something

I think people are saying that 80% of the people that have transferred out Rooney thus far are on wild cards. I'm sure he'll drop tomorrow night, I just hope he won't go 0.2 before Sunday

ElTel · 20-08-2015 3:54pm

Western Pomise wrote: »

So do people reckon it looks like wild cards are not affecting price changes this year?

Yes. Was it different in previous years?

iroced · 20-08-2015 3:54pm

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

I think people are saying that 80% of the people that have transferred out Rooney thus far are on wild cards.

Exactly what I meant :cool:.

The irony is I'm not on WC and I transferred him out :pac:.

iroced · 20-08-2015 3:55pm

Western Pomise wrote: »

So do people reckon it looks like wild cards are not affecting price changes this year?

It is a certainty now. If it wasn't the case we'd have seen a hell of a lot more price rises (and drops) this week!

ElTel wrote: »

Yes. Was it different in previous years?

Yes. This only started last year.

ElTel · 20-08-2015 3:59pm

iroced wrote: »

It is a certainty now. If it wasn't the case we'd have seen a hell of a lot more price rises (and drops) this week!

Yes. This only started last year.

How did the prediction sites get on last year?
Did they get better as season went on as you would expect?

CSF · 20-08-2015 4:02pm

Pedro a midfielder at 9.5

iroced · 20-08-2015 4:06pm

ElTel wrote: »

How did the prediction sites get on last year?
Did they get better as season went on as you would expect?

Yes they did but they always struggled during big WC weeks, which may not be the cas ethis year in the second part of the season with the removal of the January WC. FPLS dealt with it better. They were asking users to give their FPL ID when WC had been used so that they could factor it in.

iroced · 20-08-2015 4:09pm

CSF wrote: »

Pedro a midfielder at 9.5

If he explodes like we all hope he can, we won't have to worry too much about Hazard price tag :cool:.

Though I feel he'd have been a better option at United.

Iused2likebusts · 20-08-2015 4:21pm

CSF wrote: »

Pedro a midfielder at 9.5

Interesting .5 dearer than I expected now to work out if he is worth it.

dahat · 20-08-2015 4:23pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Interesting .5 dearer than I expected now to work out if he is worth it.

What he might do is take a few Hazard owners away while under wildcard. Fully expect Hazard % to drop a bit now.

menoscemo · 20-08-2015 4:28pm

FrClintPower wrote: »

Me too, although I wish I'd thought of FHFC's (I think) strategy, wait until Yaya gains .2, buy Silva at 10.1 and then at least Silva's resale value would be 10.1 rather than 10. Would be very handy for those of us who see Silva -> Hazard as a potential move if he becomes a necessity.

Agreed but I chickened out. I feared Silva rising and yaya not getting a second rise before the deadline

FrClintPower · 20-08-2015 4:39pm

FHFC wrote: »

It was too risky i felt in the end. There's a small but significant chance Yaya wouldn't rise again on Friday night then you'd have lost 0.1

Currently have Kolarov and Silva who will both be staying.

Yeah, I have them both too, and might have played it safe as well. But still annoyed with myself for not even thinking it through. One to bear in mind for the early panicky wildcard in 2016/2017!

DarraghF197 · 20-08-2015 5:26pm

Ritchie looks really close to dropping again. He would be such a bargain at 5.8M. I hope he goes down before Saturday morning so I can place him in my wild card team!

CSF · 20-08-2015 6:00pm

DarraghF197 wrote: »

Ritchie looks really close to dropping again. He would be such a bargain at 5.8M. I hope he goes down before Saturday morning so I can place him in my wild card team!

To put it into better perspective, that's more expensive than Mahrez until they eventually intersect. 5.8 for a player at a club who haven't managed a goal in their first 2 games and look destined for relegation isn't a bargain for me. It's grand enough but we are talking about a guy here who hasn't a Premier League goal or assist to his name (unless someone corrects me that he did manage one in his brief previous spell).

What are we expecting from Ritchie? More than Sigurdsson tallied last season? That was a bargain at the equivalent starting price.

Price Changes 2015/2016

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